Boom!as FM Busts Corporate Tax!~Wow!How!Now!?

Released today under my authorship in the SCRIP STANDPOINT Module of Jeena Scriptech Alpha Advisors Pvt Ltd  

“How’s the Josh !?”

Boom!as FM Busts Corporate Tax!~Wow!How!Now!?

The effect of Fun & Excitement peaks when the cause is least expected

Market Sentiment has reversed dramatically & instantaneously !  

BSE & NSE  has seen the Sensex & Nifty created historic surges moving respectively 5.32% & 1921 points up to 38015 & 569 points to 11274 on Friday,September 20,2019 & even more by 2.83% to 39090 & 11600 on Monday ,September 23,2019 to aggregate a surge of 8.3% in just two trading days with Total Market Capitalisation zooming up in just these two trading days by Rs 10,45,700 crs or nearly US $ 150 Billion  to  Rs 148,87,830 crs or near US $ 2.1 Trillion ,thus regaining US $ 2 Trillion Capitalisation quickly ! 

Date Sensex Close Up/(Down)  Points, % Approx Total Market Cap

(Rs Crs)

Total Market Cap Up (Down )

Rs Crs, %

Friday ,September 13,2019

A Week Before

37385 1,42,42,950
Thursday,September 19,2019

Day before Tax Rate  Game Changing Significant Slash Announcement

 

36093 (1292), – 3.46 1,38,42,130 (4,00,820),  -2.8
Friday,September 20,2019

Morning of  FM’s Tax Rate  Game Changing Significant Slash Announcement

38015 1922, 5.32 % 1,45,34,237 6,92,107,   5
Monday,September 23,2019

On Second Trading Day after  FM’s Tax Rate  Game Changing Significant Slash Announcement

39090 1075, 2.83 %

&

2997 in two days, 8.3%

1,48,87,830 3,53,593,   2.43

&

10,45,700,   7.56 

Wow ! How !  Now ! ?

It took a Government Sacrifice of  Rs 1,45,000 crs or US $ 20 Billion in Corporate Tax Revenues to create a 7x sacrifice surge in Market Cap of US $ 150 Billion in just two trading days !

It’s like the Government conceding to the Corporate Sector ” Hey Guys ! we’re transferring our Revenues to you as you’ll can put it to more productive use by funding an Investment Capex Cycle to stimulate more growth for better returns than we can through increased Government Spending “

What is clearly a Market Valuation Re-Rating Move,on the morning of Friday,September 19,2019 our FM Mrs Nirmala Sitharaman announced,what should be seen as a forced measure, a Tax Bonanza for Corporates busting the Tax Rate from an effective high of 34.94% for most to an effective 25.168% with no requirement for those who opt for this rate,  to pay the Minimum Alternate Tax which too was slashed to an effective 17% from  the current 18.5%.Another major tax incentive will be a Tax rate of just 15% for manufacturing companies incorporated after October 1,2019  & who commence manufacturing by March end 2023

Such Tax Rate Cuts & Incentives  announcements should have been part of the budget in early July.If one recalls since the NDA came to power in 2014,it’s always been their stated intent to reduce the Corporate Tax Rates gradually to 25%.Economic slowdown is a catalyst to this ‘one shot’ reduction now & that’s why it can be viewed as a forced measure

It’s a ‘No Brainer’ that Markets would instantly turn euphoric as back of envelopes calculations see the Nifty 50 Companies,whose aggregate FY 19 PAT was Rs 370000 crs , benefit by a clean Rs 27000 crs or US $ 3.8 billion in FY 20 on this Tax Rate reduction.Factor in Earnings Growth before Tax & the benefit is even higher  read more

Shareholder Shenanigans ~ Hey Mister Aster whose Healthcare are you after !

Shareholder Shenanigans ~ Hey Mister Aster whose Healthcare are you after !

Invariably the Construction of  the Pre IPO Equity Capital of a Company  reveals the Fairness & Character & Mindset of Promoters & other Equity Stakeholders in it & extent of any obscene premium seduction if any 

What can we infer from a Company  :

  • that issues further shares end December 2011 at Rs 10,000 to an existing Private Equity (PE) Stakeholder Player 1   from 2008 which takes their total Equity Investment in the Company to just over Rs 22 crs & just 20 days later in January 2012 ,this PE Player 1 sells just @ 30.8% of  it’s Equity stake for Rs 110 crs ! to a new incoming PE Equity Player 2 at Rs 1,58,918 per share ~that’s 1500% & 15 times over latest unit share cost of Rs 10000 ! Thus it recovers 4 times it’s aggregate Investment in literally no time  & yet continues to hold a good stake in the Company which it has just sold for Rs 120 to get a huge Rs 554 crs    
  • that issues two liberal back to back Bonus issues of 1000:1  in 2012 & 2: 1 in 2013 from the Share Premium paid by incoming PE Player 2 in 2012 when it invested Rs 504 crs in the Company through Rs 394 crs new issue by the company & Rs 110 crs purchase from PE Player 1 as stated above  
  • where Promoters transfer shares in December 2017 at just Rs 22.14 per share just two months before February 2018 IPO at Rs 190 to PE Player 2 referring to a costing methodology of a Shareholder Purchase Agreement (SPA) of May 2014 when this PE Player 2 had invested further in May 2014 itself directly in a fresh issue by the Company at Rs 102.85 & on same day as per same SPA even picked up shares from Promoters at Rs 189.46.Even CCCP’s issued were converted at Rs 111.65 in November 2017,three months before the Rs 190 IPO.An SPA that spells out a costing method that works out to a much lower throwaway price of just Rs 22.14 per share three & a half years down the road in December 2017 will indeed raise an eyebrow.A lower price would imply growth parameters have not resulted as envisaged.Why  price the IPO at Rs 190 ? Should have been at Rs 22,I daresay !        

If Memory serves me right,the Financial Year 2011-12 was perhaps the last year before Income Tax & Company Act restrictions came into force on the issue of Shares at unjustified & obscene premiums….nevertheless

Such Modus Operandi was quite prevalent in Companies to infuse huge funds into Equity at bizarre premiums not in sync with Valuation which would facilitate insignificant Equity Dilution which otherwise would have impacted Promoter & Other existing  Shareholders Stakes.This invariably was followed up with bizarre Bonus Issues which while maintaining the Equity Stakes of all served largely to considerably lower per share holding cost of Shareholders that had infused such Equity Capital at obscene Premiums….daresay some indulged in this even for laundering or accepting white bribes

Two recent events drew me to  checking out Aster DM Healthcare @ Rs 127

1~ First when observed huge Market Deals being executed end of last month on June 26 & 27, 2019 at Rs 120 with Private Equity Shareholder True North Fund III A  ( earlier called India Value Fund (IVF) ) offloading it’s full 9.15% stake of 4.62 cr shares to a host of Big names that included Fidelity,Tata AIG Insurance A/c Wholelife Midcap Equity,HDFC Small Cap Fund,Ontario Pension & Steinberg

2 ~Was not impressed at this first quick look on performance & prospects & was letting go when a Stock Channel carried an interview of it’s Promoter & ED & Chairperson Mr Azad Moopen on July 12,2019.

Intrigued me to have a re-look as Mr Moopen stated verbatim these two threads  :

  • “we think  that this is a very low price for this stock “ ~ on Share Price of @ Rs 121/122 as on July 12,2019 & on bulk deal price of Rs 120 end June 2019 when PE Player True North Fund III exited ~ is not there some restriction on Company promoters and management making such views public on Share Price ?
  • “extremely useful in the initial phase” ” significant value addition to the company”  ” True North has been a great strength ” ” no way they could hold on beyond 9 to 10 years” ~ on Private Equity Player, True North Fund III A who had initiated a stake in 2008 in Aster & who exited last month in June 2019

I looked at the IPO Prospectus that announced Aster DM Healthcare’s February 2018  IPO eighteen months ago at Rs 190,a pricing that’s 33% higher than today’s Rs 127

While I appreciate Mr Moopen’s honourable healthcare venture in the last three decades what caught my attention,as it usually does,was the not so honourable Construction of the pre IPO Equity Capital

Here are some interesting extracts & derived data  on the constructions of holdings of PE Player 1  True North &  PE Player 2 Olympus Capital Asia Investments in Aster DM Healthcare Limited.The Post IPO Equity Issue stands at Rs 505.23 crs with  50,52,27,345 shares of FV Rs 10 . read more

Valuation!Valuation!Valuation!~Lovely Interactive Equity Workshop

Fabulous Participants & Fabulous Interaction at the Equity Workshop
Fabulous Participants & Fabulous Interaction at the Equity Workshop

It was quite an interactive Saturday at the Full House Fundamental Equity Value Vs Price Mumbai MasterClass on Compounding & Capital Protection

We began in earnest at 9.30 am right through to 8 pm~ so much debated from current unnerving market meltdowns & what should be mindsets & strategies in such times that suddenly overcast us in September ~ of Courage & Conviction & Cash ~ what if one is fully Invested ? should one average? should one exit ? why in panic one tends to always sell off the winners to realise whatever profit in hand & let’ losers drag? ….lot’s of questions that were addressed with a confidence culled from such experiences in the past thirty years

They came from all around ~ rookies to veterans ~ small to High Net Worth ~ from Broking Houses,J P Morgan,Accenture,Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank,Cap Gemini,Reliance,Moneycontrol etc

We covered Time Value,Volatility,Valuation & Asset Allocation with Illustrations of over 25 companies with few of them in detailed Valuation over Earnings & Assets & Challenges faced…went through a few Annual Reports & Interim Results & Exchange Notifications & Developments through News in the Media…checked price trends in the short term & even over last ten years to assess Risk & Reward  & Mispricing Opportunities

How the discipline of Valuation & Asset Allocation is your Weapon for Survival & Wealth Protection while growing it & to stay away from Noise & Insider trading & from those who know nothing or even more dangerous from those who don’t know they know nothing !

Valuation ! Valuation ! Valuation ! …how this leg of the equity table actually must be the most solid to hold the table together when the other leg of Liquidity  props up the remaining two legs of Sentiment & Momentum ~ Impact & Quantum of  FPI & DII Flows especially when they slow down or reverse

Put up Friday,September 28,2018 closing prices touchlines of over 200 scrips & even those separately in the Finance,Pharma & Realty Space showing the wealth destruction in them from their 52 week Highs….alarming yes,but is there value re-emerging in many? ~ Showcased a Core Scrips Valuation Grid too

In this continuing market meltdown across the board that has knocked off 50% & more in many that actually hold wealth creation potential & in many that simply were wealth destroyers in the making & should never have been married to ,who can one trust for relevant,reliable & timely information & unbiased & wise interpretation ? ~ Government,Exchanges & Regulatory authorities,Bankers, Auditors,Media,Brokers,Experts,Promoters & Fund Managers of PMS & MFs,Company Promoters & Management ? Who ? read more

Kwality destroyed 90 % from Rs 160 to Rs 21 in a year !~Blame the Brokers for going broke?

You were looking for 100% gains in a year…Poof ! now you see your Principal evaporating near 100% 

Kwality Limited’s Share Price has evaporated nearly 90 % from Rs 160 to Rs 21 in a year !

Blame the Brokers for going broke?  

Where was the Quality in the first place !...it was clearly basking in the sunshine of the surge in the share price of other Dairy Companies like Heritage & Parag Milk

I recollect how aghast I was when Kwality Ltd was recommended strongly by not one but several well known broking houses in 2016 & 2017 when it was being quoted in the Rs 110 to 140 range.Targets given by them were extremely tempting to succumb to ! ~ one gave Rs 263 ! ~ another projected Rs 200 !

I have often  mentioned this Company at my Fundamental Equity Value Vs Price Training Workshops when illustrating severe Corporate Governance Issues

A few months ago on March 27, 2018 Kwality had responded to the Exchanges on their concern of falling share price that there was no strategically significant development in the organisation or business & that they were committed to deliver sustainable value to its shareholders at all time…Wow!

The Problem perhaps was on news of Promoter Dhingra pledging shares…or the Company complaining to the exchanges that a broker was fradulently selling shares in the market .Earlier this month Kwality has also been put on the Additional Surveillance Measure (ASM) List.Their June 20,2018 Board Meeting to consider buyback and /or Bonus has been rescheduled to July 3,2018 as majority of the Directors could not make it

What’s going on here !

The Exchanges have just been notified of a downgrading of credit rating by Brickwork .It was just two months ago in April 2018 when Brickwork had given their last ratings  

Today Kwality  was  on lower circuit at Rs 21.15 with heavy volumes before opening up to hit upper circuit & closing a little lower at Rs 22.95 on BSE…relief rally or someone finds real value now !? …52 Week High was @ Rs 160 a year ago…that’s nearly 90% wealth destroyed  from a Market Cap of  @ Rs 3800 crs to just above Rs 500 crs !

This is not to condemn the Broking Houses or vilify them…after all the Money & Risk is all yours…no one held a Gun to your head to invest in Kwality !…so don’t blame the brokers for going broke in this ! even if they had any vested interest in recommending the Company for Investment

Just to warn you not to be carried away by momentum & sentiment in bull markets & follow anyone blindly read more

Endurance & Varroc IPOs ~ An Enduring Success Tale of Twins

Really happy for them ! ~ Anurang & Tarang Jain ~ Twins from our Sydenham College Mumbai Class of 83 & with who I’ve enjoyed long bridge sessions that often stretched into early morning while we were college mates

Related to the Bajaj Family, both were inspired & guided after post graduation to set up Auto Components Plants in Aurangabad to begin with  ~ Tarang set up Varroc Engineering in 1988 while Anurang founded the Endurance Technologies Group with it’s roots being an Aluminium Casting Plant in 1985.Their Footprint has spread globally with Endurance establishing Operations through Subsidiaries in Italy & Germany & three step down subsidiaries in Italy while Varroc has 36 plants in seven countries that include servicing North America too

Yesterday Varroc’s IPO,full offer for Sale of 20221730 Equity Shares of FV Rs 1, opened for subscription in the Rs 965-Rs 967 Band that implies at top end an IPO Size of Rs 1955 crs & a Valuation of  over Rs 13000 crs .It closed FY 18 with a Consolidated Top line of @ Rs 10400 crs

Earlier in October 2016 Anurang had already rung the success bell with Endurance’s IPO,an full offer for sale too at Rs 472 for an Equity Share of FV Rs 10, which was oversubscribed 43.7 times .Today Endurance quotes @ Rs 1250 giving a Market Cap of Rs 17700 crs.It closed FY 18 with a consolidated top line of Rs 6690 crs

Post Varroc’s IPO the Twins Companies should command a combined Market Cap of over Rs 30700 crs or @ US $ 4.5 billion on combined topline of over Rs 17000 crs or US $ 2.5 billion.Post IPO Promoters hold 82.5% of Endurance & 85% of Varroc giving the Jains a combined market wealth of over Rs 25500 crs or @ US $ 3.8 billion.Endurance is also a darling of the FPIs/MFs/DIIs .They collectively hold over 15% of the Equity leaving  under 2.5% as non institutional public float.This scenario should repeat itself also in Varroc with Anchor Investors already lapping up 5% though  it is interesting to see that neither Reliance MF nor HDFC MF are among the eight Anchor MFs…perhaps they’ll apply now or would love to know their reason for not participating  

Impressive Numbers already

Both Companies have a common Chairman,Mr Naresh Chandra

However,any Assessment from a shareholder’s viewpoint is always centered on ‘Value Vs Price’.There are always risks,largely operating,financial & legal,that companies face.

Varroc had negative Cash Flows in FY 18 & operates at lower EBITDA margins than Endurance.It also has @ Rs 1000 crs as Debt on it’s Balance Sheet at March 31,2018 of which Rs 636 crs is Long Term.Till FY 15 it was struggling with the bottomline.It’s also on the RBI watchlist as some of it’s export billings have yet to be realised over two years on …just a thought ~ 10 Million fresh issue of equity shares would have made the company debt free while increasing Equity Capital merely from Rs 13.48 crs to Rs 14.48 crs…would have saved the Company Rs 90 crs in Interest too…though issue size would have gone up to Rs 3000 crs… Tarang did come on TV yesterday to state the Debt/Equity is low at 0.3 & company does not need funds and can manage all expansion through internal accruals.He has a vision of a top line of Rs 20000 crs by 2020 & to move up Global ranking from current 6 in external lighting systems to 3 or 4…currently does Rs 7000 crs in this segment while No 5 globally does twice this read more

3 Seats Left ! ~ Sat Feb 17 2018 Mumbai Funda Eq Workshop

3 Seats Left ! ~ Sat Feb 17 2018 Mumbai Funda Eq Workshop

Reserve yours now =>  http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Fundamental MasterClass in Mumbai Stock Selection ~ Value Vs Price – 2018 ~ Markets Major & Mature ~ Sensex 36000 ~ Taking Stock

Saturday, February 17, 2018

At the previous Funda workshops in June & August 2017  we thread-bared Bombay Dyeing at Rs 70 to assess Value Vs Price in the price range of Rs 70 to Rs 85 & participants got excited to lap it up….in months it raced away to Rs 300 & now stands at Rs 250…of course Markets have been kind too…we had covered over 50 companies across sectors like Yuken,Rama Steel & Grauer on Valuation through Assets & Earnings & Situational Studies like M & A, Delisting & Turnarounds & the outcomes have been quite enjoyed by most participants as the feedback shows……. for what’s Academics & Theory without Action & Application

As Usual there’s already a good mix of participants from retail to HNWI & from FPIs, broking houses,PSUs  & MNC Banks….coming even from overseas & outstation for this Mumbai Workshop

Do try & make it….will be fun interacting fun-da-mentally with all of you on Re-positioning & Reinvestment Risks & on Corporate Governance & Controversies as we play the Corporate Tambola and exercise other Mind Gums on the Magic of Compounding & the holding of Convictions of Fundamental Selections through even steep market corrections especially if fully invested !

When I had announced this workshop just a fortnight ago the Sensex was at a record 36000+ and featured in the Workshop Title…In days since then following a global correction and arguably an uninspiring Union Budget that re-introduced Long Terms Capital Gains Tax the Sensex fell sharply below 34000 with many non large caps taking a hit of even 30 % with Vakrangee decimating over 50% from over Rs 500 to under Rs 200 on Corporate Governance issues

Even Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s Equity Portfolio has taken a US $ 11.2 billion hit ~ of course he’s not bothered ~ should you be when closer home we continue to be suckers in Company Price Run Ups where Quality is clearly suspect & where our PSU Banks continue to reel under the weight of NPAs with SBI announcing a huge Q 3 Loss,the first in many quarters, because of this ? ~ Capitalisation & Consolidation process is on  ~ are PSU Banks potential wealth creators going forward?

What Now ! ?

See You Sat

Cheers !