Boom!as FM Busts Corporate Tax!~Wow!How!Now!?

Released today under my authorship in the SCRIP STANDPOINT Module of Jeena Scriptech Alpha Advisors Pvt Ltd  

“How’s the Josh !?”

Boom!as FM Busts Corporate Tax!~Wow!How!Now!?

The effect of Fun & Excitement peaks when the cause is least expected

Market Sentiment has reversed dramatically & instantaneously !  

BSE & NSE  has seen the Sensex & Nifty created historic surges moving respectively 5.32% & 1921 points up to 38015 & 569 points to 11274 on Friday,September 20,2019 & even more by 2.83% to 39090 & 11600 on Monday ,September 23,2019 to aggregate a surge of 8.3% in just two trading days with Total Market Capitalisation zooming up in just these two trading days by Rs 10,45,700 crs or nearly US $ 150 Billion  to  Rs 148,87,830 crs or near US $ 2.1 Trillion ,thus regaining US $ 2 Trillion Capitalisation quickly ! 

Date Sensex Close Up/(Down)  Points, % Approx Total Market Cap

(Rs Crs)

Total Market Cap Up (Down )

Rs Crs, %

Friday ,September 13,2019

A Week Before

37385 1,42,42,950
Thursday,September 19,2019

Day before Tax Rate  Game Changing Significant Slash Announcement

 

36093 (1292), – 3.46 1,38,42,130 (4,00,820),  -2.8
Friday,September 20,2019

Morning of  FM’s Tax Rate  Game Changing Significant Slash Announcement

38015 1922, 5.32 % 1,45,34,237 6,92,107,   5
Monday,September 23,2019

On Second Trading Day after  FM’s Tax Rate  Game Changing Significant Slash Announcement

39090 1075, 2.83 %

&

2997 in two days, 8.3%

1,48,87,830 3,53,593,   2.43

&

10,45,700,   7.56 

Wow ! How !  Now ! ?

It took a Government Sacrifice of  Rs 1,45,000 crs or US $ 20 Billion in Corporate Tax Revenues to create a 7x sacrifice surge in Market Cap of US $ 150 Billion in just two trading days !

It’s like the Government conceding to the Corporate Sector ” Hey Guys ! we’re transferring our Revenues to you as you’ll can put it to more productive use by funding an Investment Capex Cycle to stimulate more growth for better returns than we can through increased Government Spending “

What is clearly a Market Valuation Re-Rating Move,on the morning of Friday,September 19,2019 our FM Mrs Nirmala Sitharaman announced,what should be seen as a forced measure, a Tax Bonanza for Corporates busting the Tax Rate from an effective high of 34.94% for most to an effective 25.168% with no requirement for those who opt for this rate,  to pay the Minimum Alternate Tax which too was slashed to an effective 17% from  the current 18.5%.Another major tax incentive will be a Tax rate of just 15% for manufacturing companies incorporated after October 1,2019  & who commence manufacturing by March end 2023

Such Tax Rate Cuts & Incentives  announcements should have been part of the budget in early July.If one recalls since the NDA came to power in 2014,it’s always been their stated intent to reduce the Corporate Tax Rates gradually to 25%.Economic slowdown is a catalyst to this ‘one shot’ reduction now & that’s why it can be viewed as a forced measure

It’s a ‘No Brainer’ that Markets would instantly turn euphoric as back of envelopes calculations see the Nifty 50 Companies,whose aggregate FY 19 PAT was Rs 370000 crs , benefit by a clean Rs 27000 crs or US $ 3.8 billion in FY 20 on this Tax Rate reduction.Factor in Earnings Growth before Tax & the benefit is even higher  read more

Looooooooong Full House Saturday Equity Mumbai Workshop Sept 14 2019

It was a looooooooong,should have held it over two days,  Full House Equity Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,September 14,2019 with a whole spectrum of smart participants that made for really invigorating interaction ~they came from Mumbai,Gurgaon & Pune ~ from young upwardly mobile grads & post grads from top ranked Management Institutes in India,UK (London) & USA(Harvard) to ‘ well tuned in’ professionals from the IT ,Consultancy,Broking,Corporate & Banking Sectors to veteran high networth investors . We commenced at 9.30 am & concluded well beyond 7.30 pm ~ 🙂 should have arranged dinner too

Thank you Guys !

Here are a few candid clicks from the Workshop :

The Coverage was expansive & the Interaction from Participants very intelligent & which opened out many threads that we examined with anecdotal support . When analysing a company ,they asked what is “Non Negotiable” &  “How to have Foresight as on Hindsight we are always right”

Really a lot was covered ,some of which is below  :

  • Macros through :
  1. Examining the Equity Table’s four legs of Valuation,Liquidity,Momentum & Sentiment & the Impact of FPI Flows ~ when Valuation,which should be the strongest leg,sometimes takes a back seat as Liquidity or even a lack of it drives the momentum & sentiment
  2.  Not getting Seduced by any Bounce at  Friday closing Sensex 37385 & Nifty 11076 Levels as Caution is strongly indicated by domestic & overseas economy & geo-political headwinds
  3. Negative Interest Rates Era vs the Magic of Compounding in such meltdowns
  4. Sensex & Earnings & Market Cap & low GDP growth Dynamics on Levels & Valuations ~ Past,Present & Forward & why downside risk remains wide open while the upside appears capped for now ~ we referred to 1991/92 abnormally high Sensex PE pre Harshad Mehta Scam exposure & the High PE in 2000 with Ketan Parekh was in action & where the markets were clearing running ahead of fundamentals by huge margins~ we referred to the Sensex PE of just 6 in the late 1980s when VP Singh was the PM 1988~ we covered Mkt Cap/GDP Highs pre Lehman collapse in 2007/8 & the levels now
  5. Fx Reserves  & Exchange Rate Risk &  the Risk of increasing Sovereign Debt as planned by Government ~ How our Rupee has always had a South trajectory,except when it soared from Rs 49 to the US $ to Rs 39 to the US $ creating havoc especially in the Diamond Sector
  6. Why Inversely co-related Gold & US $ are moving up together instead
  7. Turm-Oil & Impact on Fiscal Deficit & Rupee  like last happened in 2007/8( On Saturday at the workshop we were not yet clued in to the Drone Attack on the Oil Refinery in Saudi Arabia that saw Oil Prices dangerously soar 20% in spot) ~ India is hugely dependent on Oil Imports
  8. Interest & Inflation rates
  9. Trump ~ Not sure if he’s a macro or micro factor !
  • Micros through many companies  & sector dynamics covering :
  1. Checklist on how to Smartly & Effectively & thus Quickly Read a voluminous Annual Report
  2. Our Five Steps for Evaluating a Company for Investment
  3. Impact on the Financial Statements in Scenarios like Buy Back,Rights Issues,Fictitious Sales,RBI issuing a divergence on Provisioning for NPAs,non linear jump in Sales Realisations,5 G Spectrum Fees,Permanent Diminution in Investments,Monetising Assets & Depreciation of the Rupee
  4. Quick Brief on Absolute & Relative Valuation & how to prepare a quick Valuation Grid from the Annual Report, Market Price Trends & Shareholding
  5. Why Liquidity more than Profitability is the ‘Circle of Life’  for a Company as viewed through the lens of the Cash Flow Statement dervived from the Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss Ac & that distinguishes operating,financing & investing flows
  6. Corporate Governance Issues on inadequate Disclosure or Non Disclosure, Incorrect & questionable Accounting Treatment & Lack of Transparency &  irresponsible (deliberate?)  Management utterances  that give a leg to Insider Trading & huge Profits through  Derivatives Play
  7. Courage & Conviction Promoter or Institutional recent Buying in Vodafone,Yes Bank,I B Real Estate & Tata Motors & seeing more wealth destruction since in these   
  8. Basis for Disclaimer of Opinion by the Auditor of Reliance Infrastructure & what holds out some hope
  9. Intangibles,Investments & Impairments
  10. Reliance Industries’s Enterprise Value,Revenue Segments Potential,Spin offs of the Jio Telecom Infra into two trusts, Aramco’s 20% stake being negotiated in the Refining,Petroleum Retailing & Petrochemicals Business that should lead to further demerger & reviving & scaling the Gas Exploration Operations
  11. How Defaults & Corporate Governance Issues decimated into or near oblivion Eros,Cox & Kings,ManPasand,Tree House Education,Satyam,Jet Airways,Kingfisher & Talwalkars & is there any hope of operational & share price recovery with Asset values holding out some hope in a few ~ How Clearly the Statutory Auditors & Credit Rating Agencies were negligent or intentionally turned a blind eye in many cases
  12. Huge Potential Outlay of the ‘Nal sey Jal’ Scheme of the Government & the new Jal Shakti Ministry focus that should benefit many companies if the implementation & execution is as noteworthy as the intent
  13. How IndAs 115 continues to affect Bombay Dyeing
  14. How Exchanges continue to accept outright untrue or tepid clarifications from Companies
  15. Reference to Investment Gurus & Living Legends Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch Approaches & Success
  16.  Coverage of a few sectors like Defence, Hydrocarbons,Broking,Telecom,Real Estate,NBFCs,Banks & Automobiles & Disruption that’s in play in many
  17. Consolidation & Capitalisation of PSU Banks & the controversial Acquisition of Laxmi Vilas Bank by I B Housing Finance pending RBI approval
  18. Common Investor Mistakes

The next Equity Workshop is scheduled  pre-Diwali for Saturday ,October 19,2019 & will be announced soon on www.jsalphaa.com & social media

Touched by some warm & constructive feedback from participants :

  • thanks for a lovely interactive session…”
  • “enjoyed your session yday”
  • “it was great to meet again & reskill to be better prepared for opportunities which would arise”
  • “Thanks for being the Enabler,the last few days have been very encouraging”
  • “Cover the Scenarios Exercise more with Investor focus than just on Accounting Impact & take in a few Annual Reports before Lunch”  

😆 & I swear I did not pay for these ones !

  • ” You are very good at what you do,comes naturally to you,with a vastness of the subject to cover you did justice to cover the best you could with your insights and experience of all the treasures of knowledge,you are an encyclopedia of the subject with case studies,which is the best way of teaching, sharing & learning according to me,the various industries that you know of,the processes & the products,the promoters & the pitfalls,the auditors & the audited,you can understand in the readings the stated & the unstated,intention & intended,you truly personify_the integration of intellect with instinct_”   
  • “Whoever missed this one, missed learning a radical way to look at balance sheets. Very practically in a few minutes you can strip away the padding and bullshit that promoters hide their sins behind. If the stock market’s motto or rather rider has always been caveat emptor or buyer beware, Gaurav’s lessons in Analysis would ensure that a “fool and his money are not soon parted” for when emotions like fear and greed coupled with ignorance seize us even the wisest are prone to behave like fools. Especially the wisest!”
  • read more

    Sat 24 Aug 2019 Mumbai Equity Workshop on Stripping Annual Reports ~ Bullshit or Badass

     🙂 Are you yet Alive in these Markets !?  😯 Wish to remain so ?

    Then after June 22,2019 , here’s another great  Rs 9000 opportunity to attend my Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop  ~ 😆 Please don’t ask for any discount because I can’t say No !

    Interpretation of Financial Statements
    Indian Equity ~ (St)Ripping Annual Reports ~ Bullshit or Badass
    Full Saturday, August 24, 2019

    Limited Seats so do book yours right away here => www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    No prior Financial or fundamental knowledge is required. Just come with an Open Mind dressed with Common sense to realise how uncommon it really is ! At the time of Registration or even later you can even request for a Specific Company you wish who’s Annual Report be (st)ripped at the Workshop 

    Here’s a warm testimonial from a participant who flew in from Accra,Ghana for the June 22,2019 workshop on Sensex at 40000 ~ Treasure & Traps where we covered Risk Profiling & Returns ,Scenarios & Scrips,Macros & Mistakes,Treasures & Traps ~ assessing many on Value Vs Price ~ 😀 Yes, the workshop did go on till much later than scheduled close,as is usual….there was so much fun interaction,again as is usual

    ” It was a privilege to attend your workshop.I gained a lot of wisdom & knowledge.Many thanks & God Bless ” 

    & another from a repeat participant ” Many many thanks Gaurav.It was really wonderful.Really appreciate all the efforts and the sharing of your knowledge.It was outstanding ” 

    There’s a comprehensive Workshop Template on the Registration link that details out why you should attend & what benefits you can expect to derive

    Here are a few extracts from this  Workshop Template that should convince you to be there on Saturday,August 24,2019

    It’s been a market meltdown of frightening proportion across the Board, except in a few ,visibly an (un)lucky 13 that constitute high weightage in the Sensex & Nifty that has kept these Indices alive at 38000 & 11000 yet

    The ‘Fun’ in  ‘Fun’damental Stock Stories too has vanished with Equity Portfolios showing strong depression in almost all stock selections across sectors & Market Cap segments  

    Company Annual Report ~ Can we yet revere it as the Bible or Bhagvad Gita or Quran for Company Performance !?

    Never judge a Book by it’s Cover.We’ve seen the Annual Report sabotaged, painted & tainted by sub standard supervision , monitoring & assessment ,intentional or otherwise, by Banks & other Lending Institutions, Statutory & Internal Auditors , Regulators & Credit Rating Agencies. read more

    Shareholder Shenanigans ~ Hey Mister Aster whose Healthcare are you after !

    Shareholder Shenanigans ~ Hey Mister Aster whose Healthcare are you after !

    Invariably the Construction of  the Pre IPO Equity Capital of a Company  reveals the Fairness & Character & Mindset of Promoters & other Equity Stakeholders in it & extent of any obscene premium seduction if any 

    What can we infer from a Company  :

    • that issues further shares end December 2011 at Rs 10,000 to an existing Private Equity (PE) Stakeholder Player 1   from 2008 which takes their total Equity Investment in the Company to just over Rs 22 crs & just 20 days later in January 2012 ,this PE Player 1 sells just @ 30.8% of  it’s Equity stake for Rs 110 crs ! to a new incoming PE Equity Player 2 at Rs 1,58,918 per share ~that’s 1500% & 15 times over latest unit share cost of Rs 10000 ! Thus it recovers 4 times it’s aggregate Investment in literally no time  & yet continues to hold a good stake in the Company which it has just sold for Rs 120 to get a huge Rs 554 crs    
    • that issues two liberal back to back Bonus issues of 1000:1  in 2012 & 2: 1 in 2013 from the Share Premium paid by incoming PE Player 2 in 2012 when it invested Rs 504 crs in the Company through Rs 394 crs new issue by the company & Rs 110 crs purchase from PE Player 1 as stated above  
    • where Promoters transfer shares in December 2017 at just Rs 22.14 per share just two months before February 2018 IPO at Rs 190 to PE Player 2 referring to a costing methodology of a Shareholder Purchase Agreement (SPA) of May 2014 when this PE Player 2 had invested further in May 2014 itself directly in a fresh issue by the Company at Rs 102.85 & on same day as per same SPA even picked up shares from Promoters at Rs 189.46.Even CCCP’s issued were converted at Rs 111.65 in November 2017,three months before the Rs 190 IPO.An SPA that spells out a costing method that works out to a much lower throwaway price of just Rs 22.14 per share three & a half years down the road in December 2017 will indeed raise an eyebrow.A lower price would imply growth parameters have not resulted as envisaged.Why  price the IPO at Rs 190 ? Should have been at Rs 22,I daresay !        

    If Memory serves me right,the Financial Year 2011-12 was perhaps the last year before Income Tax & Company Act restrictions came into force on the issue of Shares at unjustified & obscene premiums….nevertheless

    Such Modus Operandi was quite prevalent in Companies to infuse huge funds into Equity at bizarre premiums not in sync with Valuation which would facilitate insignificant Equity Dilution which otherwise would have impacted Promoter & Other existing  Shareholders Stakes.This invariably was followed up with bizarre Bonus Issues which while maintaining the Equity Stakes of all served largely to considerably lower per share holding cost of Shareholders that had infused such Equity Capital at obscene Premiums….daresay some indulged in this even for laundering or accepting white bribes

    Two recent events drew me to  checking out Aster DM Healthcare @ Rs 127

    1~ First when observed huge Market Deals being executed end of last month on June 26 & 27, 2019 at Rs 120 with Private Equity Shareholder True North Fund III A  ( earlier called India Value Fund (IVF) ) offloading it’s full 9.15% stake of 4.62 cr shares to a host of Big names that included Fidelity,Tata AIG Insurance A/c Wholelife Midcap Equity,HDFC Small Cap Fund,Ontario Pension & Steinberg

    2 ~Was not impressed at this first quick look on performance & prospects & was letting go when a Stock Channel carried an interview of it’s Promoter & ED & Chairperson Mr Azad Moopen on July 12,2019.

    Intrigued me to have a re-look as Mr Moopen stated verbatim these two threads  :

    • “we think  that this is a very low price for this stock “ ~ on Share Price of @ Rs 121/122 as on July 12,2019 & on bulk deal price of Rs 120 end June 2019 when PE Player True North Fund III exited ~ is not there some restriction on Company promoters and management making such views public on Share Price ?
    • “extremely useful in the initial phase” ” significant value addition to the company”  ” True North has been a great strength ” ” no way they could hold on beyond 9 to 10 years” ~ on Private Equity Player, True North Fund III A who had initiated a stake in 2008 in Aster & who exited last month in June 2019

    I looked at the IPO Prospectus that announced Aster DM Healthcare’s February 2018  IPO eighteen months ago at Rs 190,a pricing that’s 33% higher than today’s Rs 127

    While I appreciate Mr Moopen’s honourable healthcare venture in the last three decades what caught my attention,as it usually does,was the not so honourable Construction of the pre IPO Equity Capital

    Here are some interesting extracts & derived data  on the constructions of holdings of PE Player 1  True North &  PE Player 2 Olympus Capital Asia Investments in Aster DM Healthcare Limited.The Post IPO Equity Issue stands at Rs 505.23 crs with  50,52,27,345 shares of FV Rs 10 . read more

    Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 22 2019 ~ Sensex at 40000 ~ Treasures & Traps

    The last Seven Workshops have seen a Full House  & great interaction 

    Here’s another lovely Opportunity 

    Register for the Workshop here 

    Saturday, June 22, 2019

    Fundamental Equity Workshop in Mumbai
    Stock Selection ~ Value Vs Price
    Indian Equity ~ Sensex at 40,000 ~ Treasures & Traps

    Limited Seats – Single Registration at Rs 12,000 ~ Group Registration of 3 or more at Rs 10,200 each

    Save this Date & register for  another great opportunity to interact for a full Saturday ~ You can even request coverage of any particular company or companies when you register

    Trapped in Scrips that have destroyed wealth  ? ~ Want to develop foresight in avoiding such Value Traps by identifying Red Flags before hand from Corporate Governance Issues & Financial Statements & other coverage in Annual Reports ?

    How to position the Equity portfolio with Sensex at record 40000 ~ Do Valuations look stretched in the short term ?

    How to protect Wealth while creating it in Direct Equity? ~ Need  Conviction to Invest in Direct Equity ?

    We shall be addressing these & many more concerns  at this Mumbai Workshop  

    Look forward to seeing you at the Workshop

    Any Queries or need guidance call me on +91-9820162597 or on + 91-22-42304140 or email me at gaurav@jsalphaa.com

    Cheers,

    Gaurav

     

    Gaurav A Parikh

    Workshop Conceptualised & Conducted by

    GAURAV A PARIKH

    Treasures & Traps ~ Rewards & Risks ~ Clearly this is the moot mindset focus currently with Sensex & Nifty recording all time highs of 40000 & 12000 respectively driven by a handful of high index weightage core stocks on the second TsuNaMo election wave in five years.

    Gaurav A ParikhCapital Protection  is a ‘must have’  Mindset  at all times for serious Wealth Creation through Equity.While Growing your Wealth it’s equally imperative to Protect it.

    One way to do so is to develop fundamental conviction & foresight to consciously avoid ‘Value Traps’ like Suzlon & Subex & PC Jewellers & Manpasand Beverages & Vakrangee & not be seduced or influenced by those who peddle such on social & print media & stock channels.

    In such record bullish momentum on the Sensitive Indices it is FOMO or the Fear of Missing Out that is the biggest seducer as many influencing voices call  these  or near these record levels as the new bottom on the Sensitive Indices.

    This Workshop will equip you to deal with these questions :

    • How to assess the capacity & the willingness to assume Equity Risk?
    • How to Fundamentally Value & Select & Weight the Companies in a Portfolio ?
    • How do Company Valuations rack up against their Share Price now? ~ If there is Value, where can we find it as we negotiate these bullish markets which heightens the risk of more & more ‘Value Traps’ emerging
    • How should one read & interpret News & Views in the Print & Social Media & on Stock Portals & Channels ?
    • What are the red flags one should look for in an Annual Report ?
    • How much of such Interpretation & Valuation is already reflected in the Share Price ?
    • Where can we pin down Certainty in the Uncertainty in Equity Markets ?
    • How to strengthen resolve & conviction to hold on to Selections even when facing unrealized losses?
    • When & How to decide a Switch in Equity Holdings?
    • How not to let Emotion & Ego dictate holding on to Losers & Wealth Destroyers & just letting them go or avoiding them in the first place?

    Invest a Saturday with Gaurav to discuss & debate all the above & more & to appreciate that Wealth of Mind & Monies must Move in Tandem & fundamentally assess Macros & Micros. read more

    Q&A Outlook Business~Dont See Elections as a Risk Factor for Indian Equities~See Value Pockets across Sectors

    Screenshot_20190424-142037 Screenshot_20190424-141916 Screenshot_20190424-141824 Screenshot_20190424-141733 Screenshot_20190424-141724 Screenshot_20190424-141717 Screenshot_20190424-141704 Screenshot_20190424-141649 Screenshot_20190424-141628 Screenshot_20190424-141620 Screenshot_20190424-141609 Screenshot_20190424-141525

    Some of you may be interested in this ~ It’s a brief video Interview that Outlook Business has carried on their website www.outlookbusiness.com  & on YouTube this month April 2019 & which can be viewed below reflecting my views on :

    • Lok Sabha Elections that have commenced~ don’t see them a as a risk factor for Indian Equities
    • Value Pockets across Sectors,PSUs too
    • A convincing real estate play ~ if inclined,do also read the detailed coverage  here 

    Wishing all of you a profitable Financial Year 2019-20 after a roller coaster emotional FY 2018-19 for most who lived a disconnect between  Sensex & Nifty seeking record highs  & Small & Mid Caps giving up significant gains in quick time too

    Cheers !