Equity Wealth Management Mentoring at NSE ~ A Long but Absorbing Saturday

NSE Equity Mentoring Workshop
NSE Equity Mentoring Workshop

It was a long but absorbing Mentoring Saturday,October 8,2016 at the NSE BKC Boardroom with the graduates of the Exchange’s 11 month long Wealth Management Program…Fundamental Equity Sessions ,with the latest stats too as of Friday,October 7,2016 & real time online support too covering Market Dynamics,Macros & Micros,Oil,Gold,Leading Rates :Inflation,Interest & Exchange,Union Budget & Economic Reforms,Global Headwinds,FPIs,Valuation,Buffett & Lynch,Beta,WACC…..loads of Company Illustrations….right from 9.30 am straight past 8 pm (5.30 pm was scheduled close) with Tea/Coffee Twice served ongoing & only a break for lunch nearing 2 pm

Interesting to see middle age participants with one even close to 50….all with interesting backgrounds….told them Age is just a Number….and they’ve asked for more ! :-)…two of them who interacted well with me were rewarded too…the participants themselves decided who deserved this

Proposed to NSE already earlier to have a Practical Three to Six Months Fundamental Equity Certification Course conceptualised and conducted by me on weekends to translate Theory to Application & Academics to Action…This Proposed Course should considerably enhance the practical knowledge & therefore confidence & conviction levels of those taking it by leading to their increased marketability to potential employers & clients and even better proprietary performance.

Last Month in Bangalore did a successful one day one open to all….should see such in Mumbai and other places too in the coming months and early in 2017

Happy Dassera to all

Cheers

What A Shame!~LIC bails out Government with US $ 1.2 b in IOC Disinvestment

Just a few days ago I had blogged that the IOC Disnvestment on Monday will be just a formality….But Monday’s Global Stocks Chinese Contagion Capitulation saw a very very poor response to the IOC  Disinvestment

It’s a real shame that the Government yet again  had to direct/order LIC to bail it out yet again…it would have been a wise idea to defer the issue rather than order LIC to invest in 86% of  Issue of Rs 9379 crs  bat Floor Price of Rs 387 !…. shoots up  LIC holding in IOC by a whopping 8.59% from 2.52% to 11.11%….it’s another issue that IOC is past Rs 400 today on signing a refinery deal with Nepal

This then sadly was not a real disnvestment just as it was not for a similar 10% last year too when Oil India & ONGC were ordered to pick up 5% each at Rs 220 .,,,just another continuing story of government selling from one PSU to another !

Its no wonder LIC does not want to go public ! and neither is the Government inclined to make it public !

Raises Huge Corporate Governance Issues on Investment Decision Making,Accountability and Tranparency

It’s happening for decades now….UTI was first the Big Market Daddy in the 1970’s to 1990’s before India opened out to FIIs and Other Mutual Funds that saw UTI losing it’s war of words with SEBI to be brought under it’s regulations….in the late 1980’s the UTI Chairman then had opened out to me in a candid interview on UTI’s Investment & Disinvestment Decisions Process,sometimes buying a company’s shares through one broker and selling the same company’s share on the same day through another !, and Competition emerging from other Mutual Funds sponsored by PSU Banks that were allowed to be set up .It was to be carried in a leading Magazine…it was explosive and so I send him the transcript to confirm he was not being misquoted….Phew! he panicked and  asked me not to carry the Interview….had told him it would be the Editor’s call….it was not carried finally !

LIC  yet stays out of SEBI regulation though its the Biggest Shareholder in Indian Equities and functions like a Government Proxy

Who’s to Question LIC !…or for that matter the Government ?…and the Disinvestment Secretary boasts of how with this Disinvestment it’s a been the best first half of the year in the last many years for Disinvestment Proceeds !

It’s the Cash Cow for the Government to lead and order the flow wherever it conveniently wants Investments !

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Typical ~ Equity Investors are piling on at these Highs ~ they need to be cautious

Sensex has crossed a record 26000 & Nifty is now ahead of 7700

Typical ~ Equity Investors are piling on at these Highs  ~ they need to be cautious ~ especially those who are returning or initiating fresh exposure now not having done so in 2013 or earlier in 2014 ~ advisable to await the post budget scenario as there is a high probability that once euphoria abates the Sensex and Bellwether Scrips may correct 10% or more…the real danger though are the small caps and midcaps that have run up crazy,some over 100% in months…they may correct 25% to 50%…yes that high !  

At June 30,2014 ,Equity mutual funds saw record absolute rise in average AUM in the quarter, up by Rs 33000 crore or 16% to Rs 2,36,000 crore led by mark to market gains and inflows. The equity funds’ contribution to the gains in the industry assets was the highest among all categories

While this is to be expected on the back of the resounding BJP Victory and Narendra Modi assuming Prime Ministership there needs to some caution that should be exercised especially by those seeking instant profits and gratification as Sensex has crossed 26000 levels and seems to be running a little ahead of fundamentals for the near term on the back of  BJP & Narendra Modi sweeping the elections,FII Net Inflows exceeding US $ 8 Billion in 2014 till date and Great Expectations from the Budget in particular and the Government in general going forward

Great Expectations from the Union Budget this Thursday are countered by great challenges that continue to confront us on the economic and geo political front…Iraq & Ukraine Tension can escalate further causing Oil Price to surge even further past US 120/barrel and putting pressure on the Rupee…though a lot of the pressure has been taken off by record FII Net Inflows into India this year into both Debt & Equity

The Budget Backdrop is :

High ~ Inflation,Deficits & Debts

Low ~ Economic Growth with Manufacturing sector that needs urgent revival

45% + of the Projected FY 15 Fiscal Deficit has been reached in the first two months April & May  of FY 14 itself 

There is little room to lower Interest Rates immediately….so manufacturing thrust can be provided through diluting the Land Acquisition Act and opening out or increasing FDI cap in many sectors

It is commonly expected that the Budget will be kind to the Infrastructure,Housing Finance,Power & Banking Sector….a major beneficiary of this should also be the Cement Sector

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Financial Technologies @ Rs 144 ~ A Story of Guts and Glory now Guttered !

Financial Technologies (FTIL)  @ Rs 144 (FV Rs 2)~ A Story of Guts and Glory now Guttered ! ?….though Jignesh Shah ,the Founder Chairman and MD of the FTIL Group (MCX,NSEL and others)states this in his message in the FY 13 Annual Report “….these are tough times the Company is facing and Financial Technologies is making all efforts to come out of such situation” 

I don’t own any shares of the FTIL Group but I do have some very good friends and associates who work for it and are extremely wise and forward thinking and manage the FTKMC admirably and who graciously invited me for the MCX Equity Exchange Launch at Hotel Trident where our FM,Mr Chidambaram in his inaugural speech lamented Insider Trading and Speculation but amusingly went on to sound the gong for the Exchange’s first and symbolic Future trade !

Media has justifiably gone to town on the NSEL and FTIL Group Plight ~Realms can be written on this and am sure a Best Seller Book too will finally be published to reveal what went wrong ! and was it a deliberate sinster plan right at the outset ! ~ and what is the extent of Political patronage at the highest level that’s keeping the Group alive and kicking till now !

For Now this is all that I’m going to say…….

From Rs 1224 on November 13,2012 last year the Share price of FTIL sank to Rs 102 on August 30,2013 and had recovered since then to Rs 160 levels

However today the Share Price intraday dropped over 10% to Rs 140 levels as yesterday on the eve of the AGM the Auditors Deloitte Haskins & Sells has announced that their report of May 30,2013 on the standalone and consolidated results of FTIL results as on March 31,2013 should no longer be relied on ! 

Remember the Satyam fiasco and how the Auditors Pricewater House had released a similar note warning that the last 39 quarters of their audited results should not be relied on ! ~ this went all the way back from 2009 to 2001 !

FTIL’s EPS for FY 13 was Rs 70 ~ It’s June Q 1 FY 14 shows Rs 17 ~ but Deloitte now tells us not to rely on their report !

FTIL owns nearly 100% of the troubled National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL) which is embroiled in a Rs 5600 crs payment crisis ~ there is more than meets the eye in NSEL ~ FTIL has already lend Rs 173 crs to NSEL to fund payouts to smaller investors ~How in Hell did this hole in NSEL go undetected for so long !? ~ the answer is suspected to lie in that there was hardly any internal control and deliberately so ~ there was no eternal regulation worth mentioning~ the Operators or Borrowers,the Exchange Administration,the Directors and FTIL as the near 100% Owner  were all seemingly colluding parties ~thousands of crores of borrowed monies were created for the benefit of just a chosen few ,and some were director related parties,through scheming financial structured products,supposedly backed by physical comfort of commodities in warehouses ~ these products were aggressively hawked to high networth investors by a network of brokers,including leading names like Motilal Oswal,Anand Rathi and India Infoline, for a few additional interest points and rolling commission or brokerage ! ~ Most of these funds  are suspected to be diverted away from the exchange

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Emkay Global @ Rs 17 in trouble as NSE rejects application to annul trades of October 5 2012

Emkay Global @ Rs 17 in trouble as NSE rejects application to annul trades of October 5 2012

On October 5,2012 Emkay Global suffered a Loss of Rs 51 crs on squaring up trades that were executed from a Templeton order  punched in by a dealer erroneously in  more quantum than it should have been ~ the order was of a value of Rs 17 lakhs but the dealer instead punched in 17 lakhs nos  and the order value shot to nearly a Rs 1000 crs ! of which nearly Rs 700 crs was executed before the mistake was discovered and thus had to be squared off

NSE after an extensive investigation just rejected Emkay’s application to cancel all the relevant Trades of October 5,2012 early morning as there was material error in punching

Emkay has also send a notice to the BSE as below

“We are in receipt of NSE letter dated April 30, 2013 on May 01, 2013 late in the evening regarding the decision of the Relevant Authority of NSE on the application made by us for the annulment of the error trade of October 5, 2012. The Relevant Authority of NSE has denied our application for annulment of trades arising out of a clearly erroneous entry of sale order on October 05, 2012. The Company is considering various legal course of action including challenging the decision in exercise of its statutory right to appeal.”.’

Emkay is quoted at Rs 17 (FV Rs 10) giving a market cap of Rs 41 crs ~ Promoters hold 73.24%

In March/April 2006 it came out with a Rs 75 crs IPO offerring 62.50 lakhs shares in the price bad of Rs 100 to Rs 120 ~ and the following year 2007/8 was their best with Profit of Rs 23.50 crs ~ since then the next four Financial Years  dragged down a loss in 2008/9 followed by Rs 8 crs each profit in the following years and again drifted to a marginal loss in FY 11/12

Current Book Value is Rs 50+ with Networth at Rs 134 crs of which Equity is Rs 24+ crs

Clearly Rs 51 crs loss will be a huge setback to Emkay ~ destabilising their operations big time in very competitive times ~ Emkay will surely appeal

Several years ago the Emkay Promoters had sought a meeting with me as one of their Broking Clients and my Advisory one had made a 600% + gains on his Portfolio inside a year and they wanted to meet with the guy whose advice did this ! ~ they had only recently set up a Research Team taking several analysts from a leading stock market media  house  and they wanted to tie up with me  ~ did not work out as I must have quoted too high I suppose !

…and it’s sad luck that Emkay did this deal on NSE and not BSE for BSE may just have helped them out given it’s past track record for doing so when during Broker Dominated Boards, EDs and Presidents have had to resign for malpractices ~ like opening the Exchange in the middle of the night to insert trades ! or else some brokers would have gone bankrupt on their positions !

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Getting Requests from all over India for Fundamental Training in Equity Portfolio Structuring and Stock Selection…need your support to make it happen soon !

Pune,Lucknow,Bangalore,Mangalore,Delhi,Rajkot,Nadiad,Chandigarh,Ludhiana……have been receiving requests from interested people from all these cities and more for Practical One Day and Two Days Equity Portfolio Structuring and Stock Selection Training Workshops in these cities

Most are optimistic about 2013 and beyond for our Stock Markets and the Indian Economy going forward and want to be positioned to make Monies from this Optimism   

To make this happen NOW , as it would be ideal at the beginning of 2013 to position your Equity Portfolio well, would like all your support ~ I shall personally conduct the Workshop along with my Training Team 

If  you can muster up  at least 15  interested people your town or city to attend the workshop ,we shall have it arranged immediately at a good venue in your city ~ you can guide us too for this and even be our local coordinator ~ of course you will be compensated  with free participation and a coordinating Fee too ! 

Some Guiding Criteria :

Minimum Number of Participants :15  ~ Of course 50 and more would be great 🙂

Fees per Participant : Rs 4500 for a one day workshop and Rs 7500 for a Two Day Workshop.Fees are inclusive of  all Taxes,Tea, Lunch and Kit ~ we can bring this down to Rs 3500 for one day and Rs 6000 for two days if you can assure a minimum of 30 participants

Ideal Days to hold Workshop : Saturday and Sunday as working people too can attend  ~ however even weekdays are fine

Who should Attend : Such an intensive workshop will be ideal for all who themselves invest or want to in Indian Stocks or who advise or want to advise others to do so ~would be a practical experience for Retail and High Networth Investors,IFAs of Mutual Funds, Brokers ,Sub Brokers and their associates and clients and students at any level studying Commerce,Finance,Management and Capital Markets

What will the  One Day Workshop Cover among many other facets :  

  • Global & Indian Macro & Micro Investment Environment & Trends
  • Market Dynamics ~ FII Impact & Where is the Sensex heading in 2013 and why ~ was on track last year in Jan 2012 at 15500 levels when predicted  a 2012 close @18750 …it closed higher
  • Stock Experts & Stock Anchors on TV & Brokers ~ Bane or a Boon !? ~ Sources to Trust
  • Your Risk Profiling
  • Investing  & Trading Approach & Strategy for the Short Term  & Long Term
  • Protection of  Equity Wealth while Growing It ~ Asset Allocation ~Portfolio Review and Rebalancing,Hedging
  • Investor Mistakes that you can and should Avoid Making
  • Key Data to Note  when Reading the Annual Report of the Company for an Investment Perspective
  • How to Assess & Select Stocks to Buy,Hold or Sell ~ on Sentiment,Momentum,Valuation and Liquidity
  • Positioning your Equity Portfolio with the Right Selection of Stocks that suit your Risk Profile

What will the Two Day Workshop Cover among many other facets :  

  • All that is covered in the One Day Workshop as above
  • Interpretation of the Union Budget
  • Logical Thinking Game Play
  • IPO Analysis ~ A Case Study
  • When to Use Derivatives to your Advantage to leverage on great Returns
  • Aiming for Gold as an Investment ~ many ways to go about this
  • Investor Gurus & their Approach ~ Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch
  • Basics of  Valuation ~ Relative,Absolute and Contemporary
  • Integrity & Insider Trading

You can suggest Stocks that you wish to cover too in the Workshop as well as  decide and mix and match the coverage you want in a one day workshop  from that outlined above in both one day and two day workshops

Those who interact well in the workshop will be pleasantly surprised with Interesting Prizes ! 

PowerPoint Presentations,Quiz,Case Studies,Game Play and Text will be the Pedagogy and the way the Workshop will be conducted

You can get a better sense of the Standard and Customised and Career Workshops that we conduct on my company website www.jsalphaa.com  ~ Look under Training

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