Looooooooong Full House Saturday Equity Mumbai Workshop Sept 14 2019

It was a looooooooong,should have held it over two days,  Full House Equity Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,September 14,2019 with a whole spectrum of smart participants that made for really invigorating interaction ~they came from Mumbai,Gurgaon & Pune ~ from young upwardly mobile grads & post grads from top ranked Management Institutes in India,UK (London) & USA(Harvard) to ‘ well tuned in’ professionals from the IT ,Consultancy,Broking,Corporate & Banking Sectors to veteran high networth investors . We commenced at 9.30 am & concluded well beyond 7.30 pm ~ 🙂 should have arranged dinner too

Thank you Guys !

Here are a few candid clicks from the Workshop :

The Coverage was expansive & the Interaction from Participants very intelligent & which opened out many threads that we examined with anecdotal support . When analysing a company ,they asked what is “Non Negotiable” &  “How to have Foresight as on Hindsight we are always right”

Really a lot was covered ,some of which is below  :

  • Macros through :
  1. Examining the Equity Table’s four legs of Valuation,Liquidity,Momentum & Sentiment & the Impact of FPI Flows ~ when Valuation,which should be the strongest leg,sometimes takes a back seat as Liquidity or even a lack of it drives the momentum & sentiment
  2.  Not getting Seduced by any Bounce at  Friday closing Sensex 37385 & Nifty 11076 Levels as Caution is strongly indicated by domestic & overseas economy & geo-political headwinds
  3. Negative Interest Rates Era vs the Magic of Compounding in such meltdowns
  4. Sensex & Earnings & Market Cap & low GDP growth Dynamics on Levels & Valuations ~ Past,Present & Forward & why downside risk remains wide open while the upside appears capped for now ~ we referred to 1991/92 abnormally high Sensex PE pre Harshad Mehta Scam exposure & the High PE in 2000 with Ketan Parekh was in action & where the markets were clearing running ahead of fundamentals by huge margins~ we referred to the Sensex PE of just 6 in the late 1980s when VP Singh was the PM 1988~ we covered Mkt Cap/GDP Highs pre Lehman collapse in 2007/8 & the levels now
  5. Fx Reserves  & Exchange Rate Risk &  the Risk of increasing Sovereign Debt as planned by Government ~ How our Rupee has always had a South trajectory,except when it soared from Rs 49 to the US $ to Rs 39 to the US $ creating havoc especially in the Diamond Sector
  6. Why Inversely co-related Gold & US $ are moving up together instead
  7. Turm-Oil & Impact on Fiscal Deficit & Rupee  like last happened in 2007/8( On Saturday at the workshop we were not yet clued in to the Drone Attack on the Oil Refinery in Saudi Arabia that saw Oil Prices dangerously soar 20% in spot) ~ India is hugely dependent on Oil Imports
  8. Interest & Inflation rates
  9. Trump ~ Not sure if he’s a macro or micro factor !
  • Micros through many companies  & sector dynamics covering :
  1. Checklist on how to Smartly & Effectively & thus Quickly Read a voluminous Annual Report
  2. Our Five Steps for Evaluating a Company for Investment
  3. Impact on the Financial Statements in Scenarios like Buy Back,Rights Issues,Fictitious Sales,RBI issuing a divergence on Provisioning for NPAs,non linear jump in Sales Realisations,5 G Spectrum Fees,Permanent Diminution in Investments,Monetising Assets & Depreciation of the Rupee
  4. Quick Brief on Absolute & Relative Valuation & how to prepare a quick Valuation Grid from the Annual Report, Market Price Trends & Shareholding
  5. Why Liquidity more than Profitability is the ‘Circle of Life’  for a Company as viewed through the lens of the Cash Flow Statement dervived from the Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss Ac & that distinguishes operating,financing & investing flows
  6. Corporate Governance Issues on inadequate Disclosure or Non Disclosure, Incorrect & questionable Accounting Treatment & Lack of Transparency &  irresponsible (deliberate?)  Management utterances  that give a leg to Insider Trading & huge Profits through  Derivatives Play
  7. Courage & Conviction Promoter or Institutional recent Buying in Vodafone,Yes Bank,I B Real Estate & Tata Motors & seeing more wealth destruction since in these   
  8. Basis for Disclaimer of Opinion by the Auditor of Reliance Infrastructure & what holds out some hope
  9. Intangibles,Investments & Impairments
  10. Reliance Industries’s Enterprise Value,Revenue Segments Potential,Spin offs of the Jio Telecom Infra into two trusts, Aramco’s 20% stake being negotiated in the Refining,Petroleum Retailing & Petrochemicals Business that should lead to further demerger & reviving & scaling the Gas Exploration Operations
  11. How Defaults & Corporate Governance Issues decimated into or near oblivion Eros,Cox & Kings,ManPasand,Tree House Education,Satyam,Jet Airways,Kingfisher & Talwalkars & is there any hope of operational & share price recovery with Asset values holding out some hope in a few ~ How Clearly the Statutory Auditors & Credit Rating Agencies were negligent or intentionally turned a blind eye in many cases
  12. Huge Potential Outlay of the ‘Nal sey Jal’ Scheme of the Government & the new Jal Shakti Ministry focus that should benefit many companies if the implementation & execution is as noteworthy as the intent
  13. How IndAs 115 continues to affect Bombay Dyeing
  14. How Exchanges continue to accept outright untrue or tepid clarifications from Companies
  15. Reference to Investment Gurus & Living Legends Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch Approaches & Success
  16.  Coverage of a few sectors like Defence, Hydrocarbons,Broking,Telecom,Real Estate,NBFCs,Banks & Automobiles & Disruption that’s in play in many
  17. Consolidation & Capitalisation of PSU Banks & the controversial Acquisition of Laxmi Vilas Bank by I B Housing Finance pending RBI approval
  18. Common Investor Mistakes

The next Equity Workshop is scheduled  pre-Diwali for Saturday ,October 19,2019 & will be announced soon on www.jsalphaa.com & social media

Touched by some warm & constructive feedback from participants :

  • thanks for a lovely interactive session…”
  • “enjoyed your session yday”
  • “it was great to meet again & reskill to be better prepared for opportunities which would arise”
  • “Thanks for being the Enabler,the last few days have been very encouraging”
  • “Cover the Scenarios Exercise more with Investor focus than just on Accounting Impact & take in a few Annual Reports before Lunch”  

😆 & I swear I did not pay for these ones !

  • ” You are very good at what you do,comes naturally to you,with a vastness of the subject to cover you did justice to cover the best you could with your insights and experience of all the treasures of knowledge,you are an encyclopedia of the subject with case studies,which is the best way of teaching, sharing & learning according to me,the various industries that you know of,the processes & the products,the promoters & the pitfalls,the auditors & the audited,you can understand in the readings the stated & the unstated,intention & intended,you truly personify_the integration of intellect with instinct_”   
  • “Whoever missed this one, missed learning a radical way to look at balance sheets. Very practically in a few minutes you can strip away the padding and bullshit that promoters hide their sins behind. If the stock market’s motto or rather rider has always been caveat emptor or buyer beware, Gaurav’s lessons in Analysis would ensure that a “fool and his money are not soon parted” for when emotions like fear and greed coupled with ignorance seize us even the wisest are prone to behave like fools. Especially the wisest!”
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    Saturday Fundamental Equity Workshop ~ Tambola & Time just Flew!

    Workshop Photos

    It was a wonderful Saturday for all of us ~ a Full House ~Time just Flew!

    The Mumbai Equity Workshop on Wealth Destroyers having the Potential to bounce back kicked off at 9.30 am stretched into 7 pm…began with a Tambola or Housie where they had to guess the Wealth Destroying company on the questions posed & strike off the name if it’s there on their Ticket…In fact each pulled out a question & posed it for all…Prizes for Jaldi 3 & Two Full Houses & a question Bank on 25 companies…like “Chor ! Chor!” & they got it ! ~ Kingfisher Airlines ! or Ethopian Counsel yet destroyed his Company  &  promptly the answer shot back “Karuturi”! Chocolates were given for each correct answer too while I spoke a minute or two on each company & how it was destroyed & whether it can revive

    Covered Valuation,Sentiment,Momentum & Liquidity…the power of Compounding for Wealth Creation…FPI Flows Impact…Impact of Global & Domestic Economic & Geo-Political Head & Tail winds…the impact of three leading rates~inflation,interest & exchange….how to protect capital while growing it through the discipline of asset allocation & when to adopt tactical strategies & staying true to ones’ risk profile

    …& if convinced on Equity & India…showed them why they should be…then should you go for passive index investing through Mutual Funds Schemes & be content with CAGRs of 10% to 15% over the years or should you go directly into Equity for specific selections for potential of higher gains…& why the latter should be your strategy…& why Fundamental rather than Technical Approach…& not to mistake luck for skills in such bullish markets

    Tea & Coffee & a variety of Cold Beverages & Biscuits & Wafers were served through the day & we had to switch from a Copper Chimney Lunch Buffet arranged to a Soup,Salads,Sandwich & Desserts Buffet at Pizza By the Bay as the former’s kitchen had grappled with a fire the previous day & was closed on Saturday

    Must Thank the Full House with Participants coming in specially from Dubai,Malaysia,Delhi,Cochin & Ichikaranji too…there were a few repeats from earlier workshops in Bangalore & Mumbai ~ take that as a thumbs up!…gratifying that within three to four days days of announcing this workshop end May 2017,it got full…surely Sensex at 31000+ and climbing has something to do with this ! 🙂 read more

    Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

    Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

    🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

    WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

    As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

    Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

    “Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

    “Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

     & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

    Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

    Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

    gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

    🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

    Cheers !

    Nah ! for Nakoda 46 paise ~ warning was issued three years ago

    On December 6,2013 following on a blog reader Dinesh Sampat’s request I had posted the warning below with elaborate reasoning:

    Nah ! or Wah ! for Nakoda Ltd at Rs 10.50!? ~ This is for you Dinesh Sampat 🙂

    Posted on

    This Tuesday morning the Times of India edition carried a brief coverage of CBI arresting the Promoters of Nakoda for forging papers and manipulating accounts to avail of Bank Loans of over Rs 2000 crs which were siphoned off

    Here’s the coverage & here’s BSE asking for clarification from the company  on the same

    The Share Price is 46 paise on BSE …yes it’s still quoted

     

    Planning a Training Workshop that has a classic Theme for such low priced Wealth Destroyers & how & when to spot a turnaround & take the risk,if indicated  ….should announce it shortly

    Do not get seduced by low below par quotes & a mindset as “what could go wrong…the down side is limited !”….you’ve already been foolish in Global Trust Bank  (vapourised) & Kingfisher Airlines(suspended but as good as vapourised) just to mention a few black sheep

     

    Equity ~Life Changers or Life Maimers ?

    Equity ~Life Changers or Life Maimers ?

    This Thought was inspired by a Whatsapp Forward received this morning titled Power of Equity .It listed many Life Changing Wealth Creators that grew many fold from just Rs 10000 invested in each  & carried a concluding Message in Capitals ” INVEST WISELY WITH LOTS OF PATIENCE “

    This was the List & I’m assuming the Years & CAGR Maths is correct with Dividends not being considered :

    1. Eicher Motors-1992 => Rs 80 lakhs
    2. Asian Paints-1986 => Rs 90 lakhs
    3. HDFC -1990 => Rs One Crore
    4. Brittania – 1985 => Rs 1.06 crs
    5. MRF – 1985 => Rs 1.10 crs
    6. BOSCH -1985 => Rs 1.20 crs
    7. Amara Raja -1991 => Rs 1.25 crs
    8. Shree Cement -1990 => Rs 2.90 crs
    9. Infosys – 1993 => Rs 3 crs
    10. Dr Reddys -1986 => Rs 10 crs
    11. WIPRO -1981 => Rs 400 crs

    Cannot Argue with this Message for I’ve seen three of my Scrips,in even relatively quick time inside five years of investment too becoming over 100 Baggers ~Matrix Labs( early Millenium & now delisted as sold to Mylan),Mercator(early Millenium) & WIPRO ( from 1997 to  early 2001)

    It is rare for most investors to live the Conviction & Temperament to hold for long & ride the Huge Life Changing Gains.Imagine if more than Rs 10000 had been invested in each of the above,especially WIPRO!

    However my Thought is what about Wrong Convictions on the High Fliers that became Wealth Destroyers &  Life Maimers !

    Here are a few of them ,most yet listed & struggling to revive & how much worth would your Rs 10000 invested in each of them be now ….most are Horror Stories of the past decade or a little more…sure you can contribute more…My Horror Stories  have been the Damania Group’s Damania Capital Markets to mention one.Bad Judgement Call that Cost!It was compulsory delisted in July 2004.

    ~Suzlon -2005=>Rs 842  &  2008=>Rs 348 ! => 92% to 97% wiped out after considering 10:2 Split in January 2008 when it reached an all time high of Rs 2300 before split.Current Price Rs 16.Promoter Tulsi Tanti is yet on board though Dilip Shanghvi of Sun Pharma Group has acquired a major stake in it @ Rs 18 in February 2015.Mandatory Open Offer at Rs 18 to other Shareholders in January 2016 met with no success.The Share Price had raced to Rs 30 from where it has halved & is below the Open Offer & Stake Price of Rs 18.Shareholders hold out Hope of Revival back to Glory Days in the years ahead under Dilip Shanghavi.So far it’s been a muted share price trading range in recent months.

    ~Unitech-2006 => Rs 505 => 95% wiped out after adjusting for 12:1 Bonus & 10:2 Split in June 2006 & 1:1 Bonus in Aug 2007.Reached a high of Rs 14800 in 2006 before Bonus & split .Current Price under Rs 6

    ~Kingfisher Airlines-2006/7 => 0 ! => 100% wiped out & scrip suspended for trading from 2012/2013 & restricted trading from June 2015 ~ reached a High of Rs 335 in 2007 read more

    Kingfisher Airlines NPA~Exposes Political & PSU Banks Nexus to Lend against Brand!

    Kingfisher Airlines NPA~Exposes Political & PSU Banks Nexus to Lend against Brand

    It was clear to me right in 2009 itself of the danger of lending against the Kingfisher Airlines Brand 

    This was my Warning on July 23,2009 

    Borrowing against Brands !…Interesting,but Risky area opening out !

    Thursday, July 23rd, 2009

    Multiple Posts on my views on the KFA Debacle &  Vijay Mallya have been categorised above under Kingfisher Airlines ~Machiavellian Mallyas

    KFA was my case study at several Seminars & Workshops where I warned  that it was on it’s way to becoming like Global Trust Bank that vapourised and the over 2 lakh shareholders should exit immediately and potential aggressive investors should not get seduced to buy into it !

    Who will now bell the Cat and reveal why the PSU Banks actually lend to KFA,especially under the intangible Brand which Grant Thornton had valued at ,I believe US $ 750 m! ….. the Banks were unable to monetise this to recover their dues !….no surprise here at all !….makes to recall how E & Y had valued in just One Day(Company Law Board had pulled them up for this) the Properties at a value in the Satyam-Maytas Deal to fill the hole in Satyam Balance Sheet ! ….in fact the Banks even converted Part Loan to Equity at Rs 64 !  

    Clearly Vijay Mallya’s Proximity to Political Leaders had a hand when the Loans were given & even till date this Proximity is the reason for his continuing arrogance and brazenness ! …. his Rajya Sabha MP Candidature from Karnataka as an Independent was supported by a few Political Parties just to defeat the Nominee of another !

    I can only surmise that the Glitterrati,especially those who celebrated with him his 60th Birthday in Granduer, & continue to fawn over him and defend him and his son ad nauseum in columns and  on debate panels on TV News Shows have been and/or continue to be beneficiaries of his largesse with public funds,if i daresay ! ~ Nothing is Free !

    Shame !!! ~on these 17 Banks & the many years it has taken them to declare KFA & Mallya as a wilful defaulter  & seek his arrest….investigate who in the Banks was responsible to lend in the first place !…the truth will be revealed then as to why they lend & who made them !

    Shame !!! ~ on those defending Vijay Mallya…a lawyer on a panel says to follow due process of law….another says he will pay !….if the due process of law was followed  in time then Vijay Mallya would have been history by now !….the irony is that the victims,the KFA Employees ( a captain on a panel voiced this) want him free so he’s able to pay them their dues….for if he goes behind bars so goes their hopes!….a stock market scamster comes to mind who was arrested & convicted as he owed the  banks heavily but has been on bail  on an Apex Court Appeal now pending for years and has been able to repay the Banks despite his accounts being frozen ! ~ tacit!? …think about it !….manipulated & rigged stocks & got into trouble….then manipulated & rigged stocks again to repay !….the World is round indeed ! read more