Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

“Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

“Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

 & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

Cheers !

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  • Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  • Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  • Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  • Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  • India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  • Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  •  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  • Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  •  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  •    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  • All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  • Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  • Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  • Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end
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    Union Budget 2014 ~ Will Sensex continue to Humour as Jaitley does not!

    Have a look at our first impression posted  after our FM ‘s Union Budget Address and during market hours

    Union Budget 2014 ~ Will Sensex continue to Humour as Jaitley does not!

    Think he missed a great opportunity to provide us with the ‘Naya Soch’ of the new NDA Government

    His Speech stated quite a few challenges and objectives like tackling Black Monies,raising Tax to GDP ratio,lowering Inflation and Fiscal Deficit % but stopped short of spelling out the specifics of solving these

    Having just 45 days after NDA was elected he has opted for the easier option of simply following the UPA budget process and numbers too that the UPA FM Mr Chidambaram laid out in his Interim Budget in February 2014….whether it be Disinvestment or Tax Receipts or Fiscal Deficit Control Targets…made right noises but was tokenism in a few areas like social expenditure…thankfully nothing really adverse or anti poor though direct tax incentives are not really cause for any celebration

    Sensex had quite a roller coaster ride today as to be expected….opening stable & pre budget speech at 25514 in the morning then sliding before noon over 300 points to 25117 from yesterday closing of 25445 during the budget speech before strongly racing away by over 700 points to 25920 …over 400 points previous day closing post budget speech only to reverse all the gains and close at 25373,down 72 points  from previous day closing

    Will the Sensex continue to Humor us in the near term despite not an iota of Humor in the FM’s Speech !? …sense is that any correction will be a hiccup on the onward march towards 30000 on the back of increased FII Net Infows & Big Corporate Infra spending  

    I see some clear big winners in the Infrastructure Space across the Board from Shipping to Power to SEZs to Real Estate to Highway Road Construction Companies and Pipeline Companies

     

     

    How can BSE explain this apparent Insider Trading today in Uttam Value Steel !?

    BSE uploaded on their website this favourable Corporate Announcement from Uttam Value Steel at 2.33 pm in the afternoon

    ________________________________________________________________________________

    Corporate Announcement

    Scripcode : 500254 Company : Uttam Value

    Outcome of Board Meeting 21 Feb 2014 14:33

    Uttam Value Steels Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on February 21, 2014, have taken the following decisions:

    1. The Board, subject to the approval of the members of the Company and the relevant Stock Exchange / SEBI, has agreed to issue, offer and allot upto 12,90,32,258 equity shares of Rs. 10/- each fully paid up of the Company (the “Allottee Shares”) by way of preferential allotment at a price of Rs. 15.50/- each for an aggregate consideration of upto Rs. 200,00,00,000 (Rupees Two Hundred Crores only) by way of preferential allotment to Strategic Investor namely UD Industrial Holding Pte Limited, Singapore in accordance with SEBI (ICDR) Regulations, 2009 and relevant provisions of Company Law. The Board also considered and approved the draft Notice of Extra Ordinary General Meeting and its procedure in this regard.

    2. Convening of Extra Ordinary General Meeting to approve the aforesaid matters.

    3. The Scheme of arrangement between Uttam Value Steels Limited (UVSL) and Lloyds Steels Industries Limited (LSIL) which was approved by Audit Committee and Board in their Meeting held on February 11, 2014, wherein the Engineering Division of the Company proposed to be demerged in LSIL has been Postponed / Deferred for the time being.

    ________________________________________________________________________________

    However UttamValue Steel hit the Upper Circuit of 20% at Rs 6.72 at 10.46 am in the morning with most of the Volume of over Three Lakh Shares having taken place inside half an hour around this time against the two week average of just 12000 shares which even includes today’s volume ! ~ Those who sold clearly must have been unaware of the Notice and it’s posting on the BSE website in the afternoon after they sold in the morning  ! 

    How can BSE explain what looks like apparent Insider Trading !?….Maybe it needs SEBI’s help to do so ! 

    At 10.46 am in the morning Uttam Value Steel hits 20% Rs 6.72 Upper circuit on Friday,February 21,2014 even though BSE uploaded the favourable Corporate Announcement at 2.33 pm in the afternoon ! ~ Insider Trading ?

    Either it is clearly Insider Trading by those who knew before hand or got the notice in their hands before it was put up or BSE put it up in the morning itself on their Notice Board in the Stock Exchange Building before uploading it on their website in the afternoon at 2.33 pm  read more

    November 2013 Posts in three Free Access Modules ~ Scrip Standpoint ~One Company under Scrip Tease ~19 Companies under Scrip Watch

    Check these November 2013 Posts on our Website in the various Free Access Modules

    Scrip Standpoint Module ~ Four Week Ending Posts and Four Specific Posts 

    Scrip Tease Module ~ One Company

    Scrip Watch Module ~19 Companies ~ These are not committed SS Selects that Clients have access to in Other Modules 

  • Lupin @ Rs 853 ~ ‘Lupin’ Good ! ~ Pin Up Pharma Poster Scrip Maybe ! ~ 28-Nov-2013
  • Technocraft Industries @ Rs 103 ~ The Best is Yet to Come says the Company ~ but will it!? ~ 27-Nov-2013
  • Redington India @ Rs 68.55 ~ Riding on Apple!? ~ 25-Nov-2013
  • Max India Ltd @ Rs 200 ~ Revives halfway between 52 Week High/Low ~ 22-Nov-2013
  • Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd @ Rs 119 – Price Surges on Delisting News ~ 22-Nov-2013
  • Sintex @ Rs 30 ~ Poised for a Turnaround? ~ 21-Nov-2013
  • Sobha Developers @ Rs 312 ~ Better Positioned than Peers ~ 21-Nov-2013
  • IL&FS Transportation @ Rs 117 ~ Sluggish Relative Valuations in a Sluggish Scenario ~ 20-Nov-2013
  • JP Associates @ Rs 49.6 ~ Building market expectations! ~ 19-Nov-2013
  • OCL@ Rs 139.55~Dalmias Cementing Stake Steadily ~ 18-Nov-2013
  • Coal India @ Rs 274 ~ Q2 Result Update ~ 16-Nov-2013
  • Heritage Foods @ Rs 181 ~ Profitable Dairy Segment but Loss making Retail Segment ~ 15-Nov-2013
  • Aurobindo Pharma @ Rs 282 ~ Yet Valued at a Discount To Peer Group despite Good Growth Potential ~ 14-Nov-2013
  • Suven Life Sciences @ Rs 69.9 ~Sixfold Rise in Q2FY14 PAT ~ What else lies ahead! ~ 13-Nov-2013
  • Ashok Leyland @ Rs 15.25 ~ Sliding Through Tough Times ~ 12-Nov-2013
  • Mangalore Chemicals @ Rs 53.3 ~ Juggling with Control Issues ~ 11-Nov-2013
  • Ashoka Buildcon @ Rs 53 ~ On Reformatory Roads ~ 06-Nov-2013
  • Oriental Carbon and Chemicals @ Rs 117 ~ Does it Deserve to be traded in the PCA as an Iliquid Scrip ? ~ 05-Nov-2013
  • Tinplate Co of India @ Rs 46 ~ Will it ever break away from a Narrow Quoted Range ? ~ 05-Nov-2013
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    Performance of the BSE Sector Indices in 2011/12 and to date is quite Interesting

    Performance of the BSE Sector Indices in 2011/12  and to date is quite Interesting ….What provoked this post is Sameer’s counter argument in my earlier post…he is bullish in the short term,citing the favourable upmoves in the Pharma,Cement and Auto Sectors…I’m looking at the Bigger Picture and I’m not so excited really as Macros are clearly playing up and this Government is unlikely to push big ticket reforms…we need to await 2014 General Elections,which I fear may yet again through up a fractured verdict…but I hope with a more reform friendly and decisive coalition !

    Have a Look at the Performance of the BSE Sector Indices in 2011/12 and to date…Quite Interesting…The Reds & Greens signal fall or rise/holding up from over a year ago  

    The Alltime High & Low Columns are quite revealing

    • FMCG,Healthcare and Auto Indices  have registered All time Highs this Month…with consistent Wealth Creation in the 21st century in FMCG and Healthcare while a huge surge in the last four years in the Auto Sector
    • Quick and huge  wealth destruction in the IT sector in 2000/2001,the Metals and Power Sector inside Ten months in 2008 between January and October and in the Realty Sector between Jan 2008 and March 2009  

    PERFORMANCE OF BSE SECTOR INDICES AS ON APRIL 26,2012

    Sector

    Valuation

    Current Close

    April 26,2012

    A Month Ago

    A Year Ago

    52 Week

    All Time

    %

    Mkt Cap

    PE

    PBV

    Index

    %

    Index

    %

    High

    Low

    High

    Low

    IT

    9

    19.4

    6

    5509

    6011

    (8.4)

    6244

    (11.8)

    6361

    4639

    8678

    Feb 2000

    835

    Sept 2001

    Teck

    12.6

    23.4

    3.5

    3239

    3516

    (7.9)

    3764

    (13.9)

    3799

    2982

    4188

    Oct 2007

    547

    Sept 2001

    FMCG

    7

    35

    14

    4806

    4386

    9.6

    3739

    28.5

    4834

    3562

    4834

    April 2012

    706

    April 2003

    Consumer Durables

    0.7

    20

    2.7

    6509

    6377

    2.1

    6491

    7097

    5063

    7370

    Nov 2010

    414

    Sept 2001

    Metals

    9.4

    14

    2.4

    10981

    10978

    16723

    (34.3)

    16723

    9191

    20495

    Jan 2008

    3807

    Oct 2008

    Oil & Gas

    11.7

    16.9

    1.8

    7896

    7910

    10093

    (21.8)

    10102

    7495

    14269

    Jan 2008

    2529

    Aug 2004

    Capital Goods

    3.8

    15.9

    3.1

    9424

    9933

    (5.1)

    13710

    (31.3)

    14108

    7807

    21021

    Nov 2007

    481

    Sept 2001

    HealthCare

    4.4

    57

    4.4

    6747

    6391

    5.6

    6191

    9

    6879

    5757

    6879

    April 2012

    985

    April 2001

    Bankex

    9.8

    13.3

    2.1

    11666

    11571

    13520

    (13.7)

    13501

    8947

    15108

    Nov 2010

    1614

    June 2003

    PSU

    25.7

    13.8

    2

    7160

    7235

    9169

    (21.9)

    9254

    6204

    11205

    Jan 2008

    734

    Sept 2001

    Auto

    4.9

    22

    4.8

    10745

    9861

    0.1

    9678

    11

    10829

    7814

    10829

    April 2012

    2128

    Dec 2008

    Realty

    1.2

    20.9

    1.4

    1677

    1726

    (2.8)

    2346

    (28.5)

    2311

    1348

    13848

    Jan 2008

    1298

    March 2009

    Power

    7.2

    15.3

    2

    1991

    2082

    (4.4)

    2724

    (26.9)

    2714

    1725

    4929

    Jan 2008

    1275

    Oct 2008

  • IT  shows a Drop,but TCS has outperformed Infosys ,which has slumped and the latter holds 48% weightage in the Index ! against just 29% by TCS !…this needs to be rectified by BSE rightaway…more so as the Market Cap of TCS is Rs 233301 crs against just Rs 135415 crs of Infosys !….The Index tracks the share price of  10 Companies with 88% weightage of just three …Infosys,TCS and Wipro …Other interesting constituents are Oracle Finance and Financial Technologies 
  •   Techk comprises of 30 IT,Telecom,Media and Communication Companies and has mirrored IT fall
  • FMCG has been the years Darling with ITC (55% weightage) and HUL (18% weightage) outperforming to allow the Index to hit Alltime Highs…11 Companies constitute this Index…Interesting ones are the two Kingfisher Group Companies,United Spirits and United Breweries…. and Tata Global (spotted this at Rs 80 late in 2011) and the huge 2010/2011 winner Jubilant Foods (Dominoes Pizza)
  •  Consumer Durables has heavyweight Titan with 51% weightage in the Index…It’s been a flat year
  • Metals has seen a bad year…In fact this Index has slumped the highest @ 35% over last year…75% Index weightage is in Five scrips led by Tata Steel with 22% followed by Coal India,Jindal Steel,Sterlite and Hindalco
  • Oil & Gas too has seen a bad year…Reliance with a 54% weightage and ONGC with a 22% weightage aggregate a skewed weightage of 76% in the Index
  • Capital Good Giants,India Proxy Larsen and Toubro and BHEL have a weightage of  54% and 16% respectively in the Index that monitors the share price of  17 companies,that also include Siemens,Suzlon,Havells,Thermax,ABB and Punj Lloyd…it’s been a shocking year for both,Larsen and BHEL on the bourses and the steep fall has unnerved even the aggressive Investors
  • Healthcare has held up well in 2011/12…19 Healthcare and Pharma Companies comprise the Index with Sun Pharma (18%),Dr Reddys (17%) and Cipla (12%) leading the weightages
  • 14 Banks comprise the Bankex with the top three weightages given to HDFC Bank (26%),ICICI Bank (25%) and State Bank of India (16%)…it’s been a very challenging year for the Banks given the slowdown in the Economy and high interest rates affecting credit offtake…the rising level of NPAs remains a threat
  •  PSU ~ The Index has 60 PSU Companies in it ! with Coal India and ONGC leading at 14% each in weightages followed by State Bank of India with 9% and NTPC with 8%…Interestingly these 60 Comnpanies have an aggregate  Market Cap of Rs 1561821 crs currently….and this smartly and significantly  constitute nearly 26%,that’s over one fourth of the Total Current Market Cap of BSE of Rs 6108734 crs 
  • The Auto Index covers 10 Companies across the sector spectrum of leading four HMV and LMV wheelers & Two Wheelers,Battery (Exide) & Engine (Cummins) Manufacturers and Tyres (Apollo)…Aggregate 86% weightage is given to top Five Vehicle Players led by Tata Motors with a 31% weightage .Interestingly and encouragingly too,this Index has held up well,largely due to outperformance by Tata Motors…However Index aggregate Market Cap is below 5% of total market cap 
  • Realty Index tracks the share price of 12 realty companies…DLF lead weightages with 33% followed by Unitech (17%),Oberoi (10%) and HDIL (10%)…Shobha,Godrej Properties,Phoenix,D B Realty are some others in this Index…it’s continued to be a sliding year for this sector that’s been saddled with huge crippling debt,huge inventories and delayed projects….but how much more lower can it go !…search for contrarion winners in this sector over the long term…had spotted Orbit at Rs 20 + late last year and early this year…Price has doubled to @ Rs 48 currently…and even Indiabulls Real Estate at Rs 45 + levels after demerger of Indiabulls Power….it surged to Rs 80 levels before reacting now to Rs 62 …But Both do not form part of this Index 
  • Power Sector is battling  Source Feed Supplies of Coal and Gas that’s crippling Operations and resulting in lower output and capacity underutilisation….Implementation of both,Public and Private Mega Projects too has been delayed for a host of reasons …This Index tracks 19 companies in the Sector that cover Generators,Transmitters and Distributors as also others that supply Equipment like BHEL which has the second largest weightage of 15% …NTPC with a 20%  leads the weightages….Incidentally Private Power Players like Reliance Power  and Adani Power have a weightage of 4% and 3%  respectively….Given the Challenges faced,the Year has been quite unkind to this Sector…the Index has slumped @ 27% in the past year…anyone for a Contrarion Bull Play here !? 
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