Scooters India up @ Rs 75~BSE IPF Oct 2017 Report farcical?

Scooters India up @ Rs 75~You may have shunned it on reading the Oct 12, 2017 BSE Investor Protection Fund (BSE IPF) Commissioned Report

Why have I questioned it as farcical?

Well…who selects which Company should be covered in such Reports by the BSE IPF ? For in Scooters India the Performance really is secondary at this juncture,even though their Vikram Three Wheelers have got a market share in UP at least where they are manufactured near Lucknow  ~ what is moot is the proposed disinvestment & the assets,including land of 125 acres, that goes with the company  ~ Valuation is essentially ultimately a factor of Earnings &/or Net Assets

The Point is that any Report that the BSE IPF commissions to serve the Investors ,needs to be impactful & serve the purpose for which it has been commissioned

Their Initiative of course deserves applause & support

It is not,of course the job of  the Preparer to give a View to Buy or Hold or Sell the Scrip being commented on & their statement & disclaimer covers this in the report.They have rightly stated that this is not a recommendation & the purpose is to only make available publicly information to the readers in an easy to read format

As an illustration take this October 12,2017 Report on Scooters India covering the June FY 18 Quarter Overview

http://www.bseindia.com/download/Research_Report/Report/505141/2017-18/Scooters%20India%20Ltd.pdf

The Performance was clearly sub par & any reader would not have looked to seriously consider Scooters India in their portfolio…more so as it was also,I believe, in the double margin XT category then on the BSE…in fact if any held it,they may have considered to dispose at the Price levels of Rs 41 then

Then why is it on 5% upper circuits for the past few days & was Rs 75.95 today

Well there are three reasons for this & in my view ,it would have been great if at least the first should have been mentioned in the October 12,2017 report prepared under the Initiative of the BSE IPF

If the Terms of Reference for preparing the Report was merely to present the Quarterly Performance in any easy to read financial format through tables & graphs & a brief commentary on what’s gone up or down then BSE IPF needs to increase the scope so as to include all publicly available significant information to make the report meaningful

As I keep reiterating at my Value vs Price Fundamental Valuation Workshops that the Key to Fundamental Evaluation is RELIABLE,RELEVANT & TIMELY Information & Data & Good to Great Interpretation thereof

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Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  1. Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  2. Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  3. Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  4. Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  5. India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  6. Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  7.  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  8. Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  9.  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  10.    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  11. All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  12. Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  13. Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  14. Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end

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Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

Seems to get bigger & better every time !

Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

Sunday, August 16th, 2015

Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

@ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  !

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Value Protects in Inefficient & Wildly Swinging Scary Stock Markets

Value will Protect in a Wildly Swinging Market !

How Terribly Inefficient our Stock Markets are !

The Share Price Swings in Small & Mid Caps can be equally exhilarating and devastating !…depends !

And all this happens when the Sensex and Nifty move in a very narrow range !

Down ! Down ! Down!

Look at Amtek Auto’s Crash yesterday and continuing today !…all because the Exchanges announced that it will no longer be traded in the F & O Segment 

It was Rs 141.50 on August 17,2015.Yesterday August 19,2015 it crashed  by nearly 40% and Rs 50 to hit a low of  Rs 78 before closing at Rs 89 !

And this morning August 20,2015  it crashed another 40% to a low of Rs 50.70 before now recovering to Rs 67 levels !  

So the fall in three days from a High of Rs 141.50 to a low of Rs 50.70 is 64% erosion of market cap  from Rs 3100 crs to Rs 1100 crs in just one big Breath ! with High Volumes but low Delivery %….SCARY !

And this is a Company where the Promoters Dhams & Their Companies own 48.98%,FPIs like Goldman Sachs & Macquarie hold 18.83%,Domestic Institutions like LIC hold 16.47% as on June 30,2015.

There were over 46000 shareholders on this date.Spare a thought for them !…and for those who were long in F & O !

…and Spare a Curse for those Broking Houses and FPIs who recommended this Scrip !

Did not all know that the Group is struggling with over Rs 25000 crs in debt !….Wise after the Event ! 

 

Date

Open

High

Low

Close

WAP

No. of 
Shares

No. of 
Trades

Total Turnover

% Deli. Qty to Traded Qty

17/08/15

135.00

141.50

127.55

133.10

133.54

11,27,928

15,415

15,06,28,023

17.63

18/08/15

133.25

134.25

127.40

128.55

129.54

5,32,507

5,649

6,89,83,199

23.42

19/08/15

126.90

126.90

78.00

89.00

100.86

35,47,065

26,846

35,77,46,778

36.40

Look at Stampede Capital  !

Rs 650 two days ago after an all time high of Rs 800 on August 6,2015 and down on two consecutive lower circuits of 20% yesterday at Rs 494 and even today to Rs 406 on BSE !….CRAZY !…and SCARY!….just over 2700 shareholders,one being Superstar Amitabh Bacchan (entered a year and a half ago picking up One Cr shares at Rs 88 & similar at  Rs 110 levels), at June 30,2015 in what is clearly a highly controlled scrip

Look at Ansal Buildwell ! Big Up & Down Swings in three days ! 

Clearly Insider trading Involved or can the long positions be defended as aggressive risk taking based in favourable anticipation of a Supreme Court Judgement that was announced yesterday on the Ansal Brothers for the Uphaar Cinema Hall Tragedy that took 59 lives 18 years ago in a devastating Fire !

On August 17,2015 the Share Price was Rs 123.On August 18,2015,just a day before Supreme Court Order the Price flared to Rs 148.30.Yesterday it closed up on upper circuit at Rs 163.10 ! as Supreme Court announced merely a Fine of Rs 60 crores on the Brothers and no Jail Sentence !….and today it’s on lower circuit at Rs 146.80 nearing noon !…and the rise was being justified as Market Cap just @ Rs 100 crs and land bank value worth Rs 10000 crs !      

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Super ! 23 Participants with 40 Stock Selections for 2015 in the TAP GAP Poser

Super ! 23 Participants with 40 Stock Selections for 2015 in the TAP GAP Poser

TAP GAP Poser End 2014 ~Which Indian Company Will Be A Big Share Price Winner In 2015?
December 15th, 2014

I shall shortly pick a gauravblog hamper Winner or maybe two where I see maximum gain potential in 2015 from the following

Participant wise

Sr No

Participant

Recommendation

Date of Recommendation

Price in Rs when recommended

1

Sumit Khanna

Subros

15.12.2014

67.85

PTC India Financial Services Ltd

17.12.2014

56.4

2

Jigam Gandhi

Wendt India

15.12.2014

2000

3

Sandeep Gahandule

Nathbiogene

16.12.2014

130.55

Prima Plastic

17.12.2014

56

JM Financial

18.12.2014

47.6

4

Bhaskar

IPCA Labs

16.12.2014

723.55

5

Nitin

Ajanta Pharma

16.12.2014

2528.65

Atul Auto

16.12.2014

601

6

Anand

Raj Rayon

17.12.2014

0.66

Jubilant Life Sciences

30.12.2014

119.95

7

Prasad

Nbcc

18.12.2014

792.05

Capital First

30.12.2014

353.4

TV Today

30.12.2014

215.2

8

Rohit

 Adani Enterprises

20.12.2014

452.05

9

Prasad Shetty

Multibase

21.12.2014

227.9

10

Kushal Shah

MCX

22.12.2014

838.95

Jet Airways

22.12.2014

389.7

11

Rajan

Motherson Sumi Systems

22.12.2014

440.2

12

Hemant

NETWORK 18

22.12.2014

66

Intellect Design

22.12.2014

75.6

Pipavav Defence

22.12.2014

39.75

13

Raj

Odyssey Technologies

22.12.2014

33.65

14

Shiva

Granules India

23.12.2014

777

Mayur Uniquoters

23.12.2014

415.4

SpiceJet

23.12.2014

19.3

15

Abhay Tewari

Suzlon Energy

23.12.2014

13.45

16

Pushkar Prasad

Freshtrop Fruits

24.12.2014

115.9

17

Dhiren

Tata Sponge

26.12.2014

680

18

N Sri

Deccan Gold Mine

28.12.2014

42.95

19

Sameer

Spicejet

30.12.2014

17.95

Deccan Gold Mine

30.12.2014

44

Muthoot Capital Services

30.12.2014

207.15

20

Shahzad V

Engineers India Ltd

31.12.2014

229.75

AkzoNobel

31.12.2014

1384.1

Aries Agro

31.12.2014

117.4

21

Kiran

Vidhi Dyestuffs

31.12.2014

17.16

22

Vishal Kejriwal

CCL Products

1.1.2015

170.95

Oriental Carbon Chemical Ltd

1.1.2015

361.55

Hinduja Global Solutions Ltd

1.1.2015

631.75

23

Rudra Tandan

Ram Ratna Wires

2.1.2015

48

Foseco

2.1.2015

1227.55

Alphabetical Scripwise

Sr No. Scrip Recommended for 2015 Price in Rs when recommended Participant
1 Adani Enterprise 452.05 Rohit
2 Ajanta Pharma 2528.65 Nitin
3 Akzo Nobel 1384.1 Shahzad V
4 Aries Agro 117.4 Shahzad V
5 Atul Auto 601 Nitin
6 CCL Products 170.95 Vishal Kejriwal
7 Capital First 353.4 Prasad
8 Deccan Gold 42.95 N Sri
9 Deccan Gold 44 Sameer
10 Engineers Ind 229.75 Shahzad V
11 Foseco India 1227.55 Rudra Tandan
12 Freshtrop Fruit 115.9 Pushkar Prasad
13 Granules India 777 Shiva
14 Hinduja Global 631.75 Vishal Kejriwal
15 Intellect Design Arena 75.6 Hemant
16 Ipca Labs 723.55 Bhaskar
17 JM Financial 47.6 Sandeep Gahandule
18 Jet Airways 389.7 Kushal Shah
19 Jubilant Life 119.95 Anand
20 MCX India 838.95 Kushal Shah
21 Mayur Uniquoter 415.4 Shiva
22 Motherson Sumi 440.2 Rajan
23 Multibase India 227.9 Prasad Shetty
24 Muthoot Cap 207.15 Sameer
25 NBCC 792.05 Prasad
26 Nath Bio-Genes 130.55 Sandeep Gahandule
27 Network 18 66 Hemant
28 Odyssey Technologies 33.65 Raj
29 Oriental Carbon 361.55 Vishal Kejriwal
30 PTC India Financial Services 56.4 Sumit Khanna
31 Pipavav Defence 39.75 Hemant
32 Prima Plastics 56 Sandeep Gahandule
33 Raj Rayon Ind 0.66 Anand
34 Ram Ratna Wires 48 Rudra Tandan
35 SpiceJet 17.95 Sameer
36 SpiceJet 19.3 Shiva
37 Subros 67.85 Sumit Khanna
38 Suzlon Energy 13.45 Abhay Tewari
39 TV TodayNetwork 215.2 Prasad
40 Tata Sponge 680 Dhiren
41 Vidhi Dyestuffs 17.16 Kiran
42 Wendt 2000 Jigam Gandhi

Note :

  1. Sandeep Gahandule who just won the hamper for Alphageo’s spectacular 720% run in 2014 has contributed three selections for 2015 this time too
  2. Anand,who ran neck to neck with Sandeep till November 2014,when his low priced Rs 7 YBrant  was up against Alphageo has yet again given one really low priced selection Raj Rayon of just 66 paise !
  3. Deccan Gold & Spicejet occur twice as they constitute selections from two different participants
  4. Prices at which Recommended have either been provided by the Participant when making the Reco and reflect the current market price at the time or where they have not stated the price,the last price when they made the reco has been sourced from the BSE & NSE
  5. Most have not given targets for 2015 Selections but the four selections that have been given targets and all are  over 100% + except one,are as follows : Freshtop Fruits Rs 250,PTC India Financial Services Rs 90,Subros Rs 150 and Tata Sponge Rs 1500+
  6. Adani Group finds representation but none from the Ambani Groups ~ perhaps realisation that Reliance Ind has been a losing 5 year Investment thus far and ADAG Companies have struggled
  7. Tata Sponge is the lone entry from the Tata Group.
  8. Media and Aviation have two each in Network 18 and TV Today and Jet Airways & Spicejet respectively
  9. Pharma & Auto Ancilliaries & NBFCs &  IT  & Speciality & Commodity Chemical Sectors are well represented
  10. Can see a few potential turnaround selections as well as a few that have already run up huge in 2014
  11. Tea & Coffee Beverages & Renewable Energy & Defence are represented but none from direct Power,Telecom or Real Estate or Retail
  12. No Bank & no Oil & Gas Major  & No visible Large Cap ! but Three Selections are also traded in the Derivatives Segment,namely,Adani Enterprise,Engineers India & Motherson Sumi

Going to be an interesting few days filtering all the above

TVS Motors @ Rs 255 ~ DIIs Sell Cheap for FIIs to Reap!? Orchestrated Sell Off !?

Check this latest interesting situation posted in the SCRIP STANDPOINT Module on  my company’s website

TVS Motors @ Rs 255 ~ DIIs Sell Cheap for FIIs to Reap!? Why !? 

Sundaram Clayton Promoted ,TVS Motors caught our Eye as it has been recording Highs since the beginning of 2014 !

Wanted to conclude whether this has been a superb Fundamental Run that can sustain into 2015 ~It’s given a 300+% return moving up from a Low of Rs 64 in January 2014 to a High in the Week of Rs 264 

But what was revealed is worrying  and has raised Corporate Governance & Insider Trading Questions that need to be addressed !

Non Promoter Indian Institutions & Mutual Funds have been selling and FIIs have been buying !

….the former sold Cheap for the latter to Reap !

So here’s the Obvious Question !

Why were the Fund Managers of Indian Biggies,Reliance & ICICI MFs and LIC selling Huge and Cheap at Rs 75 levels from January 2014 !?….when the Share Price has more than tripled in the year till date ! ?

Was this  just one of those things that happen and just an error in fundamental judgement ! ? or an orchestrated play !?

Don’t you think that when huge quantities of  a well known company are offloaded there has to be a strong fundamental justification to do so…was there !?  

From 46 FIIs at December 31,2013 the number jumped to 64,84 and 95 at the end of March,June & September 2014 respectively…FII HSBC Bank Mauritius now emerges in the 1% and over Equity Stake Shareholder Group and is the largest FII shareholder   

(in %) Sep-14 Jun-14 Mar-14
Promoter 57.4 57.4 57.4
FII 11.64 8.77 5.3
DII 11.83 14.48 16.86
Others 19.13 19.35 20.44
Total 100 100 100

Have a Look 

Major Non Promoters holding above 1% stake in the company

                                                             Mar-14

                            Jun-14                   Sep-14
Name No. Of Shares % Stake No. Of Shares % Stake No. Of Shares % Stake
Reliance Capital Trustee Company Ltd

41198970

8.67

36274885

7.64

30254679

6.37

Life Insurance
Corporation of India

18440769

3.88

12240478

2.58

8437121

1.78

TVS Motor Harita Employees Welfare Foundation Pvt Ltd in trust for TVS Motor Foundation

9433000

1.99

9433000

1.99

9433000

1.99

Tree Line Asia 
Master Fund (Singapore)

6000000

1.26

6000000

1.26

6000000

1.26

ICICI Prudential 
Life Insurance Company Ltd

5120655

1.08

HSBC Bank 
(Mauritius Ltd)

8264519

1.74

Total

80193394

16.88

63948363

13.46

62389319

13.13

 

Small Investors need to be protected either directly or through their trust in Mutual Fund Schemes that invest on their behalf…they cannot be shorted by a Fund selling off an asset holding for far less than it turns out to be for in the same year as it affects the NAV of the Fund…and if this happens repeatedly then there is certainly more than meets the eye !…question is was this an orchestrated sell off  and therefore deliberate and vested ?

Not not gone too deep into fundamentally valuing TVS Motors but with Share Price at Rs 255 giving a PE Multiple of 45+ on an FY 14 EPS of Rs 5.5 on a FV Rs 1 Share, don’t nearly need to do this !

In my View the above that has played out in 2014 till date is beyond fundamentals !   

….and needs to be investigated by SEBI,IRDA and AMFI and even BSE & NSE  

What’s Integrity to an Opportunity !?   

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