Stanley Druckenmiller warns of an Endgame in Equities ~ He’s into Gold

Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller warns of an Endgame in Equities ~ He’s into Gold 

He makes out quite a compelling case for an endgame in Equities with this address earlier this month at the celebrated Annual Sohn Investor Conference of Hedge Fund Managers

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-07/stan-druckenmiller-endgame-his-full-apocalyptic-presentation

He’s a self made Billionaire famous largely for the US $ One Billion Gains made in quick time in 1992 when he was with George Soros & they shorted the Pound

His own Fund Duquesne gave reportedly average returns of 30% from 1986 to 2010 when he converted it into a Family Office as he feared he could not continue giving good returns

He’s greatly nervous about the financial leveraging that continues in US & China &  has been critical of the US Fed & it’s Governors for over a decade now

The Fed has borrowed more from future consumption than ever before…..While policymakers have no end game, markets do.”

He supports his nervousness with compelling statistics

  • The  US Total  Credit Market Debt  as a % of GDP is 350%
  • The Net Debt vs Operating Cash Flow shows a current 5 year divergence like never before post World War II
  • The above Indicating that Corporate Debt was not used productively for R & D & Capex but rather for BuyBacks & M & A

He is nervous about China & Japan both

Worth Noting his Views

An Investment Case for Silver !?

Gold & Silver Price History Last 10 Years

 

Gold Silver Price Ratio

How do you read the above two graphs sourced from Seeking Alpha ?

An Investment Case for Silver Perhaps !?

From one graph that shows the Price trends over last 10 years you can observe that  the Prices of both the bullion,Gold & Silver are directly co-related,albeit with some varying intensity

The second graph shows the Gold to Silver Ratio over the last 25 years and drives home a point that the varying intensity of price movements between the two offers opportunities

Currently as on April 11,2016 ,per oz Gold rules at @ US $ 1250 levels and Silver at @ US $ 15 => 83% G/S ratio….you observe that this 21st Century in the past 15 years the 80% mark has been just about reached just thrice,including now in 2016 with gaps of several years…over most periods it has remained in the 50% to 60% range and only once a few years ago dropped to @ 30% …over 90% was way back in the 1990-95 period

So what are the scenarios for Silver in the next three years?

  1. Very Bullish ~  Silver rises faster than Gold does to bridge this 83% ratio
  2. Moderately Bullish ~ Silver rises as Gold remains stable to bridge this 83% ratio
  3. Mildly Bullish ~ Silver rises but Gold  rises faster  and the G/S ratio moves over 90%+ like in 1990-95
  4. Mildly Bullish ~ Silver rises but Gold falls to bridge the 83% ratio
  5. Bearish ~ Gold falls and thus does silver
  6. Status Quo ~ Both Silver & Gold remain at current levels and maintain 80%+ ratio

Higher than normal 83% ratio strengthens probability of Bullish scenarios  1 & 2 for Silver

First Quarter of 2016 has seen Stocks & Sensex move  lower….but as they say there’s a Silver Lining !

Now when will these Jewelers call of their Strike ! ?…or is there a Silver ETF you can play?

What’s your call on Silver?

Relaxed Weekend thus far ~Inspired by Friends & Food & Fab Views

Golf Course View from the Library

Relaxed  Extended Weekend thus far……

Thursday Night….enjoyed  dinner with a couple clients and friends that ended with a sinful Apricot Pluf and  Fresh Anjeer & Walnut Icecream

Friday Night….chilled  with good friends over a lovely dinner 

Noon Saturday…. lots to ponder in solitude…rouble crashing 23%,’Swachh’ India and ‘UnSwachh’ BCCI,Subdued Gold and Oil Prices and who’s behind this,Maharashtra Politics,’Make in India’,Sensex at 28000…gathered and penned thoughts inspired by the Golf Course view from the top from the Library…followed it by a great Lunch that began with Pumpkin soup with Pine Nuts & a Rocket Lettuce,Walnut and Pears Salad and ended with Terrine with Strawberry coulis !…all in soulful solitude

Later on Saturday evening…. Wife & I checked out Vir Das’ ‘History of India’ 90 min Comedy Act….it’s been running for quite some time now ….quite ‘Vir’ and hilarious…finally managed to catch the show at Sophia’s….caught up with friends too….we were all in splits…laugh riot…it’s stand out stand up stuff from Vir..he’s in a league of is own…some of his act is written by stand up comedians Rohan Joshi & Tanmay Bhatt….Vir’s new Act is ‘Battle of the Sexes’ and producer Ashwin Gidwani tells us that the guys and girls sit separately in the audience for a good reason….surely will catch up with this new act too….alright Vir have plugged both your shows so you can now send the commission…..   😆 …followed this with  a really late dinner of Mushroom & Almond Soup and Water Chestnuts in Soya and Balsamic Mushrooms and  Balinese Curry & Rice with friends

Morning Sunday…. had a Hot Strong Force Water Shower…recommend it strongly as a cheaper and more invigorating alternative to massage…followed by a Healthy Akoori on Toast Breakfast with Fresh Orange Juice and Strong Pot of Mint Tea…also managed a Masala Dosa !

Healthy Breakfast of Akoori on Toast & Fresh Orange Juice with Pot of Strong Mint Tea

 …now ready for a light Sunday late afternoon bite of  Pringles with fresh Garlic Mushroom Dip 

Maybe Catch the Epic ‘Interstellar’ this Sunday evening

…and tomorrow is another week that begins with great expectations of one of our recos running away  and welcoming new clients !   😆

You Guys too hope are enjoying the weekend and will have a fruitful week coming up read more

What an Amusing Paradox ~ the Indian Government is feeding the Poor with One Hand and the Foreigner with another !

It was a day that Supreme Court livened up by paving the way for Dance Bars to be reopened in Mumbai !

What an Amusing Paradox ~ the Indian Government is feeding the Poor with One Hand and the Foreigner with another !

The Government just passed a Food Security Ordinance that will cost Rs 124000 crs every year ,that’s US $ 21 billion ~ and the government says this will benefit 85 crore of the 120 crore Indian Population

And today it has been forced to enhance and open out Foreign Direct Investment Caps  in many sectors ~ Just a matter of coincidence that last year the FDI Flow was just @ US $ 20 billion

Sad ! ~Our Weakening Rupee is weakening us ~ Why should it be weakened in the first place !

Sad !  ~that a Nation that’s boasts Advances in Nuclear,Space,IT Services and even the White and Green Revolutions in Agriculture has been bullied and blackmailed and is forced to go down on it’s knees to play servile to overseas influences with vested Indian Interests

There is simply a terrible and deliberate Bad Governance and Policy Paralysis  on Serious and destabilising Issues of  Economy,Security and Social  Matters

This is a Government for the Rich,by the Rich and of the Rich ! ~ Crony Capitalism and Corruption at it’s best or worst ! ~ it clears Jet-Etihad Deal in days but in so many years it cannot fathom out effective measures and decisions on how to control spiralling Food Inflation that affects 120 crore Indians .It has failed on all fronts except raising the levels of Corruptions so that now every Indian knows there are seven ‘Zeroes’ in One Crore and ten ‘Zeroes’ in Thousand Crores and twelve ‘Zeroes’ in One lakh Crores !

And 120 crore Indians are literally paying the price ! ~ Retail Inflation Fangs have been out for years now biting into  us ~ My Wife asserts it’s cheaper me to work from Home ! ~ I tell her let Petrol cross Rs 100 per litre first !

Ironically to protect our asset values we have to consider US $ Investments ! ~ and even Gold ! ~ but the Government urges us not to buy Gold so that India can reduce it’s Current Deficit !

And any Indian with any self pride,self dignity and self esteem and a true patriot to boot cannot  help but lose his or her mind and get bitterly angry at the stupid Government idiots who keep parading on TV News & Business Channels raising their voices,and not their arguments,  and getting personal with the opposition and trying to defend the Government read more

Union Budget 2013 ~ India is a BLESsed Economy…Felt like a stand up comedian as had the house of 400 well informed investors in splits !

Union Budget 2013 ~ India is a BLESsed Economy

Felt like a stand up comedian as had the house of 400 well informed investors in splits !  when I address and interacted with them on Budget Day Feb 28 evening itself at a Budget Review Event jointly hosted by AIVF,JITO and the BSE Brokers Forum at KC College Auditorium

Gaurav Parikh on Dias before his Humorous Address to 400 in the audience On Budget Day Feb 28,2013

Covered this on our Company website as below :

SCRIP STANDPOINT ~ A View

Slide Share ~ The Presentation at the Event to support the Address & Interaction