Looooooooong Full House Saturday Equity Mumbai Workshop Sept 14 2019

It was a looooooooong,should have held it over two days,  Full House Equity Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,September 14,2019 with a whole spectrum of smart participants that made for really invigorating interaction ~they came from Mumbai,Gurgaon & Pune ~ from young upwardly mobile grads & post grads from top ranked Management Institutes in India,UK (London) & USA(Harvard) to ‘ well tuned in’ professionals from the IT ,Consultancy,Broking,Corporate & Banking Sectors to veteran high networth investors . We commenced at 9.30 am & concluded well beyond 7.30 pm ~ 🙂 should have arranged dinner too

Thank you Guys !

Here are a few candid clicks from the Workshop :

The Coverage was expansive & the Interaction from Participants very intelligent & which opened out many threads that we examined with anecdotal support . When analysing a company ,they asked what is “Non Negotiable” &  “How to have Foresight as on Hindsight we are always right”

Really a lot was covered ,some of which is below  :

  • Macros through :
  1. Examining the Equity Table’s four legs of Valuation,Liquidity,Momentum & Sentiment & the Impact of FPI Flows ~ when Valuation,which should be the strongest leg,sometimes takes a back seat as Liquidity or even a lack of it drives the momentum & sentiment
  2.  Not getting Seduced by any Bounce at  Friday closing Sensex 37385 & Nifty 11076 Levels as Caution is strongly indicated by domestic & overseas economy & geo-political headwinds
  3. Negative Interest Rates Era vs the Magic of Compounding in such meltdowns
  4. Sensex & Earnings & Market Cap & low GDP growth Dynamics on Levels & Valuations ~ Past,Present & Forward & why downside risk remains wide open while the upside appears capped for now ~ we referred to 1991/92 abnormally high Sensex PE pre Harshad Mehta Scam exposure & the High PE in 2000 with Ketan Parekh was in action & where the markets were clearing running ahead of fundamentals by huge margins~ we referred to the Sensex PE of just 6 in the late 1980s when VP Singh was the PM 1988~ we covered Mkt Cap/GDP Highs pre Lehman collapse in 2007/8 & the levels now
  5. Fx Reserves  & Exchange Rate Risk &  the Risk of increasing Sovereign Debt as planned by Government ~ How our Rupee has always had a South trajectory,except when it soared from Rs 49 to the US $ to Rs 39 to the US $ creating havoc especially in the Diamond Sector
  6. Why Inversely co-related Gold & US $ are moving up together instead
  7. Turm-Oil & Impact on Fiscal Deficit & Rupee  like last happened in 2007/8( On Saturday at the workshop we were not yet clued in to the Drone Attack on the Oil Refinery in Saudi Arabia that saw Oil Prices dangerously soar 20% in spot) ~ India is hugely dependent on Oil Imports
  8. Interest & Inflation rates
  9. Trump ~ Not sure if he’s a macro or micro factor !
  • Micros through many companies  & sector dynamics covering :
  1. Checklist on how to Smartly & Effectively & thus Quickly Read a voluminous Annual Report
  2. Our Five Steps for Evaluating a Company for Investment
  3. Impact on the Financial Statements in Scenarios like Buy Back,Rights Issues,Fictitious Sales,RBI issuing a divergence on Provisioning for NPAs,non linear jump in Sales Realisations,5 G Spectrum Fees,Permanent Diminution in Investments,Monetising Assets & Depreciation of the Rupee
  4. Quick Brief on Absolute & Relative Valuation & how to prepare a quick Valuation Grid from the Annual Report, Market Price Trends & Shareholding
  5. Why Liquidity more than Profitability is the ‘Circle of Life’  for a Company as viewed through the lens of the Cash Flow Statement dervived from the Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss Ac & that distinguishes operating,financing & investing flows
  6. Corporate Governance Issues on inadequate Disclosure or Non Disclosure, Incorrect & questionable Accounting Treatment & Lack of Transparency &  irresponsible (deliberate?)  Management utterances  that give a leg to Insider Trading & huge Profits through  Derivatives Play
  7. Courage & Conviction Promoter or Institutional recent Buying in Vodafone,Yes Bank,I B Real Estate & Tata Motors & seeing more wealth destruction since in these   
  8. Basis for Disclaimer of Opinion by the Auditor of Reliance Infrastructure & what holds out some hope
  9. Intangibles,Investments & Impairments
  10. Reliance Industries’s Enterprise Value,Revenue Segments Potential,Spin offs of the Jio Telecom Infra into two trusts, Aramco’s 20% stake being negotiated in the Refining,Petroleum Retailing & Petrochemicals Business that should lead to further demerger & reviving & scaling the Gas Exploration Operations
  11. How Defaults & Corporate Governance Issues decimated into or near oblivion Eros,Cox & Kings,ManPasand,Tree House Education,Satyam,Jet Airways,Kingfisher & Talwalkars & is there any hope of operational & share price recovery with Asset values holding out some hope in a few ~ How Clearly the Statutory Auditors & Credit Rating Agencies were negligent or intentionally turned a blind eye in many cases
  12. Huge Potential Outlay of the ‘Nal sey Jal’ Scheme of the Government & the new Jal Shakti Ministry focus that should benefit many companies if the implementation & execution is as noteworthy as the intent
  13. How IndAs 115 continues to affect Bombay Dyeing
  14. How Exchanges continue to accept outright untrue or tepid clarifications from Companies
  15. Reference to Investment Gurus & Living Legends Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch Approaches & Success
  16.  Coverage of a few sectors like Defence, Hydrocarbons,Broking,Telecom,Real Estate,NBFCs,Banks & Automobiles & Disruption that’s in play in many
  17. Consolidation & Capitalisation of PSU Banks & the controversial Acquisition of Laxmi Vilas Bank by I B Housing Finance pending RBI approval
  18. Common Investor Mistakes

The next Equity Workshop is scheduled  pre-Diwali for Saturday ,October 19,2019 & will be announced soon on www.jsalphaa.com & social media

Touched by some warm & constructive feedback from participants :

  • thanks for a lovely interactive session…”
  • “enjoyed your session yday”
  • “it was great to meet again & reskill to be better prepared for opportunities which would arise”
  • “Thanks for being the Enabler,the last few days have been very encouraging”
  • “Cover the Scenarios Exercise more with Investor focus than just on Accounting Impact & take in a few Annual Reports before Lunch”  

😆 & I swear I did not pay for these ones !

  • ” You are very good at what you do,comes naturally to you,with a vastness of the subject to cover you did justice to cover the best you could with your insights and experience of all the treasures of knowledge,you are an encyclopedia of the subject with case studies,which is the best way of teaching, sharing & learning according to me,the various industries that you know of,the processes & the products,the promoters & the pitfalls,the auditors & the audited,you can understand in the readings the stated & the unstated,intention & intended,you truly personify_the integration of intellect with instinct_”   
  • “Whoever missed this one, missed learning a radical way to look at balance sheets. Very practically in a few minutes you can strip away the padding and bullshit that promoters hide their sins behind. If the stock market’s motto or rather rider has always been caveat emptor or buyer beware, Gaurav’s lessons in Analysis would ensure that a “fool and his money are not soon parted” for when emotions like fear and greed coupled with ignorance seize us even the wisest are prone to behave like fools. Especially the wisest!”
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    Sadly Tree House Education Uproots Children Now after Shareholders

    Sadly Tree House Education Uproots Children Now after Shareholders

    The Market Cap is down to just Rs 100 crs at 20% lower circuit today at Rs 23.85

    It’s Fall commenced in 2015 uprooting Shareholders Wealth dramatically from Highs of Rs 550 in Feb 2015 when Market Cap was over Rs 2300 crs ! ~ it’s a wipe-off of over 95% in Wealth!!! like you’re left with just Rs 5 from your original Rs 100 !!!

    Now Children have been uprooted with Centres being closed overnight

    I had blogged extensively on this debacle over a year ago on November 27,2015 with specifics on how there appeared to be cloudy money payments & accounting jugglery in the accounts.My Training Sessions cover TreeHouse when discussing Corporate Governance & Interpretation of Financial Statements when assessing Value vs Price

    Tree House Education up Shit Creek & Down Market Big Time at Rs 169

    Did not the  FPIs,Private Equity Funds & Venture Funds question this when investing Hundreds of Crs in the Company….and how did Independent Directors & Auditors allow all of this….& how did all such risk miss the eyes of many a Fundamental Analyst when recommending this for Investment !!! 

    Shareholders Proxy Firm SES ,co-founded by MD & ex SEBI ED,Mr J N Gupta accuses the Company yet again.

    They had raised similar suspicions in 2015 

    Message Boards of Stock Portals went ballistic on Tree House last two years with many supporting a turnaround at Rs 150 & Rs 200 levels that it had dropped to end 2015 from Rs 550+ levels.Either they were paid stooges or simply living in Hope in the Squeeze of a Boa Constrictor.2016 actually tightened the squeeze leaving shareholders gasping for breath,dropping from Rs 175 levels beginning of the year to now just Rs 24 & falling.There’s a cloud on the merger too with Zee

    And just look at this ironic Shareholder data !

    March 2015 ~ 5300 Shareholders at Peak Highs of over Rs 500

    December 2015 ~ 13552 Shareholders at Turnaround Hope @ Rs 175

    September 2016 ~ 20577 Shareholders last notification count

    Clearly Many Investors love standing in front of a Speeding Train ! ~ The Faster the Speed of the Fall the More Join in to commit suicide ! ~ Living in Hope only to Die in Despair ! ~ Sadly most of them could be Retail,sucked in by Positive Views on MessageBoards & by Experts on  Stock Portals & Channels

    Earlier in 2013 I had lamented & even loudly warned on the blog (Checkout Category Kingfisher Airlines~ Machiacellian Mallyas) ,in my Forum Speeches & Training Sessions that over 240000 shareholders of Kingfisher Airlines should critically revisit their Investment before it was too late as to me it was simply an Airline that never really took off ! ~ Shareholders remain Holed up in a suspended scrip (last restricted trade was just Rs 1 in June 2015 when it was finally fully suspended even from restricted Trading after initial suspension from December 1,2014 ) while the Promoter Mallya is holed up in London ~ Tagline of my Blog “In India,Companies may Fall Sick but Promoters rarely do!” read more

    HCL Info up 12% to @ Rs 51 with super volumes~Will BSE & NSE ask Why again?

    HCL Infosystems Ltd up 12% to @ Rs 51 with super volumes ~ Will BSE & NSE ask Why again?

    Just under a fortnight ago on September 22,2016 HCL Info opened at @ Rs 42 & surged to Rs 48 before settling at Rs 47 on huge above average volumes with BSE clocking over 42 lakh shares and NSE  trading near 1.63 cr shares

    BSE & NSE had asked the Company to Clarify on whether there was any reason for this surge in Volumes & Share Price

    Interestingly the Company replied instantly that “The increase in volume seems speculative in nature”   

    The Delivery % was just under 20

    The Share Price then slid last week back to Rs under 43

    Today  BSE  & NSE clocked even more super volumes exceeding 45+ lakh & 1.84+ cr  shares respectively with Share Price shooting up 12% to close just under Rs 51

    What’s Happening? Will the Exchanges in 13 days yet again ask the Company for clarification for today’s surge too & will the company reply the same that it’s seems to be speculative & will thus the share price slide back ?

    52 Week H/L is Rs 66.75/30 & Market Cap is Rs 1135 crs

    The Company is part of the Shiv Nadar HCL Tech Group & has undergone a Scheme of Arrangement effective January 1,2013.It has 14 unlisted subsidiaries including eight step down & one jv associate and has suffered losses in the past three financial periods which even witnessed declining topline with the last dividend being paid for FY 12.Consolidated Networth on March 31,2016 declined to Rs 1008 crs with Equity (FV Rs 2) at Rs 44.58 crs  of which Rs 596 crs in reflected in Goodwill on Consolidation.There are no Non Current Investments in Consolidated Accounts.Standalone shows these at Rs 972 crs in six unquoted subsidiaries after providing for diminution (Original Investments Cost was Rs 1568 crs).Short Term & Long Term Borrowings,about evenly split at March 31,2016 aggregated 996 crs.Book Value at year end March 31,2016 was Rs 45

    The Business Model is of Four Market Driven Business Units housing nine Lines of Business over Distribution,Services,Learning & Hardware Products & Solutions & the Company states in it’s FY 16 Annual Report that it will be their Core Enterprises Business of Distribution & Services that will be the engine for the next level of growth.Do remember that the Company has been contracted for UIDAI & the milestone of over 100 crs Aadhaars has been crossed.India has a population of over 125 crs.Their System Integration Business has seen many of the defence projects move towards commercial conclusion read more

    Tree House Education up Shit Creek & Down Market Big Time at Rs 169

    Tree House Education up Shit Creek & Down Market Big Time at 20 % lower circuit today of Rs 169

    70% of Wealth Destroyed in nine and a half months from 52 Week High of Rs 548 on BSE & Rs 559 on NSE recorded on February 16,2015

    No Kidding ! & Excuse the Pun !

    It surely is a terrible Friday for Geeta & Rajesh Bhatia who created the Company

    Trading Volumes are 10 times the daily average past two weeks indicating huge and relentless selling

    52 Week High on BSE was Rs 548  mid Feb 2015 and today’s Rs 169 is the 52 week low….NSE recorded a 52 week high of Rs 559 in mid Feb 200

    Look at the the Irony ! CARE has upgraded their long term debt rating from A- to A

    But Markets have downgraded them big time !

    So the Big Question ? Why this Big Sell Off today !?…BSE recorded 2.44 lakhs shares with 42% delivery while NSE recorded over 13 lakh shares with @ 50% marked for delivery !

    It  must have to do with loan topping by the Bhatias 

    The Company’s Long & Short Term Debts of Rs 59 crs & Rs 119 crs as on September 30,2015 are secured by Company Assets & September Networth is Rs 679 crs giving a Book of Rs 160 a share

    Long Term & Short Term borrowings are secured by mortgage of Land, building, office premises, hypothecation of movable assets, book debts, both present and future of the Company.A part of the short term borrowings are also secured by a fixed deposit.Nowhere does the FY 15 Annual Report state that such borrowings are also secured by Promoter Pledge of Shares.So for what Loans have the Promoters pledged their shares ? Private?

    PBV is heading below 1 from credible and solid levels of 3.5 earlier in the year.Company makes monies and raised dividend to 20% in FY 15 though there was some controversy on the high value of Receivables which was clarified by the Company as staggered payment by clients for K-12 Revenue Stream and accepted by Stakeholders Empowerment Services (SES) who had raised the query

    So then what is the nature and purpose of the loans taken for which the pledge has been made by the Bhatias to the lenders like Ambit Finvest,Capital First,STCI Financial,Kotak Mahindra etc ?

    Bhatias own 29.97% of the Equity of Rs 42.31 crs at September 30,2015 holding 12680069 shares of which they had pledged  5482000 or 43.23% with the lenders

    Their latest notification to BSE reveals 6467000 shares pledged .As Tree House Share Price kept crumbling they were forced to provide additional security and create further pledges and encumberances on the same loan.In October & November 2015 an incremental 985000 additional shares were pledged .Now 51% of the shares Promoters hold are pledged ….Rajiv Bhatia has pledged nearly all his holdings and some held by  wife Geeta Bhatia read more

    Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

    Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

    Seems to get bigger & better every time !

    Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

    Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

    Sunday, August 16th, 2015

    Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

    @ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

    Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

    Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

    That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

    Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  ! read more

    Yeah ! Our SCRIPTECH Brand completes 25 Years today !

    Yeah ! Our SCRIPTECH Brand completes 25 Years today !

    25 years ago in 1990 on this day October 12 my Family launched  our SCRIPTECH Brand  in the field of Equity Advisory & Training in Capital Markets

    It’s been a Sensex Journey from 1000 levels in 1990 to current 27000 levels in 2015 !=> CAGR of 14% +

    Our Present Avatars are Jeena Scriptech Alpha Advisors Pvt Ltd  & Scriptech Infosystems in the field of Web Development & Digital Marketing

    It’s been a passionate ‘never give up’ evolving journey of surviving and surmounting tough challenges and reaching milestones and striving to be the best we can and being recognised for this

    We are grateful for the continued blessings of the Almighty and the unflinching support of Family & Friends and  dedication of our employees and the the best wishes of Business Partners,Associates and Clients….thank you all from the bottom of our hearts

    Here are a few glimpses of the memorable launch on October 12,1990