Mumbai Haze….Abnormal and Historic Pollution…blamed on sandstorms in Rajasthan and Dust Haze sweeping in from Saudi Arabia

 

Mumbai Marine Drive Haze...more than normal

 

 Wednesday Morning 10 am,March 21,2012…Marine Drive,Mumbai….The Haze was simply overwhelming that I had to click it !….Haze~Daze~Maze ! That’s Mumbai for you !

….and this morning even Times of India has covered it 

 ….two reasons given….sandstorm in Rajasthan…and dust storms in the Middle East….Dust haze across North India is being sourced to Saudi Arabia ……was blown by the south westerly winds into Northern India

Pollution has increased 500% !….MET calls this a phenomenon…Suspended Particulate Matter in the air has increased manifold from 200 units to 1200 units per cubic meter!…causing breathlessness and coughing…this sort of heavy SPM is historic and never witnessed before….even those not affected with respiratory ailments soon were !…. visibility was very poor…trains approaching the platform wree barely visible….I could barely see 50 metres ahead as I drove on Marine Drive

Thankfully the Pollution Control and MET say that the SPM should dissipate in 24 hours

Phew !

Watch Son ,Composer and Rhythm Guitarist,Varun Parikh performing with his Band Xylophobia Live in Pune this evening through Live Internet Stream

Watch Son , Composer and Rhythm Guitarist,Varun Parikh performing with his Band, Xylophobia Live in Pune this evening at 8 pm through Live Internet Stream

The Link is http://www.ustream.tv/channel/events-i2it

They are the Headbanging Band and will perform for 90 minutes at Dhruva 2012,the Annual Fest of  I2IT…International Institute of Information Technolgy in Pune

Cheers !   

PETRONET LNG @ Rs 162…this is the Company I was referrring to, Anand,Rohit and Kishor

Hi Anand,Rohit and Kishor…..I was’nt referring to Essar Oil in the earlier Blog….the Company that I have in mind is PETRONET LNG @ Rs 162…It’s IPO was in early 2004 at Rs 15 and got listed at Rs 16.50…at the time the then MD and CEO ,Mr Mathur and Director Finance,Mr Dasgupta has asserted strongly that after 5 years the Company would take on a different momentum after Terminals and Capacities went on stream fully….they were fully right !…the Company has been promoted by India’s leading Oil and Gas PSUs…GAIL,ONGC,Indian Oil and BPCL …It imports LNG largely from Ras Gas ,Qatar by Specialised LNG Shipping Carriers  and regasifies it at it’s Dahej and Kochi Terminals for distribution largely through a strong Pipeline Network…It’s a Capital Intensive Business with a fairly long Gestation Period…and requires strong Domain Technical and Operating Expertise and a robust Distribution Infrastructure…explains why it is a PSU promoted by other PSUs  

PETRONET LNG

 

IPO Rs 13-Rs 15 ~ Price Fixed Rs 15 ~March  2004

 Size Rs 26 crs ~ Oversubscribed 4.2 Times

 

SHARE  PRICE TREND ON THE BSE 2004-2012

 

Year

Open
Price

High
Price

Low
Price

Close
Price

 
 

2004

16.50

33.25

14.45

31.35

 

2005

31.80

71.90

31.60

65.95

 

2006

66.40

68.50

35.50

48.20

 

2007

48.50

117.50

41.15

107.30

 

2008

108.90

121.90

29.65

39.60

 

2009

40.00

82.40

31.60

71.65

 

2010

72.00

131.30

69.00

124.95

 

2011

126.00

185.85

105.10

155.80

 

2012

157.75

179.75

150.50

161.70

 

 Last Year in 2011 while Sensex retreated 25%,PETRONET LNG was up smartly from end 2010 levels of Rs 125 to close 2011 at levels of Rs 150 + after recording it’s alltime high of Rs 186 in the year

The huge shortage of gas in India has prompted the company to fast track the Dahej Expansion to 15 Million Tonnes by not waiting for the Storage Tanks to come up,but focuisng to get the marine and regasification facilities up first…Storage Tanks take upto three and a half years to four years to be up while the regasification unit can be set up in Two years as too the Jetty….These new expansion facilities should be ready mid 2013….With 15 Million Tonnes Capacity the Dahej Terminal will be the second largest in the world …the largest with a capacity of 17 million tonnes is in the UK

Domestic Gas Shortage has two clear reasons

~ Falling Production from Reliance’s KG-D6 field

~Surge in Demand from Power and Fertiliser Sectors

By 2015,India’s LNG regasification capacity would be 30 Million Tonnes,up from just 13 Million currently….PETRONET LNG would have 15 Million capacity at Dahej and 5 Million capacity at Kochi…. Around 75% of the demand is from The Power Sector,followed by Fertilser and then City Gas and Others 

The Financials are also pretty robust….The Dividend record extends to five years now with it being raised to 20% in FY 2011,when the Sales crossed Rs 13000 crs and the PAT was the highest ever @ Rs 620 crs giving an EPS of Rs 8+on an Equity of Rs 750 crs (FV Rs 10)….Networth was Rs 2700 crs at March 31,2011 and should cross Rs 3200 crs in FY 12 

read more

“What Indian stocks should we be buying or selling ?”

“What stocks should we be buying or selling ?” 

Have been queried this more often in the past month or two, especially after 2012 opened with a bang and Sensex and Nifty began their 2012 Journey as if to conquer new peaks soon as record FII Inflows packed a punch ! 

Overnight,as in any Bull run,the equity and derivative advisory websites and emailers began to come out of the woodwork like worms….”Make Money in a Day”….”We are always right”…”We earned our clients this and that in this and that strategy in stocks and indices”….the advice basis and approach could be fundamental or technical…such claims and boasts from such sites bombard your email box daily from all over India…Noida,Gurgaon, Bangalore,Hyderabad,Ahmedabad,Chandigarh,Kolkata,Chennai…and ofcourse Mumbai …you have to deal with these in addition to the plethora of Experts humming away contrasting and contradictory opinions on Stock Channels….Try Ignoring them….you’ll become wiser….Equity is Risky but never Boring ! 

What comes to my mind is the classic song from ‘Mera Naam Joker’…… “Aye Bhai Zara Dekh kay Chalo…aage bhi nahi,peeche bhi,uppar bhi nahin neeche bhi…Aye Bhai ! ” …and quite comically too another classic song from the same movie retorts back to me ” Jeena Yaha ,Marna Yaha,Uske Siva Jaana Kaha !…”  ….that’s the addiction of Stock Markets !

A Rational and Sensible Approach is that if you missed the early Jan and Feb run,don’t get seduced to get in now on a top down approach and play the Sensitive Indices,whether Sensex or Nifty ,or even Sector Indices like the Bank Nifty or any other….be very selective….it increasingly is a bottoms up market and Indications are that the Sensex will remain rangebound between 15000 and 19000 this year

Yeah ! am sure you want to tap into my Selections !…Oil & Gas Sector Scrips have been hit with Subsidy burdens and additional cess pressure (Rs 4500/t from Rs 2500/t earlier) from this Budget 2012….but there is one Company that is expanding vigorously to take advantage of rising prices….I had interacted strongly with top management a few years ago….it became a good multibagger over the years….it now is positioning itself to become the world’s second largest capacity at a single place…need to interact with them again     

read more

India beat Pakistan and Sri Lanka but yet is out of the Asia Cup as deserving Bangladesh beat Sri Lanka for the right to play Pakistan in their first Asia Cup Final…Sachin Tendulkar,any comments ?

India beat Pakistan and Sri Lanka but yet is out of the Asia Cup as deserving Bangladesh beat Sri Lanka for the right to play Pakistan in their first Asia Cup Final…Sachin Tendulkar,any comments ?

Hosts Bangladesh has played a brilliant  Asia Cup…nearly won against Pakistan,beat India and just now knocked out Sri Lanka….and deservedly won the right to play Pakistan in the Final on Thursday

Sri Lanka lost all three matches,while India,Pakistan,and Hosts Bangladesh won two each…Pakistan topped the table with 9 points that included a Bonus while Bangladesh and India are on 8 points each with Sri Lanka not opening their account

Bangladesh by virtue of beating India gained entry to their first Asian Cup Final

India must now be rueing their luck…and must have been on their way to the Airport to return even as the Bangladesh and Sri Lanka  Match had yet to finish !

That feeling comes back strongly…….that I blogged on March 16,2012 when  Sachin Tendulkar got his 100th Ton but yet India lost to Bangladesh ….Bangladesh chased a target successfully with just four balls remaining….of Sachin slowing down to a strike rate of 45%  as he approached his 100th Ton…when he was on a strike rate of 84%….to me ,it cost us the match !….and today we find that India has beaten both Pakistan and Sri Lanka and yet  don’t play the Asia Cup Final as it lost to Bangladesh and thus got edged out !….Sachin Tendulkar,any comments !?….I found columnist  Sumit Chakraberty of DNA echoing the same sentiment in the Sunday Edition of March 18,2012

Can we please not reduce cricket to WWF?

My earlier full blog post is below and the relevant extract from that is also reproduced below…..My Wife,like I daresay most Indians,disagrees with me and thinks it is natural to slow down as the century approaches and why single out just Sachin! …agree,but in the context of  what transpired in the match,it cost us the game and a place in the Final….Mind You ,we all are great Sachin Fans…he’s a Mumbaikar too !….remember the way he singlehandedly blasted Australian bowlers,dancing down the wicket to Shane Warne to loft him for sixes, to score two back to back Centuries in the Sharjah ODIs !  

Sachiiiiin ! Sachin !…Sachiiiiin ! Sachin !….gets his 100th international cricket ton finally today

Friday, March 16th, 2012

Relevant Extract

….but what everyone seems to overlook is at his strike rate statistics breakup in today’s loss….he had scored 81 of 96 Balls …that is a superb strike rate of 84+%…his average in ODIs is a fabulous 86%….then he inexplicably slowed down considerably….his next 19 runs came of 42 balls to give him his century in 138 balls….his strike rate nearly halved to just 45+% !…inexcusable !….seems he was playing safe to ensure his century….especially after he came close to doing so in Mumbai…..finally  he was out scoring 114 of 146 balls…which means his last 14 runs after he scored 100 came of just 8 balls !…that’s a strike rate of 175% !….if you consider that Bangladesh achieved the target with just 4 balls to spare you can not help but feel that Sachin’s slowing down after 81 till he reached his century contributed to the loss….that is his scoring just 19 of 42 balls …..he could have scored another 20 odd runs ….it was even in and around the batting powerplay 

read more

“Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs”….Greg Smith,Executive Director and Head of Equity Derivatives Business in Europe,Middle East and Africa

Wall Street or Dalal Street…This egrerious culture and mindset of making money…anyhow….is the common factor 

Goldman Sachs always remains in the news ~ and this time ,like again and again in recent years, for the wrong reasons

“Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs”….Greg Smith,Executive Director and Head of Equity Derivatives Business in Europe,Middle East and Africa

On March 14,2012,New York Times carried this oped by Greg Smith announcing his resignation….impactful way of  communicating your resignation…Market Cap of Goldman Sachs dropped over US $ 2 Billion post this oped  

You can read it all here in NY Times  ……don’t forget to read the interesting responses too

By an arrangement ,Economic Times too carried the piece  in their edition of March 15,2012…you can access this in Economic Times here  

Earlier in 2011,another Goldman Sachs Employee,Antonio left too citing similar sentiment as Greg Smith…I had blogged on this as below

“Quants were the eunuchs at the orgy”….loved this one from Antonio,ex Goldman Sachs!

Monday, June 27th, 2011

Antonio called Goldman Sachs the “World’s largest bookie” and regreted he had not made the switch earlier out of Goldman Sachs 

Am sure legendary living Investor Guru,Warren Buffett will not agree with Greg Smith….for Warren Buffett invested heavily in Goldman Sachs in September 2008….in my opinion actually bailed them out in immediately tough Post Lehman debacle times…I had blogged on this earlier in  

Did Value Investor and Living Investment Legend, Warren Buffett, invest US $ 5 Billion in Goldman Sachs in September 2008 for reasons other than Value !?

Thursday, December 4th, 2008

In India too it’s no different…a few years ago having been invited to a Capital Markets Seminar organised by one of the big Four Accounting and Auditing Firms, and as I was entering I overheard their Senior Partner,who too had arrived just before me, quipping to his Executive ” Got enough Bakras today “…..Suckers,he meant !…..Greg Smith reveals how Goldman Sachs Managing Directors often referred clients as ‘Muppets’

 …and this is precisely the reason I have stayed Independent…not aligning or joining up with any of the leading names in Indian Capital Markets in Investment or Merchant Banking,FIIs,Mutual Funds or even Broking Houses…so that I don’t have to deal or confront with likely situations of  daily house bias,prejudiced views,selfserving advisory,toeing the line, dictats,moral conflicts  etc….ofcourse Earnings and Driving Revenues remain key objectives…I have no issues on this as Business is not a charity…but Monies can be earned by providing a valuable and honest service to clients rather than by deliberate misselling or self serving advisory or hawking of less than Investment grade,Investments….greed and the need to meet targets often translates to operational and moral recklessness and improper and inapropriate advice and functioning that could cross the line into manipulation,fraud and deceit

read more