Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

“Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

“Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

 & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

Cheers !

Toll Free Court Order has Noida Toll Bridge Toiling down over 35% to Rs 14

Disclaimer at the Outset ~ This Blogpost is not a Recommendation but only an endeavour to interpret what is in the public domain given the latest developments  & to thus spell out risks that have played up.I intend to showcase this at my Equity Training Sessions 

Toll Free Court Order has Noida Toll Bridge Toiling down over 35% to Rs 14

I have never been a fan of Noida Toll Bridge for many years now for two straight reasons :

1-Corporate Governance ~ In November 1997 a Service Concession Agreement for the Noida Toll Bride and Mayur Vihar Link Road was entered into by the Company,it’s promoter IL & FS & NOIDA,UP Govt.Its been a huge controversy since inception in both granting the Concession to IL & FS company Noida Toll Bridge & the subsequent padding of  recoverable Project Cost which incredulously kept being padded every year even after completion because of the absolutely deliberately lenient Agreement Terms that allowed this for any designated returns ( a high 20% pa) that were not attained in the year.There was no cap on Operational Costs too in the Agreement & this allowed the Company to present poor returns and thus pad up project costs to be recovered.Much of the Operational Costs found their way into higher Salaries,Commissions & Perks for the retired IAS Officers who had founded IL & FS and this Company. The Spirit of the PPP was severely dented .Private Benefits at the expense of the Public.Project Costs that should have been @ Rs 200 crs balloned to over Rs 408 crs & then padded up to over Rs 1000 crs !….it was a unprecedented CAGR of designated returns yet to be recovered ! that allowed the company to collect till infinity even beyond the at least 30 year concession granted in the November 1997 agreement.It was only last year on July 9,2015 a modified agreement froze the amount payable as on March 31,2011 & terminates the Agreement on March 31,2031.The Company also has development rights under the Agreement but it has not yet recognised these in their Financial Statements.These could amount to Hundreds of Crores in itself.

2-I saw it as a range bound stock with no serious capital appreciation and just dividend yield, as it’s model was simply just toll collection &  then dividend payments once it broke out in 2010.Predictable Flows & DCF captured the range valuation. The expectations of non linear flows through recognition of Development Rights did inflate share price once or twice but till date this has not happened & given Allahabad court order to stop charging user fees now arises a ? mark if at all will they arise.The Court however has upheld the Concession Agreement but ruled inoperative the collection of any levy or Toll Fee

read more

Insider in NBCC ?

Insider Trading in NBCC?

Check this BSE Trading Data past few days

NBCC BSE Trades

On Tuesday,July 5,2016 the Volume was just @ 86k & price closed at Rs 195.40…next day was EID Holiday…Thursday the Volumes jumped up over 10x to 953k shares & share price surged to close at Rs 215.30…till yesterday the surge continued with price closing at Rs 257.40

Today,Wednesday,July 13,2016 The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs chaired by the PM cleared the disinvestment of 15% Govt stake in NBCC   ….the price dropped sharply to close at Rs 229.80,down 10.72% from yesterday’s close and down 13.93% from intra-day high of Rs 267

Deliveries which earlier in the month were one third of Trading volumes dropped below 20% last few days on surging volumes

Someone has taken advantage of prior knowledge last week that there was a CCEA meeting scheduled today and this NBCC Disinvestment was on the agenda

Overnight Volumes don’t jump 10 x & 20 x & are accompanied by surging share price without some inside knowledge…one cannot tag off such huge Volume Surges as mere speculation on ‘Buy/Trade on Information & Sell on News’

The Government’s official Press Release today mentions estimated receipts of this 15% disinvestment at Rs 1706 crs…This indicates a Price of @ Rs 190 per share for the 9 cr shares they plan to disinvest…This Price was available only in the first few days of July this month….so this proposal was formulated then for the CCEA Meeting .There are no immediate pre meeting media reports or govt releases announcing the agenda for today’s meeting…so how did Volumes surge dramatically?….if there were such pre releases then one can concede that aggressive big punters  & their circle of followers were taking & making a quick bet like many do on expectations of company results before they are actually made public on or after the announced day of the Board Meeting to approve the same

NBCC’s capital is Rs 120 crs of FV Rs 2 (just split last month from FV Rs 10)  of which Govt owns 90% or 54 cr shares.in 2012 it had disinvested 10% (1.2 cr shares of FV Rs 10)through an IPO at Rs 106 to get Rs 127.20 crs…adjusted for current FV 2 comparison  this IPO was at Rs 21.2

Quick Inside Game for a Quick Big Buck through abnormal Volumes…..If the Insiders have won then who are the Outsider suckers?…are there really any or are these just created volumes or the Insiders have lost out on this ?…Insider Trading can backfire at times you know…

read more

Indiabulls Ventures Ltd at Rs 33~ Up 100% in a month ~ More in Store?

Indiabulls Ventures Ltd at Rs 33~ Up 100% in a month ~ More in Store? ~ 52 Week high was Rs 39+ a year ago in July 2015 & 52 Week Low was Rs 13 this April 2016

The Market Cap from @ Rs 500 crs a month ago is now kissing Rs 1000 crs

It was earlier called Indiabulls Securities Ltd

The uptick has been brilliant in quick time & the writing has been on the wall..read that as Company Notifications on the BSE & NSE in the past few months

May 13,2016 ~ Granting of 9.5 Million Stock Options at an exercise price of Rs 16(current price at the time) under the ESOS 2009

June 15,2016 ~ Board Approval of a Preferential Issue of  58.3 m Convertible Warrants to Promoters & CEO at exercise price of Rs 19.75

June 20,2016 ~ EGM Notice for July 15,2016 to pass the Preferential Issue as above & SALE OF INVESTMENT 

July 2,2016 ~ Granting of 19.7 M Stock Options at an exercise price of Rs 24.15(price a few days ago) under ESOSs 2008 & 2009

So what’s the Big Deal ?

Big Deal is being planned to happen & that’s disclosed in the June 20,2016 Notification of SALE OF INVESTMENT for improving liquidity & reduction of debt purpose which is Item No 2 and relevant part extracted as below

“….to sell upto 100% of shares held by Indiabulls Distribution Services Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“IDSL”), in India Land and Properties Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of IDSL, on the terms and conditions, including the consideration, which shall be more than the amount invested by IDSL, in such shares, as the Board may finalize” 

This actually is the Sale of One Indiabulls Park,Ambattur,Chennai which was bought in November 2014 at @ Rs 600 crs from Madrid Based NRI Investor Harish Fabiani (he’s also invested in Edelweiss & Indiabulls Group Companies + others)

FY 15 Consolidated Accounts as on March 31,2015

Consolidated FY 15 Accounts of Indiabulls Ventures Ltd shows Net Fixed Tangible Assets at Rs 550 crs  of which 77% is this Property reflected  with a aggregate value of Rs 426 crs ~ Rs 320 crs for the Building + Rs 15 crs for Furniture + Rs 91 crs for Plant & Machinery

Long Term Debt at March 31,2015 was Rs 331 crs ,all of which relating to the One Indiabull Park Property ~ 150 crs 10 year (monthly EMI) Lease Rental Discounting Facility + Rs 185 crs 5 year Loan Against Property

FY 15 also shows Goodwill on Consolidation of Rs 109 crs,most of which is related to this property acquisition by subsidiaries

FY 16 Consolidated Accounts as on March 31,2016 reveal :

read more

A Dose of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on Future of Equity Market

Methinks every Indian Equity Investor needs a dose of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (RJ) every few years! ~ any sooner it could be an Overdose !  😆 ~ just kidding !

I like the guy ! ~ right since I interacted with him when I invited him around 15 years ago at the turn of this century for interacting in an evening  Q & A session with my packed class of @ 90 participants in my Equity Portfolio Structuring and Stock Analysis Workshop at the BSE Training Institute as I thought he would add practical value & he did

“Boss ! I’m a Sadak Chaap ! ”  he had told us then as also how he had reconstructed his equity portfolio to concentrate only in a few stocks after the 2000 ICE debacle…so in a sense most of his Wealth has grown only in this Millennium in the past 15 years ~ and to his credit in Selections that were not really Blue Chip or Core

Yesterday had gone for an  IMC interactive meet in Mumbai to check out if RJ has sobered & matured in his ‘manner of speak’ over the years ~ I rarely watch Stock Channels ~ don’t even have a TV in office~  so was not really conversant with how & what he delivered in his appearances though knew of his initiating big stakes in companies

I am delighted to blog he has not changed ! ~ shot straight from the hip & mouth again as he always does ” I’m a satodia(translated to mean speculator)  & investor & not an economist” ~ his investment portfolio has spread into the Alternatives of  Bollywood Movie Production too with Kareena & Arjun starrer ‘Ki & Ka’ being his latest co production~ is into horse racing too and owns a few horses ~ passions perhaps where return on investments need not be measured in monies !?

Many perceive him as Dehati or Crude Dude for his rustic loud boorish way of speech~ but don’t let it fool you ! & he does not make any pretenses ~ he’s a CA by training & wears a fairly sharp mind

Money Talks & Crowd Laps it up all !~ many vigorously & ‘knowledgeably’ nodding in agreement

These RJ’s views & responses to questions posed should interest you :

On The Future of Equity Markets ~ Reiterates this is only the Trailer & we are going to witness a Mother of all Bull Runs.India is a thriving young Democracy with US $ 600 b in Savings every year.Equity Markets receive just US $ 50 b from this.This has to improve and it will ~ anyone ,any  doubt!?   

On Returns from Equity  ~ Ironically while his riches have been through multibagger 1000% + equity gains in concentrated high weightage stocks like Titan & Crisil he asserts that one should be happy with 18% CAGR gains and if it goes to 24% one should be really happy

read more

Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

Seems to get bigger & better every time !

Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

Sunday, August 16th, 2015

Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

@ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  !

read more