Looooooooong Full House Saturday Equity Mumbai Workshop Sept 14 2019

It was a looooooooong,should have held it over two days,  Full House Equity Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,September 14,2019 with a whole spectrum of smart participants that made for really invigorating interaction ~they came from Mumbai,Gurgaon & Pune ~ from young upwardly mobile grads & post grads from top ranked Management Institutes in India,UK (London) & USA(Harvard) to ‘ well tuned in’ professionals from the IT ,Consultancy,Broking,Corporate & Banking Sectors to veteran high networth investors . We commenced at 9.30 am & concluded well beyond 7.30 pm ~ 🙂 should have arranged dinner too

Thank you Guys !

Here are a few candid clicks from the Workshop :

The Coverage was expansive & the Interaction from Participants very intelligent & which opened out many threads that we examined with anecdotal support . When analysing a company ,they asked what is “Non Negotiable” &  “How to have Foresight as on Hindsight we are always right”

Really a lot was covered ,some of which is below  :

  • Macros through :
  1. Examining the Equity Table’s four legs of Valuation,Liquidity,Momentum & Sentiment & the Impact of FPI Flows ~ when Valuation,which should be the strongest leg,sometimes takes a back seat as Liquidity or even a lack of it drives the momentum & sentiment
  2.  Not getting Seduced by any Bounce at  Friday closing Sensex 37385 & Nifty 11076 Levels as Caution is strongly indicated by domestic & overseas economy & geo-political headwinds
  3. Negative Interest Rates Era vs the Magic of Compounding in such meltdowns
  4. Sensex & Earnings & Market Cap & low GDP growth Dynamics on Levels & Valuations ~ Past,Present & Forward & why downside risk remains wide open while the upside appears capped for now ~ we referred to 1991/92 abnormally high Sensex PE pre Harshad Mehta Scam exposure & the High PE in 2000 with Ketan Parekh was in action & where the markets were clearing running ahead of fundamentals by huge margins~ we referred to the Sensex PE of just 6 in the late 1980s when VP Singh was the PM 1988~ we covered Mkt Cap/GDP Highs pre Lehman collapse in 2007/8 & the levels now
  5. Fx Reserves  & Exchange Rate Risk &  the Risk of increasing Sovereign Debt as planned by Government ~ How our Rupee has always had a South trajectory,except when it soared from Rs 49 to the US $ to Rs 39 to the US $ creating havoc especially in the Diamond Sector
  6. Why Inversely co-related Gold & US $ are moving up together instead
  7. Turm-Oil & Impact on Fiscal Deficit & Rupee  like last happened in 2007/8( On Saturday at the workshop we were not yet clued in to the Drone Attack on the Oil Refinery in Saudi Arabia that saw Oil Prices dangerously soar 20% in spot) ~ India is hugely dependent on Oil Imports
  8. Interest & Inflation rates
  9. Trump ~ Not sure if he’s a macro or micro factor !
  • Micros through many companies  & sector dynamics covering :
  1. Checklist on how to Smartly & Effectively & thus Quickly Read a voluminous Annual Report
  2. Our Five Steps for Evaluating a Company for Investment
  3. Impact on the Financial Statements in Scenarios like Buy Back,Rights Issues,Fictitious Sales,RBI issuing a divergence on Provisioning for NPAs,non linear jump in Sales Realisations,5 G Spectrum Fees,Permanent Diminution in Investments,Monetising Assets & Depreciation of the Rupee
  4. Quick Brief on Absolute & Relative Valuation & how to prepare a quick Valuation Grid from the Annual Report, Market Price Trends & Shareholding
  5. Why Liquidity more than Profitability is the ‘Circle of Life’  for a Company as viewed through the lens of the Cash Flow Statement dervived from the Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss Ac & that distinguishes operating,financing & investing flows
  6. Corporate Governance Issues on inadequate Disclosure or Non Disclosure, Incorrect & questionable Accounting Treatment & Lack of Transparency &  irresponsible (deliberate?)  Management utterances  that give a leg to Insider Trading & huge Profits through  Derivatives Play
  7. Courage & Conviction Promoter or Institutional recent Buying in Vodafone,Yes Bank,I B Real Estate & Tata Motors & seeing more wealth destruction since in these   
  8. Basis for Disclaimer of Opinion by the Auditor of Reliance Infrastructure & what holds out some hope
  9. Intangibles,Investments & Impairments
  10. Reliance Industries’s Enterprise Value,Revenue Segments Potential,Spin offs of the Jio Telecom Infra into two trusts, Aramco’s 20% stake being negotiated in the Refining,Petroleum Retailing & Petrochemicals Business that should lead to further demerger & reviving & scaling the Gas Exploration Operations
  11. How Defaults & Corporate Governance Issues decimated into or near oblivion Eros,Cox & Kings,ManPasand,Tree House Education,Satyam,Jet Airways,Kingfisher & Talwalkars & is there any hope of operational & share price recovery with Asset values holding out some hope in a few ~ How Clearly the Statutory Auditors & Credit Rating Agencies were negligent or intentionally turned a blind eye in many cases
  12. Huge Potential Outlay of the ‘Nal sey Jal’ Scheme of the Government & the new Jal Shakti Ministry focus that should benefit many companies if the implementation & execution is as noteworthy as the intent
  13. How IndAs 115 continues to affect Bombay Dyeing
  14. How Exchanges continue to accept outright untrue or tepid clarifications from Companies
  15. Reference to Investment Gurus & Living Legends Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch Approaches & Success
  16.  Coverage of a few sectors like Defence, Hydrocarbons,Broking,Telecom,Real Estate,NBFCs,Banks & Automobiles & Disruption that’s in play in many
  17. Consolidation & Capitalisation of PSU Banks & the controversial Acquisition of Laxmi Vilas Bank by I B Housing Finance pending RBI approval
  18. Common Investor Mistakes

The next Equity Workshop is scheduled  pre-Diwali for Saturday ,October 19,2019 & will be announced soon on www.jsalphaa.com & social media

Touched by some warm & constructive feedback from participants :

  • thanks for a lovely interactive session…”
  • “enjoyed your session yday”
  • “it was great to meet again & reskill to be better prepared for opportunities which would arise”
  • “Thanks for being the Enabler,the last few days have been very encouraging”
  • “Cover the Scenarios Exercise more with Investor focus than just on Accounting Impact & take in a few Annual Reports before Lunch”  

😆 & I swear I did not pay for these ones !

  • ” You are very good at what you do,comes naturally to you,with a vastness of the subject to cover you did justice to cover the best you could with your insights and experience of all the treasures of knowledge,you are an encyclopedia of the subject with case studies,which is the best way of teaching, sharing & learning according to me,the various industries that you know of,the processes & the products,the promoters & the pitfalls,the auditors & the audited,you can understand in the readings the stated & the unstated,intention & intended,you truly personify_the integration of intellect with instinct_”   
  • “Whoever missed this one, missed learning a radical way to look at balance sheets. Very practically in a few minutes you can strip away the padding and bullshit that promoters hide their sins behind. If the stock market’s motto or rather rider has always been caveat emptor or buyer beware, Gaurav’s lessons in Analysis would ensure that a “fool and his money are not soon parted” for when emotions like fear and greed coupled with ignorance seize us even the wisest are prone to behave like fools. Especially the wisest!”
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    Indiabulls Ventures Ltd at Rs 33~ Up 100% in a month ~ More in Store?

    Indiabulls Ventures Ltd at Rs 33~ Up 100% in a month ~ More in Store? ~ 52 Week high was Rs 39+ a year ago in July 2015 & 52 Week Low was Rs 13 this April 2016

    The Market Cap from @ Rs 500 crs a month ago is now kissing Rs 1000 crs

    It was earlier called Indiabulls Securities Ltd

    The uptick has been brilliant in quick time & the writing has been on the wall..read that as Company Notifications on the BSE & NSE in the past few months

    May 13,2016 ~ Granting of 9.5 Million Stock Options at an exercise price of Rs 16(current price at the time) under the ESOS 2009

    June 15,2016 ~ Board Approval of a Preferential Issue of  58.3 m Convertible Warrants to Promoters & CEO at exercise price of Rs 19.75

    June 20,2016 ~ EGM Notice for July 15,2016 to pass the Preferential Issue as above & SALE OF INVESTMENT 

    July 2,2016 ~ Granting of 19.7 M Stock Options at an exercise price of Rs 24.15(price a few days ago) under ESOSs 2008 & 2009

    So what’s the Big Deal ?

    Big Deal is being planned to happen & that’s disclosed in the June 20,2016 Notification of SALE OF INVESTMENT for improving liquidity & reduction of debt purpose which is Item No 2 and relevant part extracted as below

    “….to sell upto 100% of shares held by Indiabulls Distribution Services Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“IDSL”), in India Land and Properties Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of IDSL, on the terms and conditions, including the consideration, which shall be more than the amount invested by IDSL, in such shares, as the Board may finalize” 

    This actually is the Sale of One Indiabulls Park,Ambattur,Chennai which was bought in November 2014 at @ Rs 600 crs from Madrid Based NRI Investor Harish Fabiani (he’s also invested in Edelweiss & Indiabulls Group Companies + others)

    FY 15 Consolidated Accounts as on March 31,2015

    Consolidated FY 15 Accounts of Indiabulls Ventures Ltd shows Net Fixed Tangible Assets at Rs 550 crs  of which 77% is this Property reflected  with a aggregate value of Rs 426 crs ~ Rs 320 crs for the Building + Rs 15 crs for Furniture + Rs 91 crs for Plant & Machinery

    Long Term Debt at March 31,2015 was Rs 331 crs ,all of which relating to the One Indiabull Park Property ~ 150 crs 10 year (monthly EMI) Lease Rental Discounting Facility + Rs 185 crs 5 year Loan Against Property

    FY 15 also shows Goodwill on Consolidation of Rs 109 crs,most of which is related to this property acquisition by subsidiaries

    FY 16 Consolidated Accounts as on March 31,2016 reveal : read more

    Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

    Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

    Seems to get bigger & better every time !

    Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

    Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

    Sunday, August 16th, 2015

    Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

    @ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

    Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

    Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

    That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

    Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  ! read more

    Edelweiss at 52 Week High Levels of Rs 60+ ~ What is Broking!?

    Edelweiss at 52 Week High Levels of Rs 60+ ~ What is Broking!?  ….BSE showed over 8 lakh shares volume today and price stability at @ Rs 61

    Edelweiss ~ A Royal Flower in the Swiss Alps or a Lovely Classic Song from The Sound of Music or just another Indian Broking & Financial Firm !?

    It’s a No Brainer that Heady Market Day spells  great times for Broking Firms or Groups

    Edelweiss has seen a High of Rs 1600 + in 2007 on a FV Rs 5 share….then came a split to FV Rs 1 in 2010 and a 1:1 Bonus Issue  in August 2010….so the high gets adjusted to Rs 160+

    First many Employees,including Excustive Director Himanshu Kaji took the ESOP at Rs 33 in April 2014….then last week on June 12,2014 Rakesh Jhunjhunwala picked up One Crore Shares at Rs 55 in a BSE Deal with Greater Pacific Capital (GPC) Mauritius I & III LLC selling off and exiting completely now their eight and a half year stake after a part exit in 2010

    Promoters Rashesh  Shah & Others held 37.15% of the Equity of Rs 76.90 crs held by nearly 131000 Shareholders at March 31,2014….of this Promoter holding 5.66 % are pledged or encumbered (2.10% of Total Equity)

    FIIs held 22.58% of the Equity on March 31,2014.This needs to be adjusted for the GPC Mauritius Sale in June 2014…However in a May 17,2014 Meeting the Board has approved FII holding cap to be increased from 28% to 40% 

    Here are the FY 14 Results….Consolidated Topline  was Rs 2534 crs with Bottomline at Rs 220 crs….EPS was Rs 2.86.Networth was Rs 2729 crs with Reserves at Rs 2657 crs and Investment in Company’s Own Shares deducted from Share Capital & Premium….this Investment is through Rs 160.81 crs lend to Employees Trusts which has been used to buy Shares for later alottment under ESOP…The Book Value is Rs 35.5

    Relative Valuations at Share Price of Rs 61 give a PE of 21 and a PBV of 1.7

    In April the  board approved a buyback from the Open Market upto Rs 45/share and an aggregate of Rs 145 crs….This Buy Back commenced on May 5,2014

    The Own Capital Employed at March 31,2014 was Rs 2729 crs  with most of it deployed in Credit Activity that included Retail Finance

    Segmentation is into 4 Revenue Streams ~ Credit incl Retail Finance most of it in Housing Finance,Commodities,Financial Markets including Asset Management & Life Insurance….Most of the Revenues ,Rs 1885 crs to be specific ,are from Capital or Fund Based Business….Finance Costs were Rs 1540 crs in FY 14 read more

    Emkay Global @ Rs 17 in trouble as NSE rejects application to annul trades of October 5 2012

    Emkay Global @ Rs 17 in trouble as NSE rejects application to annul trades of October 5 2012

    On October 5,2012 Emkay Global suffered a Loss of Rs 51 crs on squaring up trades that were executed from a Templeton order  punched in by a dealer erroneously in  more quantum than it should have been ~ the order was of a value of Rs 17 lakhs but the dealer instead punched in 17 lakhs nos  and the order value shot to nearly a Rs 1000 crs ! of which nearly Rs 700 crs was executed before the mistake was discovered and thus had to be squared off

    NSE after an extensive investigation just rejected Emkay’s application to cancel all the relevant Trades of October 5,2012 early morning as there was material error in punching

    Emkay has also send a notice to the BSE as below

    “We are in receipt of NSE letter dated April 30, 2013 on May 01, 2013 late in the evening regarding the decision of the Relevant Authority of NSE on the application made by us for the annulment of the error trade of October 5, 2012. The Relevant Authority of NSE has denied our application for annulment of trades arising out of a clearly erroneous entry of sale order on October 05, 2012. The Company is considering various legal course of action including challenging the decision in exercise of its statutory right to appeal.”.’

    Emkay is quoted at Rs 17 (FV Rs 10) giving a market cap of Rs 41 crs ~ Promoters hold 73.24%

    In March/April 2006 it came out with a Rs 75 crs IPO offerring 62.50 lakhs shares in the price bad of Rs 100 to Rs 120 ~ and the following year 2007/8 was their best with Profit of Rs 23.50 crs ~ since then the next four Financial Years  dragged down a loss in 2008/9 followed by Rs 8 crs each profit in the following years and again drifted to a marginal loss in FY 11/12

    Current Book Value is Rs 50+ with Networth at Rs 134 crs of which Equity is Rs 24+ crs

    Clearly Rs 51 crs loss will be a huge setback to Emkay ~ destabilising their operations big time in very competitive times ~ Emkay will surely appeal

    Several years ago the Emkay Promoters had sought a meeting with me as one of their Broking Clients and my Advisory one had made a 600% + gains on his Portfolio inside a year and they wanted to meet with the guy whose advice did this ! ~ they had only recently set up a Research Team taking several analysts from a leading stock market media  house  and they wanted to tie up with me  ~ did not work out as I must have quoted too high I suppose !

    …and it’s sad luck that Emkay did this deal on NSE and not BSE for BSE may just have helped them out given it’s past track record for doing so when during Broker Dominated Boards, EDs and Presidents have had to resign for malpractices ~ like opening the Exchange in the middle of the night to insert trades ! or else some brokers would have gone bankrupt on their positions ! read more

    IndiaBulls Group is BILKING INDIA say Veritas ! ~ There’s more than Meets the Eyes on both sides !

    IndiaBulls Group is BILKING INDIA say Veritas ! ~ There’s more than Meets the Eyes on both sides ! 

    Was prompted by an editor of a leading Media Financial Publication for my views on the controversial research reports generated by Veritas,Canada on Listed Indian Companies

    Veritas is a Bear on IndiaBulls 

    Veritas,Canada released a Damning Research Report dated August 1,2012 on the IndiaBulls Group controversially titled BILKING INDIA !  ~ specifically covering three Companies IndiaBulls Real Estate at Rs 55.85,IndiaBulls Power at Rs 12.80 and IndiaBulls Financial Services at Rs 227.30

    BILKING is a strong word ~ Obtain or withold Money by deceit or without justification,cheat or defraud ~ obtain money fradulently

    This is My Immediate Take on The Veritas Research Report Controversy on the Indiabulls Group

    On Veritas Motives

    1. Why do they come up with only Sell Reports ? ~ and that too just a hand full of companies have been covered in the past year ! ~ Are these Reports generated to create Big Bonanza through F & O Short Selling Quickies ~Yes,Veritas and Mr Neeraj Monga ! Why are there no Buy Reports !? ~ Nothing Worth Buying in India !? or you want Clients to make Monies only by Selling Off or Short Selling or Saving them from making the Investment! ?
    2. In my view this is unfair and unethical especially to other Clients already on the rolls ~ by agreeing to delay the IndiaBulls Report by one day just to tempt Altima,London to sign on for US $ 50000 a year for Research Reports generated by you so that they can act on the Report before it is issued for wider viewership ~ a question that follows is this ~ if these reports are a paid service then what does Mr Monga mean that he will delay the issue of the Report by one day !? what is he implying ? will he be issuing or leaking the report free ! to a wide audience who are not paying clients? ~ wonder if this borders on insider Trading !

    On IndiaBulls Strong Reaction

    1.  In initiating Criminal action,IndiaBulls is sending out a Strong Threatening & Menacing Message ~ “Don’t Mess with Us!”  ~ perhaps only IndiaBulls can do the Messing around !

    Neeraj Monga and Nitin Mangal,the Veritas analysts who have damned the IndiaBulls Group are seen as fearless crusaders by many as also foolish by some and with vested interests by quite a few~ their Motives are under the microscope in writing such a Damning Report ~ Veritas charges Signing up Clients an Annual Fee of US $ 50000 to receive such Reports ~ So Far these guys have damned the Reliance Group especially Reliance Industries and Reliance Communications,DLF and KingFisher ~ Their latest target has been the IndiaBulls Group

    If you follow my blog you will not have to pay a single Dollar ! ~I’ve exposed quite a few Companies,including KingFisher Airlines ~ use the Search Engine to locate such posts

    Check the tagline of my blog  ” In India,Companies may fall sick but promoters rarely do!”

    When I wrote for leading Stock Publications in the past,for the benefit of Lakhs of Investors I have often exposed traunt listed companies and their unethical and fradulent  and manipulative operating and accounting practices~ Of course I’ve been threatened to be sued often until evidence is shown to the Companies and they back off ! ~ Scales and Stakes were in lakhs or a few Crores then unlike now where we are seeing hundreds and thousands of crores of rupees being raised in dubious ways and spend dubiously too ~ This Role of playing Watchdog  is the Responsibility of the Regulators and the Exchanges  ~ Let’s just say that only of late have they been bit by Conscience ! ~ otherwise only the small fry was fried ! ~ also the blatant and shameless rape of Investors by unscrupulous promoters and their network often has strong political patronage ~ and is supported by some in the mainstream  media,broking  and banking world Let me make it Clear though ! ~ I am not a Share Activist ! neither am I associated with any such Activism ! ~ the reason being the prime objective of any analysis I do of Companies in our Capital markets is to see if they merit Investment ~ my job is to make Monies for my Clients by investing in Winners and staying away from Losers or Controversial and Manipulated Companies ~ It’s nothing personal ~ I do not defame Companies ~ don’t really have to as many Promoters effect this Role well themselves ! But What I do do ! is caution readers of my blog on certain companies that I feel may strangle them ! ~ Karuturi Global @ 25 (now 4 ! and was touted by many as a multibagger on big stock channels as Company gave ads on these channels ) or Cranes Software @ 25  (god knows what it’s now)

    What these Veritas Analysts are doing is nothing new ~They are Analysing and Interpreting Financial Statements and Disclosures questioning Controversial & Vulnerable Big Companies Motives and Gameplan in their Operations,especially in Corporate Restructuring Exercises that involve Valuations and Raising of Finance and the myraid structure of related entities involved that benefits from Inflated valuations that are even certified by renowned auditing firms ! ~ remember the infamous Maytas and Satyam Real Estate Valuation Report of Rs 6000+ crs by a Big Four Auditing Firm that was prepared in just one day to facilitate the merger of Maytas into Satyam to fill the hole of an equivalent amount !!! Check my many blogs on this in the category of ‘Satyam ~ The sordid Asatyam Saga’

    Veritas Analysts are Tearing Up the way certain Revenues,Expenses,Assets and Liabilities are presented in the Financial Statements or simply not disclosed properly to reach conclusions that the Company is weaker or not as strong as the Statements Portrays read more