Bodal Chemicals keeps sinking 5% ~ Closes week at Rs 28

Bodal Chemicals has sunk to another lower circuit today to close the week at Rs 28

This was my post earlier this week where I was shocked at the advice on it by a leading Broking House

Bodal Chemicals @ Rs 35 ~ Shocked At The Advice Of A Broking House Promoted By A Private Bank

A few have sought my views on it wondering ,like this Broking House who recommended long term risk investors clients to average in the Rs 26 to Rs 28 range , whether it’s a good buy now !

Best way to answer this is by reproducing below for wider readership this exchange of email content between a GM who works in the Chairman’s Office of a well known Corporate Group and who was one of the fortunate few to exit at a profit when he observed that Promoters were selling

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Sensex crosses 25000 ! but it is not a broad based rally ! Sell Sensex Scrips for now

Sensex crosses 25000 ! but it is not a broad based rally ! Sell Sensex Scrips for now…can re-enter later

SENSEX at 10.10 am 25217 up 1312 or 5.49%
Pr Close : 23905.60 Open : 24271.54 High : 25375.63 Low : 24271.54
S&P BSE SENSEX Heatmap

 ICICIBANK

1558.20

11.85 %

 SBI

2499.95

9.69 %

 AXISBANK

1821.00

9.46 %

 HEROMOTOCO

2645.80

8.38 %

 LNT

1486.35

7.91 %

 HDFCBANK

846.15

7.37 %

 SSLT

207.60

7.31 %

 BHEL

233.55

7.16 %

 MARUTI

2267.15

7.08 %

 RIL

1126.00

6.91 %

 MNM

1172.60

6.25 %

 BAJAJAUT

2074.50

6.21 %

 GAIL

428.10

5.98 %

 ONGC

400.50

5.94 %

 BHARTIARTL

340.65

5.94 %

 NTPC

135.85

5.11 %

 HDFC

948.10

5.06 %

 TATAMOTORS

461.50

5.05 %

 COALINDIA

357.45

4.92 %

 TATAPOWER

91.50

4.75 %

 TATASTL

481.90

4.60 %

 HINDALCO

143.30

3.54 %

 ITC

377.50

2.61 %

 HUL

603.00

2.49 %

 TCS

2225.00

1.44 %

 INFY

3314.00

1.33 %

 WIPRO

523.15

1.32 %

 SUNPHARMA

629.70

1.27 %

 CIPLA

401.95

0.98 %

 DRREDDY

2460.10

-0.89 %

Will the Sensex close over 24000 for the first time on Election Outcome Day Today !?

Will the Sensex close over 24000 for the first time on Election Outcome Day Today !?….Singapore Nifty is up 1% early Indian Morning !

Our Capitalism Index our Sensex has recorded an intraday High of 24068.95 earlier this week on Tuesday, May 13,2014  but has never closed above 24000….yesterday it closed at 23905.60 ready to leap past 24000 again and even as all expect close with great vigour over 24000 today as all EXIT Polls indicate a BJP Victory and NDA forming the next government and Narendra Modi becoming India’s 14th Prime Minister

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Sensex 24000 & Nifty 7100 ~ A Final Short Term Flourish coming up ?

Sensex & Nifty at Record Existence Highs of 24000 and 7100 respectively ~ A Final Short Term Flourish coming up ?  

Long Term I remain excited but feel the Sensex & Nifty has been ‘Managed’ Up past few months,especially the 7% in the last three trading days !…Imagine Yes Bank gives you 7% in 365 days in your Savings Account…Sensex gave it in just 3 days ! …and 12% inside 3 months

The rally is not broad based…the Macros do not support it…Inflation remains High as do Interest rates….Manufacturing remains stunted….GDP  Growth Rate is lower than 5%….Monsoon Forecasts are less than Normal this Year….Ukraine Crisis is escalating…..PSU Banks have recorded the highest level of NPAs yet….though of course it is expected that Narendra Modi will decisively address many macro economic issues plaguing India when he  will be India’s 14th Prime Minister and BJP will lead a NDA Coalition Government …this should be confirmed when the Election Outcome is known day after

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US Stocks Beginning to Bubble ? Should India Worry ?

US Stocks Beginning to Bubble ?

Would seem so if one goes by the Market Cap/GDP Indicator of 1.4… US Market Cap is @ US 23 Trillion  with the US GDP in 2013 @ US $ 16.9 Trillion …these are data points direct from the source

US Stocks Crash is expected in 2014 by quite a few  …..“We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is notorious for his hugely profitable billion-dollar bet on the 2008 crisis. “In fact, we must absolutely expect it.”

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Grantham of GMO say the next Bust will be Nothing Like You Have Seen Before !

Jeremy Grantham of GMO say the next Bust will be Nothing Like You Have Seen Before ! ….but before that the Markets will make a New High of another 25% from current Levels

This he asserted in his latest Interview a few days ago in Fortune  ..A Few Weeks back in the New York Times he called the US Fed Chief Janet Yellen “Ignorant”

Some interesting quotes from his Fortune Interview :

  1. “…go back to the 1980s and the U.S. had an aggregate debt level of about 1.3 times GDP. Then we had a massive spike over the next two decades to about 3.3 times debt. And GDP over that time period has been slowed. There isn’t any room in that data for the belief that more debt creates growth.”
  2. “In the economic crisis after World War I, there was no attempt at intervention or bailouts, and the economy came roaring back. In the S&L crisis, we liquidated the bad banks and their bad real estate bets. Property prices fell, capitalist juices started to flow, and the economy came roaring back. This time around, we did not liquidate the guys who made the bad bets.”
  3.  “Higher interest rates would have increased the wealth of savers. Instead, they became collateral damage of Bernanke’s policies. The theory is that lower interest rates are supposed to spur capital spending, right? Then why is capital spending so weak at this stage of the cycle. There is no evidence at all that quantitative easing has boosted capital spending. We have always come roaring back from recessions, even after the mismanaged Great Depression.”
  4. “…...the Fed can manipulate stock prices. That’s perhaps the only thing they can do.…… the Fed encourages steady increasing leverage and more asset bubbles….. The Fed gives them(investing professionals) very cheap leverage on the upside, and then bails them out on the downside…..The only ones who have really benefited from QE are hedge fund managers.”
  5. “We do think the market is going to go higher because the Fed hasn’t ended its game, and it won’t stop playing until we are in old-fashioned bubble territory and it bursts, which usually happens at two standard deviations from the market’s mean. That would take us to 2,350 on the S&P 500, or roughly 25% from where we are now.”
  6. “….. to invest our clients’ money on the basis of speculation being driven by the Fed’s misguided policies doesn’t seem like the best thing to do with our clients’ money…….We invest our clients’ money based on our seven-year prediction. And over the next seven years, we think the market will have negative returns. The next bust will be unlike any other, because the Fed and other centrals banks around the world have taken on all this leverage that was out there and put it on their balance sheets. We have never had this before. Assets are overpriced generally. They will be cheap again. That’s how we will pay for this. It’s going to be very painful for investors.

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