Looooooooong Full House Saturday Equity Mumbai Workshop Sept 14 2019
It was a looooooooong,should have held it over two days, Full House Equity Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,September 14,2019 with a whole spectrum of smart participants that made for really invigorating interaction ~they came from Mumbai,Gurgaon & Pune ~ from young upwardly mobile grads & post grads from top ranked Management Institutes in India,UK (London) & USA(Harvard) to ‘ well tuned in’ professionals from the IT ,Consultancy,Broking,Corporate & Banking Sectors to veteran high networth investors . We commenced at 9.30 am & concluded well beyond 7.30 pm ~ 🙂 should have arranged dinner too
Thank you Guys !
Here are a few candid clicks from the Workshop :
The Coverage was expansive & the Interaction from Participants very intelligent & which opened out many threads that we examined with anecdotal support . When analysing a company ,they asked what is “Non Negotiable” & “How to have Foresight as on Hindsight we are always right”
Really a lot was covered ,some of which is below :
- Macros through :
- Examining the Equity Table’s four legs of Valuation,Liquidity,Momentum & Sentiment & the Impact of FPI Flows ~ when Valuation,which should be the strongest leg,sometimes takes a back seat as Liquidity or even a lack of it drives the momentum & sentiment
- Not getting Seduced by any Bounce at Friday closing Sensex 37385 & Nifty 11076 Levels as Caution is strongly indicated by domestic & overseas economy & geo-political headwinds
- Negative Interest Rates Era vs the Magic of Compounding in such meltdowns
- Sensex & Earnings & Market Cap & low GDP growth Dynamics on Levels & Valuations ~ Past,Present & Forward & why downside risk remains wide open while the upside appears capped for now ~ we referred to 1991/92 abnormally high Sensex PE pre Harshad Mehta Scam exposure & the High PE in 2000 with Ketan Parekh was in action & where the markets were clearing running ahead of fundamentals by huge margins~ we referred to the Sensex PE of just 6 in the late 1980s when VP Singh was the PM 1988~ we covered Mkt Cap/GDP Highs pre Lehman collapse in 2007/8 & the levels now
- Fx Reserves & Exchange Rate Risk & the Risk of increasing Sovereign Debt as planned by Government ~ How our Rupee has always had a South trajectory,except when it soared from Rs 49 to the US $ to Rs 39 to the US $ creating havoc especially in the Diamond Sector
- Why Inversely co-related Gold & US $ are moving up together instead
- Turm-Oil & Impact on Fiscal Deficit & Rupee like last happened in 2007/8( On Saturday at the workshop we were not yet clued in to the Drone Attack on the Oil Refinery in Saudi Arabia that saw Oil Prices dangerously soar 20% in spot) ~ India is hugely dependent on Oil Imports
- Interest & Inflation rates
- Trump ~ Not sure if he’s a macro or micro factor !
- Micros through many companies & sector dynamics covering :
- Checklist on how to Smartly & Effectively & thus Quickly Read a voluminous Annual Report
- Our Five Steps for Evaluating a Company for Investment
- Impact on the Financial Statements in Scenarios like Buy Back,Rights Issues,Fictitious Sales,RBI issuing a divergence on Provisioning for NPAs,non linear jump in Sales Realisations,5 G Spectrum Fees,Permanent Diminution in Investments,Monetising Assets & Depreciation of the Rupee
- Quick Brief on Absolute & Relative Valuation & how to prepare a quick Valuation Grid from the Annual Report, Market Price Trends & Shareholding
- Why Liquidity more than Profitability is the ‘Circle of Life’ for a Company as viewed through the lens of the Cash Flow Statement dervived from the Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss Ac & that distinguishes operating,financing & investing flows
- Corporate Governance Issues on inadequate Disclosure or Non Disclosure, Incorrect & questionable Accounting Treatment & Lack of Transparency & irresponsible (deliberate?) Management utterances that give a leg to Insider Trading & huge Profits through Derivatives Play
- Courage & Conviction Promoter or Institutional recent Buying in Vodafone,Yes Bank,I B Real Estate & Tata Motors & seeing more wealth destruction since in these
- Basis for Disclaimer of Opinion by the Auditor of Reliance Infrastructure & what holds out some hope
- Intangibles,Investments & Impairments
- Reliance Industries’s Enterprise Value,Revenue Segments Potential,Spin offs of the Jio Telecom Infra into two trusts, Aramco’s 20% stake being negotiated in the Refining,Petroleum Retailing & Petrochemicals Business that should lead to further demerger & reviving & scaling the Gas Exploration Operations
- How Defaults & Corporate Governance Issues decimated into or near oblivion Eros,Cox & Kings,ManPasand,Tree House Education,Satyam,Jet Airways,Kingfisher & Talwalkars & is there any hope of operational & share price recovery with Asset values holding out some hope in a few ~ How Clearly the Statutory Auditors & Credit Rating Agencies were negligent or intentionally turned a blind eye in many cases
- Huge Potential Outlay of the ‘Nal sey Jal’ Scheme of the Government & the new Jal Shakti Ministry focus that should benefit many companies if the implementation & execution is as noteworthy as the intent
- How IndAs 115 continues to affect Bombay Dyeing
- How Exchanges continue to accept outright untrue or tepid clarifications from Companies
- Reference to Investment Gurus & Living Legends Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch Approaches & Success
- Coverage of a few sectors like Defence, Hydrocarbons,Broking,Telecom,Real Estate,NBFCs,Banks & Automobiles & Disruption that’s in play in many
- Consolidation & Capitalisation of PSU Banks & the controversial Acquisition of Laxmi Vilas Bank by I B Housing Finance pending RBI approval
- Common Investor Mistakes
The next Equity Workshop is scheduled pre-Diwali for Saturday ,October 19,2019 & will be announced soon on www.jsalphaa.com & social media
Touched by some warm & constructive feedback from participants :
- “thanks for a lovely interactive session…”
- “enjoyed your session yday”
- “it was great to meet again & reskill to be better prepared for opportunities which would arise”
- “Thanks for being the Enabler,the last few days have been very encouraging”
- “Cover the Scenarios Exercise more with Investor focus than just on Accounting Impact & take in a few Annual Reports before Lunch”
😆 & I swear I did not pay for these ones !