Boom!as FM Busts Corporate Tax!~Wow!How!Now!?

Released today under my authorship in the SCRIP STANDPOINT Module of Jeena Scriptech Alpha Advisors Pvt Ltd  

“How’s the Josh !?”

Boom!as FM Busts Corporate Tax!~Wow!How!Now!?

The effect of Fun & Excitement peaks when the cause is least expected

Market Sentiment has reversed dramatically & instantaneously !  

BSE & NSE  has seen the Sensex & Nifty created historic surges moving respectively 5.32% & 1921 points up to 38015 & 569 points to 11274 on Friday,September 20,2019 & even more by 2.83% to 39090 & 11600 on Monday ,September 23,2019 to aggregate a surge of 8.3% in just two trading days with Total Market Capitalisation zooming up in just these two trading days by Rs 10,45,700 crs or nearly US $ 150 Billion  to  Rs 148,87,830 crs or near US $ 2.1 Trillion ,thus regaining US $ 2 Trillion Capitalisation quickly ! 

Date Sensex Close Up/(Down)  Points, % Approx Total Market Cap

(Rs Crs)

Total Market Cap Up (Down )

Rs Crs, %

Friday ,September 13,2019

A Week Before

37385 1,42,42,950
Thursday,September 19,2019

Day before Tax Rate  Game Changing Significant Slash Announcement

 

36093 (1292), – 3.46 1,38,42,130 (4,00,820),  -2.8
Friday,September 20,2019

Morning of  FM’s Tax Rate  Game Changing Significant Slash Announcement

38015 1922, 5.32 % 1,45,34,237 6,92,107,   5
Monday,September 23,2019

On Second Trading Day after  FM’s Tax Rate  Game Changing Significant Slash Announcement

39090 1075, 2.83 %

&

2997 in two days, 8.3%

1,48,87,830 3,53,593,   2.43

&

10,45,700,   7.56 

Wow ! How !  Now ! ?

It took a Government Sacrifice of  Rs 1,45,000 crs or US $ 20 Billion in Corporate Tax Revenues to create a 7x sacrifice surge in Market Cap of US $ 150 Billion in just two trading days !

It’s like the Government conceding to the Corporate Sector ” Hey Guys ! we’re transferring our Revenues to you as you’ll can put it to more productive use by funding an Investment Capex Cycle to stimulate more growth for better returns than we can through increased Government Spending “

What is clearly a Market Valuation Re-Rating Move,on the morning of Friday,September 19,2019 our FM Mrs Nirmala Sitharaman announced,what should be seen as a forced measure, a Tax Bonanza for Corporates busting the Tax Rate from an effective high of 34.94% for most to an effective 25.168% with no requirement for those who opt for this rate,  to pay the Minimum Alternate Tax which too was slashed to an effective 17% from  the current 18.5%.Another major tax incentive will be a Tax rate of just 15% for manufacturing companies incorporated after October 1,2019  & who commence manufacturing by March end 2023

Such Tax Rate Cuts & Incentives  announcements should have been part of the budget in early July.If one recalls since the NDA came to power in 2014,it’s always been their stated intent to reduce the Corporate Tax Rates gradually to 25%.Economic slowdown is a catalyst to this ‘one shot’ reduction now & that’s why it can be viewed as a forced measure

It’s a ‘No Brainer’ that Markets would instantly turn euphoric as back of envelopes calculations see the Nifty 50 Companies,whose aggregate FY 19 PAT was Rs 370000 crs , benefit by a clean Rs 27000 crs or US $ 3.8 billion in FY 20 on this Tax Rate reduction.Factor in Earnings Growth before Tax & the benefit is even higher  read more

Kwality destroyed 90 % from Rs 160 to Rs 21 in a year !~Blame the Brokers for going broke?

You were looking for 100% gains in a year…Poof ! now you see your Principal evaporating near 100% 

Kwality Limited’s Share Price has evaporated nearly 90 % from Rs 160 to Rs 21 in a year !

Blame the Brokers for going broke?  

Where was the Quality in the first place !...it was clearly basking in the sunshine of the surge in the share price of other Dairy Companies like Heritage & Parag Milk

I recollect how aghast I was when Kwality Ltd was recommended strongly by not one but several well known broking houses in 2016 & 2017 when it was being quoted in the Rs 110 to 140 range.Targets given by them were extremely tempting to succumb to ! ~ one gave Rs 263 ! ~ another projected Rs 200 !

I have often  mentioned this Company at my Fundamental Equity Value Vs Price Training Workshops when illustrating severe Corporate Governance Issues

A few months ago on March 27, 2018 Kwality had responded to the Exchanges on their concern of falling share price that there was no strategically significant development in the organisation or business & that they were committed to deliver sustainable value to its shareholders at all time…Wow!

The Problem perhaps was on news of Promoter Dhingra pledging shares…or the Company complaining to the exchanges that a broker was fradulently selling shares in the market .Earlier this month Kwality has also been put on the Additional Surveillance Measure (ASM) List.Their June 20,2018 Board Meeting to consider buyback and /or Bonus has been rescheduled to July 3,2018 as majority of the Directors could not make it

What’s going on here !

The Exchanges have just been notified of a downgrading of credit rating by Brickwork .It was just two months ago in April 2018 when Brickwork had given their last ratings  

Today Kwality  was  on lower circuit at Rs 21.15 with heavy volumes before opening up to hit upper circuit & closing a little lower at Rs 22.95 on BSE…relief rally or someone finds real value now !? …52 Week High was @ Rs 160 a year ago…that’s nearly 90% wealth destroyed  from a Market Cap of  @ Rs 3800 crs to just above Rs 500 crs !

This is not to condemn the Broking Houses or vilify them…after all the Money & Risk is all yours…no one held a Gun to your head to invest in Kwality !…so don’t blame the brokers for going broke in this ! even if they had any vested interest in recommending the Company for Investment

Just to warn you not to be carried away by momentum & sentiment in bull markets & follow anyone blindly read more

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  • Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  • Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  • Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  • Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  • India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  • Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  •  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  • Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  •  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  •    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  • All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  • Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  • Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  • Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end
  • read more

    Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

    Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

    Seems to get bigger & better every time !

    Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

    Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

    Sunday, August 16th, 2015

    Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

    @ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

    Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

    Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

    That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

    Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  ! read more

    Cafe Coffee Anyone ! ? ~ Successful IPO at Rs 328 ~ Awaiting Listing

    I’m sure most of us have had a Coffee at one of the Chain Outlets of Cafe Coffee Day (CCD)

    It’s parent Company Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd (CDEL) just concluded a successful IPO and fixed the IPO price at the upper band of Rs 328

    Most had recommended to avoid the Issue as the Pricing was very High

    I  hold a contrary opinion and had recommended the Issue but not as a Stag as there does exist the risk of listing gains not being available

    Here are some relevant extracts from the IPO note prepared by us

     

    Subscribe but not as a Stag ~You Need Not Sit Out !

    Sitting Outside a Cafe Coffee Day Outlet

    Further Lowering of Debt will significantly transform the Financials Dynamics ~ Low Floating Stock ~ It’s Not an Offer For Sale ~ 16.73 % Equity Stake in listed Mindtree worth @ Rs 2000 crs currently
    Immediate Risk : Listing Gains may not be available as IPO Pricing is perceived to be on the higher side

    Five Positives in our View

    1. Huge Brand Recall & therefore Significant Brand Value ~ CDEL,through its subsidiary, operates the popular Cafe Coffee Day Chain of 1538 stores across 219 cities with a 46% Market Share.It has been recognised as the second best Indian Brand.This Intangible Asset is not in the Books but clearly is in the Premium sought in the IPO Pricing of Rs 316 to Rs 328

    2. CDEL has a 16.73 % (10.41 % directly and 6.32% through 88.97% owned subsidiary Coffee Day Trading Ltd) Non Promoter Equity Stake in the listed Software Company Mindtree which is worth @ Rs 2000 crs based on Share Price of Mindtree ~ if monetised it will make CDEL free of net debt instantly and add Rs 250 crs + to bottomline on interest saved=> that’s an incremental EPS of Rs 12 itself !.CDEL had a net consolidated debt of Rs 2864 crs at December 31,2014. Mindtree quoted @ Rs 1400 (FV Rs 10) with a Market Cap @ Rs 12000 crs has just declared a very good Q 2 FY 16 with a Networth as on September 30,2015 of Rs 2243 crs and Book of Rs 267 and Annualised EPS of Rs 70 giving a PBV & PE of 5.25 and 20 respectively.It has also declared a 40% Interim Dividend. Share Price of Mindtree has gained @ 20% thus far in 2015 and holds potential for more

    3. The CDEL IPO of Rs 1150 crs is a full fresh issue of Equity Shares and there is no offer of sale from Promoters and other Shareholders.Have a look below at the Pedigree of Non Promoter Shareholders and their pre IPO holdings and cost in CDEL

    4. The IPO of Rs 1150 crs has already attracted 17 well known Anchor Investors who have committed Rs 334 crs at Rs 322

    5. The IPO comprises just over 17% of post IPO Equity Capital of Rs 206 crs and implies limited floating stock read more

    Interesting Interaction with Market Doyens Deenaben Mehta & Ramesh Damani

    Last Evening interacted with Ramesh Damani ….glad to have caught up with him after awhile…..he presented historical evidence of Global Bull Runs where Indices have zoomed 5x and 6 x in as quick time as 5 years and the biggest of all being 21 x by Nikkei…. says we have commenced one in India from Sensex 17500 levels in August 2013

    Rolling on his thought I asked him that at 28000 currently we are at only 0.6x two years down! so would he hazard a guess where we would be in a few years and would that then make even the passive Index Investing a good if not great Wealth Creation Approach for the next few years

    In lighter vein he stated that he had said 50000! at a Phuket get together organised by Tata Mutual Fund and yes Index Investing would be wise too

    I would say ~ Well look at it this way ! From 17500 to 28000 in two years is @ 25% CAGR on the Sensex and if we keep this up for the next three years we would have crossed 50000 by 2018…..Our Sensex has returned 17% CAGR since inception over 30 years ago though it’s performance has been lower  and erratic in lesser periods of 5 and 10 years.

    Oh by the way Ramesh asserts that Direct Equity first and Index Funds next is the way to go and not Equity Schemes of  Mutual Funds….am completely in sync with him on this

    His pet theme is Pharmaceuticals &  the Digital Story &  those who support E-Commerce Boom like Logistics Players….does not like PSU Banks even at Book or below…gives a thumbs up to Technology & FMCG going forward

    Met Deenaben & Asitbhai Mehta too….she’s a pioneering lady in Indian Broking and  Asitbhai & her are a well respected couple in the field ….owe them at least a  great dinner now for Deenaben proclaiming among 50 present including Pradip Shah(IndAsia),Dilip Piramal(VIP) and Y Trivedi(Reliance)  that I should not be the one asking questions but instead be up there answering them on Wealth Creation through Indian Equities !

    Deenaben you’re too sweet ! thank you for the lovely compliment ! hope you did not see me blush !

    🙂 Her take on the Sensex going forward is quite straightforward and humorous ! “See BJP has 282 Lok Sabha Seats and multiply by 1000 we are at  28200 levels…NDA Coalition has 330 seats so I’m looking now at 33000!”….can’t argue with such funda logic !

    😀 Definitely owe Deenaben & Asitbhai a lovely dinner  and before Sensex reaches 33000 !

    Oh! almost forgot ! as we were leaving,a relatively young gentleman  walks up to me and says ” Sir,I’m a great fan of your blog.It’s one of the best !”…told him to interact through responses on blogposts as I could not recollect the name he gave as being one who has responded before read more