3 Seats Left ! ~ Sat Feb 17 2018 Mumbai Funda Eq Workshop

3 Seats Left ! ~ Sat Feb 17 2018 Mumbai Funda Eq Workshop

Reserve yours now =>  http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Fundamental MasterClass in Mumbai Stock Selection ~ Value Vs Price – 2018 ~ Markets Major & Mature ~ Sensex 36000 ~ Taking Stock

Saturday, February 17, 2018

At the previous Funda workshops in June & August 2017  we thread-bared Bombay Dyeing at Rs 70 to assess Value Vs Price in the price range of Rs 70 to Rs 85 & participants got excited to lap it up….in months it raced away to Rs 300 & now stands at Rs 250…of course Markets have been kind too…we had covered over 50 companies across sectors like Yuken,Rama Steel & Grauer on Valuation through Assets & Earnings & Situational Studies like M & A, Delisting & Turnarounds & the outcomes have been quite enjoyed by most participants as the feedback shows……. for what’s Academics & Theory without Action & Application

As Usual there’s already a good mix of participants from retail to HNWI & from FPIs, broking houses,PSUs  & MNC Banks….coming even from overseas & outstation for this Mumbai Workshop

Do try & make it….will be fun interacting fun-da-mentally with all of you on Re-positioning & Reinvestment Risks & on Corporate Governance & Controversies as we play the Corporate Tambola and exercise other Mind Gums on the Magic of Compounding & the holding of Convictions of Fundamental Selections through even steep market corrections especially if fully invested !

When I had announced this workshop just a fortnight ago the Sensex was at a record 36000+ and featured in the Workshop Title…In days since then following a global correction and arguably an uninspiring Union Budget that re-introduced Long Terms Capital Gains Tax the Sensex fell sharply below 34000 with many non large caps taking a hit of even 30 % with Vakrangee decimating over 50% from over Rs 500 to under Rs 200 on Corporate Governance issues

Even Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s Equity Portfolio has taken a US $ 11.2 billion hit ~ of course he’s not bothered ~ should you be when closer home we continue to be suckers in Company Price Run Ups where Quality is clearly suspect & where our PSU Banks continue to reel under the weight of NPAs with SBI announcing a huge Q 3 Loss,the first in many quarters, because of this ? ~ Capitalisation & Consolidation process is on  ~ are PSU Banks potential wealth creators going forward?

What Now ! ?

See You Sat

Cheers !

2020 & 20-20 ~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat Aug 5 2017

Historic Saturday,July 1,2017~Indian Govt launches the much awaited huge Indirect Tax Reform ~ GST ~ Goods & Services Tax ~ 🙂  Here’s my GST Launch & Announcement too ~ Gaurav’s Saturday Training

2020 & 20-20 ~ The Long & Short of it ~Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, August 5, 2017  ~ Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

On the back of a  fantastic Mumbai Workshop on Saturday,June 17,2017 here’s another opportunity to invest the first Saturday in August 2017 with me ! ~ especially for those who could not make it or could not be accommodated as Registrations had closed within a week of opening ~ expecting a few repeat participants too ~ what better endorsement could there be ! ~🙂 While you can call it an Encore ,this time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept another exciting Theme to spot & assess both Long & Short Term Opportunities in Equity :

2020 & 20-20 ~ The Long & Short of it

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Fundamental Opportunities in Specific Sectors & Companies  to assess Value vs Price both in the Short Term & the Longer Term ~ thus ideal for both Traders & Investors

Here’s some fresh feedback from participants of the very recent June 17,2017 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price~ Wealth Destroyers : Potential Multibaggers where we conducted Macro & Micro Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises & more & even played an animated Corporate Tambola !  ~ Some participants came in from Dubai,Malaysia,Delhi,Cochin & Ichikaranji too ~ & what a lovely & lively Mix from retail investors to HNWI market veterans & professionals from FPIs,Fund & Broking Houses & Institutions ~ spread in age from early 20’s to the 60’s

“Again Sir you Rocked & it was my fortune to attend your wonderful workshop that too three times in a row ~ it is your simplicity, down to earth nature & great FUNDA knowledge ( how to value a stock so precisely ) made me motivated to attend your w’shop again and again & i hope in future also, I will be able to attend your w’shop ~ Every w’shop is so unique”

 

“indeed a great learning & educational experience….totally luv your analysis of stocks….looking forward to the next one”

“Always fortunate to attend…get motivated by your knowledge & the attitude  you carry with…thanks for sharing your knowledge & helping people like me to grow better”

read more

Voda Idea ! ~ Share Price Bonanza for Idea Cellular on Merger Talks with Vodafone

Voda Idea ! ~ Share Price Bonanza for Idea Cellular on Merger Talks with Vodafone

Given the cut throat competition in the Telecom Provider space,Consolidation has been inevitable for quite some time & with just a handful of players it was not rocket science to predict who would make the first move

Insider Play ?

Obviously Insiders knew of the preliminary talks and their friends in the Media were fed the news to facilitate the likes of Economic Times splashing a Vodafone & Idea Merger scenario in their print edition yesterday

Then it was the Stock Channels turn to take credit as Vodafone confirmed such talks yesterday

Ironically neither BSE nor NSE Authorities received any pro-active notification from the listed Birla Group Company Idea Cellular.It was on the Exchanges re-actively seeking a clarification did the company send one to confirm they were in preliminary talks with Vodafone

But look at the recent chronlogical events that prefaced yesterdays drama & draw your own conclusions

August 23,2016 ~ Idea Cellular calls all such merger speculation baseless and absolutely false & sees it’s share price correct back into the 90’s after the surge past Rs 100   …It drifted even lower below Rs 70 in the last quarter and then regained to remain in the Rs 70 to Rs 78 range till Friday ,January 27,2017

January 11,2017 ~ Idea Cellular notified the exchanges that Q3 FY 17 December 2016 results will be declared on January 23,2017.

January 13,2017 ~ Idea Cellular notifies The Shareholding as on December 31,2016.Pilani Investments,a Birla Holding Company picked up 8168500 shares or a 0.23% equity stake  in Idea Cellular in the quarter ended December 2016 taking the Promoter Birla Group stake to  42.45%

January 19,2017 ~ Idea Cellular notified again that the Q 3 FY 17 Results declaration has been postponed and a new date will be conveyed

Yesterday,January 30,2017 ~ Economic Times carried the Merger Scenario forcing the Exchanges to seek Clarification from Idea Cellular.Vodafone had already confirmed to the Media in the morning itself that talks indeed were being held

Idea Cellular Share Price simply rocketed over 25% to cross Rs 100 from the Friday Close of @ Rs 78  before closing at Rs 98 yesterday, .It also is in F & O Segment with a lot size of 7000

Today,Tuesday,January 31,2017  it has surged another nearly 20% to record a high of Rs 118.90 & as I blog this @ 1.30 pm it’s at @ Rs 116 with a Market Cap now @ Rs 42000 crs from under Rs 30000 crs just two days ago on Friday,January 27,2017

read more

Stanley Druckenmiller warns of an Endgame in Equities ~ He’s into Gold

Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller warns of an Endgame in Equities ~ He’s into Gold 

He makes out quite a compelling case for an endgame in Equities with this address earlier this month at the celebrated Annual Sohn Investor Conference of Hedge Fund Managers

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-07/stan-druckenmiller-endgame-his-full-apocalyptic-presentation

He’s a self made Billionaire famous largely for the US $ One Billion Gains made in quick time in 1992 when he was with George Soros & they shorted the Pound

His own Fund Duquesne gave reportedly average returns of 30% from 1986 to 2010 when he converted it into a Family Office as he feared he could not continue giving good returns

He’s greatly nervous about the financial leveraging that continues in US & China &  has been critical of the US Fed & it’s Governors for over a decade now

The Fed has borrowed more from future consumption than ever before…..While policymakers have no end game, markets do.”

He supports his nervousness with compelling statistics

  • The  US Total  Credit Market Debt  as a % of GDP is 350%
  • The Net Debt vs Operating Cash Flow shows a current 5 year divergence like never before post World War II
  • The above Indicating that Corporate Debt was not used productively for R & D & Capex but rather for BuyBacks & M & A

He is nervous about China & Japan both

Worth Noting his Views

L & T Finance Holdings recovers to Rs 70 & up 44% from Low inside Two Months

L & T Finance Holdings recovers to Rs 70 & up 44% from Low of Rs 48.30 on February 12,2016….that’s inside Two Months…it also trades in the F & O Segment

It opened 2016 at Rs 65  when Sensex levels were at 27500 +  and closed January 2016 at Rs 58 only to drop sharply below Rs 50 to Rs 48.30 on February 12,2016 and in fact closed February 2016 at Rs 52

Today it’s up to Rs 70 on a day when RBI has dropped Repo Rate to 6.50% ~ cut of 0.25% as expected by the markets & therefore priced in earlier.The Sensex post Noon  & announcement of repo rate cut has corrected over 330 points and is below 25100 currently  but L & T Finance is up 7.4% to Rs 70 !

Have always had a soft corner for L & T Group even when they’re in soft times  & in midst of controversies like just  two years ago in mid  March 2014 when it was introduced for trading in the F & O Segment in mid month just when parent Larsen & Toubro offered a stake through OFS on the Stock Exchange Window at a Floor Price of just Rs 70 on SEBI allowing this route even though they had sold shares in the prior six months.The F & O trading pattern a day or two before showed insiders ( who must have known lower floor price before hand) short selling at Rs 85 levels  & SEBI investigation revealed parties who had never before ever done F & O having indulged in it to make several Crores of Profit

Had been disappointed with L & T Finance Holding’s inability to leverage strongly on the parent L & T Brand in their Finance Foray….This Listed Company should have been over Rs 200 by now inside 5 years  after it’s IPO at Rs 52 in mid 2011….Had recommended it strongly in 2011 & saw it’s price move smartly to Rs 95+ Highs in 2012 & 2013 only to slide back….then had recommended exit as was not enamored with top management who always wore a bored & disinterested look at analyst meets

Then came in Bain Capital in September 2015 to stir the shareholding in the company by picking a preferential post issue  stake of 5.27% through an aggregate of 95.66 m shares & warrants ( to be exercised from six to eighteen months from allotment)  @ Rs 74.This would infuse over Rs 700 crs into the Company.It  also created another Rs 600 cr exposure through a 4.95 % post issue stake by buying 85.2 m shares from parent Larsen & Toubro in market deals at @ Rs 70…the Sensex at the time was @ 26200 levels with the Share Price of L & T Finance Holdings in the Rs 67 to Rs 70 range

read more

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  1. Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  2. Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  3. Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  4. Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  5. India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  6. Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  7.  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  8. Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  9.  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  10.    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  11. All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  12. Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  13. Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  14. Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end

read more