Featured for second year in a row in Outlook Business for Stock Pick of 2016

 

Hey ! Check My Pick for 2016 in  the Special Edition of Outlook Business for December 2015 that features Stock Pickers & their One Pick for 2016 ~ it’s on the stands now and  is free online on the above link

Last Year in December 2014 I had been featured as One of the 10 and my pick Shemaroo for 2015 at Rs 159 had surged 102% to Rs 321+ and currently as  of December 18,2015  a year later yet quotes strong up 70% at Rs 270 .Here’s that blast from the past  link  ~ this in a year  2015 where the Sensex & Nifty are about to close the year down 7%

😆 This must have given confidence and conviction to the Outlook Business Editors to invite me yet again for the second year in a row & I accepted

For my Pick for 2016 in this Special Edition,I’ve gone with Astec LifeSciences @ Rs 238….it’s now a Godrej Group Company with a Market Cap of just over Rs 450 crs

Tata Chemicals soaring towards Rs 500 and beyond ~ Fertiliser Business Sale Fertilising!?

Tata Chemicals’ on the Roll ! up @ 18% this month ! including the 6%+ run up today on highest volumes this month

As this month of July began I was quoted by Economic Times on July 1,2015 itself in their headline story on Tata Chemicals

Quoted By Economic Times For My US $ One Billion Valuation Of Fertliser Business Of Tata Chemicals

The Share Price which was at Rs 415 -Rs 420 levels as June closed shot up past Rs 430 with heavy NSE Volumes of over 1 million shares before dropping back

But look at today’s NSE Volumes of over 2 Million shares,coming on the back of two consecutive days of over 0.6 million shares each day !

Share Price has zoomed to a high of Rs 495 before settling lower at Rs 487+

Have highlighted the abnormal Volume Days in Bold Green so far in July

Date

Close in Rs

Trade Volume

16-Jul-2015

487.60

20,96,459

15-Jul-2015

460.20

6,17,554

14-Jul-2015

449.25

6,06,401

13-Jul-2015

444.00

2,17,645

10-Jul-2015

442.05

1,51,916

09-Jul-2015

442.55

2,17,263

08-Jul-2015

437.95

3,43,375

07-Jul-2015

449.25

3,44,147

06-Jul-2015

441.30

3,00,353

03-Jul-2015

434.60

1,36,190

02-Jul-2015

434.00

2,07,201

01-Jul-2015

437.10

10,19,711

30-Jun-2015

420.90

2,00,767

It’s also quoted in the F & O Segment with a Contract Lot of 500 !

Clearly a lot seems to be fertilising on the fertiliser segment sale by Tata Chemicals ! and I’ve opined for a year now that they must sell this low returns business segment if they get a good Valuation and they will ! and the Share Price consequently can move up very strongly even from here !

Disclaimer : Tata Chemicals was recommended to clients in January 2015 as a SS 2 Select and we would have an interest in it

 

Super ! 23 Participants with 40 Stock Selections for 2015 in the TAP GAP Poser

Super ! 23 Participants with 40 Stock Selections for 2015 in the TAP GAP Poser

TAP GAP Poser End 2014 ~Which Indian Company Will Be A Big Share Price Winner In 2015?
December 15th, 2014

I shall shortly pick a gauravblog hamper Winner or maybe two where I see maximum gain potential in 2015 from the following

Participant wise

Sr No

Participant

Recommendation

Date of Recommendation

Price in Rs when recommended

1

Sumit Khanna

Subros

15.12.2014

67.85

PTC India Financial Services Ltd

17.12.2014

56.4

2

Jigam Gandhi

Wendt India

15.12.2014

2000

3

Sandeep Gahandule

Nathbiogene

16.12.2014

130.55

Prima Plastic

17.12.2014

56

JM Financial

18.12.2014

47.6

4

Bhaskar

IPCA Labs

16.12.2014

723.55

5

Nitin

Ajanta Pharma

16.12.2014

2528.65

Atul Auto

16.12.2014

601

6

Anand

Raj Rayon

17.12.2014

0.66

Jubilant Life Sciences

30.12.2014

119.95

7

Prasad

Nbcc

18.12.2014

792.05

Capital First

30.12.2014

353.4

TV Today

30.12.2014

215.2

8

Rohit

 Adani Enterprises

20.12.2014

452.05

9

Prasad Shetty

Multibase

21.12.2014

227.9

10

Kushal Shah

MCX

22.12.2014

838.95

Jet Airways

22.12.2014

389.7

11

Rajan

Motherson Sumi Systems

22.12.2014

440.2

12

Hemant

NETWORK 18

22.12.2014

66

Intellect Design

22.12.2014

75.6

Pipavav Defence

22.12.2014

39.75

13

Raj

Odyssey Technologies

22.12.2014

33.65

14

Shiva

Granules India

23.12.2014

777

Mayur Uniquoters

23.12.2014

415.4

SpiceJet

23.12.2014

19.3

15

Abhay Tewari

Suzlon Energy

23.12.2014

13.45

16

Pushkar Prasad

Freshtrop Fruits

24.12.2014

115.9

17

Dhiren

Tata Sponge

26.12.2014

680

18

N Sri

Deccan Gold Mine

28.12.2014

42.95

19

Sameer

Spicejet

30.12.2014

17.95

Deccan Gold Mine

30.12.2014

44

Muthoot Capital Services

30.12.2014

207.15

20

Shahzad V

Engineers India Ltd

31.12.2014

229.75

AkzoNobel

31.12.2014

1384.1

Aries Agro

31.12.2014

117.4

21

Kiran

Vidhi Dyestuffs

31.12.2014

17.16

22

Vishal Kejriwal

CCL Products

1.1.2015

170.95

Oriental Carbon Chemical Ltd

1.1.2015

361.55

Hinduja Global Solutions Ltd

1.1.2015

631.75

23

Rudra Tandan

Ram Ratna Wires

2.1.2015

48

Foseco

2.1.2015

1227.55

Alphabetical Scripwise

Sr No. Scrip Recommended for 2015 Price in Rs when recommended Participant
1 Adani Enterprise 452.05 Rohit
2 Ajanta Pharma 2528.65 Nitin
3 Akzo Nobel 1384.1 Shahzad V
4 Aries Agro 117.4 Shahzad V
5 Atul Auto 601 Nitin
6 CCL Products 170.95 Vishal Kejriwal
7 Capital First 353.4 Prasad
8 Deccan Gold 42.95 N Sri
9 Deccan Gold 44 Sameer
10 Engineers Ind 229.75 Shahzad V
11 Foseco India 1227.55 Rudra Tandan
12 Freshtrop Fruit 115.9 Pushkar Prasad
13 Granules India 777 Shiva
14 Hinduja Global 631.75 Vishal Kejriwal
15 Intellect Design Arena 75.6 Hemant
16 Ipca Labs 723.55 Bhaskar
17 JM Financial 47.6 Sandeep Gahandule
18 Jet Airways 389.7 Kushal Shah
19 Jubilant Life 119.95 Anand
20 MCX India 838.95 Kushal Shah
21 Mayur Uniquoter 415.4 Shiva
22 Motherson Sumi 440.2 Rajan
23 Multibase India 227.9 Prasad Shetty
24 Muthoot Cap 207.15 Sameer
25 NBCC 792.05 Prasad
26 Nath Bio-Genes 130.55 Sandeep Gahandule
27 Network 18 66 Hemant
28 Odyssey Technologies 33.65 Raj
29 Oriental Carbon 361.55 Vishal Kejriwal
30 PTC India Financial Services 56.4 Sumit Khanna
31 Pipavav Defence 39.75 Hemant
32 Prima Plastics 56 Sandeep Gahandule
33 Raj Rayon Ind 0.66 Anand
34 Ram Ratna Wires 48 Rudra Tandan
35 SpiceJet 17.95 Sameer
36 SpiceJet 19.3 Shiva
37 Subros 67.85 Sumit Khanna
38 Suzlon Energy 13.45 Abhay Tewari
39 TV TodayNetwork 215.2 Prasad
40 Tata Sponge 680 Dhiren
41 Vidhi Dyestuffs 17.16 Kiran
42 Wendt 2000 Jigam Gandhi

Note :

  1. Sandeep Gahandule who just won the hamper for Alphageo’s spectacular 720% run in 2014 has contributed three selections for 2015 this time too
  2. Anand,who ran neck to neck with Sandeep till November 2014,when his low priced Rs 7 YBrant  was up against Alphageo has yet again given one really low priced selection Raj Rayon of just 66 paise !
  3. Deccan Gold & Spicejet occur twice as they constitute selections from two different participants
  4. Prices at which Recommended have either been provided by the Participant when making the Reco and reflect the current market price at the time or where they have not stated the price,the last price when they made the reco has been sourced from the BSE & NSE
  5. Most have not given targets for 2015 Selections but the four selections that have been given targets and all are  over 100% + except one,are as follows : Freshtop Fruits Rs 250,PTC India Financial Services Rs 90,Subros Rs 150 and Tata Sponge Rs 1500+
  6. Adani Group finds representation but none from the Ambani Groups ~ perhaps realisation that Reliance Ind has been a losing 5 year Investment thus far and ADAG Companies have struggled
  7. Tata Sponge is the lone entry from the Tata Group.
  8. Media and Aviation have two each in Network 18 and TV Today and Jet Airways & Spicejet respectively
  9. Pharma & Auto Ancilliaries & NBFCs &  IT  & Speciality & Commodity Chemical Sectors are well represented
  10. Can see a few potential turnaround selections as well as a few that have already run up huge in 2014
  11. Tea & Coffee Beverages & Renewable Energy & Defence are represented but none from direct Power,Telecom or Real Estate or Retail
  12. No Bank & no Oil & Gas Major  & No visible Large Cap ! but Three Selections are also traded in the Derivatives Segment,namely,Adani Enterprise,Engineers India & Motherson Sumi

Going to be an interesting few days filtering all the above

Bodal Chemicals keeps sinking 5% ~ Closes week at Rs 28

Bodal Chemicals has sunk to another lower circuit today to close the week at Rs 28

This was my post earlier this week where I was shocked at the advice on it by a leading Broking House

Bodal Chemicals @ Rs 35 ~ Shocked At The Advice Of A Broking House Promoted By A Private Bank

A few have sought my views on it wondering ,like this Broking House who recommended long term risk investors clients to average in the Rs 26 to Rs 28 range , whether it’s a good buy now !

Best way to answer this is by reproducing below for wider readership this exchange of email content between a GM who works in the Chairman’s Office of a well known Corporate Group and who was one of the fortunate few to exit at a profit when he observed that Promoters were selling

Blog Reader : Hi Gaurav, Introducing myself, my name is _____ and I work with the ____ group.I am quite passionate about Indian stock market and I read your blog with great interest. The insights given by you are great.Regarding your latest blog on Bodal, I was following this stock – I read both buy and sell reports of ______ – I myself bought at 40 and exited at 62 when I saw that the promoters were selling.What I want to ask you is what is the real value of this stock. It has posted handsome earnings in Q1 and is slated to give good earnings in Q2 as well, depending, of course, on HAC prices, which have been fluctuating widely.Q1 FY15 EPS – 4.8  Q4 FY14 EPS – 4.1….Even if it can give in FY15 an EPS of Rs. 15, I would consider it damn cheap at a price of Rs. 32 odd now.What do you think? Please give your views.

Me : Glad you enjoy my blog….you are probably an exception to have exited with good gains in Bodal Chemicals….thousands of small investors have clearly suffered.….You work with ___ closely…ask him how important is Corporate Governance especially in recent years…practice & perception both….You need to go deeper than the numbers especially in Bodal Chemicals given what is being played out…When I consider an idea I go for Pedigree,Business Model,Financials and then the Valuation in this order….if I find it difficult to get past the first I rarely venture beyond that !….Retail investors have clearly been shorted badly here inside a month….Too many Questions pop up that on what I believe was a facilitated exit by one of the Promoters….if FY 15 and FY 16 too are going to be marvelous years as CMD Suresh Patel has stated giving strong Revenues and Profit targets too in his statement as Company is coming out of CDR  then he should have ensured that the exiting Promoter shares should have been picked up internally….Such Companies don’t deserve a healthy PE Multiple for two reasons….Corporate Governance Issues + Significant Volatility & Quick Swings in Global Prices of Chemical Products they sell …..Bankers who have lend to them may ask for part repayment or topping up security as Share Price has crashed to Rs 31 and a major part of Promoters shares are pledged for these loans…of course due to a great FY 14 they have prepaid over Rs 100 crs on the CDR loan restructuring in FY 15 till date….Once credibility is lost it take a long time to regain it….Even if it’s simply an investor perception…… Investor Interest in Bodal Chemicals may wane for what is playing out        read more

Bodal Chemicals @ Rs 35 ~ Shocked at the advice of a Broking House promoted by a Private Bank

Bodal Chemicals @ Rs 35 ~ Shocked at the initial ‘Buy’ advice and inside a month ‘Sell’ advice of a Broking House promoted by a Private Bank

I normally never comment in print or otherwise on the recommendations of others whether I agree or disagree with them ….each to his own counsel….but there are exceptions when clients ask me for an opinion or in scenarios like this below where a wider populace of those investing in equities are impacted…nothing personal  

On September 18,2014 the Institutional Desk of a leading Broking House promoted by a leading private bank came out with a Research Report on the Chemical Industry and called ‘Bodal Chemicals ‘ a Turnaround Turk @ Rs 53

Just @ 20 days later and @ Rs 20 down @ Rs 36  on October 9,2014 the Retail Desk of the same Broking House advised their Risk  Averse Clients to exit ! and Long term Clients to average if it drops further into the Rs 26 to Rs 28 range and there was a chance it will !

The Analysts are different in both the reports

Phew ! Sympathise with the Clients of this Broking House !

Those who bought Bodal Chemical in the Rs 50 to Rs 60 range  have lost @ 28% to 40 % inside  20 days ! while this Broking House, while making the Brokerage on the deals ,has not even apologised for the idea and the probability that they were suckered by the management and Promoters! 

What is shocking really is not this ill advice…it happens to the best of us…. but what is revealing is one of the reasons they have given to exit now at this huge loss  inside days !

It’s because from September 18,2014 one NRI Promoter and his wife have been selling the Stock !

The same day as the Research Report was released !

Did the analysts  of this Broking House who recommended a ‘Buy’ for ‘Bodal’ meet the Management or Promoters of Bodal Chemicals ?…and if they did ,have they unwittingly become the conduit to recommend to clients of their Employer so there is huge buying and it facilitates the offloading by the Promoter Jayanti Patel and his wife ! ?…or is there something more than meets the Eye here !

The Broking House would have not lost as much credibility as it has now if it had simply apologised for this and recommended all clients to exit and not just the risk averse clients…and with this scenario of a Promoter selling heavily from the release date of the report how can you recommend that clients can consider averaging at lower levels !?….that may be putting more good money after bad ! …would one want to increase exposure in such a company !? and therefore it’s weightage in one’s equity portfolio !?….more so if one observes the 52 Week High & Low is Rs 75 on August 6,2014 and Rs 8.20 on October 24,2013…it’s been dropping from August 6,2014 after having risen dramatically from October 24,2013   read more

No Sugar ? What is my Alternative Sweetener ? Sugar Free or Equal or Splenda ?

No Sugar ? What is the Alternative Sweetener ? Sugar Free or Equal or Splenda ?

I use Splenda  especially as it does not contain Aspartame( a combination of two amino acids,aspartic acid and phenylalanine. Amino acids are the building blocks of proteins and are found naturally in many foods.Aspartame though approved by US FDA with prescribed daily intakes,has been perceived to be responsible for causing many Health issues , even Cancer…though tests are not conclusive

http://www.cancer.org/cancer/cancercauses/othercarcinogens/athome/aspartame 

Those who cannot consume Sugar because they are Diabetic or prefer low or no calorie sweeteners routinely turn to these three popular alternatives  :

  • Sugar Free Gold Low Calorie Sugar Substitute claims to be India’s No 1 Sweetener ~ It is made from Aspartame,a protein derivative ~ A 0.75 g sachet is equivalent in sweetness to two teaspoons of sugar and contains 2.8 calories instead of 40 calories that the two teaspoons of sugar hold ~ not recommended for Children and not meant for Phenylketoneurics.Ingredients are Lactose,Aspartame and Polyvinyl Pyrrolidone…..Phenylketonurics are people who have PKU disease. People with this disease cannot digest the amino acid phenylalanine properly, so if they eat too much of it, it could build up in their brains and cause mental problems. The warning on the wrapper is warning these people not to eat that product so they can avoid ingesting phenylalanine.
    PKU disease is a genetic condition, and it can be easily discovered through a blood test ~ Sugar Free Gold is manufactured and marketed by Zydus Wellness,Sikkim which is part of the Cadila Pharma Group of Gujarat
  • Equal is a low calorie sweetener ~ Each Sachet of 1 g contains 36 mg of Aspartame and it’s 4kcal is equivalent in sweetness to two teaspoons of sugar that is 32kcal.The ingredients are Lactose,Aspartame and colloidal silicon dioxide.It is not for Phenylketoneurics and not recommended for Children.It is manufactured by Qualicare Pharmaceuticals Ltd,Medak,Andhra Pradesh and marketed by Merisant India Pvt Ltd,New Delhi
  • Splenda is a no calorie sweetener that is ideal for the whole family ,including Children,Pregnant and Nursing Women and even those with Kidney,Liver or Cancer Issues.It does not contain Aspartame.It gets the sweetness from Sucralose and also contains Dextrose and Maltodextrin.Each Sachet is 1 g and suitable for people with diabetes.Splenda is distributed by McNeil Nutritionals LLC,Foret Washington,PA,USA.Sucralose is made from a patented process from sugar to a no calorie and no carbohydrate sweetener.Sucralose does not have the after taste bitterness associated with other alternatives to sugar like saccharin and acesulfame K and unlike Aspartame can hold up to heat and thus can also be used in cooking and baking.After 20 years of Research  and over 110 scientific studies it is now allowed in over 80 countries.The US FDA and WHO do not require it to mention any warnings or restricted use on it’s labels.Also it has no expiriy date unlike other sweeteners that need to be conumed within one to three years of manufacture .You can check out why Splenda is a preferred sweetener to others at this link on their website http://www.splenda.com/faq/no-calorie-sweetener   
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