Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

“Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

“Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

 & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

Cheers !

Jio ! Reliance ! Jio! @ Rs 1000

Reliance Underperformance
Reliance Underperformance

Over 2.6 million shareholders retain faith in Reliance Industries despite the clear underperformance  over the years

Tum ‘Jio’ hazaron saal,hazaron kay aar paar ?  🙂

A Dose of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on Future of Equity Market

Methinks every Indian Equity Investor needs a dose of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (RJ) every few years! ~ any sooner it could be an Overdose !  😆 ~ just kidding !

I like the guy ! ~ right since I interacted with him when I invited him around 15 years ago at the turn of this century for interacting in an evening  Q & A session with my packed class of @ 90 participants in my Equity Portfolio Structuring and Stock Analysis Workshop at the BSE Training Institute as I thought he would add practical value & he did

“Boss ! I’m a Sadak Chaap ! ”  he had told us then as also how he had reconstructed his equity portfolio to concentrate only in a few stocks after the 2000 ICE debacle…so in a sense most of his Wealth has grown only in this Millennium in the past 15 years ~ and to his credit in Selections that were not really Blue Chip or Core

Yesterday had gone for an  IMC interactive meet in Mumbai to check out if RJ has sobered & matured in his ‘manner of speak’ over the years ~ I rarely watch Stock Channels ~ don’t even have a TV in office~  so was not really conversant with how & what he delivered in his appearances though knew of his initiating big stakes in companies

I am delighted to blog he has not changed ! ~ shot straight from the hip & mouth again as he always does ” I’m a satodia(translated to mean speculator)  & investor & not an economist” ~ his investment portfolio has spread into the Alternatives of  Bollywood Movie Production too with Kareena & Arjun starrer ‘Ki & Ka’ being his latest co production~ is into horse racing too and owns a few horses ~ passions perhaps where return on investments need not be measured in monies !?

Many perceive him as Dehati or Crude Dude for his rustic loud boorish way of speech~ but don’t let it fool you ! & he does not make any pretenses ~ he’s a CA by training & wears a fairly sharp mind

Money Talks & Crowd Laps it up all !~ many vigorously & ‘knowledgeably’ nodding in agreement

These RJ’s views & responses to questions posed should interest you :

On The Future of Equity Markets ~ Reiterates this is only the Trailer & we are going to witness a Mother of all Bull Runs.India is a thriving young Democracy with US $ 600 b in Savings every year.Equity Markets receive just US $ 50 b from this.This has to improve and it will ~ anyone ,any  doubt!?   

On Returns from Equity  ~ Ironically while his riches have been through multibagger 1000% + equity gains in concentrated high weightage stocks like Titan & Crisil he asserts that one should be happy with 18% CAGR gains and if it goes to 24% one should be really happy read more

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  • Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  • Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  • Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  • Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  • India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  • Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  •  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  • Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  •  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  •    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  • All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  • Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  • Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  • Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end
  • read more

    JBF Ind ~ From Rs 300 to Rs 169 ~ KKR Investment destroyed 44% inside two months

    JBF Ind ~ From Rs 300 to Rs 169 ~ KKR Investment destroyed 44% inside two months

    In July 2015,it was decided that KKR Private Equity led by Sanjay Nayyar,ex Citi Head would infuse @ US $ 150 m  in the JBF Group through a preferential allotment

    On Cue on July 31,2015 the 52 Week High of Rs 318 was recorded

    It’s been downhill since &  is currently at 52 week lows of Rs 169

    The Preferential allotment took place in end December 2015 with KKR Jupiter Investors Pte Ltd as below & when the Market Price was yet respectable at Rs 245  :

    1. Rs 491.23 crs Invested in listed JBF Industries through 16374370 shares at Rs 300(Rs 10 FV + Premium Rs 290) to acquire a 20% stake of post allotment Equity of Rs 81.87 crs
    2. Rs 500.65 crs Invested in JBF Global Pte Ltd,a wholly owned subsidiary of listed JBF Industries,through 12210527 Compulsory Convertible Preference Shares equivalent to US $ 75649902

    KKR nominated Nikhil Srivastava on the Board….would be interesting to be a fly on the wall during Board Meetings now!

    JBF Industries also has six step down subsidiaries through it’s  wholly owned subsidiary,JBF Global Pte Ltd based in Singapore

    Through one of its step down subsidiary, JBF Petrochemicals Ltd, it is implementing a 1.25 m tpa greenfield PTA Project at Mangalore which should be completed in six months although it was expected to be completed in FY 16 as expressed in the FY 15 Annual Report

    So what do you think ?

    Did KKR pay an inexcusably high Rs 300 per share for it’s 20% stake ?

    Do you sense an Opportunity at Rs 169?

    Bumped into the Guy whose firm advised on this Placement at Rs 300 & I asked  him how did they manage to make a sucker of KKR !

    He said it’s a “No Brainer” !

    🙂 Wonder if he meant it’s easy to make a sucker of KKR or that it’s a great opportunity to buy now in the secondary markets !

    KKR ,you guys should have touched base with me before deciding on this Investment !

    Don’t tell me you don’t know who played this Scrip in 2015!

     

    Essar Oil Delisting ~ Love the Guy who has tendered at Rs 5630 !

    😆 Love the Guy who’s tendered  on NSE for just 25 shares at Rs 5630 in the ongoing Essar Oil Delisting Endeavour !

    Look at the NSE Confirmed Demat Shares Tender Position as at 3.30 pm this afternoon

    Who in their right mind would tender at Floor Price of Rs 146.05  or even below Rs 200 when current market Price closed at Rs 225 + levels ! ~ Yet some have !

    Most No of Tenders so far have come in at Rs 240

    Last date is on Monday,December 21,2015

    Wonder what LIC will be doing  with their holding !  

    Essar Oil Limited

    As on 17-Dec-2015 15:30:00 IST

    Price

    No. of Orders

    Demat

    Cumulative Demat

     

    146.05

    14

    505

    505

     

    150.00

    1

    200

    705

     

    152.00

    1

    150

    855

     

    152.05

    1

    200

    1,055

     

    156.00

    1

    0

    1,055

     

    160.00

    1

    175

    1,230

     

    180.00

    1

    100

    1,330

     

    185.00

    1

    0

    1,330

     

    190.00

    1

    0

    1,330

     

    200.00

    7

    700

    2,030

     

    207.00

    7

    0

    2,030

     

    209.90

    2

    7,900

    9,930

     

    210.00

    8

    2,705

    12,635

     

    214.90

    2

    300

    12,935

     

    215.00

    7

    2,02,607

    2,15,542

     

    218.00

    2

    400

    2,15,942

     

    218.20

    1

    300

    2,16,242

     

    219.00

    1

    18,282

    2,34,524

     

    219.80

    2

    1,500

    2,36,024

     

    220.00

    19

    75,117

    3,11,141

     

    220.75

    1

    50

    3,11,191

     

    222.00

    5

    80,834

    3,92,025

     

    223.00

    1

    0

    3,92,025

     

    224.00

    1

    10,000

    4,02,025

     

    224.80

    1

    600

    4,02,625

     

    224.90

    1

    50

    4,02,675

     

    225.00

    17

    42,28,421

    46,31,096

     

    230.00

    19

    86,105

    47,17,201

     

    233.00

    2

    600

    47,17,801

     

    235.00

    8

    26,599

    47,44,400

     

    236.00

    1

    20,000

    47,64,400

     

    238.00

    2

    2,250

    47,66,650

     

    239.00

    4

    10,13,451

    57,80,101

     

    239.40

    1

    200

    57,80,301

     

    239.50

    1

    1,000

    57,81,301

     

    239.75

    1

    100

    57,81,401

     

    239.80

    1

    890

    57,82,291

     

    239.85

    1

    1,000

    57,83,291

     

    239.90

    1

    75,000

    58,58,291

     

    240.00

    197

    88,71,013

    1,47,29,304

     

    242.00

    1

    0

    1,47,29,304

     

    245.00

    1

    250

    1,47,29,554

     

    250.00

    5

    1,840

    1,47,31,394

     

    255.00

    1

    300

    1,47,31,694

     

    275.00

    1

    10,051

    1,47,41,745

     

    280.00

    1

    100

    1,47,41,845

     

    290.00

    1

    300

    1,47,42,145

     

    300.00

    4

    3,340

    1,47,45,485

     

    325.00

    1

    200

    1,47,45,685

     

    330.00

    1

    729

    1,47,46,414

     

    350.00

    1

    1,500

    1,47,47,914

     

    400.00

    1

    100

    1,47,48,014

     

    496.25

    1

    400

    1,47,48,414

     

    500.00

    2

    675

    1,47,49,089

     

    550.00

    1

    600

    1,47,49,689

     

    600.00

    1

    400

    1,47,50,089

     

    700.00

    2

    16,500

    1,47,66,589

     

    5,630.00

    1

    25

    1,47,66,614

     

    If interested check out my earlier blog last week (with updates) for the full Delisting Story

    Essar Oil Sets Rs 146.05 As Floor Price For Delisting ~ Critical Questions Remain
    December 7th, 2015