2020 & 20-20 ~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat Aug 5 2017

Historic Saturday,July 1,2017~Indian Govt launches the much awaited huge Indirect Tax Reform ~ GST ~ Goods & Services Tax ~ 🙂  Here’s my GST Launch & Announcement too ~ Gaurav’s Saturday Training

2020 & 20-20 ~ The Long & Short of it ~Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, August 5, 2017  ~ Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

On the back of a  fantastic Mumbai Workshop on Saturday,June 17,2017 here’s another opportunity to invest the first Saturday in August 2017 with me ! ~ especially for those who could not make it or could not be accommodated as Registrations had closed within a week of opening ~ expecting a few repeat participants too ~ what better endorsement could there be ! ~🙂 While you can call it an Encore ,this time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept another exciting Theme to spot & assess both Long & Short Term Opportunities in Equity :

2020 & 20-20 ~ The Long & Short of it

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Fundamental Opportunities in Specific Sectors & Companies  to assess Value vs Price both in the Short Term & the Longer Term ~ thus ideal for both Traders & Investors

Here’s some fresh feedback from participants of the very recent June 17,2017 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price~ Wealth Destroyers : Potential Multibaggers where we conducted Macro & Micro Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises & more & even played an animated Corporate Tambola !  ~ Some participants came in from Dubai,Malaysia,Delhi,Cochin & Ichikaranji too ~ & what a lovely & lively Mix from retail investors to HNWI market veterans & professionals from FPIs,Fund & Broking Houses & Institutions ~ spread in age from early 20’s to the 60’s

“Again Sir you Rocked & it was my fortune to attend your wonderful workshop that too three times in a row ~ it is your simplicity, down to earth nature & great FUNDA knowledge ( how to value a stock so precisely ) made me motivated to attend your w’shop again and again & i hope in future also, I will be able to attend your w’shop ~ Every w’shop is so unique”

 

“indeed a great learning & educational experience….totally luv your analysis of stocks….looking forward to the next one”

“Always fortunate to attend…get motivated by your knowledge & the attitude  you carry with…thanks for sharing your knowledge & helping people like me to grow better” read more

Saturday Fundamental Equity Workshop ~ Tambola & Time just Flew!

Workshop Photos

It was a wonderful Saturday for all of us ~ a Full House ~Time just Flew!

The Mumbai Equity Workshop on Wealth Destroyers having the Potential to bounce back kicked off at 9.30 am stretched into 7 pm…began with a Tambola or Housie where they had to guess the Wealth Destroying company on the questions posed & strike off the name if it’s there on their Ticket…In fact each pulled out a question & posed it for all…Prizes for Jaldi 3 & Two Full Houses & a question Bank on 25 companies…like “Chor ! Chor!” & they got it ! ~ Kingfisher Airlines ! or Ethopian Counsel yet destroyed his Company  &  promptly the answer shot back “Karuturi”! Chocolates were given for each correct answer too while I spoke a minute or two on each company & how it was destroyed & whether it can revive

Covered Valuation,Sentiment,Momentum & Liquidity…the power of Compounding for Wealth Creation…FPI Flows Impact…Impact of Global & Domestic Economic & Geo-Political Head & Tail winds…the impact of three leading rates~inflation,interest & exchange….how to protect capital while growing it through the discipline of asset allocation & when to adopt tactical strategies & staying true to ones’ risk profile

…& if convinced on Equity & India…showed them why they should be…then should you go for passive index investing through Mutual Funds Schemes & be content with CAGRs of 10% to 15% over the years or should you go directly into Equity for specific selections for potential of higher gains…& why the latter should be your strategy…& why Fundamental rather than Technical Approach…& not to mistake luck for skills in such bullish markets

Tea & Coffee & a variety of Cold Beverages & Biscuits & Wafers were served through the day & we had to switch from a Copper Chimney Lunch Buffet arranged to a Soup,Salads,Sandwich & Desserts Buffet at Pizza By the Bay as the former’s kitchen had grappled with a fire the previous day & was closed on Saturday

Must Thank the Full House with Participants coming in specially from Dubai,Malaysia,Delhi,Cochin & Ichikaranji too…there were a few repeats from earlier workshops in Bangalore & Mumbai ~ take that as a thumbs up!…gratifying that within three to four days days of announcing this workshop end May 2017,it got full…surely Sensex at 31000+ and climbing has something to do with this ! 🙂 read more

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

“Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

“Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

 & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

Cheers !

Great Interaction at the Saturday Equity Workshop

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Great Interaction at the Saturday Fundamental Equity Value vs Price Mumbai Workshop…we began at 9.30 am & concluded just before 8 pm,breaking just for Lunch ~ Lovely Ginger Tea was served & welcomed heartily thrice & tetrapak drinks once during the day during the interaction & presentation itself !

As expected the November 8,2016  Demonetisation Announcement & it’s immediate implementation  & it’s continuing  Impact on Equity Markets was debated for awhile on whether stated Objectives will be met or are they really any ulterior motives

Also briefly brought up was the ugly & messy ongoing tussle in the Tata Group to oust Cyrus Mistry as Chairman & also as Director from the Tata Companies he’s on Board & how will all of this impact Tata Companies Share Prices

We did cover quite a lot with the enthusiasm  peaking while covering the Assets,Earnings & Market Relative & Absolute Valuation Basis to assess many Listed Companies,from Core to Penny Stocks to some in the news…. all at latest Friday December 2,2016 Prices

The Feedback has been very warm as were the participants as they had great fun in interacting with each other too ,especially when playing the Trust & Investment Games…..I’m sure they will vie with each other to buy out TCS at US $ 60 billion or more EV if Ratan Tata does really decide to influence the Board to plan to sell !  🙂

Participant views on the Sensex Trend in the short term  were interesting….a few had no view,a few expect sideways movement while one really enthusiastic & unmarried participant from out of town (he came again inside a few months for his second workshop with me) thinks it will crash to 13000 while a married participant was optimistic in stating it will regain 29000  in early 2017….we discussed this threadbare & whether Index Trend really mattered in Stock Selection….we also covered Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing

Yeah ! You Guys were real cool & am glad you’ll  all left with some meaningful Insights than when you walked into the Workshop  &  have strengthened your confidence & conviction to apply them in Practice for serious Wealth Creation through Direct Equity

While all of you walked out with a Kit,Memento, & literally a Tin of ‘Sweet’ Memories,I was particularly impressed,when asked by me to decide, with your immediate & unanimous vote for the ones who walked away with the rewards for the best interaction read more

Demonetisation:GDP & Real Estate & Sensex affected~For how long?Attend the Workshop

Would Love to have you at the Fundamental Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,December 3,2016

Stock Selection ~ Value vs Price ~ Positioning for 2017 & Beyond

🙂 It could turn out to be the best Investment in 2016 that you made for 2017 & Beyond !

Demonetisation : GDP & Real Estate & Sensex affected ~ For how long ?

What is more compelling right now ? ~ Opportunity in Equity or the Significance of Disciplined & Astute Asset Allocation ~ Would depend on how Aggressive or how Scared you are ! ~ or as wryly stated how Wise or Foolish you are ! ~ In the context of Investment,Trading & Speculating do you react or pro-act rationally or irrationally,impulsively or with reasoning ? Do you Sweat ,not because of Global Warming or Warm Weather,but because you’re in losses ? Discover your Risk Profile & be True to it

For answers to this & much more do take the opportunity to attend the Mumbai Fundamental Equity Full Day Workshop on Saturday,December 3,2016 .Click below to register online

Stock Selection ~ Value vs Price ~ Positioning for 2017 & Beyond

Q 3 FY 17 GDP is expected to drop below 6%  & Full Year FY 17 GDP will drop sub 7%.Sensex is already correcting sharply after Demonetisation was announced to Shock & Awe on November 8,2016.

Sensex opened 2016 at 26100 levels & dropped to 22500 levels early in the year before  smartly racing up over 30% to 29000 levels.On November 8,2016 it closed at 27591 just before Demonetisation Drive was declared  & launched at midnight.In just eight trading sessions Sensex corrected to wipe of net gains of over 6.5% in 2016 .In the Ninth session today,November 22,106 it recovered to regain 26000

=> Is Demonetisation just MAFA ,that’s Mistaking Action For Achievement & it is just Remonetisation ?

=> Will Sensex test its 2016 low of 22495 again in the short term or the current post Demonetisation announcement correction has already discounted the impact significantly & it will stabilise & turnaround from here to cross 30000 next year ?

=> Real Estate Stocks have slumped over 25% already .Will they slump a lot more when Physical Real Estate actually corrects by an expected 25%?

=> How do you Position for Wealth Creation through Equity in this Flux of Demonetisation & Donald Trump’s Truimph in the US Presidential Race & an Inevitable Fed Rate Hike coming up  that is affecting all the four legs of the Equity Table~ Liquidity,Sentiment,Momentum & Valuation? read more

SEBI is right in regulating those offering stock recos on Social Media

SEBI is right in regulating those offering stock recos on Social Media & Emails & SMSs.

SEBI’s latest salvo to brokers is a 29 Page New Compliance Directive issued in September 2016 while to Investment Advisers (IA) is a 30 page Consultation Paper of October 7,2016 for  amendments to IA Regulations 2013 & inviting comments by November 4,2016

This  Consultation Paper plans to ,among several amendments & clarifications,disallow Investment Advisers offering stock recos  on Social Media unless authorised by SEBI.This has been instantly bashed on Social Media itself for this with hash tags like #SEBIkidadagiri & #SEBIGoback

Looks like SEBI is in a Catch 22 ~ Damned if it Did & Damned if it Don’t !

In my Considered View it’s better it Did

The major grouse by those against such strong regulation is impinging on Freedom of Speech & Expression in a Democracy & why is it ok to give advice on TV and not on Social Media & SEBI just wants to get the Fees….but believe me there is a lot of Nonsense going around & make no Nonsense of it !.SEBI is simply endeavouring to stamp it out as much as it can and Fees are incidental to this objective though this is an ammunition for the critics who say that  SEBI operates in creating a Fear Psychosis environment among Capital Market Intermediaries…..let me tell you this….for decades many such Intermediaries had a free untamed and often arrogant run ….often like wolves in pack that run together in nexus that has revealed one scam after another at the cost of retail investor suckers.In the early 1990s SEBI got it’s infancy teeth and as the years rolled by  it’s wisdom teeth….also sadly in the early 1990s lobbying got the Controller of Capital Issues (CCI) body to be abolished allowing Companies to flood the Primary Markets with IPOs at obscene Premiums  in Bullish Times when it was easy to sucker a greedy Investor base.Without Strong Investor Education & Protection base in Place the Investors were left to swim & drown in the Capital Markets Sea full of Sharks

Just penning a few thoughts on the Consultation Paper & may add more as I think them….

  • Wish SEBI had invited me to be on their Committee or even as an Advisor when Planning the Regulations….sure would have added serious & fair value without bias
  • Where there is Money there will be Stink!…and with Sensex nearing 30000 again with Market Cap at Rs 11230121 crs or US $ 1.7 Trillion and expected to climb into 2017 you can imagine the Stink!…call it ‘Nexus’ if you want !….The Stakes are getting Higher in the Game !
  • It has removed some exceptions & rightly got MF Distributors who offer advice too ,IFAs & those where advisory was incidental to business & those utilising automated tools for advisory (robot advisory) within the purview
  • It’s Luck more than Skills that often determines Success & Luck gets Luckier in Bullish Times .Like worms out of  woodwork,advisors proliferate giving specific trading and investment and even speculative equity and derivative calls without much fundamental depth or basis & its easy for small investors to get swayed and seduced and influenced in the lure to make some quick monies in stocks.They often entice with free trials(this is planned to go) & play the 50/50 probability game where those who lose drop out and those who win continue till they lose while referring more suckers
  • SEBI may ban equity advice on Social Media but how would they pursue those who flout this as its difficult to trace those who use Bulk SMS & hide behind Servers & IP walls
  • Thankfully SEBI has not included Training in Capital Markets Services requires Registration.However for incisive Training I have to fundamentally analyse & value listed companies & opine on the Value Vs Share Price.I have been doing this for over 30 years .Can this Opinion for Educating & not Commercial or Investment or Disinvestment Recommendation Purposes in my Training Sessions &  on my blog linked to Social Media too,construe as Advice and which requires SEBI Registration ?…this is the reason many good analysts have stopped Blogging all together.In my view this a great disservice to small retail investors.Where would they get reliable & good reasoning advice from ? from Brokers &  Experts on Bubble TV Stock Channels?.They have their own axe to grind & I daresay are not part of the Human Race in this context!…so far for years I have turned down sponsored & paid blogger invite meets & offers of  guest & paid blogs and advertisements from many finance institutions and individuals,many of them well known to avoid any blog bias and conflict of interest.
  • Does Registration with SEBI guarantee the quality of the Advice of registered advisors and research analysts?~any individual with just a lakh of networth and who can attain at least 60% in the NISM Certification examination can register to be one stating some unverifiable experience in this field
  • Let SEBI Be a Watchdog not a Bloodhound….we are taught this the first thing when studying to be a Chartered Accountant….it cannot be a mindset for “Guilty till proven Innocent”
  • Would this be protecting the vagabond listed companies rather than Investors as no one can air an opinion or view on the company’s doings unless they are registered with SEBI!?….read many of my blogposts on such errant companies & you shall know what I mean…In the past I have fundamentally warned with reasoning ,without charging any fee, on Satyam,Geodesic,Arshiya International,Cranes Software,Karuturi etc that went on do become duds  ….now to do so I may have to seek  SEBI Registration !
  • There is a growing argument that SEBI is just frying the small…Not True….it’s got Sahara too
  • Doctors,Lawyers ,Chartered Accountants all need to be qualified and registered to practice…so should Equity Advisors….self regulation does not work as they will protect their own….we saw this with ICAI in the Satyam Matter & even AMFI in many MF matters.Having said this,just like CA’s are licking their lips on incremental work on GST roll out,Lawyers specialising in SEBI Matters too will increase & flourish as additional litigation work should flow to them
  • SEBI Registration requires a minimum Academic or Professional Qualification~Why should Politicians who stand for Elections not be qualified too !?….ah perhaps that’s what leading to faking degrees!…to register to be an Investment Adviser,one has to pass the Investor Advisers Certification Exams by NISM.To be a designated as a Research Analyst one has to have passed the NISM Research Analyst examination.This is also a requisite for registering with SEBI as a Research Analyst.After 30 years I gave an exam again!~ In July 2016 scored over 90% ,attempting 98 of the 100 questions and getting 92 right! in the online NISM Research Analyst Certification Test…This allows me legally now to be designated as a Research Analyst but I have to seek SEBI Registration to practice as one for Consideration!
  • SEBI should regulate but not over regulate or else there is danger in killing the goose that lays the egg.It must remember that Investment in Equities are inherently risky in that there is no guarantee of any return.While it protects Investors through stringent advisory regulations ,it cannot lay the ground for litigation option for these investors against the advisors and research analysts every time when their specific advice leads to a loss.Stocks are traded in real time and can go up and down.That’s the essence of Equity markets in that there is a Buyer & Seller of a specific stock at a given time and price & Prices are a factor of Liquidity,Sentiment,Momentum,Valuation & Demand & Supply & Vested Interests.Advisors can be pitted against Advisors on specific selections & thus one has to come out on the other side of the road
  • Only 515 registered Investment Advisers registered with SEBI as on September 28, 2016 ? come on !
  • Is it best left to Institutionalise the Markets and force retail investors to route through MFs?
  • SEBI clarifies the distinction between Investment Advisor & Research Analyst and that many register as latter to avoid higher compliance in the former.It now will direct even Research Analysts to make no distinction between Class of Clients in timing and comprehensivness of the Research Report being communicated.They will also have to comply with Chapter III of the Investment Advisers Regulations 2013 in that such advice has to be suitable for the client’s financial position and investment objectives.This would mean engaging in KYC and not  merely offering subscriber research reports
  • Many perceive SEBI  stands for ‘Systematic Elimination of Brokers & Investors’ ! ~ such measures reinforce this perception
  • One of SEBI’s planned measures is to ban all schemes,games,leagues & competition relating to Securities.It does not specify whether any consideration is received or not for such.I understand this was specifically aimed at all those Trading Competitions & Leagues initiated by zero discount broking houses.This was a great legally allowed Scam in itself in my view as the Broking House made lots of Crores while seducing Traders to enroll with Performance Prizes in just a few Crores.One even has legendary Cricketer Kapil Dev as it’s Brand Ambassador ! He better watch out as there are now strict accountability for Celebrities endorsing Products & Services.The trap was they had to trade a minimum number of transactions in a week that too in only the Specified Group of Scrips or else they would not qualify for the Prizes on offer.In my fundamental concept view this went against the very tenets of  making Equity Investments for Wealth Creation over the Long Term as it encouraged Quickies in Trading leading to overtrading just so they achieve the minimum transactions per week.The Mathematics were great for the Broking House !.Imagine this with just 10000 (& there are more)registered traders for such schemes ~ Five Transactions a Week a Must & Rs 20 brokerage/transaction for 52 Weeks is a cool Rs 5.2 crs!~ that’s Rs 10 lakhs Brokerage a week at just Rs 100 per trader !~ Now imagine the Maths at 1 lakh participants!…a whopping Rs 52 crs at Rs One Cr a week….Now Imagine even more than One Lakh Traders participating !…It’s literally & figuratively a Steal for the Broking House
  • For a few years on this Blog I have been successfully offering a TAP GAP Poser to all blog readers without charging any fees and instead awarding the gauravblog hampers to answers I decide are winning ones.One such Poser is an annual one at the end of the year for any participant from the public who reads my blog to suggest up to three specific equity picks that in their view will perform the best in the coming year.I may have to stop this even though there is no consideration involved.Will take SEBI’s guidance on this as their Consultation paper has even defined what construes as ‘Consideration’

As far as SEBI’s September salvo to Brokers for more compliance,it’s been a mixed reaction from brokers….some feel compliance costs will rise on account of more manpower required and new software with high annual maintenance charges & in fact it will be difficult to comply and this would lead to selling out or consolidating with other brokers….dwindling broking fees and rising costs will sound the death knell to small brokers.Who then will serve Retail Investors,if at all they are not scared away again from markets?…while some Brokers feel it will cleanse the system of manipulative & dishonest brokers & even those who cannot cope with servicing clients under stricter compliance.“kachro saaf thayi jashey” is their assertion read more