Looooooooong Full House Saturday Equity Mumbai Workshop Sept 14 2019

It was a looooooooong,should have held it over two days,  Full House Equity Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,September 14,2019 with a whole spectrum of smart participants that made for really invigorating interaction ~they came from Mumbai,Gurgaon & Pune ~ from young upwardly mobile grads & post grads from top ranked Management Institutes in India,UK (London) & USA(Harvard) to ‘ well tuned in’ professionals from the IT ,Consultancy,Broking,Corporate & Banking Sectors to veteran high networth investors . We commenced at 9.30 am & concluded well beyond 7.30 pm ~ 🙂 should have arranged dinner too

Thank you Guys !

Here are a few candid clicks from the Workshop :

The Coverage was expansive & the Interaction from Participants very intelligent & which opened out many threads that we examined with anecdotal support . When analysing a company ,they asked what is “Non Negotiable” &  “How to have Foresight as on Hindsight we are always right”

Really a lot was covered ,some of which is below  :

  • Macros through :
  1. Examining the Equity Table’s four legs of Valuation,Liquidity,Momentum & Sentiment & the Impact of FPI Flows ~ when Valuation,which should be the strongest leg,sometimes takes a back seat as Liquidity or even a lack of it drives the momentum & sentiment
  2.  Not getting Seduced by any Bounce at  Friday closing Sensex 37385 & Nifty 11076 Levels as Caution is strongly indicated by domestic & overseas economy & geo-political headwinds
  3. Negative Interest Rates Era vs the Magic of Compounding in such meltdowns
  4. Sensex & Earnings & Market Cap & low GDP growth Dynamics on Levels & Valuations ~ Past,Present & Forward & why downside risk remains wide open while the upside appears capped for now ~ we referred to 1991/92 abnormally high Sensex PE pre Harshad Mehta Scam exposure & the High PE in 2000 with Ketan Parekh was in action & where the markets were clearing running ahead of fundamentals by huge margins~ we referred to the Sensex PE of just 6 in the late 1980s when VP Singh was the PM 1988~ we covered Mkt Cap/GDP Highs pre Lehman collapse in 2007/8 & the levels now
  5. Fx Reserves  & Exchange Rate Risk &  the Risk of increasing Sovereign Debt as planned by Government ~ How our Rupee has always had a South trajectory,except when it soared from Rs 49 to the US $ to Rs 39 to the US $ creating havoc especially in the Diamond Sector
  6. Why Inversely co-related Gold & US $ are moving up together instead
  7. Turm-Oil & Impact on Fiscal Deficit & Rupee  like last happened in 2007/8( On Saturday at the workshop we were not yet clued in to the Drone Attack on the Oil Refinery in Saudi Arabia that saw Oil Prices dangerously soar 20% in spot) ~ India is hugely dependent on Oil Imports
  8. Interest & Inflation rates
  9. Trump ~ Not sure if he’s a macro or micro factor !
  • Micros through many companies  & sector dynamics covering :
  1. Checklist on how to Smartly & Effectively & thus Quickly Read a voluminous Annual Report
  2. Our Five Steps for Evaluating a Company for Investment
  3. Impact on the Financial Statements in Scenarios like Buy Back,Rights Issues,Fictitious Sales,RBI issuing a divergence on Provisioning for NPAs,non linear jump in Sales Realisations,5 G Spectrum Fees,Permanent Diminution in Investments,Monetising Assets & Depreciation of the Rupee
  4. Quick Brief on Absolute & Relative Valuation & how to prepare a quick Valuation Grid from the Annual Report, Market Price Trends & Shareholding
  5. Why Liquidity more than Profitability is the ‘Circle of Life’  for a Company as viewed through the lens of the Cash Flow Statement dervived from the Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss Ac & that distinguishes operating,financing & investing flows
  6. Corporate Governance Issues on inadequate Disclosure or Non Disclosure, Incorrect & questionable Accounting Treatment & Lack of Transparency &  irresponsible (deliberate?)  Management utterances  that give a leg to Insider Trading & huge Profits through  Derivatives Play
  7. Courage & Conviction Promoter or Institutional recent Buying in Vodafone,Yes Bank,I B Real Estate & Tata Motors & seeing more wealth destruction since in these   
  8. Basis for Disclaimer of Opinion by the Auditor of Reliance Infrastructure & what holds out some hope
  9. Intangibles,Investments & Impairments
  10. Reliance Industries’s Enterprise Value,Revenue Segments Potential,Spin offs of the Jio Telecom Infra into two trusts, Aramco’s 20% stake being negotiated in the Refining,Petroleum Retailing & Petrochemicals Business that should lead to further demerger & reviving & scaling the Gas Exploration Operations
  11. How Defaults & Corporate Governance Issues decimated into or near oblivion Eros,Cox & Kings,ManPasand,Tree House Education,Satyam,Jet Airways,Kingfisher & Talwalkars & is there any hope of operational & share price recovery with Asset values holding out some hope in a few ~ How Clearly the Statutory Auditors & Credit Rating Agencies were negligent or intentionally turned a blind eye in many cases
  12. Huge Potential Outlay of the ‘Nal sey Jal’ Scheme of the Government & the new Jal Shakti Ministry focus that should benefit many companies if the implementation & execution is as noteworthy as the intent
  13. How IndAs 115 continues to affect Bombay Dyeing
  14. How Exchanges continue to accept outright untrue or tepid clarifications from Companies
  15. Reference to Investment Gurus & Living Legends Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch Approaches & Success
  16.  Coverage of a few sectors like Defence, Hydrocarbons,Broking,Telecom,Real Estate,NBFCs,Banks & Automobiles & Disruption that’s in play in many
  17. Consolidation & Capitalisation of PSU Banks & the controversial Acquisition of Laxmi Vilas Bank by I B Housing Finance pending RBI approval
  18. Common Investor Mistakes

The next Equity Workshop is scheduled  pre-Diwali for Saturday ,October 19,2019 & will be announced soon on www.jsalphaa.com & social media

Touched by some warm & constructive feedback from participants :

  • thanks for a lovely interactive session…”
  • “enjoyed your session yday”
  • “it was great to meet again & reskill to be better prepared for opportunities which would arise”
  • “Thanks for being the Enabler,the last few days have been very encouraging”
  • “Cover the Scenarios Exercise more with Investor focus than just on Accounting Impact & take in a few Annual Reports before Lunch”  

😆 & I swear I did not pay for these ones !

  • ” You are very good at what you do,comes naturally to you,with a vastness of the subject to cover you did justice to cover the best you could with your insights and experience of all the treasures of knowledge,you are an encyclopedia of the subject with case studies,which is the best way of teaching, sharing & learning according to me,the various industries that you know of,the processes & the products,the promoters & the pitfalls,the auditors & the audited,you can understand in the readings the stated & the unstated,intention & intended,you truly personify_the integration of intellect with instinct_”   
  • “Whoever missed this one, missed learning a radical way to look at balance sheets. Very practically in a few minutes you can strip away the padding and bullshit that promoters hide their sins behind. If the stock market’s motto or rather rider has always been caveat emptor or buyer beware, Gaurav’s lessons in Analysis would ensure that a “fool and his money are not soon parted” for when emotions like fear and greed coupled with ignorance seize us even the wisest are prone to behave like fools. Especially the wisest!”
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    Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

    Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

    🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

    WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

    As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

    Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

    “Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

    “Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

     & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

    Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

    Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

    gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

    🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

    Cheers !

    Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

    FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

    Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

    Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

    Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

    Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

    Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

    In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

    Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  • Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  • Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  • Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  • Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  • India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  • Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  •  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  • Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  •  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  •    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  • All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  • Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  • Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  • Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end
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    Union Budget 2014 ~ Will Sensex continue to Humour as Jaitley does not!

    Have a look at our first impression posted  after our FM ‘s Union Budget Address and during market hours

    Union Budget 2014 ~ Will Sensex continue to Humour as Jaitley does not!

    Think he missed a great opportunity to provide us with the ‘Naya Soch’ of the new NDA Government

    His Speech stated quite a few challenges and objectives like tackling Black Monies,raising Tax to GDP ratio,lowering Inflation and Fiscal Deficit % but stopped short of spelling out the specifics of solving these

    Having just 45 days after NDA was elected he has opted for the easier option of simply following the UPA budget process and numbers too that the UPA FM Mr Chidambaram laid out in his Interim Budget in February 2014….whether it be Disinvestment or Tax Receipts or Fiscal Deficit Control Targets…made right noises but was tokenism in a few areas like social expenditure…thankfully nothing really adverse or anti poor though direct tax incentives are not really cause for any celebration

    Sensex had quite a roller coaster ride today as to be expected….opening stable & pre budget speech at 25514 in the morning then sliding before noon over 300 points to 25117 from yesterday closing of 25445 during the budget speech before strongly racing away by over 700 points to 25920 …over 400 points previous day closing post budget speech only to reverse all the gains and close at 25373,down 72 points  from previous day closing

    Will the Sensex continue to Humor us in the near term despite not an iota of Humor in the FM’s Speech !? …sense is that any correction will be a hiccup on the onward march towards 30000 on the back of increased FII Net Infows & Big Corporate Infra spending  

    I see some clear big winners in the Infrastructure Space across the Board from Shipping to Power to SEZs to Real Estate to Highway Road Construction Companies and Pipeline Companies

     

     

    How can BSE explain this apparent Insider Trading today in Uttam Value Steel !?

    BSE uploaded on their website this favourable Corporate Announcement from Uttam Value Steel at 2.33 pm in the afternoon

    ________________________________________________________________________________

    Corporate Announcement

    Scripcode : 500254 Company : Uttam Value

    Outcome of Board Meeting 21 Feb 2014 14:33

    Uttam Value Steels Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on February 21, 2014, have taken the following decisions:

    1. The Board, subject to the approval of the members of the Company and the relevant Stock Exchange / SEBI, has agreed to issue, offer and allot upto 12,90,32,258 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each fully paid up of the Company (the “Allottee Shares”) by way of preferential allotment at a price of Rs. 15.50/- each for an aggregate consideration of upto Rs. 200,00,00,000 (Rupees Two Hundred Crores only) by way of preferential allotment to Strategic Investor namely UD Industrial Holding Pte Limited, Singapore in accordance with SEBI (ICDR) Regulations, 2009 and relevant provisions of Company Law. The Board also considered and approved the draft Notice of Extra Ordinary General Meeting and its procedure in this regard.

    2. Convening of Extra Ordinary General Meeting to approve the aforesaid matters.

    3. The Scheme of arrangement between Uttam Value Steels Limited (UVSL) and Lloyds Steels Industries Limited (LSIL) which was approved by Audit Committee and Board in their Meeting held on February 11, 2014, wherein the Engineering Division of the Company proposed to be demerged in LSIL has been Postponed / Deferred for the time being.

    ________________________________________________________________________________

    However UttamValue Steel hit the Upper Circuit of 20% at Rs 6.72 at 10.46 am in the morning with most of the Volume of over Three Lakh Shares having taken place inside half an hour around this time against the two week average of just 12000 shares which even includes today’s volume ! ~ Those who sold clearly must have been unaware of the Notice and it’s posting on the BSE website in the afternoon after they sold in the morning  ! 

    How can BSE explain what looks like apparent Insider Trading !?….Maybe it needs SEBI’s help to do so ! 

    At 10.46 am in the morning Uttam Value Steel hits 20% Rs 6.72 Upper circuit on Friday,February 21,2014 even though BSE uploaded the favourable Corporate Announcement at 2.33 pm in the afternoon ! ~ Insider Trading ?

    Either it is clearly Insider Trading by those who knew before hand or got the notice in their hands before it was put up or BSE put it up in the morning itself on their Notice Board in the Stock Exchange Building before uploading it on their website in the afternoon at 2.33 pm  read more

    November 2013 Posts in three Free Access Modules ~ Scrip Standpoint ~One Company under Scrip Tease ~19 Companies under Scrip Watch

    Check these November 2013 Posts on our Website in the various Free Access Modules

    Scrip Standpoint Module ~ Four Week Ending Posts and Four Specific Posts 

    Scrip Tease Module ~ One Company

    Scrip Watch Module ~19 Companies ~ These are not committed SS Selects that Clients have access to in Other Modules 

  • Lupin @ Rs 853 ~ ‘Lupin’ Good ! ~ Pin Up Pharma Poster Scrip Maybe ! ~ 28-Nov-2013
  • Technocraft Industries @ Rs 103 ~ The Best is Yet to Come says the Company ~ but will it!? ~ 27-Nov-2013
  • Redington India @ Rs 68.55 ~ Riding on Apple!? ~ 25-Nov-2013
  • Max India Ltd @ Rs 200 ~ Revives halfway between 52 Week High/Low ~ 22-Nov-2013
  • Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd @ Rs 119 – Price Surges on Delisting News ~ 22-Nov-2013
  • Sintex @ Rs 30 ~ Poised for a Turnaround? ~ 21-Nov-2013
  • Sobha Developers @ Rs 312 ~ Better Positioned than Peers ~ 21-Nov-2013
  • IL&FS Transportation @ Rs 117 ~ Sluggish Relative Valuations in a Sluggish Scenario ~ 20-Nov-2013
  • JP Associates @ Rs 49.6 ~ Building market expectations! ~ 19-Nov-2013
  • OCL@ Rs 139.55~Dalmias Cementing Stake Steadily ~ 18-Nov-2013
  • Coal India @ Rs 274 ~ Q2 Result Update ~ 16-Nov-2013
  • Heritage Foods @ Rs 181 ~ Profitable Dairy Segment but Loss making Retail Segment ~ 15-Nov-2013
  • Aurobindo Pharma @ Rs 282 ~ Yet Valued at a Discount To Peer Group despite Good Growth Potential ~ 14-Nov-2013
  • Suven Life Sciences @ Rs 69.9 ~Sixfold Rise in Q2FY14 PAT ~ What else lies ahead! ~ 13-Nov-2013
  • Ashok Leyland @ Rs 15.25 ~ Sliding Through Tough Times ~ 12-Nov-2013
  • Mangalore Chemicals @ Rs 53.3 ~ Juggling with Control Issues ~ 11-Nov-2013
  • Ashoka Buildcon @ Rs 53 ~ On Reformatory Roads ~ 06-Nov-2013
  • Oriental Carbon and Chemicals @ Rs 117 ~ Does it Deserve to be traded in the PCA as an Iliquid Scrip ? ~ 05-Nov-2013
  • Tinplate Co of India @ Rs 46 ~ Will it ever break away from a Narrow Quoted Range ? ~ 05-Nov-2013
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