Looooooooong Full House Saturday Equity Mumbai Workshop Sept 14 2019

It was a looooooooong,should have held it over two days,  Full House Equity Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,September 14,2019 with a whole spectrum of smart participants that made for really invigorating interaction ~they came from Mumbai,Gurgaon & Pune ~ from young upwardly mobile grads & post grads from top ranked Management Institutes in India,UK (London) & USA(Harvard) to ‘ well tuned in’ professionals from the IT ,Consultancy,Broking,Corporate & Banking Sectors to veteran high networth investors . We commenced at 9.30 am & concluded well beyond 7.30 pm ~ 🙂 should have arranged dinner too

Thank you Guys !

Here are a few candid clicks from the Workshop :

The Coverage was expansive & the Interaction from Participants very intelligent & which opened out many threads that we examined with anecdotal support . When analysing a company ,they asked what is “Non Negotiable” &  “How to have Foresight as on Hindsight we are always right”

Really a lot was covered ,some of which is below  :

  • Macros through :
  1. Examining the Equity Table’s four legs of Valuation,Liquidity,Momentum & Sentiment & the Impact of FPI Flows ~ when Valuation,which should be the strongest leg,sometimes takes a back seat as Liquidity or even a lack of it drives the momentum & sentiment
  2.  Not getting Seduced by any Bounce at  Friday closing Sensex 37385 & Nifty 11076 Levels as Caution is strongly indicated by domestic & overseas economy & geo-political headwinds
  3. Negative Interest Rates Era vs the Magic of Compounding in such meltdowns
  4. Sensex & Earnings & Market Cap & low GDP growth Dynamics on Levels & Valuations ~ Past,Present & Forward & why downside risk remains wide open while the upside appears capped for now ~ we referred to 1991/92 abnormally high Sensex PE pre Harshad Mehta Scam exposure & the High PE in 2000 with Ketan Parekh was in action & where the markets were clearing running ahead of fundamentals by huge margins~ we referred to the Sensex PE of just 6 in the late 1980s when VP Singh was the PM 1988~ we covered Mkt Cap/GDP Highs pre Lehman collapse in 2007/8 & the levels now
  5. Fx Reserves  & Exchange Rate Risk &  the Risk of increasing Sovereign Debt as planned by Government ~ How our Rupee has always had a South trajectory,except when it soared from Rs 49 to the US $ to Rs 39 to the US $ creating havoc especially in the Diamond Sector
  6. Why Inversely co-related Gold & US $ are moving up together instead
  7. Turm-Oil & Impact on Fiscal Deficit & Rupee  like last happened in 2007/8( On Saturday at the workshop we were not yet clued in to the Drone Attack on the Oil Refinery in Saudi Arabia that saw Oil Prices dangerously soar 20% in spot) ~ India is hugely dependent on Oil Imports
  8. Interest & Inflation rates
  9. Trump ~ Not sure if he’s a macro or micro factor !
  • Micros through many companies  & sector dynamics covering :
  1. Checklist on how to Smartly & Effectively & thus Quickly Read a voluminous Annual Report
  2. Our Five Steps for Evaluating a Company for Investment
  3. Impact on the Financial Statements in Scenarios like Buy Back,Rights Issues,Fictitious Sales,RBI issuing a divergence on Provisioning for NPAs,non linear jump in Sales Realisations,5 G Spectrum Fees,Permanent Diminution in Investments,Monetising Assets & Depreciation of the Rupee
  4. Quick Brief on Absolute & Relative Valuation & how to prepare a quick Valuation Grid from the Annual Report, Market Price Trends & Shareholding
  5. Why Liquidity more than Profitability is the ‘Circle of Life’  for a Company as viewed through the lens of the Cash Flow Statement dervived from the Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss Ac & that distinguishes operating,financing & investing flows
  6. Corporate Governance Issues on inadequate Disclosure or Non Disclosure, Incorrect & questionable Accounting Treatment & Lack of Transparency &  irresponsible (deliberate?)  Management utterances  that give a leg to Insider Trading & huge Profits through  Derivatives Play
  7. Courage & Conviction Promoter or Institutional recent Buying in Vodafone,Yes Bank,I B Real Estate & Tata Motors & seeing more wealth destruction since in these   
  8. Basis for Disclaimer of Opinion by the Auditor of Reliance Infrastructure & what holds out some hope
  9. Intangibles,Investments & Impairments
  10. Reliance Industries’s Enterprise Value,Revenue Segments Potential,Spin offs of the Jio Telecom Infra into two trusts, Aramco’s 20% stake being negotiated in the Refining,Petroleum Retailing & Petrochemicals Business that should lead to further demerger & reviving & scaling the Gas Exploration Operations
  11. How Defaults & Corporate Governance Issues decimated into or near oblivion Eros,Cox & Kings,ManPasand,Tree House Education,Satyam,Jet Airways,Kingfisher & Talwalkars & is there any hope of operational & share price recovery with Asset values holding out some hope in a few ~ How Clearly the Statutory Auditors & Credit Rating Agencies were negligent or intentionally turned a blind eye in many cases
  12. Huge Potential Outlay of the ‘Nal sey Jal’ Scheme of the Government & the new Jal Shakti Ministry focus that should benefit many companies if the implementation & execution is as noteworthy as the intent
  13. How IndAs 115 continues to affect Bombay Dyeing
  14. How Exchanges continue to accept outright untrue or tepid clarifications from Companies
  15. Reference to Investment Gurus & Living Legends Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch Approaches & Success
  16.  Coverage of a few sectors like Defence, Hydrocarbons,Broking,Telecom,Real Estate,NBFCs,Banks & Automobiles & Disruption that’s in play in many
  17. Consolidation & Capitalisation of PSU Banks & the controversial Acquisition of Laxmi Vilas Bank by I B Housing Finance pending RBI approval
  18. Common Investor Mistakes

The next Equity Workshop is scheduled  pre-Diwali for Saturday ,October 19,2019 & will be announced soon on www.jsalphaa.com & social media

Touched by some warm & constructive feedback from participants :

  • thanks for a lovely interactive session…”
  • “enjoyed your session yday”
  • “it was great to meet again & reskill to be better prepared for opportunities which would arise”
  • “Thanks for being the Enabler,the last few days have been very encouraging”
  • “Cover the Scenarios Exercise more with Investor focus than just on Accounting Impact & take in a few Annual Reports before Lunch”  

😆 & I swear I did not pay for these ones !

  • ” You are very good at what you do,comes naturally to you,with a vastness of the subject to cover you did justice to cover the best you could with your insights and experience of all the treasures of knowledge,you are an encyclopedia of the subject with case studies,which is the best way of teaching, sharing & learning according to me,the various industries that you know of,the processes & the products,the promoters & the pitfalls,the auditors & the audited,you can understand in the readings the stated & the unstated,intention & intended,you truly personify_the integration of intellect with instinct_”   
  • “Whoever missed this one, missed learning a radical way to look at balance sheets. Very practically in a few minutes you can strip away the padding and bullshit that promoters hide their sins behind. If the stock market’s motto or rather rider has always been caveat emptor or buyer beware, Gaurav’s lessons in Analysis would ensure that a “fool and his money are not soon parted” for when emotions like fear and greed coupled with ignorance seize us even the wisest are prone to behave like fools. Especially the wisest!”
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    Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

    Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

    🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

    WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

    As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

    Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

    “Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

    “Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

     & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

    Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

    Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

    gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

    🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

    Cheers !

    Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

    Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

    Seems to get bigger & better every time !

    Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

    Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

    Sunday, August 16th, 2015

    Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

    @ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

    Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

    Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

    That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

    Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  ! read more

    Suzlon or South Indian Bank? What is your Risk Profile?

    🙂 Suzlon or South Indian Bank ? Both are in the Rs 25 to Rs 30 Share Price Range

    What’s your Risk Profile ?

    Suzlon Energy  (FV Rs 2) is a credible  turnaround idea with the entry of Dilip Shanghvi of Sun Pharma but yet has a negative networth and huge debt and losses…displaying a reviving momentum that has nearly trebled Market Cap to currently over Rs 10500 crs in just six months from a low of Rs 11 in late October 2014 to levels of Rs 28/29 today

    South Indian Bank (FV Rs 1) is available @ Book at Rs 25 to Rs 27 range …steady with a Market Cap of just over Rs 3500 crs currently….many see it as a Value Idea

    Would you consider them for your Equity Portfolio ?…and if Yes would you pick  both or  just one of the two ?

    😀 And if you pick just one I’m betting even the Conservative Mindset may go for Suzlon over South Indian Bank !

    Aha ! Equity is the place to be….spoilt for choices !

    😆 For once I’m tempted to preach not to stay true to your risk Profile….known for being contrarion anyway !

    Cheers !

    Wow ! Item Girl Suzlon up 20% @ Rs 23 as Sun Pharma Promoters buys in !

    Wow ! Item Girl Suzlon up 20% @ Rs 23 as Sun Pharma Promoters buys in !

    An Open Offer too has been announced

    Market Guys had sized up Suzlon as the Item Girl of the Market given it’s many controversies and tantalising swings and have been playing it’s volatility and should I daresay being entertained by it in great volumes for long 🙂

    The Item Girl’s coming Good now !

    Clearly Suzlon Energy is now Energised by the entry of Turnaround Artist Dilip Shanghvi of Sun Pharma

    It is unlikely the Open Offer for 26% of the Shares will be successful at the Offer Price of Rs 18

    A Host of Shareholders from the Shanghvi Family will be allotted 100 crore Equity Shares at Rs 18 and thus bringing in Rs 1800 crs  into Suzlon

    Last Month in January 2015 Suzlon entered into an all cash deal to sell it’s German Subsidiary,Senvion for Rs 7200 crs

    These Fund Infusions  and  the Entry of Dilip Shanghvi of Sun Pharma are both hugely positive for Suzlon

    Suzlon will now be able to tap on huge scale the potential  in the Wind Energy Sector

    Watch out for announcement of concrete Scale up Plans

    Watch out for the Share Price too !

    The Market Cap has crossed Rs 7800 crs today ….but if you include at today’s closing Price of @ Rs 23 the fresh 100 cr Equity Shares of Rs 2 to be issued ,the Market Cap is Rs 10000 crs !

    Remember  late 2005 & the IPO frenzy and the frenzied Rs 50000 crs Market Cap at the time and shortly thereafter !

    I had even angrily blogged on this then and again in 2013

    Suzlon Energy @ Rs 14 ~ Gone with the Wind ! Now back with CDR !?

    Thursday, April 25th, 2013 Now can it regain a Market Cap of Rs 50000 crs ! ? Well,Dilip Shanghvi has a fast growing reputation as a great and pugnacious and persistent turnaround and acquisition specialist  Suzlon’s Tanti has found a Saviour  in Shanghvi !

     

    Super ! 23 Participants with 40 Stock Selections for 2015 in the TAP GAP Poser

    Super ! 23 Participants with 40 Stock Selections for 2015 in the TAP GAP Poser

    TAP GAP Poser End 2014 ~Which Indian Company Will Be A Big Share Price Winner In 2015?
    December 15th, 2014

    I shall shortly pick a gauravblog hamper Winner or maybe two where I see maximum gain potential in 2015 from the following

    Participant wise

    Sr No

    Participant

    Recommendation

    Date of Recommendation

    Price in Rs when recommended

    1

    Sumit Khanna

    Subros

    15.12.2014

    67.85

    PTC India Financial Services Ltd

    17.12.2014

    56.4

    2

    Jigam Gandhi

    Wendt India

    15.12.2014

    2000

    3

    Sandeep Gahandule

    Nathbiogene

    16.12.2014

    130.55

    Prima Plastic

    17.12.2014

    56

    JM Financial

    18.12.2014

    47.6

    4

    Bhaskar

    IPCA Labs

    16.12.2014

    723.55

    5

    Nitin

    Ajanta Pharma

    16.12.2014

    2528.65

    Atul Auto

    16.12.2014

    601

    6

    Anand

    Raj Rayon

    17.12.2014

    0.66

    Jubilant Life Sciences

    30.12.2014

    119.95

    7

    Prasad

    Nbcc

    18.12.2014

    792.05

    Capital First

    30.12.2014

    353.4

    TV Today

    30.12.2014

    215.2

    8

    Rohit

     Adani Enterprises

    20.12.2014

    452.05

    9

    Prasad Shetty

    Multibase

    21.12.2014

    227.9

    10

    Kushal Shah

    MCX

    22.12.2014

    838.95

    Jet Airways

    22.12.2014

    389.7

    11

    Rajan

    Motherson Sumi Systems

    22.12.2014

    440.2

    12

    Hemant

    NETWORK 18

    22.12.2014

    66

    Intellect Design

    22.12.2014

    75.6

    Pipavav Defence

    22.12.2014

    39.75

    13

    Raj

    Odyssey Technologies

    22.12.2014

    33.65

    14

    Shiva

    Granules India

    23.12.2014

    777

    Mayur Uniquoters

    23.12.2014

    415.4

    SpiceJet

    23.12.2014

    19.3

    15

    Abhay Tewari

    Suzlon Energy

    23.12.2014

    13.45

    16

    Pushkar Prasad

    Freshtrop Fruits

    24.12.2014

    115.9

    17

    Dhiren

    Tata Sponge

    26.12.2014

    680

    18

    N Sri

    Deccan Gold Mine

    28.12.2014

    42.95

    19

    Sameer

    Spicejet

    30.12.2014

    17.95

    Deccan Gold Mine

    30.12.2014

    44

    Muthoot Capital Services

    30.12.2014

    207.15

    20

    Shahzad V

    Engineers India Ltd

    31.12.2014

    229.75

    AkzoNobel

    31.12.2014

    1384.1

    Aries Agro

    31.12.2014

    117.4

    21

    Kiran

    Vidhi Dyestuffs

    31.12.2014

    17.16

    22

    Vishal Kejriwal

    CCL Products

    1.1.2015

    170.95

    Oriental Carbon Chemical Ltd

    1.1.2015

    361.55

    Hinduja Global Solutions Ltd

    1.1.2015

    631.75

    23

    Rudra Tandan

    Ram Ratna Wires

    2.1.2015

    48

    Foseco

    2.1.2015

    1227.55

    Alphabetical Scripwise

    Sr No. Scrip Recommended for 2015 Price in Rs when recommended Participant
    1 Adani Enterprise 452.05 Rohit
    2 Ajanta Pharma 2528.65 Nitin
    3 Akzo Nobel 1384.1 Shahzad V
    4 Aries Agro 117.4 Shahzad V
    5 Atul Auto 601 Nitin
    6 CCL Products 170.95 Vishal Kejriwal
    7 Capital First 353.4 Prasad
    8 Deccan Gold 42.95 N Sri
    9 Deccan Gold 44 Sameer
    10 Engineers Ind 229.75 Shahzad V
    11 Foseco India 1227.55 Rudra Tandan
    12 Freshtrop Fruit 115.9 Pushkar Prasad
    13 Granules India 777 Shiva
    14 Hinduja Global 631.75 Vishal Kejriwal
    15 Intellect Design Arena 75.6 Hemant
    16 Ipca Labs 723.55 Bhaskar
    17 JM Financial 47.6 Sandeep Gahandule
    18 Jet Airways 389.7 Kushal Shah
    19 Jubilant Life 119.95 Anand
    20 MCX India 838.95 Kushal Shah
    21 Mayur Uniquoter 415.4 Shiva
    22 Motherson Sumi 440.2 Rajan
    23 Multibase India 227.9 Prasad Shetty
    24 Muthoot Cap 207.15 Sameer
    25 NBCC 792.05 Prasad
    26 Nath Bio-Genes 130.55 Sandeep Gahandule
    27 Network 18 66 Hemant
    28 Odyssey Technologies 33.65 Raj
    29 Oriental Carbon 361.55 Vishal Kejriwal
    30 PTC India Financial Services 56.4 Sumit Khanna
    31 Pipavav Defence 39.75 Hemant
    32 Prima Plastics 56 Sandeep Gahandule
    33 Raj Rayon Ind 0.66 Anand
    34 Ram Ratna Wires 48 Rudra Tandan
    35 SpiceJet 17.95 Sameer
    36 SpiceJet 19.3 Shiva
    37 Subros 67.85 Sumit Khanna
    38 Suzlon Energy 13.45 Abhay Tewari
    39 TV TodayNetwork 215.2 Prasad
    40 Tata Sponge 680 Dhiren
    41 Vidhi Dyestuffs 17.16 Kiran
    42 Wendt 2000 Jigam Gandhi

    Note :

    1. Sandeep Gahandule who just won the hamper for Alphageo’s spectacular 720% run in 2014 has contributed three selections for 2015 this time too
    2. Anand,who ran neck to neck with Sandeep till November 2014,when his low priced Rs 7 YBrant  was up against Alphageo has yet again given one really low priced selection Raj Rayon of just 66 paise !
    3. Deccan Gold & Spicejet occur twice as they constitute selections from two different participants
    4. Prices at which Recommended have either been provided by the Participant when making the Reco and reflect the current market price at the time or where they have not stated the price,the last price when they made the reco has been sourced from the BSE & NSE
    5. Most have not given targets for 2015 Selections but the four selections that have been given targets and all are  over 100% + except one,are as follows : Freshtop Fruits Rs 250,PTC India Financial Services Rs 90,Subros Rs 150 and Tata Sponge Rs 1500+
    6. Adani Group finds representation but none from the Ambani Groups ~ perhaps realisation that Reliance Ind has been a losing 5 year Investment thus far and ADAG Companies have struggled
    7. Tata Sponge is the lone entry from the Tata Group.
    8. Media and Aviation have two each in Network 18 and TV Today and Jet Airways & Spicejet respectively
    9. Pharma & Auto Ancilliaries & NBFCs &  IT  & Speciality & Commodity Chemical Sectors are well represented
    10. Can see a few potential turnaround selections as well as a few that have already run up huge in 2014
    11. Tea & Coffee Beverages & Renewable Energy & Defence are represented but none from direct Power,Telecom or Real Estate or Retail
    12. No Bank & no Oil & Gas Major  & No visible Large Cap ! but Three Selections are also traded in the Derivatives Segment,namely,Adani Enterprise,Engineers India & Motherson Sumi

    Going to be an interesting few days filtering all the above