Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

Seems to get bigger & better every time !

Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

Sunday, August 16th, 2015

Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

@ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  ! read more

My First Take on Just Dial IPO ~ WTF ! JUST DONT DIAL !

WTF ! JUST DON’T DIAL ! 

That’s My First Take on the ‘Just Dial’ IPO ! 

How can SEBI,Exchanges,MOF,Company Law Board even allow this IPO of just under Rs 1000 crs ! ~ there are no  real Objects to the Issue as  it is fully an Offer For Sale by Existing and Part Exiting Promoters and PE  Shareholders and the Company does not get any IPO Money

If you do subscribe in the IPO you’ll make these Existing and Part Exiting Promoters & Other PE Shareholders more very very very filthy rich in no time and making  yourself poor in time to come ! 

The Just Dial IPO opens on May 20,2013 in the book building band of Rs 470 to Rs 543 for a FV Rs 10 share ~ Shares on Offer for Sale by 9 Shareholders  total 17497458 with 75% amounting to 13123095 shares reserved for QIB Portion (normally it is 50%) ~ At top band Price of Rs 543 the Issue Size is Rs 950 crs with all the Monies going to the selling shareholders that include three Promoters,V S S Mani,Ramani Iyer and V Krishnan and 6 Funds that include Sequoia III,SAIF,Tiger Global Four JD Holdings,Tiger Global Five Indian Holdings ,EGCS and SAPV ~ All are Part Exits except for EGCS who exits in full

Plan to write a  detailed note on this Obscene IPO but be forewarned now with these few details and perspectives

Am stunned simply at the gaul and audacity of the Company guided by it’s Lead Issue Managers Citigroup Global & Morgan Stanley  to come out with such an overvalued IPO that is totally an Offer for Sale providing part Exit to Promoters and some PE Players !

SEQUOIA’s Role Play as an Illustration 

SEQUOIA III (Yes,it also holds shares as Sequoia I and II) ,for example at the top band price of Rs 543,will make an obscene 836% Return inside four years on it’s initial Investment in July 2009 at an average Price of Rs 58 a share after  adjusting for a  crazy 55: 1 Bonus in 2010 ! ~ even this Initial Investment of  Rs 38.35 Crs was a Transfer of 118014 Shares on July 21,2009 from another Shareholder Clearmist Ltd at Rs 3250/share  The Liberal Bonus 55:1 on April 24,2010 took the holding to 6608784 shares ~ Of this they are offering 3207934 shares in this IPO and would stand to get Rs 174 crs at Rs 543 and yet be left with 3400850 shares  !

I mean they came in at Rs 50+ and want us to come in at Rs 500+ through their shares ! Whoa ! ~ all for a Company that they just pumped in Rs 250 crs again in  

Promoters exiting make even more ! as their holding cost is between Nil to just 64 paise per share ! read more

MCX-SX launched the Equity & Derivatives Segment today with 700 members and 1116 Listed Stocks and their SX 40 Index

MCX-SX launched their Equity & Derivatives Segment today with 700 members and 1116 Listed Stocks and their SX 40 Index

The Launch Equity & Derivatives Segment of  MCX-SX ~India’s Newest Stock Exchange

Just returned from the launch of the Equity & Derivatives Segment of  MCX-SX,India’s New Stock Exchange at Hotel Trident in Mumbai ~ packed Regal Room and live launch functions in four cities beamed on the screens as were also the Live Proccedings

Met up with many,including Joseph Massey the MD and CEO of MCX-SX and Dr Bandi Prasad,President of FTKMC the knowledge arm of MCX, in our Capital Markets

Met two ex BSE CEOs but did not see any from the current top management of  BSE and NSE ! ~ MCX-SX is now their competitor ~Even the Invite Cover ,if you observe above, does not show BSE with a history of 138 years or NSE with a history of 20 years !  

A 5 Minute AV was shown highlighting  moments of Capital Market History and MCX-SX ~ A few  Short Speeches later  Finance Minister, P Chidambaram rang the Gong @ 4.15 pm to launch the Equity & Derivatives Segment of MCX -SX  and also launced the New SX 40 Index and even punched in a symbolic Trade ~ quite ironically it was a Derivatives Trade and he had just sounded an alarm in his speech of how concerned he is of the high level of Non Delivery Trades !

MCX-SX begins Trading on Monday

SX 40 ~ The Index of India 

The SX 40 is tagged as the Index of India by MCX-SX~ It is a free float based index with a starting base of 10000 as on March 31,2010.It has 40 top large cap Consitituents ~ all the 30 of the BSE Sensex except for the two S’s ,State Bank of India and Sterlite ! ~ Although  Wonder Why these have been excluded though it should meet their stated criteria of positive networth,free float of at least 105 and within top 100 liquid companies~ they also have  Industry capping at 20%( +/-) 2% band  ~ and with HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank the current weightage is already 22% for Financials (it’s 29.4% for Nifty and 26.4% for Sensex) and thus State Bank could not be accommodated ~ or probably not in the 1116 Companies that are listed and will begin trading on Monday ! ~ we’ll know Monday!

Interestingly SX 40 has Zee Entertainment as a constituent which neither the Nifty nor the Sensex has got !

Some noteworthy speech bytes…..largely verbatim but definitely in context

Ashok Jha ~ Chairman MCX-SX

“I am often asked why another Exchange when two already exist!? and my simple answer to that is because Competition benefits the Consumer”  read more

Are IPO Gradings Misleading in the Initial Public Offers (IPOs) ? ~ Yes !

Just Uploaded a few days ago a Report on IPO Gradings on www.jsalphaa.com

Are IPO Gradings Misleading in the Initial Public Offers (IPOs) ? ~ Yes !

Of all the 129 Graded IPOs from 2009 to 2012,81  are currently quoted below IPO Offer Price

Top View of Graded 129 IPOs

Grade ↓

Grade Wise

No of Companies whose Share Price is Up from Offer Price

No of Companies whose Share Price is Down from Offer Price

TOTAL  Graded IPOs

1

4

8

12

2

9

35

44

3

17

24

41

4

15

13

28

5

3

1

4

TOTAL

48

81

129

 

Year ↓

Year Wise

No of Companies whose Share Price is Up from Offer Price

No of Companies whose Share Price is Down from Offer Price

TOTAL  Graded IPOs

2012

8

1

9

2011

15

23

38

2010

17

46

63

2009

8

11

19

TOTAL

48

81

129

 

Two Startling Evidence revealed themselves when we observed all the 129 IPOs that were Graded by SEBI Registered Entities to do so ~CRISIL,CARE,ICRA,FITCH or BRICK

Observation 1

IPOs that were graded lowest 1/5  that have become WEALTH CREATORS

4 of the 12 IPOs graded poorly at just 1/5 by one of the SEBI accredited rating agency are actually huge Wealth Creators

Just Look at the Uptrend ! ~Were the Grading Agencies wrong in giving the lowest grading or is there Share Price Manipulation ? ~ if one suspects the Latter how is it that such Manipulation has been sustained for long !

IPOs that were graded lowest 1/5  that have become WEALTH CREATORS

Listed Company

Issue Closing Date

Graded a Poor 1 by

No. Of times Oversubscribed

Offer Price

Rs

CMP

Rs

Up Trend

%

Onelife Capital Advisors Ltd

04-10-2011

CARE

1.51

110

721

555

VKS Projects Ltd

04-07-2012

CRISIL

1.02

55

218

296

Sudar Industries Ltd

24-02-2011

CRISIL

1.30

77

168

118

Olympic Cards Ltd

13-03-2012

CRISIL

0.99

30

59

97

 


  1. Observation 2

 

  1. IPOs that were graded highest at 4/5 or 5/5 have become WEALTH DESTROYERS


14 of the 32 IPOs graded high at 4 or 5 between 2009 to 2012 have been Wealth Destroyers !

IPOs that were graded highest at 4 or 5/5 that have become WEALTH DESTROYERS

Listed Company

Issue Closing Date

Graded by

No. Of times Oversubscribed

Offer Price

Rs

CMP

Rs

Down Trend

%

A2Z Maintenance & Engineering Services Ltd

10-12-10

CARE

0.92

400

40.35

-89.91

SKS Microfinance Ltd

2-8-10

CARE

11.44

985

155.45

-84.22

Orient Green Power Company Ltd

24-9-10

CRISIL

1.06

47

11.48

-75.57

Tecpro Systems Ltd

28-9-10

CRISIL

20.26

355

146.9

-58.62

PTC India Financial Services Ltd

18-3-11

CARE & ICRA

1.51

28

15.9

-43.21

Punjab & Sind Bank

16-12-10

CARE

50.37

120

72.05

-39.96

Ashoka Buildcon Ltd

28-9-10

CRISIL

14.65

324

200

-38.27

MOIL Ltd

1-12-10

CARE

56.16

375

251.9

-32.83

JSW Energy Ltd

9-12-09

CARE

1.56

100

71.25

-28.75

IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd

15-3-10

CARE & FITCH

35.62

258

197.8

-23.33

Cox & Kings Ltd

20-11-09

CARE

5.64

165

136.4

-17.33

SJVN Ltd

3-5-10

CARE

6.51

26

22.55

-13.27

Hindustan Media Ventures Ltd

7-7-10

CRISIL

4.89

166

148

-10.84

Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd

26-8-10

CRISIL

18.51

46

43.7

-5.00

A2Z was supported in the Primary and Secondary Markets by the well known Investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala ~ your IPO Investment has eroded 90% in it !

For more details you can access the Free Module SCRIP STANDPOINT on www.jsalphaa.com where this and several other Interesting Reports & Views have been uploaded