You simply cannot replicate the Stadium Atmosphere & Experience in your Living Room or anywhere else !

My Son and Nephew, who were at Motera too and saw the Aussies being thrashed by India in the World Cup QFs,are over the moon at the Mohali Stadium tonight….”Paisa aur Mehnat more than vasool !”…….India now have beaten Pakistan in the World Cup 5 on 5….Pakistan had never lost to India at Mohali before in any Cricket match….that was till today !

Methinks India did not  win it !…rather Pakistan lost it !

India set Pakistan 261 to win with left arm pacer Wahab Raiz taking a brilliant 5 for 46 in his 10 to restrict India which at one time looked like crossing 300…what also helped Man of the Match Sachin for his 85 and India’s cause is the slipshod fielding…butter fingered Pakistanis dropped Six catches !…four of the Little Master !…most were dollies !

All that Pakistan has to do was to take it easy at 5 runs an over…..but their veterans Younis Khan and Misbah let them down !…they batted as if they were playing a Test Match ! ….Younis Khan scored 13 of 32 while Misbah left it for too late and was there till the end and scored 56 of 76 helped by some big hitting a bit too late….all the other main batsmen played to deceive…some simply threw their wickets needlessly going for crazy shots

Inexplicably Pakistan did not take batting Powerplay when they were six down and Captain Afridi and Misbah were the last recognised pair at the crease…Afridi has been the most wicket taker in this World Cup but his batting has not been much too talk about

Indian Bowlers are peaking…today only 5 bowlers were used that were meant to be used to bowl out Pakistan for 231 in the 50th over…they all shared two wickets apiece…Sachin may have got the Man of the Match Award but Sehwag’s blistering 38 of 25 in the beginning and Raina’s unbeaten 36 of 39 at the end set up the 261 for Pakistan to chase…Also four time Man of the Match Winner in this World Cup,Yuvraj made amends for his first ball dismisal on his homeground by taking two important wickets in his ten overs…Even surprise choice Nehra over Ashwin took 2 for 33 in his 10…his tenth over was the Innings 47th in the batting Powerplay…he gave just two runs and took a wicket in it ! 

My observation is that only one team was playing to win out there on the field today…and they did…both did play in good spirit and there were some lovely chummy moments between the men in blue and the men in green on the field today in front of the PMs of both countries 

Now onto Mumbai for the World Cup Finals against Sri Lanka on Saturday at Wankhede….will be there at the stadium and looking forward to Dhoni lifting the Trophy

At one time India looked like it will set Pakistan a tough 300 + target….their Bowlers got them back into the game restricting India to 260 for 9 in 50 with left arm seamer Wahab Raiz taking a brilliant 5 wicket haul…trapping Sehwag and Dhoni LBW,squaring Kohli up to be snapped up at Point and bowling Yuvraj first ball with a full toss swinging ball

At 30 overs we were @ 170 for 4…..then for the next fifteeen overs not a single boundary !…Tendulkar may have scored 85 but he was dropped Four times ! and given out LBW,only for a decision reversal and then Pakistan claimed a stumping,but replay showed he was grounded….as Shoaib Akhtar was not given a  chance to play perhaps Wahab was inspired by Afridi’s faith in him to produce this spell

However despite Wahab bowling brilliantly for his five wicket haul methinks the wicket is slowing and Dhoni may have misjudged this by picking pacer Nehra for spinner Ashwin  

Interesting game now…261 to win…challenging total on a slowing wicket but Kamran Akmal has just driven the first ball from Zaheer for four………

….let’s hope our bowlers win us the day  when our batsmen were at sea against the Pakistan bowling…dew factor expected to make the ball talk a bit

“Indiaaaaaaa ! India !…Indiaaaaaaaa ! India !”….No Excuses for No Work tomorrow !

“Sachin ! Sachin !….Sachin ! Sachin !”

Ofcourse I want India to win…..but I don’t want a Close match…we should thram Pakistan at Mohali tomorrow….coz I don’t want my heart to go too much ‘dhak dhak’ nor do I want to pull my hair in frustration !

….strong memories emerge of my cricketing life in Bahrain while I was with a leading Global Audit Firm….Cricket is my passion and I have captained school and played for my colleges ….so when I got an opportunity to play for the leading Indian Club in Bahrain in the 1980s,I was thrilled…every Friday we had matches and  believe me they were extremely competitive..we had Clubs and Teams that were predominantly  either Sri Lankan,Indian,Pakistani or English….and a few players had represented even their country or states……and so we all played to win on matting wickets…. and whenever we clashed with the top Pakistani Team there were fireworks…even violent behaviour at times…it was War out there !…and I vividly remember how we beat them in one Final and I was instrumental in the win….the first time in 17 years that we had beaten them in the Sadiq Cup,a tournament that they themselves conducted !….. our Club was kept open all night  for celebrations !….later we were rewarded with trophies and cups and gifts and even gold coins by leading Indian businessmen and even felicitated by the Indian Ambassador…and once when we were winning in some other Final,the Pakistani supporters simply could not accept this situation and so hundreds of them simply converged onto the field while the match was being played !….the Cricketing Council,dominated by Pakistanis,adjudged both teams as joint winners !….I remember I was the bowler when the crowds invaded the field and  Murtaza Ali Baig, the brother of ex India Cricketer,Abbas Ali Baig leading me aside when fights with stumps and bats  broke out and telling me to merely be a spectator…a lot of our Club Team constituted members of the ‘Thattai Bhatia’ community……. they fought back when provoked…..was aghast at this unsporting and unruly and violent outbursts from Players and spectators…on top of the blatant umpiring bias we had to contend with !….too many negative emotions pent up cross border…sad !…should not be so….   

…..so whenever India and Pakistan contest it’s a War out there …..it’s played with great Passion and Patriotism….I’ve lived this war as blogged above…… if the Stage is the World Cup Semi Finals…….it’s a Big one….don’t let anybody fool you that it’s just a game when we play !       

Nephew’s down from Auckland specially for the World Cup ….and with my Son these make for two very Lucky Guys…and Crazy Guys….and Cricket and Sachin makes them even more so !

…..courtesy friends in Anand, they were at Motera in Ahmedabad to see India beat Australia in the World Cup QFs….now courtesy from someone near Bhatinda,they are in Mohali for tomorrows’ SF between Pakistan and us…these youngters are simply brilliant and quick too at networking

….they are in India Gear with Flags ‘et’ all…told them to sport a witty message on a placard over their heads so that TV captures them for eternity and we get to see them Live at Mohali !  

…then back to Mumbai in quick time for the Finals on April 2 at Wankhede ….Energy,Excitement,Exhilaration and Enterprise seems to be the common denominator for these Lucky Cricket Crazy Guys !….wish I was as young as them !…but then Age is just a number and it’s all in the mind !

Cheers !

This is why Sachin will not be able to score his 100th 100 in Mohali this Wednesday when India meets and beats Pakistan in the World Cup Semi-Finals ! 

Afridi  :  “Hum Sachin ko kissi haal mein 100 nahin banane denge!”

Misbah : “Magar hum kaise rokenge ? Woh to gajab ke form mein hai..”

Afridi : “Hum under 100 all out ho jayenge “

The Spiritual Leader of the Million Strong Dawoodi Bohra Community,Sydena Mohammad Burhanuddin being honoured on his 100th Birthday in a Procession down Marine Drive in South Mumbai this Sunday evening,March 27,2011….A Sea of atleast a lakh of Dawoodi Bohra men and Women and Children…the Men resplendent in their traditional three piece White outfits with a white and gold topi  while the Women in their decorative rida that distinguishes them from the traditional and simple black burkha clad Muslim Women

These are mobile shots taken by my son,who was practicing with his Rock band at a band member’s residence right in the middle of Marine Drive…he had reached early at 5pm unaware of this later evening procession and Marine Drive being closed for it

My wife too was unaware and  was stuck in a horrendous traffic jam because of this Procession…the whole of Marine Drive was out of Bounds and vehicles were being diverted through Marine Lines…she returned in a foul mood cursing that there was no forewarning ,either in the Press or on TV Channels or even through Notice Boards at leading road arteries and the big junctions that lead to Marine Drive,that  Marine Drive was  closed for vehicular traffic this evening for this Procession & Celebration…and it’s been a hot day in Mumbai today…so the Heat adds to the Heat of the Moment !

….I have warned her that tomorrow,Monday,March 28,2011, and it has been announced,the same Marine Drive is going to witness a security drill ahead of the World Cup Cricket Finals at Wankhede Stadium on Saturday,April 2,2011

….and tomorrow and dayafter too the Garware Clubhouse at Wankhede Stadium will also begin distribution of the Tickets for the Finals for those who booked and paid for them earlier in the month

Come Saturday,April 2,2011…Come the Finals…… and all roads will lead to the Wankhede Stadium on Marine Drive in South Mumbai….quicker to walk to the stadium…advisable to begin the walk early morning for the day/night game so as to be early in the Q waiting to get in …so you don’t miss the toss or atleast the first ball that will be bowled at 2.30 pm….am taking it that India is making it…….

Cheers !    

Interesting,Warm  and Blessed Morning today at the Good Shepherd Church at Versova in Mumbai……

…….was invited by Captain Mascarenhas to address the Bombay Catholic Sabha on the Union Budget and Equities…..was to address them for 45 minutes to an hour followed by a Q & A Session….had prepared a special presentation……. landed up doing a two and a half hour session…..warm crowd…eager to know how to read the Budget…how will it actually impact the common man…..the problem of subsidies….one gentlemen demanded to know as to why should foodgrain subsidies be given when we have tonnes rotting in our warehouses and open grounds and we are even importing……. and the savvy among them wanted to know if there was any corelation between the Sensex Market Cap and the Total Market Cap !……many even shared some of their thoughts and experiences…many were concerned with the Wealth Tax stipulations in the new Direct taxes Code that will be implemented from April 1,2012….many wanted confirmation that Gold and Silver remain good Investments…and should one go for the ETF Option in them…….

…….showed them how the rising quantum of Corruption is playing havoc…corelated quantums with the challenges of Fiscal Defcits and Subsidies and the overhang of the Damocles Sword of rising Inflation,Interest rates and Oil Prices….

…covered in more detail Non Plan Expenditure….prominently Food,Fuel and Fertiliser subsidies…..Disinvestment…..FDI and FII Investments…..Fiscal Defict and how it is being Financed…..GDP and Inflation……GDP and Market Cap….GDP and Savings….GDP and Tax Revenues……GDP in absolute terms and in Sector wise Growth rates…. and some more

….played out the Sensex Story since inception building up a case for Investment in Equities….spoke about showing statistics ,the turbulent and challenging 2008 to 2010 period and how Equity Schemes of Mutual Funds have not been your friend…..allowing the FIIs to dominate….in fact the dependence on their flows to determine Liquidity,Sentiment,Momentum and Market Valuation ! 

…..explained the difficulty of implementing effectively and honestly the new basis of  distribution of subsidy directly in cash to those Below the Poverty Line…how will you identify those BPL ?….most do not have Bank Accounts….the Unique Identification Authority of India,under ex Infosys cofounder Nandan Nilekani, has started issuing UIDs…these carry five parameters that include biometrics..eye scan and fingerprints…but not Income Levels….UIDAI has now been asked to assist in creating a BPL Card too   

……the PM boasts that the Congress was voted to power in 2009 despite the controversial ‘Cash for Votes’ Drama in the 14th Lok Sabha in July 2008  for the Indo US Nuclear Treaty….showed them the Constitution of the current Lok Sabha with the UPA majority…..if there were mid term polls the Congress will find it extremely challenging  to retain power….and this is why precisely the Opposition parties,especially BJP are exerting huge pressure every single day on the UPA government……all of India now knows how many Zeroes are there in Rs 10000 crores and Rs 100000 crs !…thanks to the likes of ex Telecom Minister,DMK’s A Raja and their lot !

….Told them that when considering Investments in any asset class,to simply follow the new Traffic Police banners put out all over Mumbai….‘Safety is as simple as ABC….Always Be Careful’…..However at the same time to broaden their outlook so that ‘Wealth of Mind and Wealth on Money move in tandem’…most have this mindset => they react only when they have to start paying more for the same thing or when they find their neighbourhood getting more dusty and dirty,polluted and populated…need to reach out for beyond this to capture Opportunities and truly live the growing India story

An interesting morning indeed….interacting with the Members of the Catholic Sabha…both genders….enriched my insights too….and the warmth of being genuinely blessed by them at the end of my session was quite the icing on the cake !…..and that they gave me a confident Thumbs Up when I humbly requested them to look upon me as a ‘Good Shepherd’ who had come to guide the flock on the Union Budget and Investments…the address began a little past 11 am and that they stayed back till 2 pm and not just for courtesy added to the warmth !

….am glad I accepted their Invitation

Amen !  

I don’t think anyone really knows how South Africa does this !…of always and unfailingly choking in their first Knockout Phase Match in  World Cup Cricket after winning nearly all of their League matches…it’s as if they just give up when faced with a situation that if they lose the match they are knocked out !….Pressure…Character…Temperament….Big Match Psychology…Coping with History….all being tested….and South Africa repeatedly failing….they may enjoy the reputation of being a superbly professional,clinical and well knit side in all departments of the game…with some individual world best too…like Allrounder Kallis and Pacer Dale Steyn…… but today’s loss once again raised the question that in Big Matches it goes beyond being just clinically and professionally brilliant…you need emotion and passion too in abundance   

Today at Mirpur in Bangladesh Favourites and Group B Champions,South Africa lost to underdogs and Group A fourth ranked New Zealand in the third Quarter Finals of the 2011 World Cup….they were chasing a modest and gettable 222 to win and were comfortably placed at 108 for 2….and inexplicably they slumped to 146 for 8 before winding up for 172 in the 44th Over ! 

This is not to take anything away from the gritty New Zealanders….Vettori returned to captain the side and the Team fielded superbly…Man of the Match , 6 +Footer Jacob Oram timing his jump brilliantly while taking a blinder at the fence to send back Kallis and going on to take 4 wickets too

NZ move on to Colombo for the Semi Finals on Tuesday,March 29,2011…they will  take on the winners of the last QF tomorrow between fancied Sri Lanka and underdogs England…will underdogs prevail tomorrow too!?

In fact India play Pakistan at Mohali in the second Semi Finals on Wednesday,March 30,2011….so we would know who we shall face in the Finals if…no ! When we beat Pakistan….because just as World Cup History has shown that Losing becomes a Habit…South Africa choking everytime…..Winning too becomes a Habit…India has always beaten Pakistan in the World Cup

Next two Matches at Colombo…a QF tomorrow and a SF coming Tuesday….then Mohali on Wednesday for the second Semis and then Mumbai for the Finals on Saturday , April 2,2011 

Next should be an action packed Cricketing Week as the World Cup comes to an end after 43 days…it began on February 19,2011 with India and Sehwag thrashing Bangladesh…it will end on April 2,2011 with India  and both Sehwag and Sachin on his home ground thrashing whoever of NZ,Sri Lanka or England  for Dhoni to lift the 2011 World Cup…only the second in ten editions…1983 was the first when Kapil Dev was Captain 

Fun week ahead

Cheers !

Alok Industries at Rs 21…Interesting case….Deepak Jain asks what should he do as his Purchase price was Rs 32 and he’s sitting on a huge loss

Well Deepak,Alok Industries has not exactly set the bourses on fire as it has not delivered to shareholders for years….but I noticed that it was only in November 2010,a few months ago it touched a 52 week high of Rs 35 and since then has slid to Rs 20 levels….I am therefore assuming your entry into Alok Industries is fairly recent….you are concerned at this ‘huge’ loss as you put it…clearly your Risk Profile should not have allowed you to begin any big exposure in Alok….as you seem to be sweating on this fall inside months

You have four options before you and I suggest you consider them keeping in mind your risk appetite

• Immediately Exit fully at a Loss
• Immediately Reduce Exposure by exiting partially at a Loss
• Hold and Hope
• Exit fully or partially when a nice Switching Opportunity presents itself

I would seriously consider the fourth Option

An Insider…with Decades of Experience in the Textile Industry…had warned me about Alok Industries several years ago….they simply do not have any USP Product Line and have to compete at extremely tricky margins that cannot become a sustainable model even if they attempt to play the Volumes game

This is what Alok Industries appears like to me…..it exists to just about survive and earn for all stakeholders,except for Non Promoter Shareholders !…it’s got into this warp and mindset functioning and will find it difficult to exit from it and start really adding genuine value to all Shareholders who are also part owners of the Company…so simply disregard all their ‘greening’ up of the Annual Report….In fact can you recall any Alok Brand !

The Promoters,Jiwrajkas continue to remain overly optimistic and even make tall claims and boasts despite conflicting realities….have a look at their Annual Report for 2009/10….”Doing More for Less” is their assertion…Hardly…..”Doing Less for More” is more like it….”Created value beyond economic profitability for all stakeholders ” is their other assertion…judge for yourself from below

    There are over 177000 shareholders ! and Deepak you are in good company as several FIIs,DIIs and Banks and MFs are shareholders…have a look at some 

On the face of it all the above seem genuine Investments and not fronts…maybe ,Deepak,if you have access to anyone of these above shareholders,ask them why they are holding Alok Industries !?……. but it was amusing to note that in April 2009 when Alok Industries launched a huge Rights Issue of Rs 450 crs for just Rs 11 per share in an 83:40 ratio,it was subscribed just about 1.15 times !….In March 2010 it was able to do a QIP at Rs 23.32 per share for Rs 425 crs….In the Heady Years before of 2007-8 the FCCB Conversion was done at Rs 61.5875 and Preferential Allotments to Promoters  at Rs 102 per share !

Alok Industries will cross a Billion Dollar of Sales this year with a little more than one third being exported…However it continues to face these major hurdles

• High Debt on the Books….At March 31,2010 The Long Term Borrowings were Rs 6437 crs while Short Term Borrowings were Rs 2073 crs aggregating Rs 8510 crs…the Networth was Rs 2716 crs with Equity at Rs 788 crs and Reserves at Rs 1928 crs….so Leverage is a burden…..and rising Interest rates,falling operating margins will only add to this burden…..Interest Cover is struggling to stay over 1.5….would get precarious if it swerved towards 1
• Low Operating and Return Margins….Net Margins are falling and are below 6%….ROE too has been declining and struggles at below 9%…this is despite Alok Industries being an Integrated Textile Player across all segments…Cotton and Polyester Yarn,Apparel Fabrics,Garments and Home Furnishings  
• Real Estate Investments through Subsidiaries….Three Properties are under development…0.6 m sq ft at Peninsula Business Park at Lower Parel costing Rs 1275 crs…Ashford Royale Residential Complex at the Seven acre Nahur factory site of CEAT with a saleble 1.02 m sq ft costing Rs 450 crs…and 60000 sq ft at Ashford Centre at Lower Parel soting Rs 125 crs…Monies are blocked here and real estate sector is facing a huge slump in Demand at higher Levels…prices thus must drop for some sanity to return…to add to this are rising Interest rates and severe tightening in Real Estate Lending  

At March 31,2010 the Book Value was Rs 34 and with CMP at Rs 21 the PBV is 0.6….At March 31,2011 this Book should move past Rs 38 bringing PBV yet further down towards 0.5….while EPS Levels are at Rs 4 + giving a 5 PE Multiple….this is what is sustaining Investor interest and Hope and is capping the downside from Rs 21  

Alok Industries at Rs 21…Interesting Case…I would not be a buyer….and if I hold it I would be a seller only for a good switch !…Volumes are interestingly kept alive on the bourses…2.4 million shares traded on BSE today with a two week average of over 1.7 million shares a day….yet it’s a relatively low Beta scrip

Interesting Case….

….and Deepak…Hope I’ve helped you make up your mind on how to go forward with your holding in Alok Industries….do stay true to your risk profile and you’ll sleep well all nights..If you yet have a strong conviction,after revisiting and reviewing your selection basis and asumptions, that Alok Industries was a good selection even at Rs 32,then have the temperament to hold on for gains in the coming months and years…Averaging at Rs 21 will increase your exposure while reducing your holding cost…but it’s a good strategy if your conviction is very very strong….Mine is simply not…I go in this order when assessing or evaluating Investment Potential…Promoters,Business Model,Financials,Valuation…the first three have thrown up issues highlighted above…so I tend to disregard even a Low Earnings and Book Multiples Valuation as being the deciding criteria for investment…the Market is not a Fool…..when in doubt stay out

Cheers !

Phew !…Heart has started beating again….India at 180 odd for 5 with set Virat Kohli having holed out a juicy full toss from David Hussey to short midwicket,Gambhir trying desperately to get run out and succeeding the third time ! and Dhoni squaring it to Point…..last recognised pair Yuvraj and Raina at the crease and chasing 261 to win….run a ball…..could hear the Silence all over India !…the debate was yet out that Yusuf Pathan should have played intead of Raina…one more wicket would have exposed India’s lower order

But Man of the Match Yuvraj and Raina took India home sharing an unbeaten sixth wicket partnership of 74 runs….Three Times consecutive World cup Cricket ODI Champions,Australia were knocked out of the 2011 World Cup….Captain Ponting’s ton going in vain…..the match was poised to go down to the wire….but Yuvraj thrashed Bret Lee for 14 runs in an over and of another 13 runs were scored….Batting Powerplay commenced in the 46th over with a Six of the first ball of a Lee over by Raina…… Australian Players bodies sagged and it was clear they had given up the fight….In fact Ponting missed a trick….he should have tightened his field when Kohli and Gambhir were milking them for singles…..the Australians gave us 50 to 60 runs too easy

Was watching the match with friends…blew the IPL ’Mumbai Indians’ big horns (like vuvuzelas) to celebrate India’s win and had some Coke Float….

We play Pakistan in the Semi Finals in Mohali on Wednesday,March 30,2011 and Dhoni may not change this winning combination….Pathan may get a game only if Sehwag does not pass a fitness test….Sehwag was included today after passing one…Mohali wicket will need two seamers….Munaf Patel may be persisted with as Nehra has cost us a game already and temperamental Sreesanth has yet to get a game

One thing is sure….atleast one country from the subcontinent will feature in the Finals at Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai on Saturday,April 2,2011

For the QF my Son has gone to Ahmedabad with friends and my nephew from New Zealand who’s come down specially for the World Cup….he just called me saying the organisation was simply awful at the stadium…but it has been worth it…that they freaked out is an understatement…he has lost his voice !….he’s begging me to arrange tickets for the Mohali Semi Finals !…it’s a big one between two traditional rivals….Pakistan has never beaten us in the World Cups so far !….Such a clash is always a Huge Bonanza for the Organisers,the TV Channels broadcasting the match live and even I daresay for the Bookies !

…..and the Finals !?….India will make it and win it too….we have to because I hold tickets  !  

So far this ongoing ICC Cricket World Cup Q F at Motera Stadium in Ahmedabad has been going Ricky Ponting’s way…he won the Toss and elected to bat…he led from the front to score his sixth World Cup Ton and his 30th in ODIs as Australia compiled a relatively safe 260 for 6 on a relatively slow Motera Wicket….R Ashwin opened the Bowling but India got the first breakthrough only when he changed ends and bowled Shane Watson…Suresh Raina retained his place while Yusuf Pathan was dropped for Sehwag’s return

Dhoni used Seven Bowlers…except for himself,Gambhir,Raina and Sehwag,all bowled including Tendulkar and even Virat Kohli !….come to reflect all Indians can bowl !…In the past Sehwag and Raina too have been among wickets when given a chance to roll their arms……Two wickets a piece for R Ashwin,Zaheer Khan and Yuvraj…..Munaf Patel simply was ineffective and leaked too many runs

Methinks Dhoni made a tactical mistake both times when he called for Umpire Referral when batsman was adjudged Not Out….one was a LBW Appeal by bowler Munaf and the other was a caught behind by Dhoni…Review showed the height factor was huge in the first instance while the ball had grazed White’s arm in the second and not his Glove…what this meant is that India had used up it’s Two Umpire Referral Entitlements too early……so when Umpire adjudged  Ricky Ponting on 93 as Not Out when Bowler Harbhajan Singh appealed for a LBW decision,India could not ask for a referral….and Replay showed he was out…Commentators at the time were both Australian….Ian Chappell and Tom Moody…and both downplayed this by simply not commenting except opining before the replay that it must have pitched outside the stumps !…you can say Dhoni allowed Ponting to get to his Century ! 

Anyway Sehwag and Tendulkar should soon come out for India to chase 261 to enter the Semis and play Pakistan at Mohali later on this Month

Interesting Tussle ahead as genuine pacers Brett Lee,Tait and Johnson will come hard at the Indian Batsmen….we need to see the first ten overs out safely….let’s hope we don’t commit any batting harakiri !

Cheers !