Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

“Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

“Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

 & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

Cheers !

Jio ! Reliance ! Jio! @ Rs 1000

Reliance Underperformance
Reliance Underperformance

Over 2.6 million shareholders retain faith in Reliance Industries despite the clear underperformance  over the years

Tum ‘Jio’ hazaron saal,hazaron kay aar paar ?  🙂

A Dose of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on Future of Equity Market

Methinks every Indian Equity Investor needs a dose of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (RJ) every few years! ~ any sooner it could be an Overdose !  😆 ~ just kidding !

I like the guy ! ~ right since I interacted with him when I invited him around 15 years ago at the turn of this century for interacting in an evening  Q & A session with my packed class of @ 90 participants in my Equity Portfolio Structuring and Stock Analysis Workshop at the BSE Training Institute as I thought he would add practical value & he did

“Boss ! I’m a Sadak Chaap ! ”  he had told us then as also how he had reconstructed his equity portfolio to concentrate only in a few stocks after the 2000 ICE debacle…so in a sense most of his Wealth has grown only in this Millennium in the past 15 years ~ and to his credit in Selections that were not really Blue Chip or Core

Yesterday had gone for an  IMC interactive meet in Mumbai to check out if RJ has sobered & matured in his ‘manner of speak’ over the years ~ I rarely watch Stock Channels ~ don’t even have a TV in office~  so was not really conversant with how & what he delivered in his appearances though knew of his initiating big stakes in companies

I am delighted to blog he has not changed ! ~ shot straight from the hip & mouth again as he always does ” I’m a satodia(translated to mean speculator)  & investor & not an economist” ~ his investment portfolio has spread into the Alternatives of  Bollywood Movie Production too with Kareena & Arjun starrer ‘Ki & Ka’ being his latest co production~ is into horse racing too and owns a few horses ~ passions perhaps where return on investments need not be measured in monies !?

Many perceive him as Dehati or Crude Dude for his rustic loud boorish way of speech~ but don’t let it fool you ! & he does not make any pretenses ~ he’s a CA by training & wears a fairly sharp mind

Money Talks & Crowd Laps it up all !~ many vigorously & ‘knowledgeably’ nodding in agreement

These RJ’s views & responses to questions posed should interest you :

On The Future of Equity Markets ~ Reiterates this is only the Trailer & we are going to witness a Mother of all Bull Runs.India is a thriving young Democracy with US $ 600 b in Savings every year.Equity Markets receive just US $ 50 b from this.This has to improve and it will ~ anyone ,any  doubt!?   

On Returns from Equity  ~ Ironically while his riches have been through multibagger 1000% + equity gains in concentrated high weightage stocks like Titan & Crisil he asserts that one should be happy with 18% CAGR gains and if it goes to 24% one should be really happy

read more

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  1. Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  2. Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  3. Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  4. Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  5. India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  6. Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  7.  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  8. Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  9.  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  10.    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  11. All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  12. Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  13. Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  14. Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end

read more

Essar Oil Delisting is Over or is It !? ~ Glitch or Golmaal !?

Essar Oil Delisting is Over or is It !? ~ Glitch or Golmaal !? 

Yesterday at 3.30 pm was the cut off time for all shares to be tendered in the Essar Oil reverse book building on BSE & NSE

The First criteria for the delisting endeavour to be considered successfull is that  at least a minimum number of 92,569,408 Shares be tendered  in valid bids from the 142489858 Equity Shares being 28.54% of the public shareholding that could

At  Closing 3.30 pm on Monday,December 21,2015  BSE & NSE showed aggregate cumulative bids for 101143045 shares

So then what’s the problem !?

1,98,99,305 shares from 8 bids all at Rs 262.80 are yet showing unconfirmed on the BSE Screen !

Seems there is a Glitch ! or was it a Golmaal !?….if so for what purpose ? …to derail the delisting effort !? If so ,why!?

Seems Ruias of Essar court controversy regularly….either they  follow it or it like a guided missile follows them !  

 The 8 Unconfirmed Bids for Rs 262.80 for 1,98,99,305 shares apparently is from the LIC Holdings of Essar Oil in their various portfolios

If you remove these unconfirmed bids then the valid bids aggregate just 81243740 shares which is short of the 92,569,408 shares requisite

BSE has referred the matter to SEBI for guidance as to whether they should accept the LIC Bids as confirmed and therefore valid….if they say ‘Yes’ and that it was a genuine issue by Stockholding who were unable to upload the bid as confirmed in time by 3.30 pm for LIC then we have the Discovered Price or Exit Price of Rs 262.80 provided this price is accepted by Oil Bidco( Mauritius ) Limited the Acquirer….they can of course offer an even higher price than this to garner more shares

Essar Oil has got to be extremely anxious for delisting….in 2014 I had raised a stink when they set a floor price of just Rs 108….SEBI had to stop the effort…..however they allowed it this time around  with a higher floor price of Rs 146.05….in my view they should not have until the Rosneft Deal price for acquiring 49% stake in Essar Oil which is being negotiated was announced

Essar Oil is anxious that the delisting takes place before the Rosneft deal as otherwise that would have triggered of an Open Offer by Rosneft and would have disturbed the Equity Stake Holdings by Essar Oil Promoters & Rosneft leaving Essar Oil Promoters vulnerable

Whatever ! ~ even if this delisting is allowed with LIC’s bid being accepted at Rs 262.80 the shareholders who bid below this price or the exit price to be announced by Oil Bidco  will also get the Discovered  Price which will now be established at a minimum of Rs 262.80. Oil Bidco can accept this Price or announce a higher one as the Exit Price .It of course can reject it and the delisting would then not have succeeded

read more

Essar Oil Delisting ~ Love the Guy who has tendered at Rs 5630 !

😆 Love the Guy who’s tendered  on NSE for just 25 shares at Rs 5630 in the ongoing Essar Oil Delisting Endeavour !

Look at the NSE Confirmed Demat Shares Tender Position as at 3.30 pm this afternoon

Who in their right mind would tender at Floor Price of Rs 146.05  or even below Rs 200 when current market Price closed at Rs 225 + levels ! ~ Yet some have !

Most No of Tenders so far have come in at Rs 240

Last date is on Monday,December 21,2015

Wonder what LIC will be doing  with their holding !  

Essar Oil Limited

As on 17-Dec-2015 15:30:00 IST

Price

No. of Orders

Demat

Cumulative Demat

 

146.05

14

505

505

 

150.00

1

200

705

 

152.00

1

150

855

 

152.05

1

200

1,055

 

156.00

1

0

1,055

 

160.00

1

175

1,230

 

180.00

1

100

1,330

 

185.00

1

0

1,330

 

190.00

1

0

1,330

 

200.00

7

700

2,030

 

207.00

7

0

2,030

 

209.90

2

7,900

9,930

 

210.00

8

2,705

12,635

 

214.90

2

300

12,935

 

215.00

7

2,02,607

2,15,542

 

218.00

2

400

2,15,942

 

218.20

1

300

2,16,242

 

219.00

1

18,282

2,34,524

 

219.80

2

1,500

2,36,024

 

220.00

19

75,117

3,11,141

 

220.75

1

50

3,11,191

 

222.00

5

80,834

3,92,025

 

223.00

1

0

3,92,025

 

224.00

1

10,000

4,02,025

 

224.80

1

600

4,02,625

 

224.90

1

50

4,02,675

 

225.00

17

42,28,421

46,31,096

 

230.00

19

86,105

47,17,201

 

233.00

2

600

47,17,801

 

235.00

8

26,599

47,44,400

 

236.00

1

20,000

47,64,400

 

238.00

2

2,250

47,66,650

 

239.00

4

10,13,451

57,80,101

 

239.40

1

200

57,80,301

 

239.50

1

1,000

57,81,301

 

239.75

1

100

57,81,401

 

239.80

1

890

57,82,291

 

239.85

1

1,000

57,83,291

 

239.90

1

75,000

58,58,291

 

240.00

197

88,71,013

1,47,29,304

 

242.00

1

0

1,47,29,304

 

245.00

1

250

1,47,29,554

 

250.00

5

1,840

1,47,31,394

 

255.00

1

300

1,47,31,694

 

275.00

1

10,051

1,47,41,745

 

280.00

1

100

1,47,41,845

 

290.00

1

300

1,47,42,145

 

300.00

4

3,340

1,47,45,485

 

325.00

1

200

1,47,45,685

 

330.00

1

729

1,47,46,414

 

350.00

1

1,500

1,47,47,914

 

400.00

1

100

1,47,48,014

 

496.25

1

400

1,47,48,414

 

500.00

2

675

1,47,49,089

 

550.00

1

600

1,47,49,689

 

600.00

1

400

1,47,50,089

 

700.00

2

16,500

1,47,66,589

 

5,630.00

1

25

1,47,66,614

 

If interested check out my earlier blog last week (with updates) for the full Delisting Story

Essar Oil Sets Rs 146.05 As Floor Price For Delisting ~ Critical Questions Remain
December 7th, 2015