Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

“Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

“Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

 & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

Cheers !

Sterlite Tech Shareholders short circuited in the Demerger ! ?

Sterlite Technologies (STL) Shareholders short circuited in the Demerger ! ?

I was approached to buy some unlisted shares of Sterlite Power Transmission Ltd (SPTL) & then was astounded when told an offer had already come in for Rs 270 already !

So what’s the Big Issue ? ~ How Can the Value of unlisted SPTL change dramatically upward by over 300% from Rs 112.30( as on March 31,2015 cut off date) that the company offered for in the demerger of STL  and paid in August 2016 & just eight months later value the same atR s 464.46 ! on March 2,2017 when they announced an EGM for March 29,2017 to issue new shares !(Details Below)

It’s thus  to do with the low Valuation of unlisted SPTL as on cut off date March 31,2015 that was the subsidiary of listed STL that got the Power Division of  STL in the Demerger & then ceased to be a subsidiary post demerger.

Haribhakti & Co LLC did the valuation on a NAV (for Holding Co) & Income DCF Approach (for Operations) at a maximum of  Rs 111.50 /share.Price Waterhouse & Co LLC also used similar Valuation approach and got  mariginally higher Maximum Valuation of Rs 112.30.Both had valued SPTL below Rs 900 crs only ! despite Income Approach having to consider Potential of Scale Operations in coming years.Both Valuation Reports are dated May 18,2015 in sync with STL Board Meeting Date as below.STL has gone with PWC

These are the relevant Dates  & all relevant documents for Shareholder/Court/Exchanges Permissions & Approvals can be found here :

May 18,2015 ~ Board of STL in a corporate restructuring decision approves the Scheme of Arrangement between the Demerged Company STL & Resulting Company SPTL (then subsidiary of STL)effective date April 1,2015.Decides to keep SPTL unlisted unlike the Adani Group that listed Adani Transmission after their restructuring exercise

December 15,2015~ Court Convened Meeting of STL Shareholders passes the Scheme

April 22,2016 ~ Mumbai High Court issues an Order approving the Scheme

May 23,2016 ~ Order becomes effective on date of filing with Registrar of Companies

June 15 & 16,2016 ~ STL begins ex demerger quote on June 15,2016 as Company has set June 16,2016 as record date for STL shareholders entitled to receive Demerger benefits of SPTL.SPTL ceased to be a subsidiary of STL on this Demerger & it was decided to keep it unlisted unlike the Adani Group which demerged & listed Adani Transmission.

June 27, 2016 to August 8,2016 ~ Election Date Range for @ 122000 shareholders in STL up from under 120000 shareholders at June 30,2015 when the Demerger plans were announced in May 2015 and I wrote a detailed blogpost in July 2015 (see later below) .There were two options for Resident Shareholders ~ receive Equity Shares of  SPTL at Rs 112.30 (FV Rs 2) in a 1: 5 ratio for shares held in STL or go for the 8% Preference reedeemable shares of Rs 112.30 in the same 1: 5 ratio that would be reedeemed at Rs 125.55 in eighteen months from allottment.FPI/FIIs?Non Resident shareholders had to sell their shares back to the Promoters or their affiliates.

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Opprobrium~Harsh Censure~ Charlie Munger thrashes Valeant Pharma calling it a sewer

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger

Came across the use of Opprobrium in context of the shaming the conduct of  Valeant Pharmaceuticals, once the darling of Wall Street

It stands for Harsh Criticism or Censure or public disgrace for shameful conduct…. Valeant has been accused of Price gouging, secret network of speciality pharmacies & fraud  

Always loved the Bluntness of Charlie Munger ,Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.He’s 92 now and his words carry huge weight

Yesterday at BH’s AGM in Omaha,both Warren Buffett & he took on pre-selected questions for several hours.This Q & A is one of the most awaited sessions at the AGM

A question was asked on Sequoia’s Investment in the embattled Valeant Pharmaceuticals.Warren likes Sequoia but their decision to invest in Valeant was unfortunate  & the manager who made that decision has been fired

Here’s what both Buffett & Munger said on Valeant yesterday

Charlie Munger ~ “Valeant of course was a Sewer and those who are directors deserve all the OPPROBRIUM they’re getting”  

Warren Buffett ~ In my view the Business Model of Valeant was enormously flawed…….one can see patterns of ‘Chain Letter’ Wall Street Schemes….If you’re looking for a manager you want someone who is intelligent, energetic, and moral.But if they don’t have the last one, you don’t want them to have the first two”

In 2015 William Ackman whose Pershing Square Fund has been much maligned for supporting Valeant and taking a huge equity position of @ 9% equity stake in it had sought Warren Buffett’s help in seeking an appointment with Charlie Munger with the then CEO of Valeant,Michael Pearson.Buffett directed Ackman to connect directly with Munger. Munger did not respond…..Pearson is just out and Valeant has a new CEO Joe Pappa

Valeant Pharma’s Share Price  is just under US $ 34 today with a fallen market cap of US $ 11.45 b.It’s crashed from a 52 Week High of US $ 263.81 ! but up from a 52 week low of @ US $ 25

Interestingly,Aswath Damodaran,the Valuation Guru has recently worked out a Value of US $ 43.66 for Valeant with Share Price level at US $ 32 and thinks it’s an emphatic buy ofcourse with caveat.He has taken a position

This has always been my pet theme of debate with many who grudgingly respect my principles but in the same breath think I’m foolish to let go a brilliant investment opportunity !

“Should you always shun a Company which has demonstrated serious lapses on Corporate Governance even if the Share Price & Objective Valuation beckon to buy?”

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Kotak Group again enters beleaguered Diamond Power Infra at Rs 23.65 ~ Why?

Kotak Group enters beleaguered Diamond Power Infra at Rs 23.65 ~ Why? ~ their Mutual Fund  had been selling since August 2015 !

On March 30,2016 Kotak Mahindra (International) Ltd a FPI & a subsidiary of Kotak Mahindra Bank picked up 3868606 (6.787%) stake in Diamond Power Infrastructure at Rs 23.65 from Macquarie Bank.Deal Size thus was Rs 9.14 cr with Macquarie exiting fully

Why did Kotak buy in ! ~ as just a month ago the Trustee of Kotak Growth Fund II & PAC had notified the Exchanges that from August 2015 to March 2016 the Fund had sold 1215382 shares ( 2.13% stake) from the 3002946 shares held (5.27% stake).Over 2% had changed hands on March 2,2016 …unless these were inter scheme or within group transfers by the Mutual Fund

The above Notifications already were on the Exchanges websites but only today has the Counter seen a smart rise by over 15% to register a days’s high till now of Rs 27.95.At 12.40 pm it’s trading higher at 12% at Rs 26.60. Trading Volumes have been below One lakh most days in the Year but till now they have crossed 4 lakh on BSE and 18 lakhs on NSE

Diamond Power Infra is an interesting & intriguing case study.It’s been a rapid Wealth Destroyer of 75%  inside five months from Rs 143 levels in November 2014 to Rs 37 in March 2015 …it never was a 24 Carat Diamond ! but you can say it had all but lost whatever Carats it was ! 

Over 10 years ago  in 2005 Diamond Cables (IPO at Rs 10 par way back in August 1993),the earlier name of Diamond Power Infra, was trading low at @ Rs 17 and I spotted a turnaround when it  notified the BSE that they had the second largest cable capacity after Sterlite but were functioning at just @ 15 % capacity due to a working capital crunch.It was negotiating to receive both loan & equity support from Clearwater Capital Partners.The Deal for Zero Interest FCDs & Warrants was announced a year later in August 2006 when Price levels had shot up to Rs 60 and CCP would be getting the shares at Rs 95 on conversion…Then the Share Price simply went into 10 Bagger space inside two years recording highs of Rs 589 in 2007 & Rs 599 in 2008…. I had not waited for these record highs……. so the real wealth Destruction has been immense at the extreme of 96% from Rs 599 to Rs 22 !….even adjusting for 1: 3 Bonus in August 2013,the destruction is 95%!….CCP brought some more at fallen levels of Rs 160 levels 2010.It exited at a Loss in  June 2014 at Rs 90  & just a few months ago at a bigger Loss in December 2015 at Rs 42.68

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Sterlite Tech upwardly mobile @ Rs 104+ on the Digital India & Demerging Power Story

Sterlite Tech closed strongly upwardly mobile @ Rs 104+

It clearly continues to benefit from Government’s scaling up the National Optical Fiber Network (NOFN) Initiative and the ‘Digital India’ Story unfolding

However an interesting development announced in May was the demerging of it’s capital intensive and yet to contribute to profits Power Segment

The Power Segment is being demerged as of April 15,2015 into a separate company Sterlite Power Transmission Ltd which will remain unlisted

Each Shareholder will get an option to remain invested also in the Power Co or exit it.For every 5 shares held in Sterlite Tech,the Shareholder will get the options of 1 share valued at Rs 112.30 (FV Rs 2) or 1 redeemable preference share for the same value which will be redeemed within 30 days.

The demerged entity will be worth Rs 885 crs after considering debt allocation.This would compute to a Value of Rs 22.46 per Share of Sterlite Tech

Chairman Anil Agarwal states that Sterlite Technologies is at a unique inflection point

When I did the Segment Analysis ,observed that while the FY 15 Topline of @ Rs 3000 crs is more or less evenly split between Telecom & Power,76% of the Segment EBITA of Rs 327 crs comes from Telecom (Rs 249 crs)

Importantly after the demerger of the Power Segnent ,Sterlite Tech will retain just Rs 674 crs  consolidated net debt from the pre-re-structuring consolidated net debt of Rs 4881 crs

With Equity at Rs 79 crs (FV Rs 2) and with the capacity expansion plans one should expect surge in profitability which was being dragged down in the near term by the Power Segment …EBITA over Rs 300 crs for the Telecom Business in FY 16 is on the cards

There is an enabling resolution proposed for Borrowings up to Rs 1000 crs

At Rs 104,the ex demerger price works out to under Rs 82 if opting for exiting the Power business though there’s a few months to go before the demerger is effected

My sense is that whenever the record date is announced in FY 16 for the demerger  and trading switches to an ex demerger  basis just a few days prior,the ex demerger share price will quickly climb back to the cum demerger share price

Though I have had serious reservations on Corporate Governance issues with the Vedanta Group  whenever they have restructured through merging group entitities ,I quite agree with the Chairman,Anil Agarwal that Sterlite Technologies is at an inflection point …and ironically it involves not a merger but a demerger situation !

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Union Budget 2014 ~ Will Sensex continue to Humour as Jaitley does not!

Have a look at our first impression posted  after our FM ‘s Union Budget Address and during market hours

Union Budget 2014 ~ Will Sensex continue to Humour as Jaitley does not!

Think he missed a great opportunity to provide us with the ‘Naya Soch’ of the new NDA Government

His Speech stated quite a few challenges and objectives like tackling Black Monies,raising Tax to GDP ratio,lowering Inflation and Fiscal Deficit % but stopped short of spelling out the specifics of solving these

Having just 45 days after NDA was elected he has opted for the easier option of simply following the UPA budget process and numbers too that the UPA FM Mr Chidambaram laid out in his Interim Budget in February 2014….whether it be Disinvestment or Tax Receipts or Fiscal Deficit Control Targets…made right noises but was tokenism in a few areas like social expenditure…thankfully nothing really adverse or anti poor though direct tax incentives are not really cause for any celebration

Sensex had quite a roller coaster ride today as to be expected….opening stable & pre budget speech at 25514 in the morning then sliding before noon over 300 points to 25117 from yesterday closing of 25445 during the budget speech before strongly racing away by over 700 points to 25920 …over 400 points previous day closing post budget speech only to reverse all the gains and close at 25373,down 72 points  from previous day closing

Will the Sensex continue to Humor us in the near term despite not an iota of Humor in the FM’s Speech !? …sense is that any correction will be a hiccup on the onward march towards 30000 on the back of increased FII Net Infows & Big Corporate Infra spending  

I see some clear big winners in the Infrastructure Space across the Board from Shipping to Power to SEZs to Real Estate to Highway Road Construction Companies and Pipeline Companies