I Love FIFA World Cups….for more reasons than one!

Distinctly remember the Family excitement during the FIFA World Cup 2006 in Germany…. A leading Mumbai Tabloid was running a Daily SMS Contest on guessing the Winner in the Day’s matches… I have this habit of reading Mumbai’s two afternoon tabloids while having my lunch… and so I was on one Monday afternoon in June 2006…. June 19, 2006…. That day Spain was to play Tunisia and the contest was to guess who would win…. To take Chances is my Profession !… and I love entering such contests where you don’t have to exercise and stretch your Brain Cells and which does not taunt your IQ Level… and so reflexively I had send a sms that Spain would beat Tunisia that day and promptly forgot all about it… even saw the match till half time when Tunisia was leading 1-0….. next day Tuesday Morning I receive a wake up call on my mobile at 7 am !

Caller : ” Hello is this 98201…..?’

Me  (Yet to wake up  fully) :”Huh ?”

Caller :”Congratulations ! You’ve just won a 42 Inch Plasma TV in yesterday’s Contest!…..can you come to our office at 11 am for a photo shoot?”

Me (Still Sleepy): ” Contest ? ! It’s a bit too early…. can you please call later”

My wife : “Who was it ?”

Me (yet to sink in): “Somebody saying I won a 42 inch Plasma TV in a contest I entered yesterday”

Wife : “What !… and you told him to call later !…. you did not even give him your name !”

Me (now forced to wake up) : ”Must be a Joke”

Wife : “It’s not April the First and who would joke like this on a Tuesday morning!”

Anyway, it being a Tuesday, my wife and I vist the Siddhivinayak Temple in Prabhadevi in Mumbai and the Shrine of Infant Jesus and St Anthony at Worli…. It was past 9 am and we were driving towards the Temple when the Caller called again

” Sir, I had called you earlier this morning……”

To cut it short, despite down 0:1 at halftime, Spain had gone on to win the match against Tunisia 3:1 and this tabloid had pulled my mobile Number from over Eight lakh entries as the Lucky Winner !

How’s that for Luck and Probability !!!

As I was unable to go at 11 am for a photo shoot at their Parel Office, I send them my standard serious (wife thinks Glum ) face passport size colour photo by email… and I suppose all of you will say that a Wife is always right !

My Mom… she was alive at the time…. was outright disbelieving…. till I showed her my Photo as the Winner on the Front Page of the Wednesday, June 21, 2006 Edition that my office staff had already purchased several copies of before I reached office… Diwali Bonus, however remained at the same level that year !… A Scan of the the relevant section of the Front Page with my Photo is reproduced above

I was kicked…. as I was featured next to my favourite Bollywood Actress, Madhuri Dikshit nee Nene and below me was a cheering and gorgeous German Woman Football Fan with the name of the Popular German Footballer ’Ballack’ painted across her Bare Chest… The second Scan above is the original

Friends and Clients had called in to congratulate… apparently they too have the habit of reading afternoon tabloids !

As a kick, and it was a joint decision !, my ace multimedia professional wife removed the name ‘Ballack’ and inserted my name ‘Gaurav’ across the Woman Fan’s Chest and emailed it to all our friends !… It was Fun !… It’s the first scan above… You would be kicked too if you had been in my place !

However, I had to call the Tabloid several times  to force them to arrange the TV so I could view the Sunday Finals in July 2006 ! Since it was a Daily Contest for the whole Duration of the World Cup, it seems there were 30 Winners and therefore 30 TVs to be delivered… But my calls paid off… I got a call to collect the TV on  the Saturday just before the Sunday Finals.. only Two sets were ready for delivery and they were giving me one !

I told them that I was conducting an Intensive one day workshop on Equity Portfolio Structuring and Stock Analysis at the BSE Training Institute that Saturday, but could I send my wife, children and visiting nephews from overseas who were more excited and keen… ofcourse they said, as long as I send my Mobile for verification of the SMS and Number ! …… so while I was conducting the exclusive workshop at BSE, my family, five excited members, had gone to the Parel office, collected an authority letter and then marched to Big Bazaar to take delivery of a 42 Inch Plasma TV…. when I reached later that Night, my tech savvy kids and nephews had already assembled the TV and tuned it to the cable channels…. the technician actually came later after a few days…. we all watched the 2006 Finals on a 42 Inch Plasma Screen at Home

Touch Wood, four years to date, the 42 Inch Plasma is working just fine…. The Plasma Technology and the Wider Screen brings alive Movies, Music Videos, News, Sporting Events, Sitcoms, Comedy and Drama Serials and Reality Shows…. It’s become a Family member !

Two last points…..

…..We had offered to share our happiness with relatives and friends in that they could borrow the TV for weeks at a time to enjoy too… they were kind enough to decline !

…..There is always suspicion that such contests could be rigged… but my winning proved that atleast this Contest was genuine…. so every day, I had friends and family entering the Contest… in fact my elder sister would call me to ask who the winner would be for that day’s Contest Match!…… Alas, no one won any more TVs from Family or Friends !

Now I’m awaiting some Good Fortune in this 2010 FIFA World Cup too !…. Any Contest anyone know off that I can enter !?

If you think ‘Lucky’,you’ll get Lucky !… that’s a great positive Mantra to follow… Invest in this Theme !

Cheers !

Attending and Addressing a well organised South Asian Federation of Exchanges Capital Markets Conference in Mauritius in the lovely and recently renovated beach property of Hotel Maritim …over 100 Delegates from South Asian Nations…many with their Spouse….Sadly need to be suited and Booted for most part in this beautiful paradise which makes you want to shed off the clothes….maybe I’ll just disappear after Lunch !….like I did yesterday….took a Boat and went out for a few hours to sea….Ah! the Solitude and the Gentle Breeze and a Good Book !….the above Parasailing shot was actually captured by me while out at sea…no Market Volatility to be worried about….Is the Sensex Up or Down !? How are my scrips doing!?…..that can wait a few days!

Back to Reality on Monday

Cheers !

It’s Been a Hectic schedule and I’ve nearly missed connecting flights!….I’m on a series of Training Workshops entitled ’Focussing on Fundamentals to Add Value to a Client Relationship’ all over India for the IFAs of a leading MF

Began with one in Mumbai…..just returned from Pune,Delhi and Lucknow and will be soon off to Bengaluru…to steal a line from ‘McDonalds’..”I’m Loving it”

Interaction was great with the IFAs….and it was fun showing and convincing them that it was not necessary that Equities and Cynicism be  strongly intertwined !….Even before I began my Lucknow Sessions,a lady emphatically stated that whatever I was going to say,she does not believe me !….for a fleeting second I imagined it was my wife saying this!…set up the Lucknow Day beautifully…Opening Batsman being greeted with a dangerous Bouncer !

Workshop Arrangements were very good….was particularly impressed by the Pune Venue…The 110 seater Sumant Moolgaonkar Auditorium at the MCIIA Complex,ICC Towers….Auditorium Settings with comfortable Seating….with State of the Art Audio Visual Equipment…overhead projector,remote controlled huge pull down screen with laser pointer capability and a seperate sound studio…set up my Presentations beautifully….I had to catch the 7 pm flight to Delhi and it was pouring in Pune!…could not tele or web check in as this facility closes one hour before the flight !…managed to reach Lohegaon Airport in time to check in,clear security and board……. takeoff was on time despite the Heavy Rains

Flew Delhi -Lucknow early morning…Delhi Airport has got great facilities…was a bit early so had a South Indian Breakfast at the Food Court…and was served another South Indian Breakfast inflight!….had a bad experience with the Checked In Luggage…when collecting the Bag in Lucknow,realised there was a deliberate blade induced slit on the outside Zip Pocket and a crude ripping of the Pocket material itself…it stored only Paper Tissues….obviously the baggage handlers at either the Delhi or the Lucknow Airport were the culprits…this is not an uncommon occurrence in India  

Lucknow was preparing for CM,Mayawati’s huge Monday rally….the controversial newly errected Monuments and Statues were lit in Blue Lighting….nearly missed the flight back to Mumbai in the Evening….the Workshop Participants showed great Intensity as I covered concepts and content and the Practical Applications and there was flowing interaction….will our Sensex touch 21000 in 2010 ? Will Different NAVs,Diversification,Corpus Size make any Difference to MF Scheme Performance and in your selecting which MF Scheme to Invest in? What’s Improper Framing? What’s Reinvestment Risk?How do you convince clients to enter Equity Schemes? What’s ‘Value’ and ‘Price’?….answered these and and lots more

Interaction continues by email from the participants….Looking forward to Bengaluru now

Cheers !

Was really touched this morning…. received a call on my mobile from a PSU Banker who introduced himself as being a participant on one of my BSE Training workshops three years ago

…he was unaware of this blog and had called to inquire if he could attend any more of my Equity workshops as he had benefited immensely the last time around as I concentrate only on Fundamentals and concepts that remain true over time when discussing Stock ideas during valuation exercises

…he said I had also rewarded him with some books because he had solved some teasers and interacted well…..his Bank too had benefited as he had recommended Great Eastern Shipping for the Bank’s Portfolio after we had broken up this company into Shipping and Offshore verticals to value it….said the bank made Rs 80 lakhs profit on this ! because of his recommendation and based on the discussion in class that build up his confidence and conviction in the scrip….we plan to meet soon to explore if we can translate this into a professional advisory and training relationship

…..really touched by his call….Training and sharing whatever knowledge is a passion…and such calls makes it all the more worth it…in fact just recently finished sessions over three days to Income Tax Commissioners from all over India….this was the fourth occassion in two years that I have been invited to inaugurate and close the three days Equity sessions with them…..the Chief called me into his room  to put on record his appreciation….felt the effort was worth it…felt warm…you know how Income Tax Commissioners are so difficult to please !

Of course the common query remains “Which Stocks ?”…I have sounded a warning that if my recommendations go wrong,then my email is wrong !

Cheers !

From our Stock Watch of over 300 Scrips these 16 are our Stock Select releases or re-releases on May 4,2009 for as Portfolio Ideas…These are based on Fundamentals and the idea of putting them on this Blog is to assert that even if you were anti-equity and ignored the March 2009 Lows and Sensex of 8000,you could yet have entered beginning May 2009 at Sensex levels of 11500 and made some good returns

 Some Observations and Comments

• In less than three months,the performance of most have been very good…Nine of the Sixteen have surged over 50%…The seven  that have not ,have also seen a surge from March 2009 lows and their northwards movements have decelerated from May
• GVK and Lanco were recommended on May 21,2009 and NIIT on May 19,2009…all the others were May 4,2009…Opening Prices are as on the date of Reco  
•  It do not include Sesa Goa,which has been our front runner for a long time now.It currently trades at Rs 230+ ,up near 300 % from March 2009 Low of Rs 60…Last year we had again recommended it at cum bonus and split price levels of over Rs 3000,translating to ex split and ex bonus price level range of  Rs 150 to Rs 165…we reiterated the recommendation several times at every significant decline 
• It also does not include Firstsource Solutions recommended at Rs 9 and then at Rs 14 in Feb 2009…It now is Rs 22,after seeing a high of Rs 30 recently
• It does not include Punj Loyd too as this was pursued vigorously in March 2009 at levels close to Rs 100…It’s doubled since them
• IFCI has doubled and IDFC and NIIT have been near doublers
• Even the Four Core Scrips,Grasim,BHEL,Larsen & Toubro and Reliance Industries,which have a high Percentage of Portfolio Weightage have performed very well….Of these BHEL,Larsen and Reliance have been re-recommended several times in the past two years…All have been doublers from early March 2009 
• Only one scrip,Ahmedabad Steelcraft has yet to perform…It had gone upto Rs 20 though a while ago  and has seen a high of Rs 27 last year 

Don’t ask me why I have recommended these or could you yet enter them at these current levels if they have not reached target prices ! My Clients would kill me if I blog free what they pay me for !..But you could try and read between the lines and research these yourselves ! I did cover some of them in my Workshops

And a word of caution…..You must Invest as per your Profile….Many of the above scrips may not suit your Profile…for instance a Conservative Investor in Equities would concentrate only on the Core Scrips and would never Invest in Aftek or Shree Rama Multi-Tech !,no matter how insignificant the exposure would be !…On the other hand, an Aggressive Investor would seize even an event based opportunity even if it was contingent in nature , and therefore more riskier ! 

However I can say this…..any Portfolio created or expanded on May 4, 2009, with Scrip Selection and Weightage based on Investor profile,  from the above  would have registered a strong performance in under three months…in all probability,over 50% as Nine of the above scrips have surged 50% + inside three months….In the same period the Sensex has notched 30% , moving from 11600 levels to current levels of 15100

So a stock selection based portfolio,rather than an Index Fund or Sensex weighted Portfolio  would have nearly doubled your returns over those of the Sensex…..The Magic is to demonstrate consisitency in beating the Sensex over longer Periods….Many,like John Bogle of Vanguard believe in Index Investing only,while Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has shown that over 44 years their Portfolio returns are simply mindboggling over those of the S & P 500….Even the CAGR is more than double…S& P is less than 9%,while Berkshire Hathaway is over 20% !…In absolute terms there is absolutely no comparison ! S & P is a shade over 4000 % while BH is over 300000 %  over 44 years from 1965 !

So best of Luck in searching for those Stocks that will  catapult you into stardom ! Rakesh Jhunjhunwala had the conviction in Crisil and Praj and Titan !…Matrix and Mercator have made Millions for many of My Clients a few years ago…a few even retired in their 30s and 40s,but have since returned to work as their Wives simply cannot tolerate them being at home all day !…Oh ! we do suck Lemon too…in the late 1990s it was the Damania Group that let us down…..In 2006/7 Silverline was one such Lemon..lucky we got out in time…a decision I took after an unconvincing meeting with the Promoter after we had believed in the restructuring story…I’ll leave a few others Lemons for some other Day !

Some Contrarion Thinking could be a great Asset…Late 2001,2003,May 2004,October 2008,March 2009…are were simply fabulous times when you could have Invested in Equities for great returns…They say you cannot Time the Markets…but historical evidence of Irrational Exuberance and the flip side of Irrational Panic is so strong in India that Tactical Strategies ( A type of Market Timing) for Equity Portfolios can achieve spectacular results

Problem you face in India,with Increasing Stock Coverage from the ever increasing Number of Stock Channels,is that everyone has a Strong Opinion and a Weak Memory !…and everyone strongly changes the Opinion too !…In a way and literally too…they follow the Stock Markets instead of Stock Markets following them !…For Most,It’s all Hindsight really ! 

What you need is Cash and Conviction both to make your selections and the temperament to hold that Conviction if you feel your Selection was good in the first place…..When Sesa Goa dived to Rs 60 earlier this year from levels of Rs 175 last year,you needed Cash and Conviction both,to buy or to average your holdings…It’s climbed near 300% to Rs 230+ inside five Months ! 

Someone just phoned and asked me what my target for Sesa Goa is !….I told him Goa is great in the Monsoons ! ….are you trying to read between the lines already !?

Cheers !

Returned late night from Bengaluru at 1 am in the morning as Flight was delayed after delivering a two day Equity Workshop at the weekend…the  eight in a series for a Broking House…It was pouring as we drove to the New Airport,50 + kms away from the City…but we had a Mad Max Driver who drove as if his life,and ours !, depended on it ! weaving at 100 kmph through stranded cars in the fast flooding roads ! and despite incessant rain whipping the windscreen…paid a ridiculous Rs 260 User Fee to access the Airport

Had gone earlier on Thursday,to spend two days at a friend’s 75 acre farm, 20 kms outside Bengaluru,on the fringe of the Bannnerghata Wildlife Park…what a great break !…could hear the silence !…had friend’s three dogs ( Small Datschund and Large Dalmatians!) all over me…Elephants and Monkeys destroy crops and so commercial farming becomes a tedious affair …tried to spot a Gharial in one of his four water harvested ponds on the farm…it had probably slipped in from the forest through the canals….relaxed company , great organic food,fresh vegetables,fresh mangoes,fresh coconut water,fresh jackfruit and fresh rains !…too short a break,though !

Then switched to workshop mode on Saturday Morning….It was truly satisfying…When I threw the House open  for any questions on Sunday ,prompt came the first one “When will you come back to Bengaluru for your next workshop !?….Thanks! Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh ! for some great participation

We had some fun discussing Valuations of Reliance Industries,Satyam and Reliance Power and even Jaiprakash Hydro among others companies…and am glad you’ll were genuine in your reactions when we played the Integrity,Insider Trading and Irrational Behaviour Scenarios

Now you know how Mumbai,Vadodora and Rajkot got excited  on Reliance Ind Valuations in March and April 2009  at Rs 1100 to Rs 1300 !…maybe I should have come to Bengaluru first !

So all of you know what is the appropriate Valuation Basis to use for Satyam…and how you can make some money on it ,based on an event based risk in June 2009 ! 

You are now acquainted with the Valuation Risks of Reliance Power at Rs 180 and Jai Prakash Hydro at Rs 70 ! 

Shanteeth,I hope we do get to 23000 + on the Sensex in 2009 itself, as you aggressively suggested at the outset of the workshop based on Technicals…though  I showed you why it looks highly improbable on Fundamentals !…glad you loved the Book I gave you “Screw it ! Just Do it! ” by Richard Branson…now pass it on so someone else enjoys it too !

And Shiv Prasad,I hope you can now scale up your business by some rational thinking and by trusting more !…and not succumb to Improper Framing when applying Investment funds

And Vincent,you’re a good thinker…very few have sensed the reason why ,that when one’s business is not doing well and the product is not selling , you raise the price and the product starts selling !….Economics would have dictated otherwise.

And Prabhu,you’re smart…not many would have guessed why one particular Slot Machine in the Las Vegas Casino gave higher revenues to the Casino Owner

And Nagendra,as you touch 60,the need for protection of wealth needs to be re-emphasised when growing it !…actually to ‘Protect’ and to ‘Grow’ Wealth is the Prime Function of Asset Allocation and Optimal Portfolio

We played out Investor Mistakes and the Reinvestment Risk…we discussed Investor Icons,Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch and their Investment philosophies and whether we can apply these in India

We discussed Concepts of Value v/s Price,Beta and it’s role in Hedging,Valuation and Investment Strategies…..Global and US Economic Crisis and it’s Impact on India…are we decoupled enough ?…our Fiscal Deficit Problems and our Extraordinary High Government Borrowings to fund Non Plan Expenditure,especially Defence and Subsidies

We saw the Market Dynamics impacting the Sensex…it’s macro valuations in the past and levels projected based on Earnings and Multiples…the Sensex CAGR over 5,8 and 18 years

We saw the impact of FII Inflows and Outflows from 2005 to date in 2009….How FII’s have reversed outflows and May 2009 itself saw an inflow of US $ 4.14 Billion !…and if US $ 10 Billion more comes in,as expected this year,how it will continue to fuel the Sensex 

I’m sure I’ll be back in Bengaluru !…maybe we can all have the workshop in Mauritius as we discussed when computing the Interest Cost on the EMI Scheme of ‘Fly Now,Pay Later’ covered during the ‘Time Value of Money’ session !

Cheers !

Sounds like I simply devoured a Great Triple Sundae Dessert out there in Trichy !

Actually it was Trebly memorable Sunday in the Temple City of Trichy in Tamil Nadu due to

• An Emotionally Uplifting ‘Darshan’ of Lord Vishnu and ‘Goddess Lakshmi’ at Trichy’s Main Temple at Srirangam
• A very well received Two Day Workshop organised by one of India’s leading Broking Groups…Participants had come from Thanjavur,Madurai,Salem and Coimbatore and other places in Tamil Nadu 
• A Sensational IPL Final and Closing Ceremonies 

Actually I just returned to Mumbai from Trichy yesterday after this memorable weekend…Had gone to deliver the above weekend Workshop

It began with our Jet Flight from Mumbai to Chennai on Friday afternoon….On landing in Chennai we were told of the cancellation of the connecting Paramount Airways Chennai-Trichy flight on Friday Night..wasn’t too keen to drive six to seven hours from Chennai to Trichy at night,so transfered to a Chennai - Madurai flight…they served a Tamil Nadu brand of Water called ‘Diet’ ! …Diet Water ! ?….Smaller 72 seater Embareur Aircraft…pretty comfortable and stable too in the air…full dinner service on a 55 minutes flight with proper linen and cutlery and crockery……+ Scratch a Card and Win one of several Gifts !…pay Rs 599 and you can collect these at Special AVA Counters at airports…collected a FOCE Watch at Madurai Airport…..They’re smart…rarely can you win the more expensive gifts like a Blackberry !…and even if you do you have to write to Haryana to get it…What is stocked at the counters are just Watches and Pearl and Leather sets !…..pretty gimmicky really…..stayed overnight at North Gate,Madurai…..actually worked on the Presentations till 3.45 am in the night to update Friday Closing Market Figures….left for Trichy by road at 5.30 am in the morning…reached at 8.15 am and began the weekend workshop at 10 am on Saturday

But it was Sunday that was really great

It began with a Special Darshan at 8.30 am at Trichy’s most famous Temple at Srirangam…The residing Deity is Lord Vishnu lying horizontal on a serpent….It was ‘Amavas’ and the hordes of worshippers had formed a long  queue…surely it would take them hours to seek God’s Blessings !…Fortunately the ‘Darshan’ was arranged after we were guided to enter through one of the Nine Gates of the Temple…It was truly an overwhelming experience…However, though ‘Lord Vishnu’ blessed us,we were unable to pray to ‘Goddess Lakshmi’ as temple timings had to be followed…I was disappointed and evinced a desire to return that evening for her ‘darshan’

I began the second day of the Workshop at 10 am .It was very touching that participants were quite effusive in their appreciation….I hope their feedback forms to the Client reflect all of this !…They got out of their shell from Saturday afternoon and began interacting and responding well with me on Sunday…Covered Satyam’s Valuation on a Participant’s Request and covered Reliance Valuation to convey why the markets were so excited that they had raced this scrip from Rs 1100 in early March to twice that now !…Covered Concepts like Beta and It’s Application in Valuation,Hedging and Momentum Trading

Then I returned at 6.45 pm to the Temple for ‘Goddess Lakshmi’….and Wow !…what a ‘Darshan’…There were thousands all over the Temple and the queue was longer than the morning…First we were blessed by the Goddess of Health and then by the Goddess of Wealth !…and would you believe it ! …About a Hundred Temple Priests,with the Head Priest took out a Palkhi of ‘Goddess Lakshmi’,because it was Amavas….We were invited to stand right next to the Palkhi ! and partook of the ‘prasadam’…sweet water and coconut….. It was a wonderful and emotional  experience and truly inspiring…Kept the Faith ! 

I returned to the Hotel and viewed a scintillating IPL Final at ‘The Wanderers’ in Johanesburg….between Man of the Series,Gilchrist’s ‘Biryani’ Deccan Chargers from Hyderabad and Man of the Match,Kumble’s ‘Bisebelebath’ Royal Challengers from Bengaluru…Chargers won by six runs as Kumble’s Challengers were unable to chase 143 !…A visibly dejected Kumble,Man of the Match with 4/16,stated ” We were just One  Hit away from Victory !”…That’s the beauty of  T-20 Cricket…These Two teams were at the bottom of the table last year at seventh and eighth,in the inaugural IPL in India….in IPL 2 they contested the Finals !

But what really kept me up till 2 am was the IPL 2 Closing ceremonies !….Performances by Akon,Kaitrina Kaif (”Jai Ho”),Eddy Grant (”Walking on Sunshine” and “Gimme Hope, Joanna” ),Shaimak Davar,Phoenix Fire Dancers,Rhythmic Drummers with their Drum Sticks on Fire…Surreal !…Laser, Acrobatic (dangling from Hot Air Balloons !),and Pyrotechnic Displays…Phew ! Take a Bow ! Lalit Modi !  

caught just a half and hour of wink…. bathed at 2.45 am and left for the Trichy Airport at 3.15 am for my 4.40 am Air India flight to Chennai…we were domestic passengers on an International Flight coming from Sharjah….and then the Jetlite connecting Flight to Mumbai…so flew four  different airlines on the four legs in this trip

So no sleep on Sunday Night at all !…and to think of it even Friday night….And I knew the Sensex will misbehave yesterday and even Today…Divine Call at Trichy !…so I took a Break and slept !

Now off to Bengaluru on Thursday to deliver a Weekend Workshop,the eight in the present series !

Cheers !

Just returned from the Gujarat Leg of Workshops…Being fairly fluent in Gujarati,my mother tongue too, really helped as most of the interaction was in Gujarati……It’s been a gratifying and satisfying and enjoyable experience to have conceived and conducted Internal Training Workhops for one of India’s largest broking group…Completed Five and some more to go in North and South India

The Two day Workhop focuses on Grasping Fundamentals to add Value to Client Relationships and covers Time Value of Money,Valuation,US Economic Crisis,Indian Budget,Market Dynamics,Investment Gurus and their approach,Investor Mistakes,Logical Thinking,Integrity,Insider Trading,Hedging, and the Security Analysis and Portfolio Managment Process…It’s aimed at Relationship Managers,Associates and those that deal directly with Clients..either advising them,executing their deals or simply representing the firm with them

Several Concepts were examined…’Beta’ being an interesting one….How Aggressive players,Valuers and Hedgers use it despite it being debunked by several,including Warren Buffett  

It’s really been fun interacting with a wide spectrum of Men and Women,both young and old,who aggregated their emotions and experiences in the workshops to liven the proccedings

Yes,”P” from Mumbai,your ‘Praj’ has worked !…It’s up from Rs 57 to Rs 79….you did say your target was Rs 75 ! and that too within 15 days !….All I advice you is to assess and then take the Risk by distinguishing Momentum and Valuation

And yes “Mrs M ” from Vadodora,I’m glad you conveyed that the one significant takeaway for you from this workshop is that ‘Value’ and ‘Price’ are two seperate issues !

And “Mr B” from Rajkot,you’re brain is surely a whiz one when in comes to Number Crunching…you were computing even faster than I was !

And “Mr U” you said the Sensex will touch 21000 by 2010 !…Now you know,why this looks fundamentally improbable…it would need a favourable play of all three…significant earnings momentum,better PE rating and a quantum jump in Liquidity,especially FII Inflows….Quite Unlikely

Oh ! and thanks “Mr V” for suggesting I drop the “Cheers” Glass from my blog photo and even the Slides Photo….You will notice there is no Glass Now !…Happy !? Now,as you had feared, no one should feel that I’m doing all that I’m doing for a peg of whisky !      

The feedback I’ve received is very encouraging…clearly there is more thirst for Knowledge….and interestingly the Vision Statement of this Group states that ‘Knowledge is the Driver,not Capital’

I gave out interesting and relevant Books and Movie Cds to participants who interacted well or came out tops in quizzing etc…I’m sure it was not just the ‘Moment’ that caused the participants to vie with each other for these…..but those that got the Books actually will read them

Most Participants knew ‘What’ to do but needed guidance on ‘How’ to do it

Like I always state “Academics without Action and Theory without Application is useless’ 

It has been a privilege to have been invited thrice to take the pre lunch inaugural sessions at the three Financial Markets Seminars conducted by the Direct Taxes Regional Training Institute in Mumbai…the First one was in September 2007,followed by one in February 2008 and the latest began yesterday…While the Coordinators keep on changing,the DTRTI continues to be headed by a very graceful and full of poise, Lady Commissioner…. The Invitation and the Thank You Letter that inevitably follows the conclusion of the Seminar comes from her desk 

I go back tomorrow to the Seminar for an Open House Q & A Session…already have fielded some searching ones…..like when discussing the Ratio, Market Capitalisation to GDP,a very attentive Commissioner queried that while Market Cap may be the Wealth perceived by the Markets,GDP is Not the Wealth of the Nation…in a sense it’s only the Annual National Income as measured by Gross Domestic Product…Wealth of India is much more…we got into interaction on Money and what three things you can do with it…consume or save or invest…it also threw up India’s High Savings to GDP rate of 35% and the relatively higher Equity Exposure rate of over 7%  of Total Savings…With Market Capitulation,expect this Exposure to water down quick

I have ofcourse forewarned them that those who had sought scrips to buy into, in earlier seminars, are no longer on this planet !

I spoke for over Three and a Half Hours on Indian Equity : Dimensions and Dynamics…..covering Global and Indian Market Dynamics,Fate of the US Dollar, FII exposures and trends and short sales (see a day or two old blog on this) ,Insider Trading,Sensex performance in the short and long term and likely Sensex by 2010

I faced some sombre,unlike earlier seminars,and quite smart,alike earlier seminars, Income Tax Commissoners….. perhaps reflecting both the Market Moods and how tough and challenging Direct Tax Collections are likely to be in the near future with the economy slowing down

Our FM has set a Direct Taxes collection target of Rs 1000 crores a day aggregating Rs 356000 crs in FY 09

The Collections in the First Half look good…but it was revealed to me that last year many assesses filed returns and paid taxes in October 2007 …this time around thay have paid taxes under self assessment in September itself…if you remove these then there is no significant rise in tax collections  in the first half year on year

With Corporate Earnings Slowing and with the Markets in the Condition they are it is unlikely the target of Rs 365000 crs will be achieved,unless there is a vigorous exercise to widen the tax base and also effect better tax compliance

Have a look at the Collections in April 2008 to September 2008 Period in FY 09

We know that Broking Income,has simply fallen off the Cliff with the Sensex  plummeting from 21200 levels to go below 10000 in 2008…..yet we see that the Securities Transactions Tax (STT) collections being just marginally above last year levels

Are we Indians, gambling addicts, who need to roll the Derivatives Roulette every single day ! ? STT should have shown a fall. We seem to just love losing Monies !…and a smart cartel seems to simply enjoy seducing us !