Valuation!Valuation!Valuation!~Lovely Interactive Equity Workshop

Fabulous Participants & Fabulous Interaction at the Equity Workshop
Fabulous Participants & Fabulous Interaction at the Equity Workshop

It was quite an interactive Saturday at the Full House Fundamental Equity Value Vs Price Mumbai MasterClass on Compounding & Capital Protection

We began in earnest at 9.30 am right through to 8 pm~ so much debated from current unnerving market meltdowns & what should be mindsets & strategies in such times that suddenly overcast us in September ~ of Courage & Conviction & Cash ~ what if one is fully Invested ? should one average? should one exit ? why in panic one tends to always sell off the winners to realise whatever profit in hand & let’ losers drag? ….lot’s of questions that were addressed with a confidence culled from such experiences in the past thirty years

They came from all around ~ rookies to veterans ~ small to High Net Worth ~ from Broking Houses,J P Morgan,Accenture,Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank,Cap Gemini,Reliance,Moneycontrol etc

We covered Time Value,Volatility,Valuation & Asset Allocation with Illustrations of over 25 companies with few of them in detailed Valuation over Earnings & Assets & Challenges faced…went through a few Annual Reports & Interim Results & Exchange Notifications & Developments through News in the Media…checked price trends in the short term & even over last ten years to assess Risk & Reward  & Mispricing Opportunities

How the discipline of Valuation & Asset Allocation is your Weapon for Survival & Wealth Protection while growing it & to stay away from Noise & Insider trading & from those who know nothing or even more dangerous from those who don’t know they know nothing !

Valuation ! Valuation ! Valuation ! …how this leg of the equity table actually must be the most solid to hold the table together when the other leg of Liquidity  props up the remaining two legs of Sentiment & Momentum ~ Impact & Quantum of  FPI & DII Flows especially when they slow down or reverse

Put up Friday,September 28,2018 closing prices touchlines of over 200 scrips & even those separately in the Finance,Pharma & Realty Space showing the wealth destruction in them from their 52 week Highs….alarming yes,but is there value re-emerging in many? ~ Showcased a Core Scrips Valuation Grid too

In this continuing market meltdown across the board that has knocked off 50% & more in many that actually hold wealth creation potential & in many that simply were wealth destroyers in the making & should never have been married to ,who can one trust for relevant,reliable & timely information & unbiased & wise interpretation ? ~ Government,Exchanges & Regulatory authorities,Bankers, Auditors,Media,Brokers,Experts,Promoters & Fund Managers of PMS & MFs,Company Promoters & Management ? Who ?

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Fundamental Equity Mumbai MasterClass ~ Sat Sept 29 2018

Hey! here’s a Fundamental Equity Mumbai MasterClass you should attend on Saturday,September 29,2018

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

It’s a back to back month Workshop as many could not be accommodated in the August 2018 Workshop.This is a MasterClass that focuses on Compounding & Capital Protection & involves diving deeper into data & interpretation & deliberations  

Fundamental Equity MasterClass in Mumbai
Stock Selection ~ Value Vs Price

Indian Equity ~ Compounding & Capital Protection ~ The Magic & Miracle in this Market Matrix

Saturday, September 29, 2018

There’s a lot that we shall cover on the day foremost of which is :

We’ll take a Listed Company ,which you can suggest too when you register, & :

~ We’ll check out the Promoter & Management Pedigree & their skin in the company & assess any Corporate Governance Issues

~ We’ll discuss & debate the Business Model ~ Dynamics of Demand & Supply,Scale of Opportunity,Resources,Pricing Power & Competition among others to gauge if  intention is backed by ability to execute & perform

~ We’ll rip through the Annual Report & latest Financial Performance understanding how to read & interpret these…what they state …or do not state ! .We’ll work our way through Exchange Notifications & News & Views in the Print & Social Media & on Stock Portals & TV Channels

~ We’ll work out the Valuation of the Company on several relative & absolute,traditional & contemporary basis

~ We’ll then make an assessment of Value Vs Share Price to gauge how much of it is already factored into the Price…the less it has ,the more the opportunity beckons  

With confidence & conviction you will not only be able to read & interpret Auditors Report,Profit & Loss Statement,Balance Sheet,Cash Flow Statement & Notes to Accounts  but will be equipped to assess their impact & bearing,along with other objective & subjective factors, on Valuation & further on the Share Price

This is a MasterClass…so we shall be going real deep in debate & discussion & deliberations after some deep reading & interpretation & deep valuation computations to decide with deep conviction if there indeed exists a deep compounding opportunity & what could be the downside risk in context of Capital Protection

The Investing process dialogue will cover Themes,Approaches,Strategies,Concepts,Gurus,Mistakes

You shall be able to read any Research Report with a detached mind thus not blindly accepting all that is stated or concluded in it.In fact you shall be able to create a decisive Research Report yourself

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Just 3 Seats left! Sat Aug 4 2018 Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop

Just 3 Seats left for the Saturday, August 4, 2018 Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop

Sign up now   

There’s a good mix of participants from seasoned market veterans to even novices & from independent investors to those from institutions

All coming to assess Value Vs Price & differentiate a Goldmine from an Explosive Mine in this jungle of Indian Equity & employ Compounding convincingly to create Wealth through Equity 

In the February 17,2018 Workshop just five months ago one of the Exercises was on Time Value of Money & the case study on HEG was put up to explain the practical aspect & the magic & miracle of Compounding .It had already become a huge multi-bagger in a year rising from Rs 150 levels in January 2017.Objective was to assess if HEG at even Rs 2695 on February 16,2018 could be considered if one sought 20% CAGR for three years in an Equity Investment…It involved Valuation of HEG on many traditional & contemporary basis…Today HEG closed the week at Rs 4122  already up 53% in just five months when the Nifty & Sensex have managed to hold their Highs but the Small & Mid Caps have corrected 20% to 50% & even more in many…a 20% CAGR over three years would have computed to a price of Rs 4657 by  February 2021 ! We shall of course re-assess HEG

This Workshop will continue,among other relevant valuation & wealth creation in equity concepts & market dynamics at play,to reiterate the Miracle & Magic of Compounding for serious Wealth Creation in Direct Equity & why Warren Buffett has become ‘the’ Warren Buffett because of this & his ‘Concentration’ of Stocks concept.

Will just gazing & being guided by the Nifty & Sensex add or subtract to your wealth?…how to not get seduced by explosive mines like Kwality,PC Jewellers & Vakrangee & even Subex or Suzlon !…how not to be drowned by the caco-phony in the media & market networks…phony alright especially in bull markets  

Like the Equity Coin has two sides of  a Buyer & a Seller,so are there two sides of Wealth Creation & Wealth Destruction…what’s the probability that you toss the Wealth Creation side always ?…for that you need to understand both Valuation & Market Dynamics & Forces at play   

Be there at the Workshop !

You shall enjoy not just the lunch !

Cheers !   

Sat Aug 4 2018~Mumbai Funda Equity Workshop~Spotting Gold Mines & Side Stepping Explosive Ones

Fundamental Equity Workshop in Mumbai
Stock Selection ~ Value Vs Price

Indian Equity ~ Goldmine to a Few & Explosive Mine to Many ~ Training Minds to be Minesweepers to differentiate

Saturday, August 4, 2018

Wealth of Mind & Monies must move in tandem.Click above or here to attend my next Mumbai workshop on  Saturday August 4,2018.It’s yet again at my Fort HO,above Starbucks & Croma & a hop step & jump from the BSE

Q’ attend karey? 

‘Q’uality’~how to focus on it~ Discipline of never Deviating~never? what about that potential multi-bagger turnaround or sapling that carries high risks ? Equity is all about Growing Wealth while Protecting it ~ taking & managing risk

The above Registration link also displays the Workshop Template outlining what shall be covered & why you should invest one Saturday with me

We’ve had real Fun at all the Equity Workshops in the last three years with some lovely entertaining interaction with & between participants from all over India & Overseas while playing the Corporate Tambola  or  even playing around with ‘Experts’ Views on our Sensex & Nifty or what Trump will do or not do next ! or whether any North Korea Missile is pointed at our Sensex ! or   explaining & evaluating practical applications of Investment & Financial Concepts through discussion & debate in Company Case Studies with focus on  assessing ‘Value vs Price’…we’ve seen the impact of FPI flows,Interest,Inflation & Exchange Rates,Fx Reserves,Oil Prices & Budget Deficits…we’ve discussed the importance of Corporate Earnings on Valuation & in many cases how it’s the Assets that give Value…we’ve examined the four legs of the Equity table ~ Valuation,Liquidity,Sentiment & Momentum & how to gauge rising risk when Markets run ahead of fundamentals…many of you have been rewarded too at the workshop for great lively answers & interaction

Here’s another Opportunity in August 2018 in Mumbai to Train & sharpen Minds to become more efficient MineSweepers to spot & differentiate between Wealth Creating Gold Mines & Wealth Destroying Explosive ones

We’ve tackled Valuations & Risks of Bombay Dyeing,I B Ventures,HEG ,Yuken,Ruby Mills & HOV among many others in the recent past & discussed the serious Corporate Governance Issues in the Essar Oil Delisting,Kwality,JBF & Vakrangee among others & the huge Risks associated with  wealth destroyed companies GTL Infra,ESL,Suzlon,Subex & Uttam Galva that yet keep offering hopes of a turnaround

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Kwality destroyed 90 % from Rs 160 to Rs 21 in a year !~Blame the Brokers for going broke?

You were looking for 100% gains in a year…Poof ! now you see your Principal evaporating near 100% 

Kwality Limited’s Share Price has evaporated nearly 90 % from Rs 160 to Rs 21 in a year !

Blame the Brokers for going broke?  

Where was the Quality in the first place !...it was clearly basking in the sunshine of the surge in the share price of other Dairy Companies like Heritage & Parag Milk

I recollect how aghast I was when Kwality Ltd was recommended strongly by not one but several well known broking houses in 2016 & 2017 when it was being quoted in the Rs 110 to 140 range.Targets given by them were extremely tempting to succumb to ! ~ one gave Rs 263 ! ~ another projected Rs 200 !

I have often  mentioned this Company at my Fundamental Equity Value Vs Price Training Workshops when illustrating severe Corporate Governance Issues

A few months ago on March 27, 2018 Kwality had responded to the Exchanges on their concern of falling share price that there was no strategically significant development in the organisation or business & that they were committed to deliver sustainable value to its shareholders at all time…Wow!

The Problem perhaps was on news of Promoter Dhingra pledging shares…or the Company complaining to the exchanges that a broker was fradulently selling shares in the market .Earlier this month Kwality has also been put on the Additional Surveillance Measure (ASM) List.Their June 20,2018 Board Meeting to consider buyback and /or Bonus has been rescheduled to July 3,2018 as majority of the Directors could not make it

What’s going on here !

The Exchanges have just been notified of a downgrading of credit rating by Brickwork .It was just two months ago in April 2018 when Brickwork had given their last ratings  

Today Kwality  was  on lower circuit at Rs 21.15 with heavy volumes before opening up to hit upper circuit & closing a little lower at Rs 22.95 on BSE…relief rally or someone finds real value now !? …52 Week High was @ Rs 160 a year ago…that’s nearly 90% wealth destroyed  from a Market Cap of  @ Rs 3800 crs to just above Rs 500 crs !

This is not to condemn the Broking Houses or vilify them…after all the Money & Risk is all yours…no one held a Gun to your head to invest in Kwality !…so don’t blame the brokers for going broke in this ! even if they had any vested interest in recommending the Company for Investment

Just to warn you not to be carried away by momentum & sentiment in bull markets & follow anyone blindly

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Endurance & Varroc IPOs ~ An Enduring Success Tale of Twins

Really happy for them ! ~ Anurang & Tarang Jain ~ Twins from our Sydenham College Mumbai Class of 83 & with who I’ve enjoyed long bridge sessions that often stretched into early morning while we were college mates

Related to the Bajaj Family, both were inspired & guided after post graduation to set up Auto Components Plants in Aurangabad to begin with  ~ Tarang set up Varroc Engineering in 1988 while Anurang founded the Endurance Technologies Group with it’s roots being an Aluminium Casting Plant in 1985.Their Footprint has spread globally with Endurance establishing Operations through Subsidiaries in Italy & Germany & three step down subsidiaries in Italy while Varroc has 36 plants in seven countries that include servicing North America too

Yesterday Varroc’s IPO,full offer for Sale of 20221730 Equity Shares of FV Rs 1, opened for subscription in the Rs 965-Rs 967 Band that implies at top end an IPO Size of Rs 1955 crs & a Valuation of  over Rs 13000 crs .It closed FY 18 with a Consolidated Top line of @ Rs 10400 crs

Earlier in October 2016 Anurang had already rung the success bell with Endurance’s IPO,an full offer for sale too at Rs 472 for an Equity Share of FV Rs 10, which was oversubscribed 43.7 times .Today Endurance quotes @ Rs 1250 giving a Market Cap of Rs 17700 crs.It closed FY 18 with a consolidated top line of Rs 6690 crs

Post Varroc’s IPO the Twins Companies should command a combined Market Cap of over Rs 30700 crs or @ US $ 4.5 billion on combined topline of over Rs 17000 crs or US $ 2.5 billion.Post IPO Promoters hold 82.5% of Endurance & 85% of Varroc giving the Jains a combined market wealth of over Rs 25500 crs or @ US $ 3.8 billion.Endurance is also a darling of the FPIs/MFs/DIIs .They collectively hold over 15% of the Equity leaving  under 2.5% as non institutional public float.This scenario should repeat itself also in Varroc with Anchor Investors already lapping up 5% though  it is interesting to see that neither Reliance MF nor HDFC MF are among the eight Anchor MFs…perhaps they’ll apply now or would love to know their reason for not participating  

Impressive Numbers already

Both Companies have a common Chairman,Mr Naresh Chandra

However,any Assessment from a shareholder’s viewpoint is always centered on ‘Value Vs Price’.There are always risks,largely operating,financial & legal,that companies face.

Varroc had negative Cash Flows in FY 18 & operates at lower EBITDA margins than Endurance.It also has @ Rs 1000 crs as Debt on it’s Balance Sheet at March 31,2018 of which Rs 636 crs is Long Term.Till FY 15 it was struggling with the bottomline.It’s also on the RBI watchlist as some of it’s export billings have yet to be realised over two years on …just a thought ~ 10 Million fresh issue of equity shares would have made the company debt free while increasing Equity Capital merely from Rs 13.48 crs to Rs 14.48 crs…would have saved the Company Rs 90 crs in Interest too…though issue size would have gone up to Rs 3000 crs… Tarang did come on TV yesterday to state the Debt/Equity is low at 0.3 & company does not need funds and can manage all expansion through internal accruals.He has a vision of a top line of Rs 20000 crs by 2020 & to move up Global ranking from current 6 in external lighting systems to 3 or 4…currently does Rs 7000 crs in this segment while No 5 globally does twice this

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