3 Seats Left ! ~ Sat Feb 17 2018 Mumbai Funda Eq Workshop

3 Seats Left ! ~ Sat Feb 17 2018 Mumbai Funda Eq Workshop

Reserve yours now =>  http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Fundamental MasterClass in Mumbai Stock Selection ~ Value Vs Price – 2018 ~ Markets Major & Mature ~ Sensex 36000 ~ Taking Stock

Saturday, February 17, 2018

At the previous Funda workshops in June & August 2017  we thread-bared Bombay Dyeing at Rs 70 to assess Value Vs Price in the price range of Rs 70 to Rs 85 & participants got excited to lap it up….in months it raced away to Rs 300 & now stands at Rs 250…of course Markets have been kind too…we had covered over 50 companies across sectors like Yuken,Rama Steel & Grauer on Valuation through Assets & Earnings & Situational Studies like M & A, Delisting & Turnarounds & the outcomes have been quite enjoyed by most participants as the feedback shows……. for what’s Academics & Theory without Action & Application

As Usual there’s already a good mix of participants from retail to HNWI & from FPIs, broking houses,PSUs  & MNC Banks….coming even from overseas & outstation for this Mumbai Workshop

Do try & make it….will be fun interacting fun-da-mentally with all of you on Re-positioning & Reinvestment Risks & on Corporate Governance & Controversies as we play the Corporate Tambola and exercise other Mind Gums on the Magic of Compounding & the holding of Convictions of Fundamental Selections through even steep market corrections especially if fully invested !

When I had announced this workshop just a fortnight ago the Sensex was at a record 36000+ and featured in the Workshop Title…In days since then following a global correction and arguably an uninspiring Union Budget that re-introduced Long Terms Capital Gains Tax the Sensex fell sharply below 34000 with many non large caps taking a hit of even 30 % with Vakrangee decimating over 50% from over Rs 500 to under Rs 200 on Corporate Governance issues

Even Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s Equity Portfolio has taken a US $ 11.2 billion hit ~ of course he’s not bothered ~ should you be when closer home we continue to be suckers in Company Price Run Ups where Quality is clearly suspect & where our PSU Banks continue to reel under the weight of NPAs with SBI announcing a huge Q 3 Loss,the first in many quarters, because of this ? ~ Capitalisation & Consolidation process is on  ~ are PSU Banks potential wealth creators going forward?

What Now ! ?

See You Sat

Cheers !

Sat Feb 17 2018~Mumbai Funda Equity Workshop~Taking Stock at Sensex 36000

Hey ! Here’s the Announcement that’s been eagerly awaited for the next Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop after Full Houses in June & August 2017

Just Click on it to register

Fundamental MasterClass in Mumbai
Stock Selection ~ Value Vs Price – 2018 ~ Markets Major & Mature ~ Sensex 36000 ~ Taking Stock

Saturday, February 17, 2018

As usual it’s on a Full Saturday .This time on February 17,2018 at my Fort HO in Mumbai.The Investment,inclusive of GST etc, is Rs 18000 or Rs 16200 each for 3 or more registrations from a group

As Limited Seats,do sign up quick for debating & discussing wealth creation & destruction through direct Equity in Indian Listed Companies

We are at all time Highs on the Sensitive Indices with the Sensex at 36000+ & Nifty at 11000+

At my last August 2017 Workshop the Sensex & Nifty were at 32300 & 10000 levels.They’re up 10%+ since then in six months but the magic has been in Specific Scrips which have recorded life changing surges if you were only invested in them !

For illustration when guiding on Valuation with regards to Non Linear Earnings Potential  in the June & August Workshop I had the participants engage in a Valuation exercise for half an hour on Bombay Dyeing at Rs 70 to Rs 82 levels & draw conclusions with some convictions.It raced away to Rs 300 & it’s now at Rs 250 levels ~ yet over 200% inside six months…of course Markets have been kind too in this period

In the August Workshop we played out a 20% CAGR scenario over 5 years to explain the Magic of Compounding.We used Yuken at Rs 1877 as an illustration taking into account it’s financials,past,present & future potential.If at 5 years in 2022 it would reach Rs 4670 it would give this 20% CAGR.It’s up 150% absolute touching Rs 4700 today inside 6 months ! …Life Changing Wealth Creation in Equity is simply the Magic of Compounding in a right Selection based on the Valuation leg of the Equity Table

What Now? What Next?

Bank of America thinks Sensex will slide & close at 32000 end 2018 ….Of course in 2015 they had forecast it would be 54000 ! yes ! 54000 by end 2018 ! & Ambit thinks we are in the last stage of the Rally ~ but they’ve been remarkably bearish all of 2017 & am sure their clients must have missed the 2017 gravy train in Equities ~ While Many think we are in a huge Bull Rally for Years to come & one even has called 35000 as the new Sensex Bottom ~ Should we care about what they think ?

Or should we simply care about how to grow serious wealth through direct equity in Indian Markets & protect it while growing it ? That’s what this Workshop is about

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Insider in Panacea Biotec~up 30%~but Exchanges let it go!

Panacea Biotec~Insider~ but Exchanges let it go!

On January 12,2018, loss making,litigation led Panacea Biotec kept slumbering at Rs 230 levels with Volumes below 10000 on BSE

Suddenly it woke up on January 15,2018 shooting up to Rs 250 levels with Volumes of over 100000

This morning it’s crossed Rs 300

Company :PANACEA BIOTEC LTD. 531349

Period: 12-Jan-2018 to 23-Jan-2018

All Prices in Rs

Date Open High Low Close WAP No. of Shares
12-01-2018   38.05  239.90   231.45  233.25  235.03 9,775
15-01-2018  231.00  266.95  231.00  253.35  255.36 1,19,748
16-01-2018  253.35  264.00  252.15 253.70  257.60 24,406
17-01-2018  254.80  264.15 244.55  256.90  258.24 64,132
18-01-2018 262.90  283.95 260.00  264.70 272.82 2,61,399
19-01-2018 273.00 273.80 265.05 270.20  269.45 52,920
22-01-2018 273.35  291.00 265.00 288.45 282.78 1,26,136

BSE did seek a clarification from the company on  the morning of January 16,2018

https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=8304f7c6-8c7d-4074-b2ba-d21cdc5d1e3f

& of course Panacea did send it a reply the same day

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/41beb1d5-3505-4dc3-8852-ed5ab92889a2.pdf

It’s signed by Vinod Goel, Group CFO & Head Legal & Co Sec with a paragraph extract as below

“Further, the Company believes that there is no pending information/ announcement which in its opinion may have a bearing on the Volume behaviour in the scrip of the Company”

BSE of course, as is bound, put up this clarification for public view on their website

Wow ! because then promptly two days later on January 18, 2018 the Company makes a big Announcement being delighted to announce a collaboration through two long term agreements  with Serum Institute of India Pvt Ltd  & it’s subsidiary  for two Vaccines which have huge Global Potential

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/5a977535-fd5c-4298-91e8-5551146c4071.pdf 

This too is signed by Mr Vinod Goel.I’m sure he has a good explanation for this & I for one would love to hear it.Did he not know about the Collaboration just two days before he announced it ? Nah! ~ Of course he was not obliged to disclose it on January 16,2018?…but he could have worded his January 16,2018 clarification better

The Volumes on NSE of course are larger than BSE

In light of the big announcement by Panacea on January 18,2018,just two days after company claimed there is no pending information or announcement that could have affected Volume behavior the Exchanges must follow through with Panacea on this .It’s also easy to bring up who brought the shares of the company from January 15 to the morning of January 18,2018 before the Public Announcement of the tie up

They obviously knew before hand

That’s why the Price has moved past Rs 300 this morning with view that these vaccines could be game changers and literally life savers for Panacea if they achieve Scale Sales as potential declared in the press release as above.a ‘beaming’ Mr Adar Poonawala of Serum Institute says it’s a historic deal as the release states.Dr Rajesh Jain of Panacea too is buoyant

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Coffee with CEO Meet with IES MBA Students

IES MBA Meeting 1 IES MBA Meeting 2

Hosted MBA Finance Students from the IES Management Institute,Mumbai in their ‘Coffee with CEO ‘ Initiative & courtesy Purv Shah,a younger & equally if not more passionate trainer in Capital Markets

It also happened to be Children’s Day yesterday….always keep the child within alive

It was a pre lunch session for an hour or two…covered… Insider Trading & Integrity…Chasing Passion & not Paisa…seeking good mentorship & being with fun people,to learn from the best like a sportsperson…to evolve

…Oh ! & of course how to spot pedigree companies & people …mentioned a few of them to highlight Controversies & Corporate Misgovernance &  when to give a second chance too!…to read & read & read & then again read some more

…spoke of Richard Branson & his book ‘Screw It ,Just Do it’ that changed my opinion of him to one of respect…how both of us have one thing in common in that he has cheated death several times on his adventure trips while I have too but not out of choice in health issues,Sahara sandstorm,BSE Bomb Blast & a car accident

….to trust to grow,to see the best in people,to B+ which also is my blood group which they knew having read me up before coming across….to be decisive & responsible…be curious to expand knowledge…be vibrant…attract people to you,who love being around you….share,not be arrogant,let the E-go

Reiterated Theory without Application & Academics without Action is pointless….Eugene Fama & his Efficient Market Hypothesis & whether India & Insider Trading are truly Inseparable despite SEBI’s strengthening regulations

At the start itself posed a question to them ” What did you notice is or is not there in my office?”…a few answers came forth like “No Noise” or “Less Staff” or “Open Glass Cabins”…Yeah all of these but what I was seeking was ” No TV with Stock & News Channels blaring away” & it did come from one eager young gentleman who was promptly rewarded with a gift

Enjoyed interacting with them & I hope these fine young ladies & gentlemen took away at least one good thing from the meet

 

 

2020 & 20-20 ~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat Aug 5 2017

Historic Saturday,July 1,2017~Indian Govt launches the much awaited huge Indirect Tax Reform ~ GST ~ Goods & Services Tax ~ 🙂  Here’s my GST Launch & Announcement too ~ Gaurav’s Saturday Training

2020 & 20-20 ~ The Long & Short of it ~Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, August 5, 2017  ~ Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

On the back of a  fantastic Mumbai Workshop on Saturday,June 17,2017 here’s another opportunity to invest the first Saturday in August 2017 with me ! ~ especially for those who could not make it or could not be accommodated as Registrations had closed within a week of opening ~ expecting a few repeat participants too ~ what better endorsement could there be ! ~🙂 While you can call it an Encore ,this time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept another exciting Theme to spot & assess both Long & Short Term Opportunities in Equity :

2020 & 20-20 ~ The Long & Short of it

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Fundamental Opportunities in Specific Sectors & Companies  to assess Value vs Price both in the Short Term & the Longer Term ~ thus ideal for both Traders & Investors

Here’s some fresh feedback from participants of the very recent June 17,2017 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price~ Wealth Destroyers : Potential Multibaggers where we conducted Macro & Micro Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises & more & even played an animated Corporate Tambola !  ~ Some participants came in from Dubai,Malaysia,Delhi,Cochin & Ichikaranji too ~ & what a lovely & lively Mix from retail investors to HNWI market veterans & professionals from FPIs,Fund & Broking Houses & Institutions ~ spread in age from early 20’s to the 60’s

“Again Sir you Rocked & it was my fortune to attend your wonderful workshop that too three times in a row ~ it is your simplicity, down to earth nature & great FUNDA knowledge ( how to value a stock so precisely ) made me motivated to attend your w’shop again and again & i hope in future also, I will be able to attend your w’shop ~ Every w’shop is so unique”

 

“indeed a great learning & educational experience….totally luv your analysis of stocks….looking forward to the next one”

“Always fortunate to attend…get motivated by your knowledge & the attitude  you carry with…thanks for sharing your knowledge & helping people like me to grow better”

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Saturday Fundamental Equity Workshop ~ Tambola & Time just Flew!

Workshop Photos

It was a wonderful Saturday for all of us ~ a Full House ~Time just Flew!

The Mumbai Equity Workshop on Wealth Destroyers having the Potential to bounce back kicked off at 9.30 am stretched into 7 pm…began with a Tambola or Housie where they had to guess the Wealth Destroying company on the questions posed & strike off the name if it’s there on their Ticket…In fact each pulled out a question & posed it for all…Prizes for Jaldi 3 & Two Full Houses & a question Bank on 25 companies…like “Chor ! Chor!” & they got it ! ~ Kingfisher Airlines ! or Ethopian Counsel yet destroyed his Company  &  promptly the answer shot back “Karuturi”! Chocolates were given for each correct answer too while I spoke a minute or two on each company & how it was destroyed & whether it can revive

Covered Valuation,Sentiment,Momentum & Liquidity…the power of Compounding for Wealth Creation…FPI Flows Impact…Impact of Global & Domestic Economic & Geo-Political Head & Tail winds…the impact of three leading rates~inflation,interest & exchange….how to protect capital while growing it through the discipline of asset allocation & when to adopt tactical strategies & staying true to ones’ risk profile

…& if convinced on Equity & India…showed them why they should be…then should you go for passive index investing through Mutual Funds Schemes & be content with CAGRs of 10% to 15% over the years or should you go directly into Equity for specific selections for potential of higher gains…& why the latter should be your strategy…& why Fundamental rather than Technical Approach…& not to mistake luck for skills in such bullish markets

Tea & Coffee & a variety of Cold Beverages & Biscuits & Wafers were served through the day & we had to switch from a Copper Chimney Lunch Buffet arranged to a Soup,Salads,Sandwich & Desserts Buffet at Pizza By the Bay as the former’s kitchen had grappled with a fire the previous day & was closed on Saturday

Must Thank the Full House with Participants coming in specially from Dubai,Malaysia,Delhi,Cochin & Ichikaranji too…there were a few repeats from earlier workshops in Bangalore & Mumbai ~ take that as a thumbs up!…gratifying that within three to four days days of announcing this workshop end May 2017,it got full…surely Sensex at 31000+ and climbing has something to do with this ! 🙂

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