Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  1. Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  2. Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  3. Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  4. Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  5. India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  6. Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  7.  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  8. Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  9.  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  10.    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  11. All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  12. Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  13. Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  14. Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end

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Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

Seems to get bigger & better every time !

Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

Sunday, August 16th, 2015

Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

@ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  !

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PEBS IPO at Rs 178 only to facilitate a super profitable exit to Zephyr Peacock!?

PEBS IPO at Rs 178 (FV Rs 10) only to facilitate super profitable exit to Zephyr Peacock!?

No Grudge against the Private Equity Investor Zephyr Peacock but if  you’re thinking of applying in the PEBs IPO that opens on August 25 you should be aware of this…..

Shareholding of Private Equity Player Zephyr Peacock in PEBS  

In March to May 2013 Zephyr Peacock infused Rs 35 crs in PEBS  through Preferential Allotments of 5468750 CCPS to be converted at Rs 64

PEBS is a subsidiary of the listed Pennar Industries which was quoted at Rs 20 at the time.I was intrigued by this CCPS Infusion as it was to be converted at Rs 64 while Parent Company Pennar Industries was quoted at just Rs 20….Digging deeper found that PEBS was soon becoming the Crown of this Group and it resulted in my strongly recommending Pennar Industries at @ Rs 20 to Rs 25 as a SS 2 Select in mid 2013.Today it’s @ Rs 56 after recording a High of Rs 71 earlier this month on August 10,2015

In March & May this year the CCPS conversion took place but not at Rs 64 but at Rs 58.17 as thus the Zephyr Peacock Funds got allotted 6016485 shares instead of 5468750 shares

However the Pre-issue Holding of both the Zephyr Peacock Funds is 8360235 shares.This difference of 2343750 Equity shares is on account of 2343750 shares being transferred by the Promoter group to these funds in the year 2013 at Rs 64 at the time of the Preferential Allotments

On Offer in the IPO

PEBS is launching it’s IPO through Book Building on August 25,2015 in the Price Band of Rs 170 to Rs 178

It comprises of a Fresh Issue of @ Rs 58 crs +  Offer for Sale of 5516141 equity shares

Assuming Rs 178 the Fresh Issue will involve new 3258427 Shares to raise Rs 58 crs

The Offer For Sale of  5516141 equity shares at Rs 178 will bring in Rs 98 crs + to the sellers

Of these 5516141 Shares on offer for sale by existing shareholders,5016141 or  @ 91% are from Zephyr Peacock.

Zephyr Peacock’s Average Cost of their pre IPO Holding of 8360235 shares is Rs 60 => Rs 50 crs and they’re exiting 5016141 shares at Rs 178 to get them @ Rs 89 crs !

This would leave them with 3344094 free shares + a profit of Rs 39 crs !  

To me this Stinks ! as the IPO of a total 8774568 shares which at Rs 178 gives the IPO Size at Rs 156 crs comprises 63 % or nearly 2/3rds of Offer For Sale to partially exiting Shareholders( remember 91% is Zephyr Peacock ) and only @ 1/3rd infusion onto the Company…and that too merely to reduce pressure on short term working capital borrowings !  

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Union Budget 2014 ~ Will Sensex continue to Humour as Jaitley does not!

Have a look at our first impression posted  after our FM ‘s Union Budget Address and during market hours

Union Budget 2014 ~ Will Sensex continue to Humour as Jaitley does not!

Think he missed a great opportunity to provide us with the ‘Naya Soch’ of the new NDA Government

His Speech stated quite a few challenges and objectives like tackling Black Monies,raising Tax to GDP ratio,lowering Inflation and Fiscal Deficit % but stopped short of spelling out the specifics of solving these

Having just 45 days after NDA was elected he has opted for the easier option of simply following the UPA budget process and numbers too that the UPA FM Mr Chidambaram laid out in his Interim Budget in February 2014….whether it be Disinvestment or Tax Receipts or Fiscal Deficit Control Targets…made right noises but was tokenism in a few areas like social expenditure…thankfully nothing really adverse or anti poor though direct tax incentives are not really cause for any celebration

Sensex had quite a roller coaster ride today as to be expected….opening stable & pre budget speech at 25514 in the morning then sliding before noon over 300 points to 25117 from yesterday closing of 25445 during the budget speech before strongly racing away by over 700 points to 25920 …over 400 points previous day closing post budget speech only to reverse all the gains and close at 25373,down 72 points  from previous day closing

Will the Sensex continue to Humor us in the near term despite not an iota of Humor in the FM’s Speech !? …sense is that any correction will be a hiccup on the onward march towards 30000 on the back of increased FII Net Infows & Big Corporate Infra spending  

I see some clear big winners in the Infrastructure Space across the Board from Shipping to Power to SEZs to Real Estate to Highway Road Construction Companies and Pipeline Companies

 

 

Typical ~ Equity Investors are piling on at these Highs ~ they need to be cautious

Sensex has crossed a record 26000 & Nifty is now ahead of 7700

Typical ~ Equity Investors are piling on at these Highs  ~ they need to be cautious ~ especially those who are returning or initiating fresh exposure now not having done so in 2013 or earlier in 2014 ~ advisable to await the post budget scenario as there is a high probability that once euphoria abates the Sensex and Bellwether Scrips may correct 10% or more…the real danger though are the small caps and midcaps that have run up crazy,some over 100% in months…they may correct 25% to 50%…yes that high !  

At June 30,2014 ,Equity mutual funds saw record absolute rise in average AUM in the quarter, up by Rs 33000 crore or 16% to Rs 2,36,000 crore led by mark to market gains and inflows. The equity funds’ contribution to the gains in the industry assets was the highest among all categories

While this is to be expected on the back of the resounding BJP Victory and Narendra Modi assuming Prime Ministership there needs to some caution that should be exercised especially by those seeking instant profits and gratification as Sensex has crossed 26000 levels and seems to be running a little ahead of fundamentals for the near term on the back of  BJP & Narendra Modi sweeping the elections,FII Net Inflows exceeding US $ 8 Billion in 2014 till date and Great Expectations from the Budget in particular and the Government in general going forward

Great Expectations from the Union Budget this Thursday are countered by great challenges that continue to confront us on the economic and geo political front…Iraq & Ukraine Tension can escalate further causing Oil Price to surge even further past US 120/barrel and putting pressure on the Rupee…though a lot of the pressure has been taken off by record FII Net Inflows into India this year into both Debt & Equity

The Budget Backdrop is :

High ~ Inflation,Deficits & Debts

Low ~ Economic Growth with Manufacturing sector that needs urgent revival

45% + of the Projected FY 15 Fiscal Deficit has been reached in the first two months April & May  of FY 14 itself 

There is little room to lower Interest Rates immediately….so manufacturing thrust can be provided through diluting the Land Acquisition Act and opening out or increasing FDI cap in many sectors

It is commonly expected that the Budget will be kind to the Infrastructure,Housing Finance,Power & Banking Sector….a major beneficiary of this should also be the Cement Sector

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L & T Chairman A M Naik expresses anguish and prescribes action for the Indian Economy

This is an informative and impressive interview given by A M Naik,Chairman of Larsen & Toubro in today’s edition of Economic Times expressing his anguish on the mistakes made and how to address challenges to bring India’s Economy back to a sustainable 9% to 10% GDP Growth Rate with financial inclusion

Some thought provoking bytes…..

On reviving GDP Growth Rate….“has to retrace itself to 9-10% and be sustainable for many years without stoking inflationWhen we grow at 10% the rich get wealthier,and therefore,it is important that it should be inclusive growth “

On Freebies….“I am not in favour of Freebies as it takes away the Dignity of Labour”

On Narendra Modi as PM…..” He is going to make a difference,that too a big difference”

On Driving Growth….” Look at our Trade Imbalance with other countries.It has grown in the last 15 years.If you import raw materials,it adds value to the nation.But if you bring ready-made TV,ready-made cars,then what jobs are you creating here?”

On Free Trade Agreements….“….thing that has damaged India is the indiscreet signing of free-trade agreements (FTAs)…the very word is free trade but where the trade traffic is one way you are exporting jobs and not creating jobs within the country.The Prime Minister in the BRIC Summit ais India has to create 10-15 million jobs.Yes we did.But we created them in foreign lands….We export iron ore to China which means we take it out from Mother Earth and the Chinese add value by making steel and export.That’s why manufacturing which was 22% of the Indian GDP went down to 17% and from a growth of 12% at one time it is registering negative growth.It was directly created by government policies…take a relook at all FTAs….We (Indians) are not bonded labour for life.”

On what should be the three Priorities of the Government…First,and foremost create jobs…restore the manufacturing’s contribution to GDP from 17% to 22%.China has 46%,Malaysia 40%,Indonesia 46%….Do you expect India’s population to daily wake up every morning and worry from where they get their lunch?”…Second,a country can be said to be powerful not just by it’s economic wealth but if it has it’s own independent and powerful defence sector …The government is willing to import and become the largest importer.But you are not willing to give the indian private sector it’s rightful opportunity…India’s defence is in a real bad shape…..We should agree to 49%,subject to genuine transfer of technology.But nowhere in the world,even in the most advanced nations like the US,which has a high-tech defence sector,do they allow foreign companies to hold a majority stake….Forget about sharing technology,it’s not going to happen…..create a strong defence equipment manufacturing base….third is to attract large FDI in Infrastructure….We are talking about a trillion-dollar investment in India and we haven’t even spend one-third of it in infrastructure…The Indian private sector  no longer has the appetite for public-private partnership(PPP).The previous government used to talk that half the amount would come from PPP-$100 billion a year.Today,through PPP even $ 5 billion cannot be raised….The private sector has no moneyThe route to invest in PPP does not exist anymore…Even the Centre’s own ability to spend so much money is limited because of the fiscal deficit,freebies and waiver of loans.The government has a plan to set up 100 cities and high-speed express rail…the quadrilateral is 6000 kms…Rs 100 crore/km…That is about Rs 6 lakh Crores…when you put your hand in the tijori,the money doesn’t exist….The only answer is large foreign direct investment”

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