Union Budget 2014 ~ Will Sensex continue to Humour as Jaitley does not!

Have a look at our first impression posted  after our FM ‘s Union Budget Address and during market hours

Union Budget 2014 ~ Will Sensex continue to Humour as Jaitley does not!

Think he missed a great opportunity to provide us with the ‘Naya Soch’ of the new NDA Government

His Speech stated quite a few challenges and objectives like tackling Black Monies,raising Tax to GDP ratio,lowering Inflation and Fiscal Deficit % but stopped short of spelling out the specifics of solving these

Having just 45 days after NDA was elected he has opted for the easier option of simply following the UPA budget process and numbers too that the UPA FM Mr Chidambaram laid out in his Interim Budget in February 2014….whether it be Disinvestment or Tax Receipts or Fiscal Deficit Control Targets…made right noises but was tokenism in a few areas like social expenditure…thankfully nothing really adverse or anti poor though direct tax incentives are not really cause for any celebration

Sensex had quite a roller coaster ride today as to be expected….opening stable & pre budget speech at 25514 in the morning then sliding before noon over 300 points to 25117 from yesterday closing of 25445 during the budget speech before strongly racing away by over 700 points to 25920 …over 400 points previous day closing post budget speech only to reverse all the gains and close at 25373,down 72 points  from previous day closing

Will the Sensex continue to Humor us in the near term despite not an iota of Humor in the FM’s Speech !? …sense is that any correction will be a hiccup on the onward march towards 30000 on the back of increased FII Net Infows & Big Corporate Infra spending  

I see some clear big winners in the Infrastructure Space across the Board from Shipping to Power to SEZs to Real Estate to Highway Road Construction Companies and Pipeline Companies

 

 

Typical ~ Equity Investors are piling on at these Highs ~ they need to be cautious

Sensex has crossed a record 26000 & Nifty is now ahead of 7700

Typical ~ Equity Investors are piling on at these Highs  ~ they need to be cautious ~ especially those who are returning or initiating fresh exposure now not having done so in 2013 or earlier in 2014 ~ advisable to await the post budget scenario as there is a high probability that once euphoria abates the Sensex and Bellwether Scrips may correct 10% or more…the real danger though are the small caps and midcaps that have run up crazy,some over 100% in months…they may correct 25% to 50%…yes that high !  

At June 30,2014 ,Equity mutual funds saw record absolute rise in average AUM in the quarter, up by Rs 33000 crore or 16% to Rs 2,36,000 crore led by mark to market gains and inflows. The equity funds’ contribution to the gains in the industry assets was the highest among all categories

While this is to be expected on the back of the resounding BJP Victory and Narendra Modi assuming Prime Ministership there needs to some caution that should be exercised especially by those seeking instant profits and gratification as Sensex has crossed 26000 levels and seems to be running a little ahead of fundamentals for the near term on the back of  BJP & Narendra Modi sweeping the elections,FII Net Inflows exceeding US $ 8 Billion in 2014 till date and Great Expectations from the Budget in particular and the Government in general going forward

Great Expectations from the Union Budget this Thursday are countered by great challenges that continue to confront us on the economic and geo political front…Iraq & Ukraine Tension can escalate further causing Oil Price to surge even further past US 120/barrel and putting pressure on the Rupee…though a lot of the pressure has been taken off by record FII Net Inflows into India this year into both Debt & Equity

The Budget Backdrop is :

High ~ Inflation,Deficits & Debts

Low ~ Economic Growth with Manufacturing sector that needs urgent revival

45% + of the Projected FY 15 Fiscal Deficit has been reached in the first two months April & May  of FY 14 itself 

There is little room to lower Interest Rates immediately….so manufacturing thrust can be provided through diluting the Land Acquisition Act and opening out or increasing FDI cap in many sectors

It is commonly expected that the Budget will be kind to the Infrastructure,Housing Finance,Power & Banking Sector….a major beneficiary of this should also be the Cement Sector read more

What an Amusing Paradox ~ the Indian Government is feeding the Poor with One Hand and the Foreigner with another !

It was a day that Supreme Court livened up by paving the way for Dance Bars to be reopened in Mumbai !

What an Amusing Paradox ~ the Indian Government is feeding the Poor with One Hand and the Foreigner with another !

The Government just passed a Food Security Ordinance that will cost Rs 124000 crs every year ,that’s US $ 21 billion ~ and the government says this will benefit 85 crore of the 120 crore Indian Population

And today it has been forced to enhance and open out Foreign Direct Investment Caps  in many sectors ~ Just a matter of coincidence that last year the FDI Flow was just @ US $ 20 billion

Sad ! ~Our Weakening Rupee is weakening us ~ Why should it be weakened in the first place !

Sad !  ~that a Nation that’s boasts Advances in Nuclear,Space,IT Services and even the White and Green Revolutions in Agriculture has been bullied and blackmailed and is forced to go down on it’s knees to play servile to overseas influences with vested Indian Interests

There is simply a terrible and deliberate Bad Governance and Policy Paralysis  on Serious and destabilising Issues of  Economy,Security and Social  Matters

This is a Government for the Rich,by the Rich and of the Rich ! ~ Crony Capitalism and Corruption at it’s best or worst ! ~ it clears Jet-Etihad Deal in days but in so many years it cannot fathom out effective measures and decisions on how to control spiralling Food Inflation that affects 120 crore Indians .It has failed on all fronts except raising the levels of Corruptions so that now every Indian knows there are seven ‘Zeroes’ in One Crore and ten ‘Zeroes’ in Thousand Crores and twelve ‘Zeroes’ in One lakh Crores !

And 120 crore Indians are literally paying the price ! ~ Retail Inflation Fangs have been out for years now biting into  us ~ My Wife asserts it’s cheaper me to work from Home ! ~ I tell her let Petrol cross Rs 100 per litre first !

Ironically to protect our asset values we have to consider US $ Investments ! ~ and even Gold ! ~ but the Government urges us not to buy Gold so that India can reduce it’s Current Deficit !

And any Indian with any self pride,self dignity and self esteem and a true patriot to boot cannot  help but lose his or her mind and get bitterly angry at the stupid Government idiots who keep parading on TV News & Business Channels raising their voices,and not their arguments,  and getting personal with the opposition and trying to defend the Government read more

Pained to see our Rupee savaged like this !~We desperately need a New Leadership

To me, a veteran Economy observer for now a quarter of a century and more and a patriot to boot it really pains to see my Rupee being savaged like this by external forces aided by some internal vested interest demons and we are clearly helpless !

It is abundantly clear that the root of this lies in the Crony Capitalism ~ it is the Culprit

Our political and bureaucratic and financial and corporate czars have literally sold out our nation on a host of fronts allowing us to be rammed despite full knowledge of the ramifications in the short and long term

An extraordinary nation run down by ordinary men ! ~ their bankruptcy of Mind and Intention has bankrupted our Nation ! ~ and they now profess Financial Literacy and Financial Inclusion as Twin Prime Objectives ! ~ Do they really care  ! ~ They’ve stashed away for Good ~ for Generations ! ~ and yet lead us ~ rebelling against the Supreme Court decision to ban Convicts from being MPs and MLAs and not allowing a genuine Lokpal Bill that will make all of them accountable in the fullest sense be introduced

While a depreciating Rupee actually is an Export Booster and a good thing if it can be leveraged~ but in reality the situation is that our Imports are US $ 500 b while Exports are US $ 300 b ~ our FX Reserves have been @ US 300 b for five years now but our external debt has zoomed to US $ 400 b !

In 1991 our Rupee was Rs 18 to the US $ before it was devalued by 18% overnight by the FM and now PM,Mr Manmohan Singh as he introduced a host of modern economic reforms and excited the Nation

In 22 years since it has sunk past Rs 60 to the US $ despite achieving high GDP Growth rates in many years ~Our Rupee should rise when our Economy rises ! unless of course USA rises relatively more !~ but how do you explain that our Rupee continues to sink despite USA battling recession and economic woes and being a highly leveraged economy !

Is our continuing dependence on Rising Oil Imports to fuel our Economy to achieve high GDP Growth Rates solely to blame !?

Those who lead us and make Policies that rule us simply have failed to understand the practical co-relation & realities and impacts of Inflation,Interest Rates and Exchange rates

These political leaders have Miserably failed in negotiating hard with USA & Eurozone and have been bullied and ,I daresay, even blackmailed in allowing them access to India cheaply when their own markets are saturated and they need ours for their survival ! ~ it’s like when these countries make economic decisions on their subsidies for instance they need to protect their own and win but when India makes such decisions too,they need to win too !!! read more

All Drops !~RBI the Repo ~DMK the UPA~ Markets the Sensex ~Cyprus an Economic Bomb !

All Drops !~RBI the Repo ~DMK the UPA~ Markets the Sensex ~Cyprus an Economic Bomb !

Currently the only way to win the Equity Trading & Derivatives Game is by not playing it !

Union Budget 2013 ~ India is a BLESsed Economy…Felt like a stand up comedian as had the house of 400 well informed investors in splits !

Union Budget 2013 ~ India is a BLESsed Economy

Felt like a stand up comedian as had the house of 400 well informed investors in splits !  when I address and interacted with them on Budget Day Feb 28 evening itself at a Budget Review Event jointly hosted by AIVF,JITO and the BSE Brokers Forum at KC College Auditorium

Gaurav Parikh on Dias before his Humorous Address to 400 in the audience On Budget Day Feb 28,2013

Covered this on our Company website as below :

SCRIP STANDPOINT ~ A View

Slide Share ~ The Presentation at the Event to support the Address & Interaction