Looooooooong Full House Saturday Equity Mumbai Workshop Sept 14 2019

It was a looooooooong,should have held it over two days,  Full House Equity Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,September 14,2019 with a whole spectrum of smart participants that made for really invigorating interaction ~they came from Mumbai,Gurgaon & Pune ~ from young upwardly mobile grads & post grads from top ranked Management Institutes in India,UK (London) & USA(Harvard) to ‘ well tuned in’ professionals from the IT ,Consultancy,Broking,Corporate & Banking Sectors to veteran high networth investors . We commenced at 9.30 am & concluded well beyond 7.30 pm ~ 🙂 should have arranged dinner too

Thank you Guys !

Here are a few candid clicks from the Workshop :

The Coverage was expansive & the Interaction from Participants very intelligent & which opened out many threads that we examined with anecdotal support . When analysing a company ,they asked what is “Non Negotiable” &  “How to have Foresight as on Hindsight we are always right”

Really a lot was covered ,some of which is below  :

  • Macros through :
  1. Examining the Equity Table’s four legs of Valuation,Liquidity,Momentum & Sentiment & the Impact of FPI Flows ~ when Valuation,which should be the strongest leg,sometimes takes a back seat as Liquidity or even a lack of it drives the momentum & sentiment
  2.  Not getting Seduced by any Bounce at  Friday closing Sensex 37385 & Nifty 11076 Levels as Caution is strongly indicated by domestic & overseas economy & geo-political headwinds
  3. Negative Interest Rates Era vs the Magic of Compounding in such meltdowns
  4. Sensex & Earnings & Market Cap & low GDP growth Dynamics on Levels & Valuations ~ Past,Present & Forward & why downside risk remains wide open while the upside appears capped for now ~ we referred to 1991/92 abnormally high Sensex PE pre Harshad Mehta Scam exposure & the High PE in 2000 with Ketan Parekh was in action & where the markets were clearing running ahead of fundamentals by huge margins~ we referred to the Sensex PE of just 6 in the late 1980s when VP Singh was the PM 1988~ we covered Mkt Cap/GDP Highs pre Lehman collapse in 2007/8 & the levels now
  5. Fx Reserves  & Exchange Rate Risk &  the Risk of increasing Sovereign Debt as planned by Government ~ How our Rupee has always had a South trajectory,except when it soared from Rs 49 to the US $ to Rs 39 to the US $ creating havoc especially in the Diamond Sector
  6. Why Inversely co-related Gold & US $ are moving up together instead
  7. Turm-Oil & Impact on Fiscal Deficit & Rupee  like last happened in 2007/8( On Saturday at the workshop we were not yet clued in to the Drone Attack on the Oil Refinery in Saudi Arabia that saw Oil Prices dangerously soar 20% in spot) ~ India is hugely dependent on Oil Imports
  8. Interest & Inflation rates
  9. Trump ~ Not sure if he’s a macro or micro factor !
  • Micros through many companies  & sector dynamics covering :
  1. Checklist on how to Smartly & Effectively & thus Quickly Read a voluminous Annual Report
  2. Our Five Steps for Evaluating a Company for Investment
  3. Impact on the Financial Statements in Scenarios like Buy Back,Rights Issues,Fictitious Sales,RBI issuing a divergence on Provisioning for NPAs,non linear jump in Sales Realisations,5 G Spectrum Fees,Permanent Diminution in Investments,Monetising Assets & Depreciation of the Rupee
  4. Quick Brief on Absolute & Relative Valuation & how to prepare a quick Valuation Grid from the Annual Report, Market Price Trends & Shareholding
  5. Why Liquidity more than Profitability is the ‘Circle of Life’  for a Company as viewed through the lens of the Cash Flow Statement dervived from the Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss Ac & that distinguishes operating,financing & investing flows
  6. Corporate Governance Issues on inadequate Disclosure or Non Disclosure, Incorrect & questionable Accounting Treatment & Lack of Transparency &  irresponsible (deliberate?)  Management utterances  that give a leg to Insider Trading & huge Profits through  Derivatives Play
  7. Courage & Conviction Promoter or Institutional recent Buying in Vodafone,Yes Bank,I B Real Estate & Tata Motors & seeing more wealth destruction since in these   
  8. Basis for Disclaimer of Opinion by the Auditor of Reliance Infrastructure & what holds out some hope
  9. Intangibles,Investments & Impairments
  10. Reliance Industries’s Enterprise Value,Revenue Segments Potential,Spin offs of the Jio Telecom Infra into two trusts, Aramco’s 20% stake being negotiated in the Refining,Petroleum Retailing & Petrochemicals Business that should lead to further demerger & reviving & scaling the Gas Exploration Operations
  11. How Defaults & Corporate Governance Issues decimated into or near oblivion Eros,Cox & Kings,ManPasand,Tree House Education,Satyam,Jet Airways,Kingfisher & Talwalkars & is there any hope of operational & share price recovery with Asset values holding out some hope in a few ~ How Clearly the Statutory Auditors & Credit Rating Agencies were negligent or intentionally turned a blind eye in many cases
  12. Huge Potential Outlay of the ‘Nal sey Jal’ Scheme of the Government & the new Jal Shakti Ministry focus that should benefit many companies if the implementation & execution is as noteworthy as the intent
  13. How IndAs 115 continues to affect Bombay Dyeing
  14. How Exchanges continue to accept outright untrue or tepid clarifications from Companies
  15. Reference to Investment Gurus & Living Legends Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch Approaches & Success
  16.  Coverage of a few sectors like Defence, Hydrocarbons,Broking,Telecom,Real Estate,NBFCs,Banks & Automobiles & Disruption that’s in play in many
  17. Consolidation & Capitalisation of PSU Banks & the controversial Acquisition of Laxmi Vilas Bank by I B Housing Finance pending RBI approval
  18. Common Investor Mistakes

The next Equity Workshop is scheduled  pre-Diwali for Saturday ,October 19,2019 & will be announced soon on www.jsalphaa.com & social media

Touched by some warm & constructive feedback from participants :

  • thanks for a lovely interactive session…”
  • “enjoyed your session yday”
  • “it was great to meet again & reskill to be better prepared for opportunities which would arise”
  • “Thanks for being the Enabler,the last few days have been very encouraging”
  • “Cover the Scenarios Exercise more with Investor focus than just on Accounting Impact & take in a few Annual Reports before Lunch”  

😆 & I swear I did not pay for these ones !

  • ” You are very good at what you do,comes naturally to you,with a vastness of the subject to cover you did justice to cover the best you could with your insights and experience of all the treasures of knowledge,you are an encyclopedia of the subject with case studies,which is the best way of teaching, sharing & learning according to me,the various industries that you know of,the processes & the products,the promoters & the pitfalls,the auditors & the audited,you can understand in the readings the stated & the unstated,intention & intended,you truly personify_the integration of intellect with instinct_”   
  • “Whoever missed this one, missed learning a radical way to look at balance sheets. Very practically in a few minutes you can strip away the padding and bullshit that promoters hide their sins behind. If the stock market’s motto or rather rider has always been caveat emptor or buyer beware, Gaurav’s lessons in Analysis would ensure that a “fool and his money are not soon parted” for when emotions like fear and greed coupled with ignorance seize us even the wisest are prone to behave like fools. Especially the wisest!”
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    2020 & 20-20 ~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat Aug 5 2017

    Historic Saturday,July 1,2017~Indian Govt launches the much awaited huge Indirect Tax Reform ~ GST ~ Goods & Services Tax ~ 🙂  Here’s my GST Launch & Announcement too ~ Gaurav’s Saturday Training

    2020 & 20-20 ~ The Long & Short of it ~Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, August 5, 2017  ~ Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    On the back of a  fantastic Mumbai Workshop on Saturday,June 17,2017 here’s another opportunity to invest the first Saturday in August 2017 with me ! ~ especially for those who could not make it or could not be accommodated as Registrations had closed within a week of opening ~ expecting a few repeat participants too ~ what better endorsement could there be ! ~🙂 While you can call it an Encore ,this time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept another exciting Theme to spot & assess both Long & Short Term Opportunities in Equity :

    2020 & 20-20 ~ The Long & Short of it

    As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    Plan to cover over 25 Fundamental Opportunities in Specific Sectors & Companies  to assess Value vs Price both in the Short Term & the Longer Term ~ thus ideal for both Traders & Investors

    Here’s some fresh feedback from participants of the very recent June 17,2017 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price~ Wealth Destroyers : Potential Multibaggers where we conducted Macro & Micro Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises & more & even played an animated Corporate Tambola !  ~ Some participants came in from Dubai,Malaysia,Delhi,Cochin & Ichikaranji too ~ & what a lovely & lively Mix from retail investors to HNWI market veterans & professionals from FPIs,Fund & Broking Houses & Institutions ~ spread in age from early 20’s to the 60’s

    “Again Sir you Rocked & it was my fortune to attend your wonderful workshop that too three times in a row ~ it is your simplicity, down to earth nature & great FUNDA knowledge ( how to value a stock so precisely ) made me motivated to attend your w’shop again and again & i hope in future also, I will be able to attend your w’shop ~ Every w’shop is so unique”

     

    “indeed a great learning & educational experience….totally luv your analysis of stocks….looking forward to the next one”

    “Always fortunate to attend…get motivated by your knowledge & the attitude  you carry with…thanks for sharing your knowledge & helping people like me to grow better” read more

    Great Interaction at the Saturday Equity Workshop

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    Great Interaction at the Saturday Fundamental Equity Value vs Price Mumbai Workshop…we began at 9.30 am & concluded just before 8 pm,breaking just for Lunch ~ Lovely Ginger Tea was served & welcomed heartily thrice & tetrapak drinks once during the day during the interaction & presentation itself !

    As expected the November 8,2016  Demonetisation Announcement & it’s immediate implementation  & it’s continuing  Impact on Equity Markets was debated for awhile on whether stated Objectives will be met or are they really any ulterior motives

    Also briefly brought up was the ugly & messy ongoing tussle in the Tata Group to oust Cyrus Mistry as Chairman & also as Director from the Tata Companies he’s on Board & how will all of this impact Tata Companies Share Prices

    We did cover quite a lot with the enthusiasm  peaking while covering the Assets,Earnings & Market Relative & Absolute Valuation Basis to assess many Listed Companies,from Core to Penny Stocks to some in the news…. all at latest Friday December 2,2016 Prices

    The Feedback has been very warm as were the participants as they had great fun in interacting with each other too ,especially when playing the Trust & Investment Games…..I’m sure they will vie with each other to buy out TCS at US $ 60 billion or more EV if Ratan Tata does really decide to influence the Board to plan to sell !  🙂

    Participant views on the Sensex Trend in the short term  were interesting….a few had no view,a few expect sideways movement while one really enthusiastic & unmarried participant from out of town (he came again inside a few months for his second workshop with me) thinks it will crash to 13000 while a married participant was optimistic in stating it will regain 29000  in early 2017….we discussed this threadbare & whether Index Trend really mattered in Stock Selection….we also covered Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing

    Yeah ! You Guys were real cool & am glad you’ll  all left with some meaningful Insights than when you walked into the Workshop  &  have strengthened your confidence & conviction to apply them in Practice for serious Wealth Creation through Direct Equity

    While all of you walked out with a Kit,Memento, & literally a Tin of ‘Sweet’ Memories,I was particularly impressed,when asked by me to decide, with your immediate & unanimous vote for the ones who walked away with the rewards for the best interaction read more

    Demonetisation:GDP & Real Estate & Sensex affected~For how long?Attend the Workshop

    Would Love to have you at the Fundamental Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,December 3,2016

    Stock Selection ~ Value vs Price ~ Positioning for 2017 & Beyond

    🙂 It could turn out to be the best Investment in 2016 that you made for 2017 & Beyond !

    Demonetisation : GDP & Real Estate & Sensex affected ~ For how long ?

    What is more compelling right now ? ~ Opportunity in Equity or the Significance of Disciplined & Astute Asset Allocation ~ Would depend on how Aggressive or how Scared you are ! ~ or as wryly stated how Wise or Foolish you are ! ~ In the context of Investment,Trading & Speculating do you react or pro-act rationally or irrationally,impulsively or with reasoning ? Do you Sweat ,not because of Global Warming or Warm Weather,but because you’re in losses ? Discover your Risk Profile & be True to it

    For answers to this & much more do take the opportunity to attend the Mumbai Fundamental Equity Full Day Workshop on Saturday,December 3,2016 .Click below to register online

    Stock Selection ~ Value vs Price ~ Positioning for 2017 & Beyond

    Q 3 FY 17 GDP is expected to drop below 6%  & Full Year FY 17 GDP will drop sub 7%.Sensex is already correcting sharply after Demonetisation was announced to Shock & Awe on November 8,2016.

    Sensex opened 2016 at 26100 levels & dropped to 22500 levels early in the year before  smartly racing up over 30% to 29000 levels.On November 8,2016 it closed at 27591 just before Demonetisation Drive was declared  & launched at midnight.In just eight trading sessions Sensex corrected to wipe of net gains of over 6.5% in 2016 .In the Ninth session today,November 22,106 it recovered to regain 26000

    => Is Demonetisation just MAFA ,that’s Mistaking Action For Achievement & it is just Remonetisation ?

    => Will Sensex test its 2016 low of 22495 again in the short term or the current post Demonetisation announcement correction has already discounted the impact significantly & it will stabilise & turnaround from here to cross 30000 next year ?

    => Real Estate Stocks have slumped over 25% already .Will they slump a lot more when Physical Real Estate actually corrects by an expected 25%?

    => How do you Position for Wealth Creation through Equity in this Flux of Demonetisation & Donald Trump’s Truimph in the US Presidential Race & an Inevitable Fed Rate Hike coming up  that is affecting all the four legs of the Equity Table~ Liquidity,Sentiment,Momentum & Valuation? read more

    GST for Wealth Creation~Gauravs Stock Training~Bangalore Saturday September 10 2016

    🙂  GST for Wealth Creation~Gaurav’s Stock Training~Bangalore Saturday September 10 2016 ~ Just be There

    Hey how’s that for a corny lift off  GST : Goods & Services Tax !

    Well one’s for Wealth Creation of our Nation ~ will add to our GDP ~ & the other is for Wealth Creation for yourself through Direct Equity Fundamental Training at Bangalore on September 10,2016 at The Chancery

    Will be covering many selections & how in FOUR STEPS to assess Value and pitch it against the Share Price in many scenarios like Strategic Stakes & Holding Companies,Asset/Segment/Division/Subsidiary Spinoffs,Scale Potential,Acquisitions,Sector turnarounds,Niche Plays etc…will show you how to source & interpret relevant,reliable & timely data

    We shall also debate with case studies whether “India & Insider Trading are Inseparable”

    There are Awards & Rewards for those who interact best and even provide solutions to what I shall ask in game play & case studies especially during the Investor Psychology & Mistakes Session

    Registrations are pouring in & this is Just to remind you it’s early bird discount all inclusive Rs 7000 price till August 15,2016 only after which it increases to Rs 7700

    So just click online below now to register & pay & book your seat

    Fundamental Equity Training Workshop Bangalore :Stock Selection~Value Vs Price~Saturday, September 10, 2016

    You can make specific requests too .Here are a few already from those registered :

     

    Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail and Centum Electronics. Discussion required on growth companies which have good future prospects

     

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    When to sell, Managing over-diversification for salaried (SIP) investors

     

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    I AM A SMALL RETAIL INVESTOR HAVING SMALL KNOWLEDGE IN STOCK MARKET. SIR I HOPE THIS WORKSHOP WILL HELP ME IN FINDING STOCKS LIKE ASTEC LIFESCIENCE

     

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    Deliberating Gold & Silver vs Equity & their current weightage in Asset Allocation

     

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    Stock Selection-Value vs Price~Bangalore Fundamental Equity Workshop on Sat Sept 10

    🙂 Hey! would love to interact with  you at my full day Bangalore Fundamental Equity Workshop at ‘The Chancery’ on Saturday,September 10,2016

    Stock Selection – Value Vs Price

    Just opened Online Registration & Payment~Limited Seats~Early Birds can register & pay Rs 7000 all inclusive for it then goes up to Rs 7700 later

    On clicking the above link to register & pay online you will also get Full Workshop Details on Content Coverage & how you can Benefit with Fundamental Training Pointers for Serious Wealth Creation through Direct Equity with astute Stock Selections

    Whether you are just a Beginner or even a Veteran in Equities,you don’t need to prepare before hand for attending the workshop….but I do reward those who interact well with me and come out with some awesome solutions in situations that we discuss,especially on Investor Mistakes

    While registering you can also request for specific coverage at the workshop of any listed company or relevant issue that impacts markets and valuation…I shall of course be covering Investor Gurus,Investing Approaches,Investing Themes & Investing Mistakes & a lot more

    🙂 Would be awesome if you could be there…so do invest in one day with me in Bangalore~Saturday ,September 10,2016

    Cheers!

    Fundamental-Equity-Workshop-Bangalore-10Sept16-JSAA