This week began with the Sensex recording an intra-day low of 7697 on Monday and it has closed up 27% from this low  to illuminate this Diwali week by a bounce back of 2091 points

October 2008 itself has been a very scary month…The Month began on October 1,2008 with the Sensex closing at it’s highest for the month…13056…It’s been sharply downhill since then ,plunging 41% or 5359 points to a low of 7697 on October 27,2008 before closing more respectfully at 9788 on October 31,2008 

So is the Worst Over ?

Not by a Long Shot…..Action has largely been restricted to Large Cap Stocks in the Sensex and the BSE 500 with heavyweights,HDFC and RIL leading the way ,up 17.48% and 13.81% respectively

Fed has cut back rate to 1%,last seen in different circumstances in 2001, and the World is moving towards a Zero Rate Quantitative Monetary Easing Policy or QMEP…even Japan,with it’s 0.5% rate is thinking of reducing it.Money Supply and not Rates will be the Control Tool. 

With Recessionary and Liquidity crunch conditions unlikely to go away soon in developed nations,their GDP Growth rates will converge to Zero %

In India,with FII OutFlows continuing to dominate proceedings,the Sensex will face a challenge trying to create it’s own independent Identity and will continue to mirror and shadow the trend in Global Indices,particularly the Dow.Over US $ 3.5 billion has been moved out by the FIIs this month alone with the year’s aggregate to date crossing US $ 11 billion. 

Also there is a perceptible Corporate Earnings Slow down and many in the Construction and Infrastructure Sector have stopped work on many Projects with Demand and Asset Prices easing considerably and increasing difficulty in Financial Closures

HCC is one such major player in this sector that has announced project stoppage.It’s share price had slipped below Rs 40 today and closed without gains at just over Rs 41…it began this week with a year low of Rs 30…It had begun the Year 2008 with the Year High of Rs 279 !

Countries have been lining up the IMF for huge Bailouts…US $ 100 billion to six countries to be decided soon,probably today

The Global Economic situation remains grim and scary…India is not decoupled to escape the consequences,nothwithstanding what our FM has been assuring us right from Sensex levels of 21000 !….The second half of FY 09 will confirm that the Earnings slow down continues in India

And with the Dow expected to test 7000,so will our Sensex…so don’t be in a hurry to get back in at 10000 

The Worst is not yet Over…Pull back Rallies in such scary,nervous and uncertain circumstances are deceptive

Chris Broad,the Match Referee in the ongoing third cricket test match between India and Australia at New Delhi,has just announced a one test match Ban for Gautam Gambhir for his elbowing Shane Watson on being provoked by the latter

‘Gambhir’ in Hindi  means ‘Serious’ and such physical aggression is certainly not cricket ! It’s a serious matter….Gambhir has been earlier penalised for his Spat with Pakistan’s Afridi in an ODI…Chris Broad says he could have given a two match ban but the Umpires said that he was provoked by Watson

This Means that the back to back Centurion and Double Centurion,Gambhir will miss the Final Test Match in Nagpur…was this the gameplan by the Aussies ?

My simple observation is this…While Gambhir clearly deserves this Ban for repeated offence and that too a physical one,the provoker,Shane Watson should not have got away with a mock fine of just 10% of his Match fees

Watson should have been fined his Full Match fees ! What Say, Watson ? To steal a line from Sherlock Holmes,”It’s elementary,Watson !”…You were provoking him from the first over itself…Your reaction to Harbhajan Singh and Zaheer Khan belting you in Bangalore included some choice expletives…you got away then.

This continuing double standards by ICC makes you suspect that something is amiss in the World of Cricket…on one hand you want to popularise the Game and on the other you are polarising it !

ICC and it’s Match Referees, like Chris Broad, are clearly discriminating between players from Australia,England,New Zealand and South Africa on one hand and the players from India,Pakistan,Sri Lanka and Bangladesh on the Other when it comes to applying the ICC Code of Conduct

It’s Australia who is not playing Cricket in the spirit of the Game…even their Prime Minister had to warn their Captain,Pointing, to play the Game in the spirit of it during the acrimonius India -Australia Series in Australia,where the West Indian Umpire,Steve Bucknor repeatedly and deliberately gave blatantly wrong umpiring decisions in favour of the Australians to enable them to win the Sydney Test…a test that they were on course to otherwise end up losing

The Australians just can’t win on the field and beat the opposing team in a fair and square manner…they need to resort to hardcore sledging and provocation and psychologocal warfare…the problem is that they cannot take any !

With Clearly ICC and Appointed Match Referees on their side,the Australians continue their bad and unsporting behaviour

Methinks Shane Watson may have a tough time playing the Second Year of the  T-20 IPL Series in India .He was adjudged the Man of the first IPL Series…fearing Crowd Backlash he may just opt out 

Don’t worry Watson….We, Indians, are very hospitable people…we will extend our hospitality to you too…certainly not ‘hospitalise’ you !

Oh ! and Arun Lal,take a break from Commentary…your perspective on this episode is coloured..you just opined on ‘Times Now’ that Gambhir is living on Borrowed Time if he does not control his anger,no matter what the provocation….Fair enough,but you’ve chosen,like Chris Broad,to remain silent on why only a 10 % Match Fee Fine for Shane Watson…..take a firm stand like Sunil Gavaskar…he always stands by what he says and does not sit on the fence like you tend to do…no matter what flak he receives…Gavaskar,one of the commentators at the time,even chuckled when Watson put his hand out as a hurdle when Gambhir was taking a run and Gambhir elbowed him in his stomach as if to answer that he could do it better ! 

Gambhir or No Gambhir in Nagpur for the fourth test match ! you Aussies have no chance against the rising Indians…anywhere,anytime

Come on Mates…play the Sport ,Sportingly

Gautam Gambhir from New Delhi, North India scored a classy 206 against the Australians today

&

Vishwanathan Anand from Chennai, South India, defeated Kramnik to lift the World Chess Championship yesterday

Both Secular Indians first… Where’s the Question of any North and South Divide here ! ? 

All of India is celebrating their achievements

Come on India… retain your Secular Spirit and don’t let Politicians and Religious Leaders of any Hue and geographical location or even the Media provoke, direct, inflame and influence you to behave and think like a Bigot ! 

Don’t Stain with Red our Nation’s Fundamental Mantra ‘Unity in Diversity’…the Colour of Blood is Red in every Human on this Planet Earth. 

In these capitulated markets All listed Companies….. the Good, the Bad and the Ugly are being painted with the same paint brush now… now that’s a great Opportunity to hoard up on some great scrips at distress prices

Just be careful… Bad and Ugly Companies have an excuse now to be quoted so low… don’t buy them just because they are cheap… they never deserved to be listed or quoted high in the first place

Given this worrying Business environment, Good Companies will have some tough and challenging quarters into 2009…. that should not deter you from hunting the carton for some crazy bargains… just be careful of the Bad and the Ugly… these will discolour and go out of shape and shrink and tear fast…. and zips and elastics will not work and buttons will fall off and…..

Look at at this way… given a choice, would you buy Silverline at Rs 9 or IFCI at Rs 15…. or Hotel Leela at Rs 20 or HOV at Rs 30 ? … Oh ! and Unitech which had dropped to Rs 30 has already bounced back to Rs 50 inside two trading days 

I reiterate… Keep the Faith !.. You’ll need both, Conviction and Cash

If you are a leading broking House,what would you do if the Going is so Good and you are to shortly launch your IPO at a very High price and expect the listing to be at double that price ?

Obviously unethically try to corner shares and limit floating stock and ofcourse play with your ESOP and Employee Quotas

This Broking House did just that….Key Top Employees were flattered when they were seduced from  leading Financial and Banking and Mutual Fund Institutions with the lure of High Pay,High Performance Incentices and Shareholding

Just before the IPO,they were shattered when they were called and summarily dismissed from service for not meeting targets when they had actually even exceeded them !

All because to deprive them of ESOP and Employee Quota shareholding !…They had lost out on 100% to 300% returns !

With the Markets in the Doldrums now,these fired employees are exclaiming “Thank God !” and “Serves You Right !” as share prices of Broking Firms have plummetted 90% from peaks and sunk way below even IPO Issue Price

Oh ! just heard too that this Broking House has been delaying payments to suppliers…even a reasonably small payment of Rs 15000 to a Printer

When this Broking House could have created great Goodwill,they chose to create some Ill Will…so when the Chips are down…Bad and Ill Will will simply Dominate

So Stop having False Pride in being awarded ’ Best Research House’ and other such accolades…they are meaningless when you would also qualify to be one of the top contenders for being the ‘Worst Employer’…if ever such an award is presented ! 

Lessons to be learnt here…….Be Good to People on your Way Up….you’ll meet them on your way Down

Gautam Gambhir just got bowled by Shane Watson for a superb 206 and Ganguly too did not bother the scorers too much … It’s the post lunch session and the only two Indian Wickets to have fallen today just did on the second day of the third Test Match in the four match Sunil Gavaskar-Allan Border Series… India leads the Series 1-0

Some great commentary from Mark Nicholas and Sunil Gavaskar…. Nicholas starkly states that the Australians are in a state of both mental disintegration and physical integration as a tired Brett Lee bowls a tired ball and let’s Laxman crack a four to third man… Gavaskar observes that it’s just a game of Cricket being played.. not Test Cricket… Indians are not being tested says he

Pointing has tried Eight Bowlers !, including himself… he should now go for the record and get all 11 to bowl… Hussey, Hayden and the Wicket Keeper need to turn the arm to create this record !

Yesterday Shane Watson  and Katisch went head to head with Gautam Ghambir and Watson and Gambhir are to face disciplinary hearings from the Match Referee, Chris Broad following charges laid by the Umpires, Billy Bowden and Alim Darr… Gavaskar continues to strongly affirm that it’s the players from the sub continent who continue to get the stick while the provokers from other countries get away… insinuating that in this case too only Gambhir will be penalised for deliberately elbowing Watson while on a run

Let’s wait and watch

Wishing all of You and your Near and Dear ones a Great Diwali and a Prosperous New Year Ahead

Keep the Faith….Your Life is Ahead of You and Not Behind

I’m confident that Samvat 2065 ( the Hindu New Year) that begins today will be better and brighter than how Samvat 2064 shaped out to be in the end

And I take this blog opportunity to thank and reciprocate to each and every one of you who greeted on this Festive Occasion through Cards,SMS,Email,Phone Calls and Personal Vists

Priority Greetings to those who send or bore Gifts !…Just Jesting !

Our Market has Expired so please don’t expect any reciprocal Gift…and if you do receive a Gift from someone,and you recognise it as your’s send to us…yes we did rotate it !…and please remember this is Festive Season and any swearing must be directed only to the Umpires for missing calling the ’No balls’ of the Australian Bowlers in the Cricket Test Match between India and Australia that began today in New Delhi 

Keep the Faith…It will rain again after this Drought  

It’s certainly going to be a Hapless Diwali….Yet hang in there….Keep the Faith….Pray the next Samvat Year 2065 brings  back the Smiles and Cheers for all of us

A Diwali Gift given to a Broker was passed on by him to his CA…who switched visiting cards and passed it on to another…and within two days the same Gift came back to the Broker !

The World is certainly Small and Round !

This Rotation of Gifts is not  going to be an uncommon practice this Diwali !

So I will not be surprised  if my gifted Chocolates too come back to me !

Last night,I caught up with the Chairman of one of India’s leading Diamond Companies….and he is worried about the further fate of the US $ inside a year from now !

The Diamond Industry is an export oriented and value added one…..Roughs are imported…polished and exported….The Imports were left unhedged but exports were hedged as Dollar at Rs 42/US $ was expected to weaken…Instead the US $ surged to Rs 50+/US $…Exports being hedged will not reap the benefit while Imports that were unhedged will see the cash flows impacted significantly as Diamond Houses will now have to pay at current rupee depreciated rates of  Rs 50/US $ 

Time to Change your Forex Team/Advisors guys !…With your losses they are anyway going to lose their jobs or their retainers !

What a lovely Saturday…after hosting a lunch for overseas guests from the Securities Regulator of Stock Markets in Malaysia and Fiji,I caught up with Robin Sharma,one of the world’s top experts on Inspiring Leadership and the author of several bestsellers including “The Monk who sold his Ferrari” and “The Saint,the Surfer and the CEO”….as one close friend quipped when he saw the photo below ” So who’s the Saint and who’s the CEO ! ? “

Robin Sharma was here in Mumbai to launch his latest Book,”The Greatness Guide 2″

He says his best so far is “The Greatness Guide “….I told him that I like “Discover Your Destiny” the most

Some gems from him at the launch……

• At my first public speaking engagement there were 23 people in the audience of whom 21 were my Family Members
• If you have a pulse,you can be a leader and make a difference
• First thing in the Morning after waking,I listen to the silence…light some candles…put on some music
• My Children are my biggest inspiration

Thanks, Robin,  for the Autographs on your books and thanks darling daughter for the Photo.

Cheers !