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21 IPO Listings in FY 2016 ~ A Mixed Bag Performance

Of the 21 Companies that got listed in FY 16 thus far,it’s been a mixed bag with 12 yet in the green,some handsomely from their Offer Price and  9 in the red,a few quite intensely

Quick Heal  listed today as Quick Kneel ! free falling over 20% from Offer Price of Rs 321 to close at Rs 254.Coffee Day,UFO Moviez & MEP Infra continue to languish well below their IPO Price

Shree Pushkar leads the Gainers at 70% over IPO Price & Dr Lal Pathlabs  that listed under two months ago too remains a strong gainer and even today is not too far below the High it recorded  as too is PNC Infratech.However Indigo which was a huge gainer just about now remains in the green after suffering  a stunning and quite shocking tumble recently on huge selloff .Teamlease has listed well last week while S H Kelkar is relatively quite steady

In the current ongoing Correction ,that many expect has yet to run it’s course as globally the indicators yet remain ominous, many of those below look interesting to investigate further

Nifty closed today,Thursday,February 18,2016, at 7192 and the Sensex at 23649

Prices have been rounded off below

Company IPO Price (Rs) Listing (Rs) High

(Rs)

Low

(Rs)

Closing 18/2/2016 (Rs) % from IPO Price
Shree Pushkar Chemicals 65 60 130 59 111 70
VRL Logistics 205 288 479 261 319 56
Dr Lal Pathlabs 550 717 908 697 853 55
Syngene International 250 295 436 295 382 53
Manpasand Beverages 320 291 526 286 457 43
PNC Infratech 378 381 558 346 515 36
Team Lease Services 850 860 1208 806 1122 32
S H Kelkar & Company 180 222 276 200 232 29
Alkem Labs 1050 1380 1589 1251 1308 25
Narayana Hrudaya 250 291 360 282 290 16
Indigo 765 856 1396 702 850 11
Navkar Corporation 155 152 221 151 160 3
Power Mech Projects 640 600 701 538 572 -11
Prabhat Dairy 115 115 168 93 99 -14
Precision Camshfafts 186 163 185 153 154 -17
Pennar Engineering 178 150 178 127 145 -19
Sadbhav Infra 103 111 112 66 82 -21
Quick Heal Technologies 321 305 330 246 254 -21
UFO Moviez 625 600 643 441 463 -26
Coffee Day Enterprises 328 313 318 221 225 -31
MEP Infrastructure 63 63 67 34 42 -33

Schadenfreude ~ Pleasure derived from the misfortune of another !

Came across Schadenfreude ~ Pleasure derived from the misfortune of another

….came across the use of this word while reading the Huge Mess of Hydel Power Projects in Arunachal Pradesh & the likes of business houses like Jindal Power,IL & FS & Lanco approaching National Hydel Power Corporation (NHPC) to take over their projects….NHPC is not too keen….Says M Rajshekhar,the author of this report “The reason for its reluctance goes beyond understandable schadenfreude. Its solitary project in Arunachal – Lower Subansiri – is stuck in a quagmire as well 

Rather Ironic now that many such Hydel Power Projects were actually taken away from NHPC between 2005 & 2009 and given to the likes of Reliance Energy,Jaiprakash Associates,DS Constructions,Jindal Power & KSK Energy….Most of them,if not all have turned into white elephants….and the privatisation actually led to many misdeeds like signing MOUs merely to raise monies and sell the MOUs itself !

Real woes experienced were the ” absence of roads and power lines. Not to mention local protests and extortion rackets, especially by local student unions. The state government too was a factor. While it wanted 26% equity in each project, it did not have the cash needed to pay for those shares.” says M Rajshekhar

And Now Presidents Rule is being imposed in Arunachal Pradesh !  

Of Course Political Patronage & Crony Capitalism have combined in this Privatisation endeavour that’s created this mess

Remember Reliance Power’s IPO in January 2008 at Rs 450 and the Prospectus announcing the roadmap to create nearly 30000 MW by 2016 & which included Hydel Projects in Arunachal Pradesh !

Spicejet Up & Indigo Down this morning !

Spicejet Up & Indigo Down this morning !

As expected both airlines have had a stellar record Q 3 FY 16 profit on the back of  favourable lower cost of Aviation Turbine Fuel that constitutes over 50% of Expenses

However Indigo declared their Q 3  post market on Thursday,January 21,2016 revealing Rs 657 crs PAT in the December 2015 Quarter.On Friday,January 22,2016 the Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Share Price crashed 20% before recovering slightly to close at Rs 968.75 on BSE

This Monday Morning,January 25,2016  it has sunk further by over 7% in the first 20 minutes of trading to drop below Rs 900 !

In contrast Spicejet declared a record  Rs 238 crs Q 3 FY 16 PAT postmarket hours on Friday,January 22,2016 and had held steadier @ Rs 70 levels after recovering from Rs 63 on the back of Indigo’s collapse

This morning Spicejet opened strong up 10%  @ Rs 77 in contrast to Indigo’s continued fall and touched Rs 80 before correcting to @ Rs 75/76 levels,yet up over 7% over Friday closing inside first half an hour of trading

Spicejet has made Rs 334 crs profit for the nine months at December 31,2015.Thus Full Year FY 16  EPS is likely to be @ Rs 10 on current Equity of @ Rs 600 crs (Face Value is Rs 10)

However the Auditors ,while not qualifying their report, have directed attention to the huge net liabilities over assets of Rs 882 crs ,being accumulated loss of Rs 2877 crs against shareholder funds of Rs 1995 crs that could materially impact company’s survival going forward

However,as Spicejet is on a recovery turnaround path,with Ajay Singh,it’s co founder in 2005 back at the helm & aided by lower & therefore favourable Aviation Turbine Fuel Prices,it should be able to meet operating and financial challenges

Market Cap of Indigo presently  this morning at 9.45 am is just under Rs 33000 crs at Rs 910 Share Price levels while SpiceJet’s Market Cap is just over Rs 4600 crs at Rs 76.70 levels

Sensex is up  over 210 points at 24650 levels

Crude Oil Price has shown some re-bounce to US $ 31 a barrel from lows of US $ 28 a few days ago

Aviation Sector will continue to thrive on lower ATF which will remain it’s underlying for Profitability levels

Will be interesting to see how Jet,Indigo & Spicejet play out in 2016 !

Go Air too is lining up for an IPO

Disclaimer : Have an interest in Spicejet

FLY INDIGO !~Lists high at Rs 850+~Why!?~Read My October 2015 IPO Note

IndiGo has had a brilliant listing this morning at 10 am opening at Rs 856 on BSE and racing to a high of Rs 898 and  now is at Rs 860 levels at 10.20 am.The IPO Price was Rs 765

Why this Premium on Listing !?

Go through my  IPO Note below to get some sense and wonder why Retail Investors missed out and why many  ridiculed the Pricing and the over liberal Dividends

October 29,2015

SCRIP SCAN

FLY INDIGO !

IPO of InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (IndiGo)

Book Building Price Band : Rs 700 to Rs 765

IPO refuelling the IndiGo Fleet for Operations & Expansion

IPO refuelling the IndiGo Fleet for Operations & Expansion

Profitable Operations in 7 of 9 Operating Years as a Low Cost Carrier & Bumper Profits on significantly lower Aviation Turbine Fuel Prices in ongoing FY 16 indicate an Earnings Multiple of  just 11 on IPO Top Range Pricing of Rs 765

+

Scale Potential being tapped with Huge Expansion with current 97 Airbus Fleet to be expanded to over 527 (Orders placed) over the next decade

 

Major Risk

 Listing Gains may not be available as :

Indigo drained of all Networth by Dividends to show a negative Networth on June 30,2015 ! +  Offer for Sale Component is huge at @ Rs 1750 crs (nearly 60% of Issue Size) and nearly all shareholders are offloading part of holding

Thus Promoter Mindset perceived to be Greedy by Retail  Investors who tend to invest more on emotion & sentiment than on pure reason and thus response has been tepid from them

“Why should we pay a high IPO Pricing of Rs 765 just for Potential & Promoter Pocket. Moreover Bumper Profits & Over the Top Liberal Dividend Distribution Practice & Policy may not sustain into the Future!”

IPO Opened on

Tuesday, Oct 27, 2015

IPO Closes Today

Thursday, Oct 29, 2015

IPO Type

100% Book Building

Equity Shares  Offered

Fresh shares ~ 16.6-18.2 Million shares (worth Rs 1272 Crs) Offer For Sale (OFS) ~  22.8 Million shares being part of holdings from nearly all existing shareholders

Face Value of Shares

Rs 10

Price Band

Rs 700 – Rs 765 Per Equity Share

Issue Size

Rs 3018 Crs @ Rs 765 per share

Listing on

BSE, NSE

Bid Lot

15 Equity shares and multiple of 15 Equity Shares

Global Book Running Lead Manager

Citigroup Global Markets India Private Limited,  J.P. Morgan India Private Limited,  Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited

Book Running Lead Managers

Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Limited

Object of the issue

1. Rs 1165 Crs towards retirement of certain outstanding lease liabilities and consequent acquisition of aircraft
2.Rs 33 Crs for purchase of ground support equipment for airline operations; and
3. General corporate purposes
4. To receive the benefits of listing of the Equity Shares on the Stock Exchange

QIB’s

50% of Net Issue Rs 1512 Crs (including Anchor) at upper band

NIB’s

15% of Net Issue Rs 454 Crs at upper band

Retail (upto Rs 200000)

35% of Net Issue Rs 1059 Crs at upper band

  

OVERVIEW

InterGlobe Aviation is the company  that owns & operates the Low Cost Carrier IndiGo Airlines. The airlines commenced operations in August 2006 and is now one of the largest players in the domestic airline space with the largest market share that’s fast closing in on 40%. It ranked seventh in terms of largest low-cost carrier globally in seat capacity in 2014, according to CAPA Centre for Aviation . At the end of August 2015, the airline had a fleet of 97 aircraft.

It has an order book of 180 A320 neo (new engine option) aircraft and expects to take delivery of 15 additional aircraft, including nine A320 neos by March 31, 2016. According to Airbus, A320 neo aircraft are expected to consume up to 15% less fuel than current generation A320 aircraft without shark-lets, which will further reduce fuel consumption per flight.

Indigo has also recently placed an order for 250 new Airbus aircrafts in 2015 which  are scheduled for delivery between 2018 to 2026. read more

Indigo Listing this morning ! ~ Grey Market indicates premium listing

 

Indigo Spoofed Pre Opening Quotes on BSE and NSE

Indigo Listing this morning ! ~ Grey Market Premium of Rs 58 last evening indicates premium listing over IPO Price of Rs 765….however it may trade even below IPO Pricing during the day

Qatar Airways making noises to buy into Indigo on listing augurs well

Spicejet has already rallied over Rs 51 on the back of Indigo Buoyancy

Trading should commence at 10 am in Indigo

Till then be happy with spoofed pricing pre opening on both BSE and NSE as above with Buyers at Rs 1338.75  and sellers at Rs 573.75 on BSE and Rs 590 on NSE

Spoofing is a crime in USA as one is not allowed to input orders that one has no intent on executing

Don’t tell me these prices are only for testing !

Had prepared a long note on Indigo IPO and suggested it looks good though risk remains on no gains on listing….will put this note up shortly

 

10 am

What a listing ! at Rs 866 and racing away now in seconds to Rs 880+ ! 15% up from IPO Price of Rs 765

Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

Seems to get bigger & better every time !

Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

Sunday, August 16th, 2015

Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

@ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  ! read more

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