Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

“Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

“Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

 & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

Cheers !

Sugar Scrips on Fire ~ Humming Sugar Sugar… & you got me wanting you !

Sugar Scrips on Fire  even as Sensex tanks @ 382 points & 1.48 % to close lower at 25483

Humming the Archies classic “Oh Honey! Sugar Sugar You’re my Candy Girl & you got me wanting you !”

Look at the Sweet Sweet Returns if you’d made the call on this commodity just a month or two ago when Global Prices have been rising dramatically and the Indian Government has allowed Sugar Exports to realise these prices

Just look at these 14 Sugar Scrips on Fire on BSE !

Dwarikesh & Simbhaoli closed at their 52 Week Highs today while several others recorded their 52 Wk Highs before closing marginally lower !

Interestingly EID Parry has not gained till date in 2015 having opened at Rs 202 levels and closing today at similar levels

Sugar Sector has been a Multibagger one this year !…in fact in just one or two months of investments one would have raked in three digit % returns in Sugar Scrips !

 

SUGAR SCRIPS ON FIRE !

Scrip Name

 

Mkt Cap

(Rs Crs)

FV

(Rs)

52 Wk

High

52 Wk

 Low

Jan1 2015

Nov18

2015

 

%

Day

  

%

2015

 

%

from

52 wk low

Sensex

 

 

30025

24834

27486

25483

-1.47

-7.3

2.6

Nifty

 

 

9119

7540

8273

7732

-1.35

-6.5

2.6

 

 

Rs 

 Rs

Rs 

Rs 

 

 

 

Bajaj Hind Sugar

1768

1

25.2

11.01

19

21.65

-2.73

13.9

96.6

Bannari Aman

1401

10

1420

575

1163

1225

-1.1

5.3

113.0

Balrampur Chini

2024

1

85.4

33.45

60

82.65

14.63

37.8

147.1

Dalmia Bharat

565

2

76.70

16.10

22.7

69.85

-1

208

334

Dhampur Sugar Mills

423

10

74

27.4

43.4

72.2

3.69

66.4

163.5

Dwarikesh Sugar

147

10

89.9

19.1

28.35

89.9

4.96

217.1

370.7

EID  Parry

1950

1

244.5

123

202.6

201.65

-6.17

-0.5

63.9

Oudh Sugar

108

10

44.2

14.2

19.9

41.75

4.76

109.8

194.0

Rajshree Sugar

89

10

39.5

14.4

22.9

37.55

3.18

64.0

160.8

Sakhti Sugar

37

10

35.1

12.2

16.7

33.35

-0.15

99.7

173.4

Shree Renuka Sugar

1618

1

20.4

7.03

15.35

17.42

8.54

13.5

147.8

Simbhaoli Sugar

68

10

24.05

7.6

14

24.05

9.82

71.8

216.4

Triveni Engineering

956

1

39.8

14.4

23.5

37.05

8.18

57.7

157.3

Uttam Sugar

128

10

34.4

9.14

15.5

33.7

-0.6

117.4

268.7

What now going forward into 2016 !? Can One yet Consider hopping on to the Sugar Bandwagon even now?

Well a few sugar sector analysts expect a good run for the next two years after a cyclical bad time past few years….just like the Aviation Sector that has returned to spectacular profits as Oil prices halved and thus halving Aviation Turbine Fuel Prices that make up @ 50% of the Costs

These Commodity Cycles are tricky to gauge & hence the huge Volatility swings over time…literally Sugar is not in everybody’s cup of tea !…probably only those aggressive

If considering to increase or initiate exposure in the Sugar Sector,just do your Homework on Potential Non Linear Profitability coming up in Sugar Companies going forward and assess how much of this euphoria is already reflected in current Share Prices…many companies are in the restructuring stage after some gruesome years battling low sugar prices and high indebtedness & losses….many crippled factories have even shut down

Otherwise you could land up being a victim of ‘Herd’ Mentality because you just ‘Heard’ !

However  my intention is neither to scare you nor to make you excited !

Just don’t put 14 spoons of Sugar in your Tea !  

 

Nitin asks about ~ Tide Water Oil yet solid at Rs 6750 while Shree Renuka Sugars at Rs 25+ has disappointed greatly and eroded by 70% with continuing micro and macro industry woes

Nitin  asks about ~ Tide Water Oil (TWO) at Rs 6750 and Shree Renuka Sugars (SRS)at Rs 25+ at subdued Sensex and Nifty levels of sub 16200 and 4900 respectively 

My Views on these two Scrips are contrasting….. TWO continues to be solid despite some margin stress,while SRS has disappointed greatly and eroded by 70% with continuing micro and macro industry woes and struggles to service high Debt and regain significant lost ground  in the share price

TWO @ Rs 6750 (FV Rs 10)

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Tide_Water_Oil_(India)_Ltd_300512_Rst.pdf

Standalone Networth at March 31,2012 is Rs 308 crs with Equity low at Rs 87 lakhs (FV Rs 10) giving a Book of @ Rs 3500 per share and thus a P/BV just below 2…Has no Bonus History but has just announced doubling of Dividend from last year => Rs 120/ share  => 1200% => 1.77% yeild…will involve Rs 10.45 crs and this is  yet below 20% of PAT payout

Standalone PAT has dropped yoy from Rs 64 crs to Rs 59 crs as Cost of raw materials consumed has moved sharply up to 69% of Net Sales from 63%….Though Selling & Marketing Costs have shown a significant decline it is largely offset by the jump in other expenses

Nearly all of the Networth  =>Rs 292 crs is the Capital Deployed in the Core Business of Oil and Grease,leaving little scope for Other Income Generation through Investments …Standalone EPS has dropped yoy to Rs 678  (consolidated is yet lower at Rs 665 after considering two Veedol subs) from Rs 736….Price Earning Multiples hover around 10

Market Cap is @ Rs 600 crs while Net FY 12 Sales were @ Rs 800 crs

The 52 Week Share Price range is Rs 8540 and Rs 5676

Government PSU Andrew Yule holds 228390 shares of TWO =>26.22% of the Equity => worth @ Rs 150 crs at CMP of Rs 6750…A few years ago Andrew Yule had approached the Government to allow it to sell the TWO Stake to help it recover….it then withdrew this request as it began to recover in it’s operations and was able to raise funds  without resorting to the sales of TWO Shares

There are @ 12500 TWO Shareholders,but none is a FII…Apart from Andrew Yule,the other significant holdings are with LIC (4.22%),United Insurance (10.04%) and a few Body Corporates  like Victory Retail Marketing (4.61%) and Standard Greases & Specialities (23.24%,that’s higher than even Andrew Yule Holding))…TWO Employee Welfare Trust holds 2.57% with a current value of @ Rs 15 crs => half of annual Employee benefit expenses of @ Rs 30 crs

read more

Sugar Sweet…no diabetes in sight (Green Light)…..Telecom Voice Breaking (Red Light)…..IT dropping with the Dollar (Orange Light)

The Trafiic Signals are clearly at work in these Three Sectors….It’s Green for Sugar,Red for Telecom and Orange for IT

Sugar Stocks are at just 3 Million tonnes…that’s going to last  a month and a half…India consumes 2 million tonnes a month….Last year we produced a record low ! of below 15 million tonnes and had to import…This year our production will be marginally higher at 16 million…we will yet have to import…half of the imports have gone through…half remain….so sugar prices will have to come to import parity and then remain in the Rs 32 to Rs 35  per kilo range for the coming year….if not more !….the sector is on a roll

Telecom is facing Intense competition….margins are going to drop significantly as cheaper and cheaper schemes get announced…great for the consumer…not so great for the Company…and companies hope to make it up by increased volumes….there remains a big question mark on this strategy…..Bharti ,Rel Com scrip prices are justifiably dropping

IT….Rupee to the US Dollar was Rs 52…now Rs 48…expected Rs 42 in the next six months….so expect continuing dollar depreciation to impact IT Scrips…Tomorrow Infosys begins the Q2 Earnings Announcement Season….let’s see what their Gurus say