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November 2011

Indian Equities Tremble…will the Sensex now break 15000 and the Nifty 4500 !?..I think they will

Indian Equities Tremble…will the Sensex now break 15000 and the Nifty 4500 !?

I think they will……

Read my views in the Scrip Standpoint Module here at

 http://www.growthavenues.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2451&Itemid=

Read my views as an Invited Guest Speaker earlier in the morning today on the Reuters Chat here at

http://www.growthavenues.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2443&Itemid=

Cheers !

 

More to Life than Mumbai & Money… A Saturday in Kolhapur… caught up on some Time and Life!

 

There’s More to Life than Mumbai & Money… A Saturday in Kolhapur… caught up on some Time and Life ! … have put up some photos we took

Just returned from a Saturday in Kolhapur in Maharashtra…10 hours drive from Mumbai..a bit more by Train… took the Sahayadri Express from originating station, Chatrapati Shivaji Station  (VT Station) in South Mumbai at 5.50 pm on Friday Evening and reached Kolhapur at 6 am on Saturday

…was escorting daughter to the pre Nationals State Camp… she’s all of 16 and has been appointed Captain of the Maharashtra State u 19 Schools & Colleges Girls Football Team for the 57th Schools Nationals in Port Blair, Andaman & Nicobar Islands from December 1, 2011

…and Kolhapur…. what a laid back town… Maratha & Shivaji Pride is clearly visible…. Mumbai has spoilt us for Time and Money both !… Lodges and Hotels are plenty available and range from just Rs 250 a day for a Non Ac Room to the high Rs 3199 a day for Double Occupancy in the AC Executive Room (Superior Rooms are pricier) in the three star Victor Palace… Food is reasonably priced but can be spicy… remember the Veg Kohlapuri Dish on Mumbai Menu cards !…. and Rickshaws are the mode for Local Travel and easily available.. Private Vehicles are available too on very reasonable rates as we found out

A great travelling and actually a logical tip… if you want guidance on where to stay and eat and what to see and where to shop check with the locals… our rickshaw driver from the Station, Uttam, guided us to three Hotels before we  checked in to one that cost us just Rs 600…It had no restaurant but did serve us superb tea…. After a Hot water Bath, we checked with the reception guy as to where we could have a decent breakfast… ‘Prathana’ is the place… simply walked two minutes to it…. Not airconditioned but serves great South Indian Idli and vada and Dosa and other fast food and Fresh Fruit Juices… serves Chinese and Punjabi too at Meal Times in their AC Dining hall on the first floor… then checked with the Counter guy for booking a Vehicle for the Day… Dinesh… he arranged a Sumo for Rs 1000 for 12 hours 10.30 am to 10.30 pm… Rahul was the extremely accommodating and knowledgable driver…and there’s no screaming and yelling drivers in Kolhapur…Traffic courtesy is cool with a “You First” attitude read more

Two Great Pieces of Advice….How to Choose an Equity Advisor ! and how an Equity Advisor should choose or deal with various Client Types !

Two Great Pieces of Advice here…Thanks to two of my regulars on my network ,KC and RH for this blog

How to Choose an Equity Advisor !

and

How an Equity Advisor should choose or deal with various Client Types !

How does one choose an Equity Advisor !?

Quite simply,the Advisor should know the way,himself !

Well illustrated by this simple logic of a child straight from his heart….

A little boy was waiting for his mother to come out of
the grocery Store. As he waited, he was approached by a man who asked, “Son, can
you tell me where the Post Office is?”

The little boy replied, “Sure!
Just go straight down this street a couple blocks and turn to your
right.”

The man thanked the boy kindly and said, “I’m the new pastor in
town. I’d like for you to come to church on Sunday. I’ll show you how to get to
Heaven.”

The little boy replied with a chuckle. “Awww, come on…You
don’t even know the way to the Post
Office.”

How an Equity Advisor should choose or deal with various Client Types !

Simply reproducing Joshua Brown’s thought provoking take on this…a guy who’s walked the talk…Me too Joshua…but let’s give all Clients credit for testing our Values and Convictions and how consistent are we ourselves in these !

 

The Ten Clients from Hell (And How to Cope)

 By Joshua Brown 

 

   

 

I am very fortunate as a financial advisor to have an amazing group of clients I work with each day. I consider it an honor to have been given this responsibility by the households I am responsible for; helping people invest for the future is my life’s work and the relationships I have now with clients mean a lot to me both professionally and personally. But it was not always thus.

There was a time when I would take the business anywhere I could get it. As a young man in the industry that was the job, and in my ambition I foolishly believed that I could work with anyone so long as he or she had investable assets. Boy was I in for an education!

I learned the hard way that there are some client types that no advisor should take on if he or she can help it. I’ve made a list below for young men and women in the wealth management industry to learn from—and veteran advisors to knowingly chuckle at.

Here are the Ten Clients from Hell and how to cope with them:

1. The Sophisticate: There are some investors who believe simple is stupid and that any investment portfolio run on their behalf must be both complex and intricate in order to be worthy of their time and money. They are more concerned with process than they are with outcome; hitting financial goals over time takes a backseat to executing put spreads and iron condor option trades.

How to Cope: Ask the client what is more important to them: comfortable retirement or satisfying intellectual curiosity through experimental trade expression.

2. The Armchair Quarterback: This client will second guess almost everything you do on their behalf and will often suggest alternatives to your own suggestions, no matter how much research you have done. Armchair quarterbacks believe they are simply making conversation; they typically don’t mean to drive the advisor crazy even if that ends up being the net effect over months and months. read more

Indian IPOs in 2010 and 2011 : Great Wealth Destroyers !

I was amused,annoyed and angered when I read two recent Press Articles on IPOs…both featured in the Financial Express

The First stated how SEBI is planning to bring back Retail Investors to IPOs by reducing listing day from 15 to three ! Sebi to help bring small investors back to IPOs … So now small investors can die earlier !…..what about the Quality of Companies,rather the lack of it !?….Bring back the Controller of Capital Issues,I say !  

The Second article was an interview of the Chairman of the Association of Merchant Bankers,Mr Sanjay Sharma.He is the Head of Equities at Deutsche Equities,India … Blame market, not pricing, for IPO woes he asserts !…Good Lord !…by his logic Aster Silicates and Tirupati Inks which have eroded over 85%  (see List Below) should now be viewed as Potential Multibaggers and not Multishredders !

110 IPOs have come in 2010 and 2011….There has been an erosion in the Share Price from the IPO Price in three out of four issues with 84 Scrips quoting in the Red

Have a look at the TOP TEN IPO LOSERS List below…Price Erosion is from 82% to 89%….All issues ,except D B Realty, has seen strong Retail participation with high levels of oversubscription….allottees have been stripped violently and have been left with just some money to catch the bus home !

Now with SEBI trying to reduce the Listing Day to just Three Days from the Date of IPO Close,retail investors can hope to die quicker….It’s a Game where the Winner is the one who has lost the most in the shortest possible time  too in many cases !

TOP TEN IPO LOSERS : WEALTH DESTROYERS IN 2010 & 2011

Company

IPO PRICE (Rs)

Price
14/11/2011

(Rs)

%
Erosion

Issue Size (Rs Cr)

Sub-
scribed Times

Qualified Instit-
utions

Sub-
scribed Times Retail

Aster Silicates Ltd

118

13

(89)

53

4.68

0.0

7.4

D B Realty Ltd

468

61

(87)

1500

2.63

4.5

0.4

Tirupati Inks Ltd

43

6

(86)

52

9.20

1.8

12.6

Bharatiya Global Infomedia Ltd

82

12

(85)

55

1.47

0.0

5.1

RDB Rasayans Ltd

79

12

(85)

36

1.45

0.0

4.0

SKS Microfinance Ltd

985

150

(85)

1629

11.44

20.4

2.8

Taksheel Solutions Ltd

150

23

(85)

83

2.95

0.2

6.2

Cantabil Retail India Ltd

135

22

(84)

105

1.98

1.7

2.6

Sea TV Network Ltd

100

17

(83)

50

10.51

1.7

7.4

Syncom Healthcare Ltd

75

13

(82)

56

4.86

1.0

6.2

Go to  http://www.growthavenues.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1773&Itemid= For a Full Picture by me ,with Standpoint,Performance,Subscription ,Listing Day Price Acrobatics and % Price Movements subsequently of all the 110 Companies that came out with an IPO in 2010 and 2011 

If You’re Busy, You’re Doing Something Wrong: The Surprisingly Relaxed Lives of Elite Achievers

Interesting Read….

 

If You’re Busy, You’re Doing Something Wrong: The Surprisingly Relaxed Lives of Elite Achievers

 

This study sheds some light on this paradox. It provides empirical evidence that there’s a difference between hard work and hard to do work:

  • Hard work is deliberate practice. deliberate practicethe uncomfortable, methodical work of stretching your ability.It’s not fun while you’re doing it, but you don’t have to do too much of it in any one day (the elite players spent, on average, 3.5 hours per day engaged in deliberate practice, broken into two sessions). It also provides you measurable progress in a skill, which generates a strong sense of contentment and motivation. Therefore, although hard work is hard, it’s not draining and it can fit nicely into a relaxed and enjoyable day.
  • Hard to do work, by contrast, is draining. It has you running around all day in a state of false busyness that leaves you, like the average players from the Berlin study, feeling tired and stressed. It also, as we just learned, has very little to do with real accomplishment.

This analysis leads to an important conclusion. Whether you’re a student or well along in your career, if your goal is to build a remarkable life, then busyness and exhaustion should be your enemy. If you’re chronically stressed and up late working, you’re doing something wrong. You’re the average player , not the elite. You’ve built a life around hard to do work, not hard work.

The solution  is as simple as it is startling: Do less. But do what you do with complete and hard focus. Then when you’re done be done, and go enjoy the rest of the day

Kingfisher Airlines virtually Grounded by Debt and Share Price sinks below Rs 20…Fears come alive of Borrowing on the Brand

Kingfisher Airlines…Fears come alive of Borrowing on the Brand….The struggling Airline is virtually grounded with Heavy Debt … some taken even against the Brand…..Pilots are leaving enmasse and flights are being cancelled daily…Share Price has sunk below Rs 20

http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/SectorsAviation/Kingfisher-seeks-Govt-bailout-40-more-flights-cancelled/Article1-767695.aspx

Management and Mallya are putting up a Brave face…will have to quickly come up with atleast Rs 500 crs and in the next few months raise over Rs 1000 crs to stay in the Air…With the Intangibles Channel of the Brand now being exhausted to raise funds,the only way for Mallya is to either sell out the Airline or sell or pledge Group Assets to raise funds

The King of Good Times is now begging the Government to bail his Airlines out in Pauper Times !…Ironic !…hope the Government does not fall for this again !….Of course there is a larger Picture involved to support our Aviation Industry but First the King needs to infuse some more himself by leveraging or selling his Group Assets…IPL…Formula One…Kingfisher and United Group Real Esate Assets…their kingfisher dhun “Oooh la la la la aey oh!” has whittled down to just “Aey Oh!”….and I’ll let you on to something here…the last time the Banks lend to the Airlines,the Agreed Arrangement Fees to an Intermediary related to one of the Lender Banks was not paid in full…in fact was reduced from Rs 20 crs to just Rs 1.5 crs….Now ! Now !…more than meets the eye here too !

Had warned in July 2009 that while Borrowing on the Brand was interesting,it did throw up some huge risks

No Airline…No Brand !….How then would a lender against the Brand, State Bank of India recover it’s dues of @ Rs 2000 crs !…What good is the Brand in such a situation !…you can’t sell it to a rival airline ! can you ! ?

Check out earlier Blogs on this

Auditors warn of ‘Kingfisher Airlines’ being a ‘going concern’ problem in the making!

Thursday, September 15th, 2011

Borrowing against Brands !…Interesting,but Risky area opening out !

Thursday, July 23rd, 2009

Some Wednesday Wanderings !…May’s Heat Wave causing a Lot of Bouncing !…Kingfisher Airlines Cheques…Adnan Sami…Tata’s JLR Debt woes forcing sale of TCS Shares…and our Sensex !

Wednesday, May 6th, 2009

 

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