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A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears

“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”

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November 2014

How just Rs 8000 Turns into Rs 1.3 crs in Stocks in 8 Years ! ~ Dreams can be Reality too !

😆 How Rs 8000 Turns into Rs 1.3 crs in Stocks in 8 Years by entering & exiting in just Three Stocks one after the other !

Dreams can be Reality too ! 

😯 July 2006 ~ Buy 10 Shares of MMTC at Rs 800 = Rs 8000

😮 November 2007 ~  Sell 10 Shares of MMTC at Rs 50000! = Rs 500000

That’s a Crazy Great Return of 6150% in just over a year !

😉 Take a Two Year + Break from November 2007 to February 2010 living of  Work Income + FD Interest on Rs 500000 !

🙂 February 2010 ~ Buy 2500 Shares of Jubilant Foodworks (Dominos) at Rs 200 = Rs 500000

😮 November 2013 ~ Sell 2500 Shares of Jubilant Foodworks at Rs 1300 = Rs 3250000

That’s another great return of 550% in three and a half years !

😀 December 2013 ~ Buy 10000 Shares of Force Motors at Rs 325 = Rs 3250000

😛 September 2014 ~ Sell 10000 Shares of Force Motors at Rs 1300 = Rs 1.3 Crores ! 

Now yet again a superb 300% Return inside a year !

How  😎 is this 162400 % Return in & out of just Three Stocks in just over Eight years  !

As Easy as this !

That’s the Lure of Equity for you !

Required Attributes & Skills ~ Faith in Equities, Conviction,Cool Selection,Patience,Temperament &  Timely Entry & Exit

The Ultimate Gigantic Returns have their base in that Crazy Initial Return of 6150% in MMTC !

Whats the Mantra ! ?

Look for a Big Company with a Small Price !….somebody will bale it out as the Stakes are too high for all Stakeholders to let the Company die !  

😈  I’m not talking about Kingfisher Airlines ! though it’s available at just over Rs 1 and just over Rs 100 crs for the Full Airline in case anyone dares !

🙄 Of Course Rs 800 for MMTC is not a Small Price ! but it did climb to Rs 50000 in just over a year  !

The Power of Compounding in Equities is the real Mantra ! 

😆

Wednesday Morning ~ Sombre Thoughts on 26/11 & Dangers of Cricket

Got up early this Wednesday morning with some Sombre Thoughts on 26/11 & the Dangers of Playing Cricket on & off the Field……

26/11 ~ Six Years ago on November 26,2008 on this very Day which too happened to be a Wednesday, Mumbai was shaken to it’s core by a Terrorist Attack on South Mumbai Targets that killed 164 & wounded 308 and scarred Millions of Mumbaikars…among those killed were quite a few known to my family and me….Praying for all & hope such a tragedy never occurs again

Cricket ~ Danger on the Playing Field ~Phil Hughes the South Australian Opening Batsman was felled by a Bouncer at the SCG and is in a Coma & on Life Support…fervently praying for him

…brought alive a Memory of the mid 1980s when I was just 23 and in Bahrain and while bowling at the Bahrain  Sports Club (now Indian Club) Practice Nets on a Matted Pitch I broke the Nose of a team mate who was batting…he bled profusely and had to fly to Mumbai for Surgery …he was really good about it…God Bless him…all rallied around me to say it was not my fault though I was feeling terrible and must have profusely apologised a million times…can really understand how Sean Allott,the NSW Bowler who bowled that Bouncer to Phil Hughes must be feeling right now…much worse than even I did

Danger off the Playing Field….also aghast at the dangers off the Cricketing Pitch that BCCI’s behaviour & Actions have raised to a feverish Pitch and Supreme Court has had to step in…There is Corruption in the Game we Know….Matches are Fixed we know…Betting is Rampant we know…Clear Conflict of Interest Exists we know….Yet these BCCI B@#$%^&* continue to behave without basic morals  and without shame …there continues political patronage and godfather rules….even Mudgal Committee has exposed a Pandora Box in a report that is yet to be made public…Why has BCCI postponed it’s AGM again and again only to facilitate N Srinivasan who remains under cloud ? Why are so many State Cricketing Bodies supporting N Srinivasan despite knowing it is wrong to do so !? Why are Stalwarts Ex  Test Cricketers & Commentators keeping silent in this unholy mess!? Clearly their Bread is buttered by being on BCCI Payrolls !….Why are Top Indian Cricketers being shielded and continue to don the India Cap despite their wrongdoings !? Why is Supreme Court not yet naming these Cricketers named in the Mudgal Report !?…we all know who they are but till names are released all Cricketers will be viewed with suspicion….The Game of Cricket is bigger than the Cricketers who play it read more

Freeloading Promoters ~ Loved this Address by the RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan

Freeloading Promoters ~ Love the RBI Governor,Raghuram Rajan’s Strong Speech at the Third Verghese Kurien Lecture at the Institute of Rural Development Anand yesterday

resonates with the tagline of my blog “In India, Companies may fall sick but Promoters rarely do !”

Here are some superb extracts from the Address as linked above

” The Promoter enjoys riskless capitalism -even in these times of very slow growth,how many large promoters have lost their homes or have had to curb their lifestyles despite offering personal guarantee to lenders?” 

“We need a change in mindset, where the wilful or non-cooperative defaulter is not lionized as a captain of industry, but justly chastised as a freeloader on the hardworking people of this country,”

“In India, too many large borrowers insist on their divine right to stay in control…”

“…the promoter threatens to run the enterprise into the ground unless the government, banks, and regulators make the concessions that are necessary to keep it alive. And if the enterprise regains health, the promoter retains all the upside….!

“No wonder government ministers worry about a country where we have many sick companies but no “sick” promoters.”

“I also don’t want to argue against risk taking in business. If business does not take risks, we will not get architectural marvels like our new international airports, the “developed-for-India” low cost business model in the telecom sector, or our world class refineries. Risk taking inevitably means the possibility of default. An economy where there is no default is an economy where promoters and banks are taking too little risk. What I am warning against is the uneven sharing of risk and returns in enterprise, against all contractual norms established the world over – where promoters have a class of “super” equity which retains all the upside in good times and very little of the downside in bad times, while creditors, typically public sector banks, hold “junior” debt and get none of the fat returns in good times while absorbing much of the losses in bad times.

“The public believes the large promoter makes merry because of sweet deals between him and the banker. While these views have gained currency because of recent revelations of possible corruption in banks, my sense is that Occam’s Razor suggests a more relevant explanation – the system renders the banker helpless vis-a-vis the large and influential promoter.” read more

Relaxed Weekend thus far ~Inspired by Friends & Food & Fab Views

Golf Course View from the Library

Relaxed  Extended Weekend thus far……

Thursday Night….enjoyed  dinner with a couple clients and friends that ended with a sinful Apricot Pluf and  Fresh Anjeer & Walnut Icecream

Friday Night….chilled  with good friends over a lovely dinner 

Noon Saturday…. lots to ponder in solitude…rouble crashing 23%,’Swachh’ India and ‘UnSwachh’ BCCI,Subdued Gold and Oil Prices and who’s behind this,Maharashtra Politics,’Make in India’,Sensex at 28000…gathered and penned thoughts inspired by the Golf Course view from the top from the Library…followed it by a great Lunch that began with Pumpkin soup with Pine Nuts & a Rocket Lettuce,Walnut and Pears Salad and ended with Terrine with Strawberry coulis !…all in soulful solitude

Later on Saturday evening…. Wife & I checked out Vir Das’ ‘History of India’ 90 min Comedy Act….it’s been running for quite some time now ….quite ‘Vir’ and hilarious…finally managed to catch the show at Sophia’s….caught up with friends too….we were all in splits…laugh riot…it’s stand out stand up stuff from Vir..he’s in a league of is own…some of his act is written by stand up comedians Rohan Joshi & Tanmay Bhatt….Vir’s new Act is ‘Battle of the Sexes’ and producer Ashwin Gidwani tells us that the guys and girls sit separately in the audience for a good reason….surely will catch up with this new act too….alright Vir have plugged both your shows so you can now send the commission…..   😆 …followed this with  a really late dinner of Mushroom & Almond Soup and Water Chestnuts in Soya and Balsamic Mushrooms and  Balinese Curry & Rice with friends

Morning Sunday…. had a Hot Strong Force Water Shower…recommend it strongly as a cheaper and more invigorating alternative to massage…followed by a Healthy Akoori on Toast Breakfast with Fresh Orange Juice and Strong Pot of Mint Tea…also managed a Masala Dosa !

Healthy Breakfast of Akoori on Toast & Fresh Orange Juice with Pot of Strong Mint Tea

 …now ready for a light Sunday late afternoon bite of  Pringles with fresh Garlic Mushroom Dip 

Maybe Catch the Epic ‘Interstellar’ this Sunday evening

…and tomorrow is another week that begins with great expectations of one of our recos running away  and welcoming new clients !   😆

You Guys too hope are enjoying the weekend and will have a fruitful week coming up read more

Japanese Single Malt Whisky rated the Best in the World !….Scotland ?

Yamazaki Sherry 2013

Japanese Single Malt Whisky rated the Best in the World !….Scotland ?

First Thought was a Chuckle really that this must be the El Nino Climate Change Effect !

Whisky Expert Jim Murray has picked Suntory’s Yamazaki Single Malt Sherry Cask 2013 as the best hailing it as “near indescribable genius and possessing a nose of exquisite boldness and as thick,dry and as rounded as a snooker ball “

For the first time Scottish Whiskies have failed to make the Top Five in Murray’s respected guide

The Bottle costs Sterling Pounds 101.28 online at www.masterofmalt.com and it’s Sold out !

Want a Peg ! ?

That’s Rhetoric !

Update on HOV Services @ Rs 178 ~ Sense Little Downside & Huge Upside yet

I have blogged  twice extensively on HOV Services last month in October 2014 here & here

Now here’s an update

November 6,2014 Update

 As expected the deal has been approved in the Postal Ballot  and even the merger of SourceHOV and BancTec has gone through The Share Price zoomed to Rs 187 and closed at Rs 178 yesterday Apparently some  Minority Shareholders of HOV Services  have approached the Company Law Board to question the Valuation of SourceHOV and force the Company’s Board to be more fair and appoint another Valuer and raise the Valuation Citigroup had sold off Majority Stake to Rohatyn Group in the last quarter of Calendar Year 2013 Interesting to note that in December 2013 itself and in a move to probably comply with the strict Volcker Act,Citigroup’s Citi Venture Capital International (CVCI)  was sold off to the New York based Rohatyn Group   ...along with this top CVCI Personnel moved to the newly set up TRG Group within the Rohatyn Group…one of the names was Anil Khanna …the deal was actually announced earlier in September 2013 BancTec was acquired by the HOV Promoter Group HandsOn in April 2014 Then in April 2014 this year BancTec itself was bought out by the HandsOn3 Group who are also the Promoters of the Indian listed Company HOV Services  Rohatyn Group has now just sold off full majority stake to the HOV Promoter HandsOn Group in November 2014 …….and now on November 4,2014 Rohatyn Group has divested it’s entire majority holding in SourceHOV to the HandsOn Global Group,the new name for HandsOn3 Thus the HandsOn Group is now the Majority Shareholder and probably to soon become Sole Shareholder,if they have their way of the Merged huge Global Entity of SourceHOV & BancTec  As per Moodys Rohatyn deal sell off was @ US $ 354 m…Thus for their 68% they got this much valuing SourceHOV therefore at US $ 520 m and thus this means the HOV Services 26.1% Stake should be at least US $ 135 m ! The combined entity will have Revenues of over US $ 900 m and a new Credit line of US $ 1.1 billion committed by Morgan Stanley Rohatyn Group may have sold to the Promoters HGM Group for their own reasons….just because they did so at the same price the Indian Listed Company’s Investment Stake of 26.1 % has been approved too for divestment to the HGM Group  does not mean it is a fair value !…there may have been a clear conflict of interest and vested interests involved in an undervaluation The CFO of HOV Services who has signed the Notifications to the Exchanges is sharpening his skills at stonewalling and defending the Undervaluation !…when Minority Shareholders manage to connect with him they get a stock reply ” Why are you so concerned  when even the Majority Shareholder is exiting at the same valuation !”….Wow ! Mr CFO ! at one time even the Whole world thought the Earth was Flat ! NEW INDEPENDENT VALUATION REQUIRED OF THE NEW MERGED ENTITIES SourceHOV & BancTec How can the Indian Company divest it’s 26.1%  Pre Merger Stake in SourceHOV for just US $ 95 million ! Come On  Exchanges,SEBI and CLB !…..Protect the Minority Shareholders !….or is there a HandsOff Approach to the HandsOn Promoters !? Don’t let the Promoters  get away with this undervaluation of the Investment stake being sold to themselves !

Let a New Independent Valuation be worked out of the merged Entities SourceHOV & BancTec…it now is one of the World’s largest TPS Service Providers read more

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