Looooooooong Full House Saturday Equity Mumbai Workshop Sept 14 2019

It was a looooooooong,should have held it over two days,  Full House Equity Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,September 14,2019 with a whole spectrum of smart participants that made for really invigorating interaction ~they came from Mumbai,Gurgaon & Pune ~ from young upwardly mobile grads & post grads from top ranked Management Institutes in India,UK (London) & USA(Harvard) to ‘ well tuned in’ professionals from the IT ,Consultancy,Broking,Corporate & Banking Sectors to veteran high networth investors . We commenced at 9.30 am & concluded well beyond 7.30 pm ~ 🙂 should have arranged dinner too

Thank you Guys !

Here are a few candid clicks from the Workshop :

The Coverage was expansive & the Interaction from Participants very intelligent & which opened out many threads that we examined with anecdotal support . When analysing a company ,they asked what is “Non Negotiable” &  “How to have Foresight as on Hindsight we are always right”

Really a lot was covered ,some of which is below  :

  • Macros through :
  1. Examining the Equity Table’s four legs of Valuation,Liquidity,Momentum & Sentiment & the Impact of FPI Flows ~ when Valuation,which should be the strongest leg,sometimes takes a back seat as Liquidity or even a lack of it drives the momentum & sentiment
  2.  Not getting Seduced by any Bounce at  Friday closing Sensex 37385 & Nifty 11076 Levels as Caution is strongly indicated by domestic & overseas economy & geo-political headwinds
  3. Negative Interest Rates Era vs the Magic of Compounding in such meltdowns
  4. Sensex & Earnings & Market Cap & low GDP growth Dynamics on Levels & Valuations ~ Past,Present & Forward & why downside risk remains wide open while the upside appears capped for now ~ we referred to 1991/92 abnormally high Sensex PE pre Harshad Mehta Scam exposure & the High PE in 2000 with Ketan Parekh was in action & where the markets were clearing running ahead of fundamentals by huge margins~ we referred to the Sensex PE of just 6 in the late 1980s when VP Singh was the PM 1988~ we covered Mkt Cap/GDP Highs pre Lehman collapse in 2007/8 & the levels now
  5. Fx Reserves  & Exchange Rate Risk &  the Risk of increasing Sovereign Debt as planned by Government ~ How our Rupee has always had a South trajectory,except when it soared from Rs 49 to the US $ to Rs 39 to the US $ creating havoc especially in the Diamond Sector
  6. Why Inversely co-related Gold & US $ are moving up together instead
  7. Turm-Oil & Impact on Fiscal Deficit & Rupee  like last happened in 2007/8( On Saturday at the workshop we were not yet clued in to the Drone Attack on the Oil Refinery in Saudi Arabia that saw Oil Prices dangerously soar 20% in spot) ~ India is hugely dependent on Oil Imports
  8. Interest & Inflation rates
  9. Trump ~ Not sure if he’s a macro or micro factor !
  • Micros through many companies  & sector dynamics covering :
  1. Checklist on how to Smartly & Effectively & thus Quickly Read a voluminous Annual Report
  2. Our Five Steps for Evaluating a Company for Investment
  3. Impact on the Financial Statements in Scenarios like Buy Back,Rights Issues,Fictitious Sales,RBI issuing a divergence on Provisioning for NPAs,non linear jump in Sales Realisations,5 G Spectrum Fees,Permanent Diminution in Investments,Monetising Assets & Depreciation of the Rupee
  4. Quick Brief on Absolute & Relative Valuation & how to prepare a quick Valuation Grid from the Annual Report, Market Price Trends & Shareholding
  5. Why Liquidity more than Profitability is the ‘Circle of Life’  for a Company as viewed through the lens of the Cash Flow Statement dervived from the Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss Ac & that distinguishes operating,financing & investing flows
  6. Corporate Governance Issues on inadequate Disclosure or Non Disclosure, Incorrect & questionable Accounting Treatment & Lack of Transparency &  irresponsible (deliberate?)  Management utterances  that give a leg to Insider Trading & huge Profits through  Derivatives Play
  7. Courage & Conviction Promoter or Institutional recent Buying in Vodafone,Yes Bank,I B Real Estate & Tata Motors & seeing more wealth destruction since in these   
  8. Basis for Disclaimer of Opinion by the Auditor of Reliance Infrastructure & what holds out some hope
  9. Intangibles,Investments & Impairments
  10. Reliance Industries’s Enterprise Value,Revenue Segments Potential,Spin offs of the Jio Telecom Infra into two trusts, Aramco’s 20% stake being negotiated in the Refining,Petroleum Retailing & Petrochemicals Business that should lead to further demerger & reviving & scaling the Gas Exploration Operations
  11. How Defaults & Corporate Governance Issues decimated into or near oblivion Eros,Cox & Kings,ManPasand,Tree House Education,Satyam,Jet Airways,Kingfisher & Talwalkars & is there any hope of operational & share price recovery with Asset values holding out some hope in a few ~ How Clearly the Statutory Auditors & Credit Rating Agencies were negligent or intentionally turned a blind eye in many cases
  12. Huge Potential Outlay of the ‘Nal sey Jal’ Scheme of the Government & the new Jal Shakti Ministry focus that should benefit many companies if the implementation & execution is as noteworthy as the intent
  13. How IndAs 115 continues to affect Bombay Dyeing
  14. How Exchanges continue to accept outright untrue or tepid clarifications from Companies
  15. Reference to Investment Gurus & Living Legends Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch Approaches & Success
  16.  Coverage of a few sectors like Defence, Hydrocarbons,Broking,Telecom,Real Estate,NBFCs,Banks & Automobiles & Disruption that’s in play in many
  17. Consolidation & Capitalisation of PSU Banks & the controversial Acquisition of Laxmi Vilas Bank by I B Housing Finance pending RBI approval
  18. Common Investor Mistakes

The next Equity Workshop is scheduled  pre-Diwali for Saturday ,October 19,2019 & will be announced soon on www.jsalphaa.com & social media

Touched by some warm & constructive feedback from participants :

  • thanks for a lovely interactive session…”
  • “enjoyed your session yday”
  • “it was great to meet again & reskill to be better prepared for opportunities which would arise”
  • “Thanks for being the Enabler,the last few days have been very encouraging”
  • “Cover the Scenarios Exercise more with Investor focus than just on Accounting Impact & take in a few Annual Reports before Lunch”  

😆 & I swear I did not pay for these ones !

  • ” You are very good at what you do,comes naturally to you,with a vastness of the subject to cover you did justice to cover the best you could with your insights and experience of all the treasures of knowledge,you are an encyclopedia of the subject with case studies,which is the best way of teaching, sharing & learning according to me,the various industries that you know of,the processes & the products,the promoters & the pitfalls,the auditors & the audited,you can understand in the readings the stated & the unstated,intention & intended,you truly personify_the integration of intellect with instinct_”   
  • “Whoever missed this one, missed learning a radical way to look at balance sheets. Very practically in a few minutes you can strip away the padding and bullshit that promoters hide their sins behind. If the stock market’s motto or rather rider has always been caveat emptor or buyer beware, Gaurav’s lessons in Analysis would ensure that a “fool and his money are not soon parted” for when emotions like fear and greed coupled with ignorance seize us even the wisest are prone to behave like fools. Especially the wisest!”
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    Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

    Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

    🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

    WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

    As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

    Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

    “Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

    “Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

     & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

    Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

    Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

    gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

    🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

    Cheers !

    Anil D Ambani Reliance Group~Market Cap & Debt ~ Defence to its Defence

    Have a Look at the Market Cap (today closing March 28,2016)& Consolidated Debt (September 30,2015) of these Five Listed Companies of Anil D Ambani

    Name Of The Company

    Market Cap (Rs.Crs)

    Total Debt (Rs.Crs)

    Reliance Power

    13015

    31428

    Reliance Infrastructure

    13747

    24645

    Reliance Capital

    9117

    22730

    Reliance Communication

    12457

    35254

    Reliance Defence

    5098

    6884

    Total

    53434

    120941

    Rs 120941 crs was the Aggregate Consolidated Long & Short Term Debt of Anil Ambani’s Reliance Five Listed Group Companies as on September 30,2015 while today’s Market Cap is Rs 53434 crs.Aggregate it and you’ll get Enterprise Value without adjusting for any Cash    

    Reliance Defence (erstwhile Pipavav) has come into his fold now and a turnaround is expected after CDR was approved ~ RCom is planning to reduce Debt substantially by selling Assets like it’s Tower Business.It also is being supported by Big Brother Mukesh Ambani’s tie ups for Jio Roll outs etc ~ RPower has just declared and paid it’s maiden interim dividend of 10% in December 2015 but continues to struggle to commission Samalkot Power Plant on non availability of Gas ~ Rinfra & RCap are the relatively stabler companies

    As long as his companies keeps servicing debt the Banks who have lend will not have to classify the Loans as NPAs….In fact with Anil Ambani planning huge Defence Sector Investments and Growth in his other Companies the aggregate Debt may increase even after Asset Sell offs

    Problem is that Anil Ambani has not been enjoying good Investor Credibility after wealth destruction in RCom & RPower & suspected involvement of top management in the 2G Telecom Scam.Investigation continues

    The Group’s Market Cap is Rs 53434 crs ~ Compare this with Big Brother Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries that closed today with a Market Cap of Rs 330654 crs

    Now his big Focus is on Defence with India having embarked on a Huge Defence  ‘Make in India’ Endeavour opening out FDI  Cap to 49% in the Sector

    None of Anil Ambani’s Companies have approached it’s shareholders or the Public for funds after the Reliance Power IPO at Rs 450  in January 2008

    None have as None could !

    The Reliance Power IPO was a huge obscene premium assault on the Public from which the Public has yet to recover (Quotes at Rs 47 today after a Bonus Issue in 2008 itself  from the Premium collected that adjusted the Price to @ Rs 270!) .The Issue was hyped by the Investment Banker Wolves to create a huge oversubscription.

    Of course in January 2011 Anil Ambani had entered into a Consent Plea with SEBI without admission of guilt & was investigated for misuse of Overseas Borrowed Funds and was personally fined and banned access to Capital Markets for a year and Reliance Infra for two years    read more

    Schadenfreude ~ Pleasure derived from the misfortune of another !

    Came across Schadenfreude ~ Pleasure derived from the misfortune of another

    ….came across the use of this word while reading the Huge Mess of Hydel Power Projects in Arunachal Pradesh & the likes of business houses like Jindal Power,IL & FS & Lanco approaching National Hydel Power Corporation (NHPC) to take over their projects….NHPC is not too keen….Says M Rajshekhar,the author of this report “The reason for its reluctance goes beyond understandable schadenfreude. Its solitary project in Arunachal – Lower Subansiri – is stuck in a quagmire as well 

    Rather Ironic now that many such Hydel Power Projects were actually taken away from NHPC between 2005 & 2009 and given to the likes of Reliance Energy,Jaiprakash Associates,DS Constructions,Jindal Power & KSK Energy….Most of them,if not all have turned into white elephants….and the privatisation actually led to many misdeeds like signing MOUs merely to raise monies and sell the MOUs itself !

    Real woes experienced were the ” absence of roads and power lines. Not to mention local protests and extortion rackets, especially by local student unions. The state government too was a factor. While it wanted 26% equity in each project, it did not have the cash needed to pay for those shares.” says M Rajshekhar

    And Now Presidents Rule is being imposed in Arunachal Pradesh !  

    Of Course Political Patronage & Crony Capitalism have combined in this Privatisation endeavour that’s created this mess

    Remember Reliance Power’s IPO in January 2008 at Rs 450 and the Prospectus announcing the roadmap to create nearly 30000 MW by 2016 & which included Hydel Projects in Arunachal Pradesh !

    Indiabulls Housing Finance & Reliance Communications sinking on Bourses !

    Post Bihar Elections Results observe the rapid decline in share prices of Indiabulls Housing Finance & Reliance Communications!

    Both are sinking on the Bourses  by 15% + & 10% respectively today ….far more than Sensex drop of 1% to 25600 levels !…and both are traded in F & O Segments too !

    Indiabulls Housing Finance down 15% + this morning !

    Indiabulls Housing Finance had recorded a high of Rs 820 on BSE on August 10,2015 and was available at even Rs 750 levels end October 2015,just a fortnight ago!.Last few days it has rapidly sunk and today the intensity was a worrying over 15% to sub  Rs 600 levels this morning

    This is just a day after it announced it was acquiring 39.76 % stake for US $ 100 m in the UK Bank OakNorth as was announced also by the PM in his address to Businessmen in UK yesterday while on a three day UK Trip.Interestingly this acquisition was guided by the outspoken and blunt Dr K C Chakrabarty who is on the Board of Indiabulls Housing Finance and who retired in 2014 as Dy RBI Governor…I had blogged on him then  when he was blasting the banking rot !…See the link below :

    Why Now? ~RBI Dy Governor K C Chakrabarty speaks his Mind on the Banking Rot and seeks to retire a few months early !

    Saturday, March 22nd, 2014

     

    Recently in September 2015  the Company had also raised Rs 3997 crs in a QIP at Rs 702 that took it’s networth past Rs 10000+ crs.It has just announced a third interim dividend for FY 16 on it’s FV Rs 2 Share

    BSE shows an average Two Week  Daily Volume of just 49000 shares .But today there’s mean abnormal selling at just past noon the Volume is 8.6 lakh shares already !

    What’s happening ! ? Anybody knows !?

    Incidentally the Chairman Sameer Gehlaut too is picking up a 10% stake in the UK Bank in his personal capacity

     

    RCom ringing alarm bells on the bourses

    Reliance Communication  recorded a day’s low of Rs 63.75 down over 10% this morning and is trying to recover from there.Just last week it was Rs 82 !….having surged from Rs 50 levels end August 2015….down by 20% from Rs 80+ levels inside days !

    Average Two Week Daily Volume is 16 lakhs but it’s approaching 30 lakhs already on BSE as we approach 12.30 pm!

    Anybody can explain !?

     

    Whatever be the reason ! and there has to be !,such Volatility in such F & O Segment Scrips is unnerving for  Speculators,Traders & Investors et all with the exception of Insiders !

    And Both were positioned well,despite Corporate Governance Issues,to move further ahead on favourable fundamental developments and on current valuations  !…and I did discuss them at my recent NSE Workshop on October 31,2015 highlighting the Corporate Governance Risks though ! read more

    Shyam Telecom Upper Circuit at Rs 51+ as RCom buys into SSTL ~ Not Justified

    Shyam Telecom was on Upper Circuit at Rs 51+ this morning  as RCom buys into SSTL ~ Not Justified  

    Anil Ambani’s listed Reliance Communication just announced a few days ago it’s picking up the wireless business of  Russian Parent’s Indian unlisted Sistema Shyam Teleservices Ltd that operates in India as a Telecom Service Provider under the MTS Brand

    SSTL would get 10% of RCom in an all stock deal that was expected to conclude mid 2016.This is current worth just over @ 2000 crs assuming RCom Share Prce of @ Rs 80

    I had blogged extensively on Shyam Telecom just two years ago in October 2013 when it had rocketed from Rs 16 to Rs 46 then…link is below

    Shyam Telecom continues to Fly into a different Orbit ! From Rs 16 in August to Rs 46 upper circuit now !

    Saturday, October 12th, 2013

    Today Shyam Telecom hit an upper circuit of Rs 51.55 in the morning on NSE and also Rs 50.65 on BSE and has now opened out

    The rise today is not really justified

    Shyam Telecom owns just 380307 Equity Shares of FV Rs 10 of SSTL….That’s a paltry 0.01% of SSTL…If it thus opts to exchange these shares for RCom shares post deal it would get barely just over 25000 shares that’s worth just over Rs 20 lakhs

    Market probably is under impression Shyam Telecom owns 24% of  SSTL while  it’s actually the Shyam Telecom Promoter Group of Rajiv Mehrotra that does own 22.65% of the SSTL Equity

    SSTL has an Equity of Rs 3193.82 crs of which Russian Parent Sistema holds 56.68%,Russian Government owns 17.14% aggregating  a Russian Interest of 73.82% .The Shyam Telecom Group of Rajiv Mehrotra owns 22.65% with 3.53 % owned by over 18000 non promoter group shareholders

    The Shyam Telecom Group that owns 22.65% comprises of Mehrotra owned entities of Intell Invofin,AT Invofin,Cellphone Credit & Securities and others

    Each of these three Mehrotra Entities of the Shyam Telecom Group are common Investors in Shyam Telecom & SSTL and own 15.065%,7.186% & 6.745% in listed Shyam Telecom  and 10.95%,5.48% & 5.48% respectively in unlisted SSTL…..so it is these three Mehrotra Companies that will get under 6 cr shares of RCom valued under  Rs 500 crs currently should they opt for them in exchange of their SSTL holding

    Shyam Telecom should continue to languish unless Rajiv Mehrotra decides to turn it around with fresh infusion of funds and new Business….now that’s a possibility and any share price rice will have to be assuming this and not the immediate Value benefit of RCom shares that the Company would be entitled too ! read more