It’s Voting Day here in Mumbai today for the General Elections…so yesterday was a Dry Night and we were with Friends at the Club Pub !…. on a Dry Night !?…Believe me it was really nice to enjoy the Privacy of the near empty Pub and chill out on Ice Tea and a close IPL Cricket Match that involved the Mumbai Indians

What a Choker ! Tendulkar’s Mumbai Indians lost by just 3 runs to Yuvraj’s Kings XI,Punjab…They had to score 120 to win and they just gasped and choked at the end

Mumbai India’s owner,Neeta Ambani was in a serious and pensive mood…in sharp and stark contrast to the hyper and excited Preity Zinta…So Near and Yet so far ! Mrs Ambani !?….Your auction choice of Duminy to prop up the batting was an excellent decision…He scored 50 and nearly won you the match…7 needed and he hoisted,what we thought would go on for a six,only to be caught right on the fence at mid wicket !…If it would have been a six it would have tied the game with two balls to go !

And Yes ! Hi ! Kajis…caught your intensity and excitement in the Ambani Camp at the Stadium……..I yet hold your Ras Extrusion Shares….Is your Company still quoted !? Rs 1 or Rs 2 perhaps !…Wish you Guys had showed the same intensity and excitement in running your companies !…Thankfully I sold out years ago from your flagship,Ras KMK Lamipack…Remember Samir Kaji! how you alloted lock in shares to my clients and to me Pre IPO,despite contrary promises made to a friend….And you stuck me with a five year lock in! ,while thankfully clients had just a three year lock in !…..I believed you would make amends by running your companies successfully….But your companies ran aground !……It was a Hope that was belied…I had to honestly apologise to my clients for this locked in placement…Had forgotten all about you…but last night revived some sour memories.   

It’s Mumbai’s turn today to Vote in the General Elections…I Voted !…. What a relief to realise I’m not a Greek Idiot !

Voting began at 7 am…My In-Laws were the first to register their Vote in the designated Polling Station near Home in South Mumbai…a School…My Wife and I voted mid morning….and yes ,Mr Debashish Chakrabarty,Chief Electoral Officer, we dutifully did not take our mobile phones as they were strictly not to be allowed in polling booths !……It was a mockery of a rule !…there was hardly anyone without one !

There were 20 candidates…three of National Parties,eight from registered political parties but not at National or State Level and Nine were Independents…many names I had not even heard of…many are surely in the fray only as vote splitters and many will lose their deposits…The pre poll alliances of NCP/Congress and BJP/Shiv Sena meant seat sharing….so we had the sitting Congress MP,all of a young 33 ,Milind Deora, standing yet again and no NCP Candidate while we had Mohan Rawle of the Shiv Sena standing and no BJP Candidate…60 year Old Rawle has served Five Lok Sabha Terms and he’s just Class 10 educated !…Milind Deora is a University Graduate,son of our Petroleum Minister,Mr Murli Deora and has served just one Term

In the last Elections in 2004 there was a 44.2% Voter turnout in our South Mumbai Constituency…This time we have 1.59 million voters in our Constituency….The Indian Voting Base is 714 Million of our Population of near 1200 Million

So who did I Vote for ! ?…The Choice was between the Devil and the Deep Sea actually…I neither liked most of  the Candidates nor their Parties…I liked an Independent or Two,but am of the strong opinion that India needs to be ruled by a Conscientious National Party and local and small regionalised parties and Independent MPs would only ask for their cake in coalition politics..they would have little other voice to make any significant difference at the Centre !…I yet had to Vote !…so I chose the One I did not like the least ! …atleast,my Wife will be Happy….as this was her firm Choice all along !

What a Way to Go about Voting ! Sad State of Affairs really…but then just reflect !…The Fangs of Corruption,Criminality and Communalism yet rear their Ugly,Dangerous and Toxic Self over all of Us…we simply lack political will and leadership to tackle them effectively

One is Fed Up ! …but that does not mean one should not Vote ! 

So don’t be a Greek Idiot !…Go out there and Vote…you have a few hours left ! Then show off the indelible voting ink on your middle finger on your left hand…and show off the middle finger of your right hand to those who have not voted !   

Flew Air India to Hyderabad Monday morning and Kingfisher back this morning…Kingfisher may have Rs 6000 crs debt and is leaking losses…yet it’s got a better fan following…well deserved

One small local Hyderabad tip…If you have someone picking you up at the new and delightful Rajiv Gandhi Airport then instruct them to come to the departure driveway…all you have to do is come out in Arrivals and take the modern see-through elevator up to the third floor departures…the reason is that Private Cars are not allowed to drive up directly to the Arrivals…they are required to park at a distance and arriving passengers have to walk a fair distance to their cars

The Airport itself is really a beautiful sprawling complex…The only issue is that it’s a fair distance from the City…over 30 kms…In fact I paid the City Cab,Rs 509 for exactly 41.4 kms to the airport this morning…It’s a very reliable air conditioned cab service and charges a minimum Rs 60 for the first 4 kms and then Rs 12 for every km…I did the journey in 45 minutes this morning as it was early at 4 am and roads were clear…but yesterday it took me an hour and a half to reach my destination from the Airport ! and the Sun was simply toying with the Car A/c !

Being early for my 6.05 am flight,I was able to enjoy the Airport Facilities….The Kingfisher  girl was grinning when I presented my PNR number and requested for the ticket printout required to access the airport..I sensed my name had been spelled wrong yet again ! Sigh ! It was ‘Parakh’ this time…..It’s been ‘Parekh’ (acceptable) and ‘Prick’ (clearly unacceptable!) in the past !

Right from the Check In Counter,through Security and the Shopping and into the Plane ,through the Aerobridge is a very smooth experience..As the Shopping is after you clear Security,remember to keep the Bills in the Shopping bag,or else you’ll need a cleared security stamped tag,like you do for your hand baggage….The Shopping and Restaurant Facilities are really very inviting…From Books to Music to Chocolates and Sweetmeats,from Branded Watches to a huge Samsonite range,from  Idlis and Vadas and Dosas to the rich aroma of Coffee Beans…It’s Self service at most counters and Rs 135 for a full  South Indian Breakfast that includes Filter Coffee…There’s also a Shower and Nap facility near  Domestic Gate 28…really ideal

No discounts though at the Bookshop…”Sir, it’s difficult to expect a discount at Airport shops” confessed the attendant…Yet I picked up some great books for the Family …..A Book on Guitar String Notes for Popular songs for my son,a CSI Computer Game for my thirteen year old daughter…should be apt as she’s been selected by a top US University for a three week ‘Forensic Science’  Module to be conducted this Summer at India’s leading Management Institute,two Sudoku Books from my addicted wife,as also one on Gems and Crystal Healing for her…for self,I found some great books like ‘Hundred Minds that Made the Market ’ by Ken Fisher

Oh! and I nearly forgot !…There was Renuka Ramanath,who just resigned as Head of ICICI Ventures,on the flight to Hyderabad…don’t really know her personally…but like all co-passengers,now know personally she was ordering  some jewellery,she had previewed earlier, on her Mobile ! also know the colour !…she was hilariously loud…her laugh too !…all of the passengers now also know her private email !…just before take off she was on her mobile,yelling it out to the jeweller to send her some fresh quotes !…Is she always this Loud,mindless of all around her and that it was surely a private matter between her jeweller and her or was she putting on a show for all of us and trying to draw some attention?…On landing,she walked through the aerobridge and  even dropped her document folder…was reminded to pick up one document she had forgotten….State of Mind,perhaps !?…nearly asked her ,while awaiting for the Plane to be connected to the aero bridge on Landing, what was the mystery about her plans after her resignation…then thought it was her Private Matter and not really any of my concern !…Anyway, wish her all the best for the Future..she’s broken through a glass ceiling and this is no mean achievement.

Probably visiting Hyderabad again in June for delivering a Two day Financial & Stock Market Workshop…Client is to decide between Hyderabad,Vijaywada and Bengaluru         

Thank Varun for this lovely one on Perceptions changing for the same thing in different contexts and settings

Violinist in the Metro

This is an incredible story. It is a social experiment about perception, taste and priorities of people.

A man sat at a metro station in Washington DC and started to play the violin; it was a cold January morning.
He played six Bach pieces for about 45 minutes. During that time, since it was rush hour, it was calculated that thousands of people went through the station, most of them on their way to work.

Three minutes went by and a middle aged man noticed there was musician playing. He slowed his pace and stopped for a few seconds and then hurried up to meet his schedule.

A minute later, the violinist received his first dollar tip: a woman threw the money in the till and without stopping continued to walk.

A few minutes later, someone leaned against the wall to listen to him, but the man looked at his watch and started to walk again. Clearly he was late for work.

The one who paid the most attention was a 3 year old boy. His mother tagged him along, hurried but the kid stopped to look at the violinist. Finally the mother pushed hard and the child continued to walk turning his head all the time. This action was repeated by several other children. All the parents, without exception, forced them to move on.

In the 45 minutes the musician played, only 6 people stopped and stayed for a while. About 20 gave him money but continued to walk their normal pace.
He collected $32.
When he finished playing and silence took over, no one noticed it.
No one applauded, nor was there any recognition.

No one knew this but the violinist was Joshua Bell, one of the best musicians in the world. He played one of the most intricate pieces ever written with a violin worth 3.5 million dollars.

Two days before his playing in the subway, Joshua Bell sold out at a theater in Boston and the seats average $100.

Joshua Bell playing incognito in the metro station was organized by the Washington Post as part of an social experiment about perception, taste and priorities of people. The outlines were: in a commonplace environment at an inappropriate hour: Do we perceive beauty? Do we stop to appreciate it? Do we recognize the talent in an unexpected context?

One of the possible conclusions from this experience could be:

If we do not have a moment to stop and listen to one of the best musicians in the world playing the best music ever written, how many other things are we missing?

This morning I was up before six to take my daughter to the nearby Priyadarshini Park (PDP)…It’s by the Sea

You see,my daughter has to run 35 rounds at the Sports Track at PDP this Saturday morning as part of her Physical Fitness and Endurance Test for her upcoming Black Belt Karate Examinations….so this morning was a training and preparation session

While she jogged around the Park,I sat quietly on a cement bench,timing her each lap and observing hundreds of people of all sizes and shapes walking and jogging around…Some clearly ‘Out of Shape’ and some very, very shapely indeed !

It was fascinating !

Some like to walk in a clockwise direction,some the other way around…some jog,some walk,some walk and jog….some clearly yet in sleep mode !…..some love company while walking,others prefer to be alone….some love jabbering away in rhythm of their steps…some were literally arguing,again in rhythm of their steps and not even sounding out of breath !, about politics and politicians,the flavour of the times as we’re into general elections..My ears caught the names of Rahul Gandhi and Mayawati ….Other popular flavours are the Stock markets and Cricket….I am told this habit,or call it a strategy if you will,clears toxic waste more smoothly in more than one way ! from the Minds and from the Bowels !……others prefer solitude…some walk focused on the path below,avoiding eye contact and the need to acknowledge others while some actually scan for people who they may know…some walk fast,really fast,some simply are prime examples of a slow replay of slow walking….some have earphones,even headphones, glued to their ears listening to music…some,for medical reasons, have Bands glued to their waist….some in groups struggle to keep up with the others,missing a step or two…you can clearly observe who the leader in the pack is…he walks briskly in the centre…and dominates the rhythm and  jabbering too

Oh ! and the Footwear….range from rubber chappals ! to sandals to generally sports shoes….You can conduct a Brand Study !…

Oh ! and there is no discrimination visible..there were a few ‘Bais’ and ‘Mausis’ in their Nine Yard sarees,taking their morning walk too…..Great to see that this is a Public Park in Mumbai,in Maharashtra,in  it’s true sense….

There were numerous really ‘Senior’ Senior Citizens and interestingly a few greeted each other with our traditional respectful ‘Namaste’ or a chant of ‘Hari Om!’ or ‘Jai Shree Krishna’ when crossing each other….I never saw any of the younger generation doing this to the Seniors !…Clearly visible Generation Gaps !

Oh ! and the clothes !….From shorts to trackpants to T-Shirts to kurtis to sarees to salwar khamis to pants and I’m sure one was even a night suit !…a whole range of attire and colours was visible….The elderly really were not too bothered about colour combinations and attire…you could see an old man with a khaki short and a ‘yellowing’ white shirt which had seen better days, actually tucked in with brown socks and simple canvas shoes…and an old ,grey haired, dark complexioned, South Indian Lady in a White Saree draped in the South Indian style and walking very, very gingerly…..though I did notice a definitely 60+ lady making a fashion statement with  colour co-ordinated Grey and orange track pants and T-Shirt 

Squirrels were playfully scampering around  and the calm sea was gently washing the shores just a few metres behind me….a cool sea breeze was beginning to blow in….. and a few meters away on the side, on a grass mound, there was the morning session of the local Laughter Club…it’s 15-20 odd members were standing in a circle and  exercising their throats in clinical laughter  

I did not jog or walk !…just sat there and observed ! despite being goaded to do 50 rounds ! by a close friend,away from Mumbai on work,who had smsed me a Good Morning at 6.30 am from Kolkata and found on my reply that I was at PDP…and I am also following my wife’s instructions to “Sit!”… when she yells this out,I don’t honestly know it’s to our new puppy ‘Zoey’ or to me !..and I’m not taking chances !  

Good Morning Mumbai ! and PDP !…you’re the vital green lung in South Mumbai,amidst this claustrophobic Concrete Jungle…Thank God the Builder Lobby could not get their hands on you !

I’m now planning to go to PDP late evening and night…I’m told my observations would be quite of a different hue ! I wonder why !…the only way is to find out !

Don’t Short this Market !

Fundamentals and Valuations are being shrugged of by Increasing Liquidity and Inflows…This momentum is driving the Nifty and Sensex to new recent highs

Two Leading Broking Houses have literally overnight turned very bullish and talk of a Sensex range of 12500 to 14500 in the near term

Maybe they know where the Inflows are being sourced from and are possibly guiding them in !…Is there a connection with the outflows from Swiss Banks as the Swiss are gearing up to be more transperant and disclose names of beneficiaries of deposits if they suspect these deposits have not been disclosed to Tax authorities in the Country from where these Depositors originate !

And is there also a Connection with the General Elections !?… I remember the late 1980s and early 1990s,when I had authored a centrespread story for Mid-Day Publications on the connection between a short term Bull Run and  Stock Market Rigging and Manipulations and approaching General Elections….how Election Funds were created from Stock Market Gains…I had interviewed a leading MP,who candidly confirmed the connection but for obvious reasons refused to come on record and be quoted. 

If you recall,some of my earlier blogs on Indian Monies in Swiss banks…A report stated that India tops the List ! with US $ 1.5 Trillion stashed away in Switzerland

The BJP has sworn to go after these funds and bring them back to India,if elected back to Power.In fact just today,BJP leader and PM Candidate,LK Advani,has released a Report of Black Money stashed away in Swiss Banks by Indians.He has met the PM,Manmohan Singh on this and urged him to take action

Just imagine this power of Billions of Dollars  !…just US $ 17 billion FII Inflows in 2007 drove the Sensex up 47% past 20000 in 2007 and a combined US $ 36.4 b FII Inflows from 2005 to 2007 saw the Sensex move up 206 % in three years giving a CAGR of 45% !…and then in 2008 there was a huge US $ 13.1 b reversal and the Sensex decimated 53% to crash to 9647

POWER OF FII FUNDS

Just Imagine if US $ 20 b has to flow into India as FII Inflows in 2009 ! It’s just 1.33 % of the US $ 1.5 Trillion stashed away by Indians in Swiss banks…Sensex will zoom past 15000 ! giving you PE Multiples of 18…..that’s a case of Markets running ahead of Economic and Corporate Recovery….What if the Recovery does not come this year !?

Clearly Markets,in the short term, are going to be more a Function of Momentum driven by Liquidity rather than Macro or Micro Valuations

Markets will certainly entertain you in the short term…switching between being offensive to suddenly being defensive….just like what you’ll witness in the the IPL T- 20 Cricket Tournament getting underway tomorrow in South Africa or even the skewed mandate guestimates on the General Elections that are already underway

It’s going to be one Hot Summer in May !

Punters are back ! They’re addicts…and they’re going to ride this Trend !…It’s like a Surfer who is constantly surfing so he does not miss that big Wave !

If your risk profile says you sweat at night if there’s a 20% overnight drop in your portfolio,you simply don’t have the stomach for high Volatility…so stay away from Equities…atleast from riding trends and trading !…and don’t grudge those who are making quick profits doing so…their risk profile is aggressive and allows them to play this Volatility and ride this Momentum

So,most of you out there…don’t bet or punt on either the Sensex,or the IPL or even the Elections Outcome !…If it’s excitement and entertainment you want,then Go and Gamble in Goa ! atleast you would have had great fun doing so while losing !  

So the Sensex surged,ten days consecutively, to 11284 yesterday, and then quickly corrected sharply down to 10947,down 337 points today…It was just above 8000 in early March,a little over a month ago

What do you make of it ! ?

Two camps here :

The First Camp is Bullish and  talks of a Bull run happening…We’re not going to see October end Lows again….Supporting their view are two powerful indicators

• Sensex has just breached the 200 DMA and has a long way to go…China is already 14% above it’s 200 DMA…so it’s drawing Inspiration from this
• FIIs, who had reversed over US $ 2 billion in the first two months in 2009, have being buying into India in March and April to bring this figure down to close to a Billion now

This Camp clearly believes that upward Momentum will continue…They would probably affirm that the Sensex can be at 15000 even if the Dow drops to 5000!…that’s a decoupled view emerging 

The Second Camp is clearly worried and cautious at this rise in the Sensex…It’s at best a strong Bounce back in a Bear market.

They are more concerned with Valuation,both Macro and Micro, rather than Momentum…At 13 times,both Current and Forward, the Sensex is not really great Value…Looking outside the Sensex,the risk, as measured by Volatility, is getting higher.

Their fears are largely founded in the two “E’s” 

• Earnings  : Clearly Declining…Infosys has already issued a strong caution…Reliance is an exception
• Elections : No Clear Mandate Expected…If The Coalition is not headed by Congress or BJP,the stock markets will react

  Which Camp are you in ! ? 

MOMENTUM or VALUE ?

TRADER or INVESTOR ? 

TECHNICAL or FUNDAMENTAL ?

Go ahead with your Strategies…as long as you’re aware of the risks involved…I won’t grudge  you,your profits !…you took the risk for them !..Not I ! 

Simply Loved the way,Low Cap and Micro Cap Stock Advisor,Nancy Zambell puts the American Banking Crisis into sharp perspective…Her way to wealth is ,what she calls ‘Gumshoe Investing’,where she promises to grow your wealth in Stocks ” Buried under US $ 10″ …She’s of the view that the Dow may take Ten years to double from here,but her small stocks will double in quick time !

Here’s her sharp view of the American Banking Crisis

Crooked Bankers are giving Crooked Regulators advice on what to do with Crooked Assets.

Do you honestly believe that the result will be

a ) not crooked ?

b ) crooked ?

Bad Money will drive out the good…The very people who got us into the mess promise they’ll figure out a way to get us out

If you don’t exercise the law,there’s another word that comes to mind.Cover-up

Hey ! Nancy….Flyover to India…you’ll find a rich hunting ground for both,Penny stocks and Cover-ups !….we’ve got over 6000 scrips listed on BSE 

Sensex has climbed above it’s 200 DMA Levels and is currently 11200,pushing upwards…Nifty too is at 3450 levels

Caution is advised…We’re now at 13 times…Elections are on us and the mandate is unclear…Infosys has just announced lower earnings expected for FY 10…Satyam legal hassles begin playing up in June with the Upaid Trial….India’s Fiscal Deficit is already way beyond target at Rs 330000 crs + for both FY 09 that has just concluded and even that estimated for FY 10….Global Crisis continues to play out

Too many Low Cap and Mid Cap scrips continue hitting upper circuits…some would say this is a broadbased rally….I would say it’s a sure sign of being sucked yet again

Would be well advised to consider selling off into strong rallies and higher levels that this upward momentum is driving markets to,ignoring valuations

Essar Oil is a one off situation…Look what happened to Akruti

Don’t get sucked in yet again !

Assess Valuation Risks before Buying in 

Infosys has just announced their audited consolidated results for Q4 FY 09 ( Jan-March 2009) and also for the full year FY 09

For easy reference,I have summarised the performance as below

Audited Consolidated Results of INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD

 Financial Year 2008-9 ending March 31,2009

Infosys has given a flattish earnings guidance for FY 10…so this 28.5% growth in Earnings in FY 09 is unlikely to be maintained in FY 10…In fact they estimate that the EPS would drop into the range of  Rs 95.65 to Rs 101.18  

Infosys has reacted by 5% to Rs 1345…that’s a forward PE for 13 to 14

Company’s Top Management voice their caution as below

• Expect Pricing to drop by 6.5%
• Expect Operating Margins to drop by 3%
• Survey of 135 Clients that contribute to 83% of Revenues revelas that 60% say that their IT Budget will drop by 10% 
• Environment continues to be challenging
• Utilisation rate has dropped to below 68% and will remain under pressure

Clearly Infosys is expecting  tough times ahead and is being candid about it.For a first time in many years it may actually earn less in the coming year than it did in the year just concluded…I fear if the Rupee appreciates to Rs 45,the margins will come under more pressure…Currently Infosys has hedged US $ 500 Million

Don’t expect Infosys to perform brilliantly on the bourses anytime soon…at Forward PE of 13 and 14,there is a good chance  that the share price will react by atleast 20% towards Rs 1000 

Clearly the IT Sector is not going create any magic in your portfolios this Year….even if the Rupee sinks to Rs 55 and beyond,clients would leverage for further price cuts