Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

“Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

“Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

 & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

Cheers !

Jio ! Reliance ! Jio! @ Rs 1000

Reliance Underperformance
Reliance Underperformance

Over 2.6 million shareholders retain faith in Reliance Industries despite the clear underperformance  over the years

Tum ‘Jio’ hazaron saal,hazaron kay aar paar ?  🙂

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  • Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  • Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  • Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  • Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  • India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  • Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  •  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  • Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  •  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  •    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  • All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  • Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  • Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  • Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end
  • read more

    Essar Oil Delisting is Over or is It !? ~ Glitch or Golmaal !?

    Essar Oil Delisting is Over or is It !? ~ Glitch or Golmaal !? 

    Yesterday at 3.30 pm was the cut off time for all shares to be tendered in the Essar Oil reverse book building on BSE & NSE

    The First criteria for the delisting endeavour to be considered successfull is that  at least a minimum number of 92,569,408 Shares be tendered  in valid bids from the 142489858 Equity Shares being 28.54% of the public shareholding that could

    At  Closing 3.30 pm on Monday,December 21,2015  BSE & NSE showed aggregate cumulative bids for 101143045 shares

    So then what’s the problem !?

    1,98,99,305 shares from 8 bids all at Rs 262.80 are yet showing unconfirmed on the BSE Screen !

    Seems there is a Glitch ! or was it a Golmaal !?….if so for what purpose ? …to derail the delisting effort !? If so ,why!?

    Seems Ruias of Essar court controversy regularly….either they  follow it or it like a guided missile follows them !  

     The 8 Unconfirmed Bids for Rs 262.80 for 1,98,99,305 shares apparently is from the LIC Holdings of Essar Oil in their various portfolios

    If you remove these unconfirmed bids then the valid bids aggregate just 81243740 shares which is short of the 92,569,408 shares requisite

    BSE has referred the matter to SEBI for guidance as to whether they should accept the LIC Bids as confirmed and therefore valid….if they say ‘Yes’ and that it was a genuine issue by Stockholding who were unable to upload the bid as confirmed in time by 3.30 pm for LIC then we have the Discovered Price or Exit Price of Rs 262.80 provided this price is accepted by Oil Bidco( Mauritius ) Limited the Acquirer….they can of course offer an even higher price than this to garner more shares

    Essar Oil has got to be extremely anxious for delisting….in 2014 I had raised a stink when they set a floor price of just Rs 108….SEBI had to stop the effort…..however they allowed it this time around  with a higher floor price of Rs 146.05….in my view they should not have until the Rosneft Deal price for acquiring 49% stake in Essar Oil which is being negotiated was announced

    Essar Oil is anxious that the delisting takes place before the Rosneft deal as otherwise that would have triggered of an Open Offer by Rosneft and would have disturbed the Equity Stake Holdings by Essar Oil Promoters & Rosneft leaving Essar Oil Promoters vulnerable

    Whatever ! ~ even if this delisting is allowed with LIC’s bid being accepted at Rs 262.80 the shareholders who bid below this price or the exit price to be announced by Oil Bidco  will also get the Discovered  Price which will now be established at a minimum of Rs 262.80. Oil Bidco can accept this Price or announce a higher one as the Exit Price .It of course can reject it and the delisting would then not have succeeded read more

    Essar Oil Delisting ~ Love the Guy who has tendered at Rs 5630 !

    😆 Love the Guy who’s tendered  on NSE for just 25 shares at Rs 5630 in the ongoing Essar Oil Delisting Endeavour !

    Look at the NSE Confirmed Demat Shares Tender Position as at 3.30 pm this afternoon

    Who in their right mind would tender at Floor Price of Rs 146.05  or even below Rs 200 when current market Price closed at Rs 225 + levels ! ~ Yet some have !

    Most No of Tenders so far have come in at Rs 240

    Last date is on Monday,December 21,2015

    Wonder what LIC will be doing  with their holding !  

    Essar Oil Limited

    As on 17-Dec-2015 15:30:00 IST

    Price

    No. of Orders

    Demat

    Cumulative Demat

     

    146.05

    14

    505

    505

     

    150.00

    1

    200

    705

     

    152.00

    1

    150

    855

     

    152.05

    1

    200

    1,055

     

    156.00

    1

    0

    1,055

     

    160.00

    1

    175

    1,230

     

    180.00

    1

    100

    1,330

     

    185.00

    1

    0

    1,330

     

    190.00

    1

    0

    1,330

     

    200.00

    7

    700

    2,030

     

    207.00

    7

    0

    2,030

     

    209.90

    2

    7,900

    9,930

     

    210.00

    8

    2,705

    12,635

     

    214.90

    2

    300

    12,935

     

    215.00

    7

    2,02,607

    2,15,542

     

    218.00

    2

    400

    2,15,942

     

    218.20

    1

    300

    2,16,242

     

    219.00

    1

    18,282

    2,34,524

     

    219.80

    2

    1,500

    2,36,024

     

    220.00

    19

    75,117

    3,11,141

     

    220.75

    1

    50

    3,11,191

     

    222.00

    5

    80,834

    3,92,025

     

    223.00

    1

    0

    3,92,025

     

    224.00

    1

    10,000

    4,02,025

     

    224.80

    1

    600

    4,02,625

     

    224.90

    1

    50

    4,02,675

     

    225.00

    17

    42,28,421

    46,31,096

     

    230.00

    19

    86,105

    47,17,201

     

    233.00

    2

    600

    47,17,801

     

    235.00

    8

    26,599

    47,44,400

     

    236.00

    1

    20,000

    47,64,400

     

    238.00

    2

    2,250

    47,66,650

     

    239.00

    4

    10,13,451

    57,80,101

     

    239.40

    1

    200

    57,80,301

     

    239.50

    1

    1,000

    57,81,301

     

    239.75

    1

    100

    57,81,401

     

    239.80

    1

    890

    57,82,291

     

    239.85

    1

    1,000

    57,83,291

     

    239.90

    1

    75,000

    58,58,291

     

    240.00

    197

    88,71,013

    1,47,29,304

     

    242.00

    1

    0

    1,47,29,304

     

    245.00

    1

    250

    1,47,29,554

     

    250.00

    5

    1,840

    1,47,31,394

     

    255.00

    1

    300

    1,47,31,694

     

    275.00

    1

    10,051

    1,47,41,745

     

    280.00

    1

    100

    1,47,41,845

     

    290.00

    1

    300

    1,47,42,145

     

    300.00

    4

    3,340

    1,47,45,485

     

    325.00

    1

    200

    1,47,45,685

     

    330.00

    1

    729

    1,47,46,414

     

    350.00

    1

    1,500

    1,47,47,914

     

    400.00

    1

    100

    1,47,48,014

     

    496.25

    1

    400

    1,47,48,414

     

    500.00

    2

    675

    1,47,49,089

     

    550.00

    1

    600

    1,47,49,689

     

    600.00

    1

    400

    1,47,50,089

     

    700.00

    2

    16,500

    1,47,66,589

     

    5,630.00

    1

    25

    1,47,66,614

     

    If interested check out my earlier blog last week (with updates) for the full Delisting Story

    Essar Oil Sets Rs 146.05 As Floor Price For Delisting ~ Critical Questions Remain
    December 7th, 2015

     

    Essar Oil sets Rs 146.05 as Floor Price for delisting ~ Critical Questions remain

    Essar Oil sets Rs 146.05 as Floor Price for delisting ~ Current Market Price is @ Rs 210 ~ What will be the discovered price ?

    Some Critical Questions yet in the air

    1. Six Years ago,LIC had picked up Rs 300 crs+ of Essar Oil in January 2010 at Rs 140 a share ~ Will they be participating in the delisting exercise and at what price? ~ assuming 15% CAGR the price is Rs 320+ ~ hope they support the concerns and interests of the smaller Minority shareholders ~ nasty suspicion that they will not and it’s probably a done deal between Essar Group and them !
    2. Essar Oil Promoter Group Companies have committed, as per SEBI Order in November 2015 that cleared the controversial delisting,that they will going forward pay also any difference incremental between Rosneft Deal price (yet being negotiated) and the actual delisting price .However this commitment is only to those who’s shares have been accepted in this delisting exercise ! What then is the fate of those minority shareholders who do not participate in this delisting exercise or who’s shares are not accepted!?
    3. SEBI Order gets Essar Group Price Differential Commitment only for  stake sell to Rosneft being negotiated ! ~ What if Essar Group does  stake sale  to any other instead !? ~ Recent News Reports talks of interest from others

    SEBI & Essar Group need to clarify on Points 2 & 3 above

    In fact SEBI should have only given the green signal for delisting once the Rosneft Deal Price was declared

    Check out my below blogposts right from June 2014 where I have strongly raised these issues and more to highlight how Essar Group cares little for Minority Shareholder Interests.

    If Essar Group  had had their way they would have delisted at a pathetic floor price of Rs 108 last year  ~ In a sense these shares would be then have been on their way to being offloaded to Rosneft at twice or thrice the price !

        

    Essar Oil surges to Rs 200+ on SEBI Order for Delisting~5 Questions for SEBI!

    Monday, November 9th, 2015

    Essar Oil kissing Rs 200 ! ~ Exposes Delisting Duplicity !

    Monday, July 20th, 2015

    Essar Oil on Fire at Rs 167 after delisting natak last year at Rs 108

    Monday, July 6th, 2015

    Covered by Outlook Business for frowning on Essar Oil Delisting

    Wednesday, July 23rd, 2014

    LIC will never go Public & Essar Oil wants to go Private ! ~ What is the Connection !?

    Saturday, June 21st, 2014

    Update on Tuesday,December 8,2015

    The Delisting Opens on December 15,2015  and closes on December 21,2015

    All those who held the share on December 5,2015 will be dispatched the Offer Documents on December 11,2015

    Should a Holder participate in this Delisting  & if so at what Price should he tender ?

    This is where the SEBI Order is flawed ! because it closes the door to public shareholders leaving them no option but to tender the shares in the Delisting Offer !

    Why?

    Because if  a shareholder does not tender in the delisting offer or tenders at above the discovered price to be announced by Promoter on December 30,2015 and his tendered price is not the Exit Price and the Promoter accepts the Discovered Price or offer an Exit Price at it’s discretion even above the Discovered Price but below shareholders tendered price then his shares will not be accepted

    Staying away from the Delisting Offer or having tendered shares rejected in the delisting will disqualify the Shareholder from receiving any incremental between Rosneft Deal Price going forward if higher than Exit Price announced by Promoter in this Delisting

    Such a Shareholder will thus get only the Delisting Exit Price going forward

    On more thing I reiterate ! What if there is no Rosneft Deal but Essar Oil enters into a deal with some other Entity for a strategic stake !? Then the committment by Promoters for any Incremental payable to Shareholders will be off ! as SEBI Order merely mentions such a committment for only a potential Rosneft Deal going forward

    The Delisting can only fail if all public shareholders unite and not tender or tender at a much higher Price in excess of Rs 300 or Rs 350 perhaps ! read more