Posts Tagged ‘Sesa Goa’

Adieu 2010…Welcome 2011….Hope we get to welcome a ‘Magic’ Stock yet again !

Friday, December 31st, 2010

Adieu 2010…Welcome 2011

They Say Our Life’s Expectancy is measured by the Number of Breathes we take…there’s a finite number pre ordained for each one of us….so here’s wishing that you take fewer Breathes in 2011,so that you live longer !

So Breathe Deeply and make your New Year Resolutions….and Breathe Deeper when you break them !

Given you some really huge Multibaggers in the 21st Century…Matrix Labs,Mercator Lines,Essar Oil,Sagar Cements,ICSA,Sesa Goa to name a few….have positioned you with a few more for the coming years

Let’s Hope 2011 throws up a real ‘Magic’ & ‘Miracle’ Stock up for you that makes you ‘breathless’! (so you live longer too!..refer up) and revs your Equity Portfolio up so fast that you can take an early retirement !….Maybe I’ll spot one for clients yet again…Now ! Now ! I said Maybe !

….but what I do promise on my blog is to keep warning you to stay away from Companies that seduce or are simply scandalously overpriced !…like Emami Infrastructure was when it got listed on the demerger !…High of Rs 600 on the NSE !…. and at Rs 100 + it was widely thought to have stabilised…it’s down to Rs 35-Rs 45 range now  within months !   

Cheers !   

Sesa Goa declares stellar Q1 FY 11 Results… yet many`Experts’ say ‘Sell’ or ‘Don’t Buy’ at Rs 350… Why ?

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010

Expected this… a fabulous Q1 FY 11 for Sesa Goa… It’s best first quarter in history.. a consolidated net Profit of Rs 1302 crs giving an EPS of over Rs 15 on an Equity of Rs 85.97 crs (FV Rs1)… this was achieved due to higher Iron Ore Prices in the Quarter and good offtake by China and consolidation of Dempo Companies acquired in June 2009

So what’s prompted many leading FIIs to call a ‘Sell’ on Sesa Goa ?….. Prices have eased off and China is expected to slowdown offtake…. moreover it is widely expected that the Government will introduce a Special Tax on Windfall Profits just as has been proposed in Australia or may raise royalty rates…. and may even take an extreme step of curtailing or banning exports of iron ore…. Moreover Sesa Group is facing an investigation from the Serious Fraud Investigation Office for mismanagement, malpractices, financial and other irregularities ….. there is also the question of the pending amalgamation from April 1, 2005 of subsidiary Sesa Industries with Sesa Goa.. Sesa Group has moved the Supreme Court after the High Court had overturned an earlier order in it’s favour and the validity of the scheme has been extended to October 31, 2010…. an aggrieved shareholder had filed the case and Sesa suspects that this shareholder too is behind  the SFIO Investigation

In light of all of this the key question is whether  profits can be sustained at these levels in the rest of FY 11 to create a net of over Rs 4500 crs and take FY 11 EPS past Rs 50 or are we going to witness a cramped three quarters remaining in FY 11 where the aggregate profits of Q2 to Q4 would equal Q1 Profits and give a total net of just Rs 2500 crs thereabouts and an EPS of nearer Rs 30 ?

So we have a probable EPS range of Rs 30 to Rs 50 + to contend with in FY 11… At the current Rs 350 Share Price we then get a Forward FY 11 Multiple of 7 to 12 to live within…. taking a fairly conservative multiple of 10  we then get a Share Price range of Rs 300 (EPS 30) and Rs 500 (EPS 50)…. so we can say that there should be a limited downside from here… and there is a strong case for upside given such a strong Q 1 FY 11 and strong Current Consolidated Reserves of over Rs 9136 crs ( Rs 7834 at March 31, 2010 + Q 1 FY 11 PAT Rs 1302 crs) at June 30, 2010 giving a Book Value of Rs 106 that should cross Rs 120 this year as Reserves march past Rs 10000 crs… that’s a Book Multiple of under 3

One FII has just made a positive call with a  target of Rs 440 for Sesa Goa

Profits are real… and Cash Flow is strong… We yet continue our exposure to Sesa Goa…I t has rewarded clients splendidly in the past two years from cum bonus and split levels of Rs 3200 in July 2008… that’s a cost of Rs 160 ex bonus and ex split…. it had scaled near Rs 500 after hitting depths of Rs 60 last year… it ‘s retracted on above concerns to current levels of Rs 350

Interesting FY 11 for Sesa Group… Real Windfall Profits and Real Concerns…. Interesting Play

Cheers !

Sesa Goa drops 20% from all time high of Rs 490+ to below Rs 400…It’s a high Beta scrip…so volatility is expected

Wednesday, May 5th, 2010

Dear Madhu,Hope this updated view on Sesa Goa answers your query you just posed on another blog….I’ve put it up as a seperate blog as it will serve a wider audience

In 2009,Sesa Goa had scaringly dropped to Rs 60 from levels of near Rs 175…and then burst away to record an all time high of Rs 490+….and in a matter of a few days now it has dropped below Rs 400

So what’s what’s unnerving Investors to unwind their positions in Sesa Goa?…a few weeks ago it was the ban on import of Iron ore of Fe content 60 and below announced by the Traders Association in China….I had blogged that this would not really impact Sesa Goa too much….but investors were unnerved and began reducing exposure…Price dropped to below Rs 430…and then came a bombshell from the Australian government…actually they had warned in January of sweeping tax changes in the Mining Industry…From July 2012 the Australian Mining Industry will face a higher tax of 40%  on the ‘super profits’ that they are making….US $ 2.8 Billion is expected to be the Tax collection from this Industry in 2012…BHP Billiton,Australia’s and the worlds biggest Mining Company expects their average tax rate on operating profits to go up to 57%……Mining Sector Sources opine it will lead to rising iron ore prices and China will have to absorb this…it may deter though,Overseas investments in Australia and impact the country’s competiveness….As expected,this tax hike announcement is facing very strong opposition in Australia…One view is that it is not fair to tax Mining Companies higher as their record profits have saved Australia the blushes in the Financial Mess that has enveloped the Developed Nations….also it is unfair to first allow billions of dollars in as overseas investments in ongoing mining projects and then hike the tax rate on profits that are expected to be generated  

China appears to be in a tearing hurry and is raking up steel capacity to record highs and therefore the demand for Iron Ore is robust and unabated…as long as this situation continues,Iron Ore Companies will continue making ‘super profits’….Sesa Goa is no exception here….just hope India does not follow suit like Australia and ramps up the tax rate on ‘super profits’ of Indian Mining Companies….what it has done ,however,is raise the export tax from 10% to 15% on iron ore slumps to try and ensure adequate domestic supply of Iron ore as India is on track to more than double it’s steel production from the current 54 million tonnes to a record 124 Million Tonnes in 2012/13

Sesa Goa had dropped today to below Rs 370 levels but recovered to close just a shade under Rs 400…It can go down further only in two scenarios

  • Iron Ore Prices drop to levels of US $ 50/t…..this can happen if China reverses it current ongoing Strategy to ramp up Steel Production and either stops or significantly reduces Importing Iron Ore….unlikely in the short term
  • India takes a cue from Australia and  announces super tax rates on the super profits of Iron Ore Miners…unlikely   

The Current CIF export to China Spot Price of Iron Ore Mines with high deposits of Fe Grade 63.5 has reached US $ 190/ton …compare this with the quarterly contractual price of US $ 110 per ton that was struck by the World majors with Japanese and South Korean Importers just a few weeks ago….and Sesa Goa is a Spot Player and exports mines even in the 61% to 63 % Fe Grade

Sesa Goa should record ‘super profits’ this year…In fact it’s profits this year may double to match the revenue levels of 2009/10 ! it sold over a Billion dollar of Iron ore and with high operating margins it recorded a strong profit of nearly half a billion dollar….It’s Reserves are Rs 7126 crs and the Equity is Rs 83 crs (FV Rs 1)…giving a networth of over Rs 7200 crs…this should cross Rs 10000 crs this year as EPS levels of Rs 26 surge towards Rs 40 and beyond…..Diluted Equity will be Rs 90 crs after FCCB Full Conversion   

So as it stands,I’m not too worried about Sesa Goa….yes, one may not initiate fresh buying and one could reduce exposure given the recent adverse announcements that has created an air of uncertainty on the level of ‘super profits’ going forward and the fact that Valuations are not exactly cheap in this context of changing dynamics

It was a flat 100 meters sprint race for Sesa Goa…leading from start to finish…You would have sensed my excitement in my Sesa Goa blogs of April 8 and April 9,2010……It’s now more like a 110 meters Hurdles…Sesa is still leading…At Rs 60 last year,Sesa Goa was a screaming buy,available at less than projected 2009/10 Book of Rs 80…Book Value is actually Rs 86 and will surge to Rs 120 + this year….The current Rs 400 Share Price level is over three times projected 2010/11 book and under 10 times Forward Earnings Multiple….not exactly a bargain now…….however,with proven iron ore reserves of 250 million tons,the embedded present value incremental when added to book at current margins, gives a Price Indicator of over Rs 700

But you’ll have to live with the relatively higher Volatility in Sesa Goa…It currently is a victim of both macro (as Sensex retreats from near 18000 levels to 17000 levels inside a month) and micro ( adverse developments and announcements in India,China and Australia affecting the Company) sentiment…….if your risk profile does not allow for this,then you should simply book your profits and exit….if you’ve actually entered at Rs 400 + levels…well you shouldn’t have as you were ignoring your risk profile

Sesa Goa should play out an interesting second half in 2010 and remains a compelling story…though more suited for Aggressive Profile Investors

Will keep a strong eye on it      

Sesa Goa drops from Rs 490 to below Rs 470 reacting on News of a Chinese Ban on Imports of Iron Ore below 60% FE content…Should it cause any Worry?

Friday, April 9th, 2010

Just last evening there was a News release that China’s Iron Ore Trading Association has banned it’s Members from Importing Iron Ore with a Fe Content of below 60%

Will this affect Sesa Goa?….Markets think so and have dropped the Share Price from Rs 490+ levels to below Rs 470 levels as I blog

If at all Sesa Goa will be impacted,It should merely be marginally….. and should not panic you to exit your Holdings…here are two brief reasons for this

  • The Ban does not cover the Actual Users, the Chinese Steel Mills… and their Licensed Agents…They can continue to import directly their requirements…Sesa Goa will cater direct
  • Sesa Goa deals also in Iron Fines with a Fe content of 61% to 63% 

China’s iron ore import needs are middle and low grade fines  with Fe content of 63.5% and below…Sesa Goa caters to this….Brazil exports largely high grade Ore

China imported 106 million tonnes of Iron Ore from India last year…40% of this was low grade Iron ore….Sesa Goa supplied over 12.5 million tonnes of total Imports from India,comprising 84% of it’s sales of 15 million tonnes

This latest move by the Chinese Trading Association is a twin attempt to influence Iron Ore Prices and purge their Traders ilk of many malpractices 

With the compelling Chinese Demand for Iron Ore,the pressure on Iron Ore Prices is unlikely to abate,unless China itself halts all Imports…unlikely

World Steel Production is expected to move towards 1500 million tonnes in the next year or two  and China’s share of it has grown  from 17 %  in 2001 to over 40% share currently

Where will China get the Iron Ore it needs ! ?….If Trading has been banned,the Mills will approach the International Suppliers directly…so the question is that by eliminating middlemen,will the Prices of  Iron Ore fall ?…if so,then by how much ?…. a lot depends on the long term contract prices being negotiated with Rio Tinto,Vale and BHP Billiton…Japan has already signed at 90% higher price levels than last year…China,the main buyer, is resorting to arm twisting yet again to get Iron Ore prices to drop…they tried it last year too…but in vain…I suspect their efforts this year too may fail….they realise they have no alternative to importing the Iron Ore…unless they choose to curtail Steel Production…this would affect their GDP Rate…they would think twice before letting their  GDP Growth rate drop

Monitoring Developments to protect your Sesa Goa Holdings is essential…but this ban should not cause you to exit Sesa Goa….It yet looks like a Compelling Buy..I blogged on this just yesterday…But you may reserve the decision to increase or initiate exposure till Company clarifies on the Impact of this Ban…my intelligent guess is that it would be a favourable clarification 

Sesa Goa Up at record New High at Rs 494…More upmove potential…..but Sensex Down 256 points to 17714

Thursday, April 8th, 2010

After kissing 18000 yesterday after a two year gap,the Sensex dropped 256 points today to close at 17714…it was in the red right from day’s start at 9 am till close at 3.30 pm

But Sesa Goa surged to a record high of Rs 494+ and closed a few notches lower at Rs 490….I’ve been recommending this scrip vigorously from mid 2008…and I believe it’s positioning itself beautifully to move to record highs again in the months ahead…I will not be surprised if it crosses the four digit quote of Rs 1000 in the next 12 months

What’s so exciting !?….Iron Ore Prices are at sustainable Highs of over US $ 100/t

Sesa Goa should double it profits and make more than a US $ 1.25 Billion  Dollar Profit in FY 11

Japan has committed to buy Iron Ore on Long Term Contracts ( now quoted for quarterly periods) from the World majors Vale,Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton at a price 90% higher than last year !…that’s close to US $ 110/t…..Chief Buyer,China is negotiating and is expected to pay 80% higher prices than last year……Sesa Goa sells it’s Ore in the Spot Market and is currently realising over US $ 130/t

Sesa Goa has recorded a 59% jump in Q4 Volumes,with saleable ore of  7.8 million tonnes in the three months ending March 31,2010….Profits were just over Rs 1100 crs for the nine months at December 2009…Q4 will be fabulous on better realisations and I expect FY 10 to close with a PAT of over Rs 2500 crs…on a diluted equity of Rs 90 crs,the EPS should be in the Rs 25 to Rs 30 range…The Share Price of Rs 490 gives a P/E Multiple range of 16 to 20 on FY 10 expected EPS range….but the great expectations are for FY 11…read below  

Current Equity is a shade over Rs 83 crs (FV Rs 1) and fully diluted Equity would be Rs 90 crs after rest conversion of the FCCBs…5000 FCCBs of FV US $ 100000 each,were issued in late 2009 aggregating US $ 500 Million…Till date 1637 FCCBs have been converted at the pre-ordained price of Rs 346+

Next two Years look good for the Iron Ore Industry as China’s demand will not ebb as it’s Steel Production targets are high…..In FY 2011,Sesa Goa would have saleable ore between 20 to 25 million tonnes…assuming they realise an average of US 110/t in the year,the net margins after extraction and royalty costs would yet be strong at US $ 70+/t…that’s Rs 3000/t…that’s Rs 6000 crs for 20 million tonnes and Rs 7500 crs for 25 million tonnes…that’s a potentially high EPS range of Rs 67 to Rs 83 in FY 11…at a 10 to 15 multiple applied to the extreme ends of the EPS respectively,you’ll arrive at a target Share Price Range of Rs 670 to Rs 1245 !…we’re at Rs 490 levels now….so we’re looking at a minimum 40% upmove from here and a potential doubler + in the next twelve months

Keep an eye on the Iron Ore Realisations in the coming months….Atleast 20 million tonnes is a certainty……and if Sesa Goa average realisations at more than US $ 110/t,like it’s doing presently,then I may just have to revise the target price northward again ! 

One way of looking at Sesa Goa is also this…there is little downside risk even at this record high of Rs 490…Even if the FY 11 PAT is lower at Rs 4500 crs giving an EPS of Rs 50,the multiple remains below 10

Sesa Goa continues to look solid as there is strong certainty and visibility of potentially high FY 11 earnings as Iron Ore Prices are expected to remain in three digits per tonne in dollar terms….Now if only if the Rupee reversed and depreciated and goes back to Rs 49/Dollar..It’s gained and is currently appreciated to below Rs 45….it will be the icing on the cake for Sesa Goa…a 5% depreciation would mean Rs 500 crs more !

Sesa Goa’s current Market Cap has crossed Rs 40000 crs…that’s US $ 9 Billion !…over 8 times last Years Sales of Rs 4779 crs…and over 7 times FY 10 expected Sales of over Rs 5500 crs….and half the market value of Proven Ore Reserves of 180 million tonnes !  

Cheers !      

SESA INDUSTRIES….Unlisted but worth Rs 1600+…..much more than Rs 675 being offered

Friday, January 15th, 2010

On November 1,2009 I had warned shareholders of the unlisted Sesa Industries to think twice before selling their shares on offers of Rs 600 per share

Unlisted Sesa Industries has buyers off market at Rs 600…but should you sell ? NO!…It’s worth much more 

Now offers are at Rs 675…..Please think again Twice before selling in private deals…It’s worth much more….You will be getting 4 Sesa Goa shares for every 1 Sesa Industries Share….Sesa Goa is currently at Rs 410+…Thus your Sesa Industries Share is worth Rs 1640 ! already…it will climb higher if Sesa Goa climbs higher….A recent BOA-ML report sets a target price of Rs 472 for Sesa Goa

Legal Issues…matter is in the Supreme Court….has delayed this merger for some years now…This year or next should see this issue resolved  

Sesa Goa at Rs 315……Careful you don’t step on some ‘Mines’!

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Ashish has raised a very serious query whether Monies are safe Investing in Sesa Goa for a year,given the controversies surrounding the Vedanta Group….Sesa Goa has reacted from a recent high of Rs 362 to Rs 315 and there is a real fear it may soon move below Rs 300 in the short term….significantly so

So what are these adverse developments? Remember these were out,except for the last one below, in end Feb 2009 and the markets and Sesa Goa had sunk to lows…Sesa Goa was available at just Rs 60…Inside eight months it touched Rs 362 and is now Rs 315

  • Vedanta Aluminium Ltd has been accused of falsely encashing a Bank Guarantee of Rs 64 crs provided in 2007 by Maytas Infra when signing the MOU to develop a Rs 232 crs township in Jharsuguda in Orissa…a Police Investigation is on
  • In February 2009,a division bench of the Mumbai High Court in Goa set aside a December 2008 single bench sanction for amalgamation of subsidiary, Sesa Industries with Sesa Goa on the grounds that the Scheme was in violation of the mandatory provisions of  Sec 394 of the Companies Act.The appellant,a shareholder of Sesa Industries, told the court that Sesa Industries had suppressed information to shareholders that an investigation was going on against the company and it even had an adverse report against it ,when applying to the court for sanction of the Amalgamation Scheme in 2005/6.Sesa Industries has filed a Special Leave Petition in the Supreme Court against this order
  • S K Tamotia,ex chief of Nalco was sentenced to three years in prison for corruption and holding disproportionate assets.It was a CBI case that related to his tenure at Nalco.After exiting Nalco he held top positions at Hindalco and the Vedanta Group
  • THIS IS THE MOST SERIOUS ONE AND REMAINS UNCONFIRMED…A recent message posted on a popular stock site claimed Zee Business featured recently the possibility of malpractices in Sesa Goa right from 2003…underinvoicing to Mitsui…overstating revenues and profits…it also claimed ROC has send a report to the Government of it’s findings….I went to the Zee Business section of the Zee News website ,but was unable to locate any such coverage….I again reviewed the Annual Reports of 2008/9 of both Sesa Goa and Sesa Industries…. and confirmed that the auditors Deloitte Haskins & Sells have given clean reports….Sesa Goa even has a whistle blower policy in place…ROC comes under the Ministry of Company Affairs and can be directed to conduct an investigation by the Serious Frauds offices or the MRTP sections of the MCA….There is no mention of any such investigation in the Annual Reports….I’m sure the auditors would have qualified their reports if there was any such adverse report and it impacted their opinion of ‘true and fair’ for the financial statements…As per Clause 49 of the Listing Agreements,the CEO/CFO Certifications too are in place in the Annual Reports…..also recently the group has announced it is raising Rs 6000 crs beginning with a US $ 500 Million FCCB Issue…this is being managed by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley…would you not assume they would have done their due diligence before accepting the assignment ? 

However Sesa Goa realises the business and operational challenges it faces.It has been quite candid in it’s Annual Report on these…of

  • trying to secure more mining assets to secure it’s growth…it had 240 million tonnes reserves at March 31,2009
  • positioning itself in the spot market and leveraging with specific Chinese Importers as the three bigges,Vale,Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton,who control 70% of the sea borne iron ore export,concentrate more on securing long term contracts
  • continuing to operate in a market of depressed demand and prices in the short to medium term

Interesting to note it had Rs 1000 crs in intercorporate deposit with group company Vedanta Aluminium…the same company accused by Maytas Infra of falsely encashing a ICICI Bank Guarantee of Rs 64 crs…and interesting to also note that subsidiary,Sesa Industries earned Rs 58 crs in 2008/9 and had a networth of Rs 284 crs(net of deferred tax) and Investments jumped from Rs 92 crs to Rs 147 crs,of which Rs 104 crs have been moved to just the Growth Option of the ICICI Prudential Flexible Income Plan Premium  

Having said all this,I must advise you for the short term to fall back on the old but trusted adage of ‘When in Doubt,Stay Out’…so avoid Trading or Investing in Sesa Goa…Ashish,a year would qualify as  short term.….await further developments and I hope the Company comes forward soon and loud in clarifying on these adverse reports

Those who are considering an Investment in Sesa Goa for the Long Term…hold the ‘Buy’ decision until doubts are cleared and the share price declines to less riskier levels and the road ahead is cleared of any possible ‘Mines’ for this Mining Major

Those who already hold Sesa Goa for some time now are already in a ‘ good gains situation’….take some (long term holdings) or all (Short Term positions) of the profit…those who are conservative to moderate in their risk profiles and hold a Long Term Position,it would be prudent to book all gains….treat it as a rebalancing exercise 

The toughest call is those who hold Sesa Goa and have purchased it at recent highs…if you’re holding it for the short term,prudent to exit,even at a loss….if you’re holding for the long term,check your risk profile and if you have the conviction in the Sesa Goa story and are not going to sweat on price declines in the short term,you should continue holding and if the share price declines significantly, maybe consider averaging if your conviction remains unshaken  

To summarize,hold back your ‘Buy’ decision…..all Short term Positions should exit Sesa Goa….Exit Long Term Positions partially  or completely if you’re going to sweat even at the possibility of significant price declines in Sesa Goa in the short term

As I had blogged a few days ago…I view Sesa Goa for the Long Term and therefore significant declines could be viewed as buying or averaging opportunities…I don’t see Sesa Goa stepping on any ‘ Chinese Mines’ on the road it is treading…it’s positioning itself for it 

Sesa Goa…Low PAT in Q2 FY10 scares Brokers….why?

Friday, October 23rd, 2009

Sesa Goa just declared their Q 2 FY 10 results….Consolidated Profit was down 51% from Rs 337 crs in Q2 FY 09 to Rs 166 crs….Revenues have tumbled too by 38% despite Dempo consolidation

Iron Ore realisation in Q 2 FY 10 was a shade below US $ 51/MT…same quarter last year it was US $ 108

Brokers have been quick to change advisories from Buy to Sell or just Hold…..Methinks this paranoia is the inability to see beyond the nose and down a few years…I’m seeing two to three years ahead….

Company has passed at the EGM on October 20,2009 a plan to raise Rs 6000 crs.US $ 500 Million has already been announced through FCCBs with a coupon rate of 5% payable half yearly in arrears and conversion option into equity at Rs 346.88 being 28% premium over base price taken of Rs 271…This will raise close to Rs 2400 crs

The dilution in Equity will merely be under Rs 7 crs for this FCCB…so the current Equity (FV Rs 1)of Rs 82 crs will move to Rs 89 crs and share premium will incrementally add Rs 2300 crs + to reserves…so assuming the Company maintains consolidated profits at Rs 2000 crs (Iron Ore is currently at US $85/90 /MT) we shall have a networth close to Rs 9000 crs at March 31,2010 up from Rs 4716 crs as at March 31,2009….so the Book Value will be @ Rs 100

Even if Sesa Goa raises the remaining Rs 3600 crs + through Equity at the same conversion,the Equity Dilution would be just another Rs 10 crs…giving a possible final Equity of Rs 99 crs…So suppose even in FY 11 the PAT is maintained at Rs 2000 crs,the Networth at March 31,2011 would be over Rs 14500 crs,giving a Book Value of close to Rs 150

Equity Route is recommended because the additional dilution of Rs 10 crs and a maintainable PAT of 2000 crs would mean a downward impact of just Rs 2 to Rs 2.5 on the EPS and on a 15 multiple that would mean a downward impact of not more than Rs 30 to Rs 40 in the Share Price

Now Believe me,with the new funding of Rs 6000 crs,the scale of operations will simply double…so we shall see close to 50 million tonnes annually by 2012

Extent of Profitability will depend solely on continuing Demand from China…this will continue to dictate Iron Ore Prices…Sesa Goa has simply no control here…..Now with China on the verge of returning to double digit GDP growth I don’t forsee any demand issues for the next to to three years…and therefore Sesa Goa would be able to pass on the incremental royalty it now has to pay…for example on Iron Ore with a Fe content of 65 % +from a fixed low amount of Rs 27/T earlier to 10% advalorem basis on adjusted Sales Price FOB…..that’s more than a ten fold jump…..I have blogged on this change earlier on August 12,2009……so I guess the PAT too will move past Rs 3000 crs and towards Rs 4000 crs with Iron Ore Prices hovering around US $ 100/MT…so that’s an EPS in the range of Rs 30 to Rs 40 by FY 12…on a 15 Multiple that’s a Price Range of Rs 450 to Rs 600 inside two years….Now if Iron Ore demand surges,so will the price…. and we can yet again see highs of US $ 140/MT….Sesa Goa will then be able to cross Rs 6000 crs PAT…That’s a EPS of Rs 60…and a price of Rs 750 on a 15 multiple

So keep an eye on China here and monitor Iron Ore prices to gauge Sesa Goa Profits…it’s a direct corelation…However increasing Volumes should set off against any decline in Iron Ore Prices to maintain the PAT …..Don’t judge the Year’s performance by the Monsoon Quarter 2,which traditionally is the lowest perfoming quarter as few or none export shipments take place in the rains…One Institutional Broking House has downgraded Sesa Goa from Buy to Hold  calling it a Fruitless Optimism !…Others are outright recommending a Sale

With a Two to Three Year Outlook,I’m yet recommending it as a Buy at current levels of Rs 320-Rs 325 ,more so on Declines

Cheers !   

Sesa Goa !….. Blog Readers who acted would have benefited immensely…468 % returns in seven months !…I bet you’ll waiting for which is my next ‘Sesa Goa’!

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

I’ve been backing Sesa Goa …but when it fell dramatically to Rs 60-70 in March this year,I cried hoarse to bring in more funds to add to holdings

Then on June 17,2009,I reiterated to Stay with Sesa Goa http://www.gauravblog.com/?p=601 and add on declines …it was Rs 200 then

Then on August 12,2009 I reassured bloggers that the increased Mining Royalty will be absorbed well by Sesa Goa and they would make monies on increased volumes http://www.gauravblog.com/?p=658 and the 10% correction to Rs 228 that day should not worry investors

Sesa Goa surged 18% yesterday to close strong at Rs 341…This is a  fantastic return of 468 % from the March low of Rs 60….all in just seven months !

And for all those who bought it mid last year cum 1:1 bonus and 10:1 split have made a 100 % profit on the adjusted price of Rs 160-Rs 170

I bet all of you are itching to know when I’ll hint my next ‘Sesa Goa’ type of recommendation!…In Feb,I hinted Firstsource Solutions at Rs 9…..It’s up over 275 % at Rs 34 now ! Clients ofcourse have the privileged and prior access to my stock ideas and me

Fundamentals and Valuations rarely let you down over the longer term

Why don’t you’ll seriously consider joining my advisory…make no promises….let the performance speak for itself….but don’t expect three digit returns in three days !……the link is at the top of pages on the right

Cheers !

Sesa Goa sinks 10% to Rs 228 as Government finally announces Higher Mining Royalty…Worried ?

Wednesday, August 12th, 2009

This Blog Piece is to address the responses of Madhu and P P Jain…welcome Jain…this is the first time you’ve taken the trouble to respond

The New Mining Royalty Policy……It was awaiting Ministerial Approval………10% Mining Royalty on Market Prices before Freight…a move away from a Flat Rate based on Weight

Today,the Ministry finally went by the recommendation of a specially constituted panel of 2007 to impose a higher Royalty rate of 10% and change the basis from weight to Market Price

This announcement had been expected for a long time now…but when it came it sunk Sesa Goa’s Share Price by 10% this morning…It closed at Rs 228

This Rationalisation of the Royalty Policy was part of the 100 Days committment of the UPA Government…it had proposed to adopt wherever possible the advalorem basis

The Last Policy was notified on October 14,2004 and for three years,no change would have been possible…The Study Group formed in 2007 gave their recommendations to the Ministry of Mines in October 2007…However this recommendation was delayed as Global Recession set in and Iron Ore Prices weakened considerably

Under the Old Flat rate Royalty Policy,the highest Rate was Rs 27/T for Iron Ore Lumps that had 65% Fe Content or more

Now under this new market FOB Price,less Transportation and allied costs to Ports,the Royalty will be 10% of the Adjusted Sales FOB Price

From April 2009,the CIF price to China has doubled to US $ 110/T….Adjusted FOB would range between US $ 60 to US $ 80…that’s Rs 2800 to Rs 3800 per Tonne…10% Royalty would range between Rs 280 to Rs 380 per tonne…that’s over a ten fold jump from the earlier Policy basis  

Should we be worried ?…Madhu and Jain queried for my comments….well it will surely affect export competitiveness

Sesa Goa sold over 15 million last last year and has ambitious plans for volumes ahead…50 million tonnes in three years….so we can estimate that incremental  Royalty payments for Sesa Goa will start to be in excess of Rs 400 crs….Though Iron Ore Prices are again rising,the exports market remains competitive and the risk is that Sesa Goa may not be able to pass on the entire incremental to China,it’s major market…Sesa Goa earned  a shade under Rs 2000 crs PAT in FY 09…thus the immdiate impact looks to be 20% of profits

Having said this,Sesa Goa could absorb this on rising volumes and rising Iron Ore Prices

China is the Focus here….It accounted for over half the World Imports of 882 Million Tonnes of Iron Ore last year to part serve it’s Steel Industry of over 600 Million Tonnes Capacity…India exported 101 tonnes last year,most of it to China

The Situation is Volatile….On One Hand you have the Major Buyer,China that’s attempting to take back it’s  GDP Growth rates into the 11% to 13% Zone and is creating huge inventories of Commodities….On the Other hand you have the major Iron Ore Exporters,Vale, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto trying to negotiate prices on the basis of Spot Market rates and the negotiating skills of the parties involved…The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) which has 72 members who aggregate 75% of the Steel Capacity in China is trying to bring down the number of Approved Importers from 112,ban Spot Trade in Iron Ore and negotiate a higher 45% discount to benchmark prices for Long Term Contracts…Japan and Korea have negotiated 33%

Given the current situation of rising Prices and with China, facing little option but to compromise with the Suppliers,I don’t see Sesa Goa being significantly impacted…It will be able to factor this additional Royalty Payment into the Selling Price and with ambitious volume growth planned,the future continues to look secure

However,keep an eye on China….Froth seems to be visible and Paul Krugman,the Noble Laureate for Economics and a Professor at Princeton University,fears a bubble developing that a few years down the line may burst.

So if China Stops buying,like it did for a short period last year, where else could Sesa Goa sell significant quantities ! ?…Sesa Goa has flourished because of China’s insatiable appetite for Iron Ore in the past…It’s continuing success depends on this appetite continuing

Sesa Goa has surged brilliantly in months from Rs 60 to Rs 251…Today’s 10% correction because of the new Royalty Policy being notified may just be an aberation..It may take the Share Price below Rs 200….but with a PAT of Rs 2500 crs ( even after considering the incremental Royalty Payments)  expected in FY 10,that gives an EPS of Rs 30, and that I don’t see any multiple less than 6 be applied, see a bottom of Rs 180

It’s a three year outlook Buy for new purchases…Those who hold it can continue doing so for expectations of superior returns in this period too…they should not be concerned with short term corrections,unless they are traders or sense a permanent diminution.

Hope Madhu and Jain,these comments adequately address your queries on this 10% fall today in Sesa Goa’s Share Price ?

Cheers       

 

 

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