Scooters India up @ Rs 75~BSE IPF Oct 2017 Report farcical?

Scooters India up @ Rs 75~You may have shunned it on reading the Oct 12, 2017 BSE Investor Protection Fund (BSE IPF) Commissioned Report

Why have I questioned it as farcical?

Well…who selects which Company should be covered in such Reports by the BSE IPF ? For in Scooters India the Performance really is secondary at this juncture,even though their Vikram Three Wheelers have got a market share in UP at least where they are manufactured near Lucknow  ~ what is moot is the proposed disinvestment & the assets,including land of 125 acres, that goes with the company  ~ Valuation is essentially ultimately a factor of Earnings &/or Net Assets

The Point is that any Report that the BSE IPF commissions to serve the Investors ,needs to be impactful & serve the purpose for which it has been commissioned

Their Initiative of course deserves applause & support

It is not,of course the job of  the Preparer to give a View to Buy or Hold or Sell the Scrip being commented on & their statement & disclaimer covers this in the report.They have rightly stated that this is not a recommendation & the purpose is to only make available publicly information to the readers in an easy to read format

As an illustration take this October 12,2017 Report on Scooters India covering the June FY 18 Quarter Overview

http://www.bseindia.com/download/Research_Report/Report/505141/2017-18/Scooters%20India%20Ltd.pdf

The Performance was clearly sub par & any reader would not have looked to seriously consider Scooters India in their portfolio…more so as it was also,I believe, in the double margin XT category then on the BSE…in fact if any held it,they may have considered to dispose at the Price levels of Rs 41 then

Then why is it on 5% upper circuits for the past few days & was Rs 75.95 today

Well there are three reasons for this & in my view ,it would have been great if at least the first should have been mentioned in the October 12,2017 report prepared under the Initiative of the BSE IPF

If the Terms of Reference for preparing the Report was merely to present the Quarterly Performance in any easy to read financial format through tables & graphs & a brief commentary on what’s gone up or down then BSE IPF needs to increase the scope so as to include all publicly available significant information to make the report meaningful

As I keep reiterating at my Value vs Price Fundamental Valuation Workshops that the Key to Fundamental Evaluation is RELIABLE,RELEVANT & TIMELY Information & Data & Good to Great Interpretation thereof read more

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  • Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  • Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  • Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  • Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  • India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  • Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  •  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  • Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  •  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  •    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  • All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  • Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  • Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  • Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end
  • read more

    Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

    Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

    Seems to get bigger & better every time !

    Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

    Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

    Sunday, August 16th, 2015

    Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

    @ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

    Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

    Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

    That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

    Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  ! read more

    Value Protects in Inefficient & Wildly Swinging Scary Stock Markets

    Value will Protect in a Wildly Swinging Market !

    How Terribly Inefficient our Stock Markets are !

    The Share Price Swings in Small & Mid Caps can be equally exhilarating and devastating !…depends !

    And all this happens when the Sensex and Nifty move in a very narrow range !

    Down ! Down ! Down!

    Look at Amtek Auto’s Crash yesterday and continuing today !…all because the Exchanges announced that it will no longer be traded in the F & O Segment 

    It was Rs 141.50 on August 17,2015.Yesterday August 19,2015 it crashed  by nearly 40% and Rs 50 to hit a low of  Rs 78 before closing at Rs 89 !

    And this morning August 20,2015  it crashed another 40% to a low of Rs 50.70 before now recovering to Rs 67 levels !  

    So the fall in three days from a High of Rs 141.50 to a low of Rs 50.70 is 64% erosion of market cap  from Rs 3100 crs to Rs 1100 crs in just one big Breath ! with High Volumes but low Delivery %….SCARY !

    And this is a Company where the Promoters Dhams & Their Companies own 48.98%,FPIs like Goldman Sachs & Macquarie hold 18.83%,Domestic Institutions like LIC hold 16.47% as on June 30,2015.

    There were over 46000 shareholders on this date.Spare a thought for them !…and for those who were long in F & O !

    …and Spare a Curse for those Broking Houses and FPIs who recommended this Scrip !

    Did not all know that the Group is struggling with over Rs 25000 crs in debt !….Wise after the Event ! 

     

    Date

    Open

    High

    Low

    Close

    WAP

    No. of 
    Shares

    No. of 
    Trades

    Total Turnover

    % Deli. Qty to Traded Qty

    17/08/15

    135.00

    141.50

    127.55

    133.10

    133.54

    11,27,928

    15,415

    15,06,28,023

    17.63

    18/08/15

    133.25

    134.25

    127.40

    128.55

    129.54

    5,32,507

    5,649

    6,89,83,199

    23.42

    19/08/15

    126.90

    126.90

    78.00

    89.00

    100.86

    35,47,065

    26,846

    35,77,46,778

    36.40

    Look at Stampede Capital  !

    Rs 650 two days ago after an all time high of Rs 800 on August 6,2015 and down on two consecutive lower circuits of 20% yesterday at Rs 494 and even today to Rs 406 on BSE !….CRAZY !…and SCARY!….just over 2700 shareholders,one being Superstar Amitabh Bacchan (entered a year and a half ago picking up One Cr shares at Rs 88 & similar at  Rs 110 levels), at June 30,2015 in what is clearly a highly controlled scrip

    Look at Ansal Buildwell ! Big Up & Down Swings in three days ! 

    Clearly Insider trading Involved or can the long positions be defended as aggressive risk taking based in favourable anticipation of a Supreme Court Judgement that was announced yesterday on the Ansal Brothers for the Uphaar Cinema Hall Tragedy that took 59 lives 18 years ago in a devastating Fire !

    On August 17,2015 the Share Price was Rs 123.On August 18,2015,just a day before Supreme Court Order the Price flared to Rs 148.30.Yesterday it closed up on upper circuit at Rs 163.10 ! as Supreme Court announced merely a Fine of Rs 60 crores on the Brothers and no Jail Sentence !….and today it’s on lower circuit at Rs 146.80 nearing noon !…and the rise was being justified as Market Cap just @ Rs 100 crs and land bank value worth Rs 10000 crs !       read more

    Super ! 23 Participants with 40 Stock Selections for 2015 in the TAP GAP Poser

    Super ! 23 Participants with 40 Stock Selections for 2015 in the TAP GAP Poser

    TAP GAP Poser End 2014 ~Which Indian Company Will Be A Big Share Price Winner In 2015?
    December 15th, 2014

    I shall shortly pick a gauravblog hamper Winner or maybe two where I see maximum gain potential in 2015 from the following

    Participant wise

    Sr No

    Participant

    Recommendation

    Date of Recommendation

    Price in Rs when recommended

    1

    Sumit Khanna

    Subros

    15.12.2014

    67.85

    PTC India Financial Services Ltd

    17.12.2014

    56.4

    2

    Jigam Gandhi

    Wendt India

    15.12.2014

    2000

    3

    Sandeep Gahandule

    Nathbiogene

    16.12.2014

    130.55

    Prima Plastic

    17.12.2014

    56

    JM Financial

    18.12.2014

    47.6

    4

    Bhaskar

    IPCA Labs

    16.12.2014

    723.55

    5

    Nitin

    Ajanta Pharma

    16.12.2014

    2528.65

    Atul Auto

    16.12.2014

    601

    6

    Anand

    Raj Rayon

    17.12.2014

    0.66

    Jubilant Life Sciences

    30.12.2014

    119.95

    7

    Prasad

    Nbcc

    18.12.2014

    792.05

    Capital First

    30.12.2014

    353.4

    TV Today

    30.12.2014

    215.2

    8

    Rohit

     Adani Enterprises

    20.12.2014

    452.05

    9

    Prasad Shetty

    Multibase

    21.12.2014

    227.9

    10

    Kushal Shah

    MCX

    22.12.2014

    838.95

    Jet Airways

    22.12.2014

    389.7

    11

    Rajan

    Motherson Sumi Systems

    22.12.2014

    440.2

    12

    Hemant

    NETWORK 18

    22.12.2014

    66

    Intellect Design

    22.12.2014

    75.6

    Pipavav Defence

    22.12.2014

    39.75

    13

    Raj

    Odyssey Technologies

    22.12.2014

    33.65

    14

    Shiva

    Granules India

    23.12.2014

    777

    Mayur Uniquoters

    23.12.2014

    415.4

    SpiceJet

    23.12.2014

    19.3

    15

    Abhay Tewari

    Suzlon Energy

    23.12.2014

    13.45

    16

    Pushkar Prasad

    Freshtrop Fruits

    24.12.2014

    115.9

    17

    Dhiren

    Tata Sponge

    26.12.2014

    680

    18

    N Sri

    Deccan Gold Mine

    28.12.2014

    42.95

    19

    Sameer

    Spicejet

    30.12.2014

    17.95

    Deccan Gold Mine

    30.12.2014

    44

    Muthoot Capital Services

    30.12.2014

    207.15

    20

    Shahzad V

    Engineers India Ltd

    31.12.2014

    229.75

    AkzoNobel

    31.12.2014

    1384.1

    Aries Agro

    31.12.2014

    117.4

    21

    Kiran

    Vidhi Dyestuffs

    31.12.2014

    17.16

    22

    Vishal Kejriwal

    CCL Products

    1.1.2015

    170.95

    Oriental Carbon Chemical Ltd

    1.1.2015

    361.55

    Hinduja Global Solutions Ltd

    1.1.2015

    631.75

    23

    Rudra Tandan

    Ram Ratna Wires

    2.1.2015

    48

    Foseco

    2.1.2015

    1227.55

    Alphabetical Scripwise

    Sr No. Scrip Recommended for 2015 Price in Rs when recommended Participant
    1 Adani Enterprise 452.05 Rohit
    2 Ajanta Pharma 2528.65 Nitin
    3 Akzo Nobel 1384.1 Shahzad V
    4 Aries Agro 117.4 Shahzad V
    5 Atul Auto 601 Nitin
    6 CCL Products 170.95 Vishal Kejriwal
    7 Capital First 353.4 Prasad
    8 Deccan Gold 42.95 N Sri
    9 Deccan Gold 44 Sameer
    10 Engineers Ind 229.75 Shahzad V
    11 Foseco India 1227.55 Rudra Tandan
    12 Freshtrop Fruit 115.9 Pushkar Prasad
    13 Granules India 777 Shiva
    14 Hinduja Global 631.75 Vishal Kejriwal
    15 Intellect Design Arena 75.6 Hemant
    16 Ipca Labs 723.55 Bhaskar
    17 JM Financial 47.6 Sandeep Gahandule
    18 Jet Airways 389.7 Kushal Shah
    19 Jubilant Life 119.95 Anand
    20 MCX India 838.95 Kushal Shah
    21 Mayur Uniquoter 415.4 Shiva
    22 Motherson Sumi 440.2 Rajan
    23 Multibase India 227.9 Prasad Shetty
    24 Muthoot Cap 207.15 Sameer
    25 NBCC 792.05 Prasad
    26 Nath Bio-Genes 130.55 Sandeep Gahandule
    27 Network 18 66 Hemant
    28 Odyssey Technologies 33.65 Raj
    29 Oriental Carbon 361.55 Vishal Kejriwal
    30 PTC India Financial Services 56.4 Sumit Khanna
    31 Pipavav Defence 39.75 Hemant
    32 Prima Plastics 56 Sandeep Gahandule
    33 Raj Rayon Ind 0.66 Anand
    34 Ram Ratna Wires 48 Rudra Tandan
    35 SpiceJet 17.95 Sameer
    36 SpiceJet 19.3 Shiva
    37 Subros 67.85 Sumit Khanna
    38 Suzlon Energy 13.45 Abhay Tewari
    39 TV TodayNetwork 215.2 Prasad
    40 Tata Sponge 680 Dhiren
    41 Vidhi Dyestuffs 17.16 Kiran
    42 Wendt 2000 Jigam Gandhi

    Note :

    1. Sandeep Gahandule who just won the hamper for Alphageo’s spectacular 720% run in 2014 has contributed three selections for 2015 this time too
    2. Anand,who ran neck to neck with Sandeep till November 2014,when his low priced Rs 7 YBrant  was up against Alphageo has yet again given one really low priced selection Raj Rayon of just 66 paise !
    3. Deccan Gold & Spicejet occur twice as they constitute selections from two different participants
    4. Prices at which Recommended have either been provided by the Participant when making the Reco and reflect the current market price at the time or where they have not stated the price,the last price when they made the reco has been sourced from the BSE & NSE
    5. Most have not given targets for 2015 Selections but the four selections that have been given targets and all are  over 100% + except one,are as follows : Freshtop Fruits Rs 250,PTC India Financial Services Rs 90,Subros Rs 150 and Tata Sponge Rs 1500+
    6. Adani Group finds representation but none from the Ambani Groups ~ perhaps realisation that Reliance Ind has been a losing 5 year Investment thus far and ADAG Companies have struggled
    7. Tata Sponge is the lone entry from the Tata Group.
    8. Media and Aviation have two each in Network 18 and TV Today and Jet Airways & Spicejet respectively
    9. Pharma & Auto Ancilliaries & NBFCs &  IT  & Speciality & Commodity Chemical Sectors are well represented
    10. Can see a few potential turnaround selections as well as a few that have already run up huge in 2014
    11. Tea & Coffee Beverages & Renewable Energy & Defence are represented but none from direct Power,Telecom or Real Estate or Retail
    12. No Bank & no Oil & Gas Major  & No visible Large Cap ! but Three Selections are also traded in the Derivatives Segment,namely,Adani Enterprise,Engineers India & Motherson Sumi

    Going to be an interesting few days filtering all the above

    TVS Motors @ Rs 255 ~ DIIs Sell Cheap for FIIs to Reap!? Orchestrated Sell Off !?

    Check this latest interesting situation posted in the SCRIP STANDPOINT Module on  my company’s website

    TVS Motors @ Rs 255 ~ DIIs Sell Cheap for FIIs to Reap!? Why !? 

    Sundaram Clayton Promoted ,TVS Motors caught our Eye as it has been recording Highs since the beginning of 2014 !

    Wanted to conclude whether this has been a superb Fundamental Run that can sustain into 2015 ~It’s given a 300+% return moving up from a Low of Rs 64 in January 2014 to a High in the Week of Rs 264 

    But what was revealed is worrying  and has raised Corporate Governance & Insider Trading Questions that need to be addressed !

    Non Promoter Indian Institutions & Mutual Funds have been selling and FIIs have been buying !

    ….the former sold Cheap for the latter to Reap !

    So here’s the Obvious Question !

    Why were the Fund Managers of Indian Biggies,Reliance & ICICI MFs and LIC selling Huge and Cheap at Rs 75 levels from January 2014 !?….when the Share Price has more than tripled in the year till date ! ?

    Was this  just one of those things that happen and just an error in fundamental judgement ! ? or an orchestrated play !?

    Don’t you think that when huge quantities of  a well known company are offloaded there has to be a strong fundamental justification to do so…was there !?  

    From 46 FIIs at December 31,2013 the number jumped to 64,84 and 95 at the end of March,June & September 2014 respectively…FII HSBC Bank Mauritius now emerges in the 1% and over Equity Stake Shareholder Group and is the largest FII shareholder   

    (in %) Sep-14 Jun-14 Mar-14
    Promoter 57.4 57.4 57.4
    FII 11.64 8.77 5.3
    DII 11.83 14.48 16.86
    Others 19.13 19.35 20.44
    Total 100 100 100

    Have a Look 

    Major Non Promoters holding above 1% stake in the company

                                                                 Mar-14

                                Jun-14                   Sep-14
    Name No. Of Shares % Stake No. Of Shares % Stake No. Of Shares % Stake
    Reliance Capital Trustee Company Ltd

    41198970

    8.67

    36274885

    7.64

    30254679

    6.37

    Life Insurance
    Corporation of India

    18440769

    3.88

    12240478

    2.58

    8437121

    1.78

    TVS Motor Harita Employees Welfare Foundation Pvt Ltd in trust for TVS Motor Foundation

    9433000

    1.99

    9433000

    1.99

    9433000

    1.99

    Tree Line Asia 
    Master Fund (Singapore)

    6000000

    1.26

    6000000

    1.26

    6000000

    1.26

    ICICI Prudential 
    Life Insurance Company Ltd

    5120655

    1.08

    HSBC Bank 
    (Mauritius Ltd)

    8264519

    1.74

    Total

    80193394

    16.88

    63948363

    13.46

    62389319

    13.13

     

    Small Investors need to be protected either directly or through their trust in Mutual Fund Schemes that invest on their behalf…they cannot be shorted by a Fund selling off an asset holding for far less than it turns out to be for in the same year as it affects the NAV of the Fund…and if this happens repeatedly then there is certainly more than meets the eye !…question is was this an orchestrated sell off  and therefore deliberate and vested ?

    Not not gone too deep into fundamentally valuing TVS Motors but with Share Price at Rs 255 giving a PE Multiple of 45+ on an FY 14 EPS of Rs 5.5 on a FV Rs 1 Share, don’t nearly need to do this !

    In my View the above that has played out in 2014 till date is beyond fundamentals !   

    ….and needs to be investigated by SEBI,IRDA and AMFI and even BSE & NSE  

    What’s Integrity to an Opportunity !?    read more