Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

“Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

“Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

 & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

Cheers !

A Dose of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on Future of Equity Market

Methinks every Indian Equity Investor needs a dose of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (RJ) every few years! ~ any sooner it could be an Overdose !  😆 ~ just kidding !

I like the guy ! ~ right since I interacted with him when I invited him around 15 years ago at the turn of this century for interacting in an evening  Q & A session with my packed class of @ 90 participants in my Equity Portfolio Structuring and Stock Analysis Workshop at the BSE Training Institute as I thought he would add practical value & he did

“Boss ! I’m a Sadak Chaap ! ”  he had told us then as also how he had reconstructed his equity portfolio to concentrate only in a few stocks after the 2000 ICE debacle…so in a sense most of his Wealth has grown only in this Millennium in the past 15 years ~ and to his credit in Selections that were not really Blue Chip or Core

Yesterday had gone for an  IMC interactive meet in Mumbai to check out if RJ has sobered & matured in his ‘manner of speak’ over the years ~ I rarely watch Stock Channels ~ don’t even have a TV in office~  so was not really conversant with how & what he delivered in his appearances though knew of his initiating big stakes in companies

I am delighted to blog he has not changed ! ~ shot straight from the hip & mouth again as he always does ” I’m a satodia(translated to mean speculator)  & investor & not an economist” ~ his investment portfolio has spread into the Alternatives of  Bollywood Movie Production too with Kareena & Arjun starrer ‘Ki & Ka’ being his latest co production~ is into horse racing too and owns a few horses ~ passions perhaps where return on investments need not be measured in monies !?

Many perceive him as Dehati or Crude Dude for his rustic loud boorish way of speech~ but don’t let it fool you ! & he does not make any pretenses ~ he’s a CA by training & wears a fairly sharp mind

Money Talks & Crowd Laps it up all !~ many vigorously & ‘knowledgeably’ nodding in agreement

These RJ’s views & responses to questions posed should interest you :

On The Future of Equity Markets ~ Reiterates this is only the Trailer & we are going to witness a Mother of all Bull Runs.India is a thriving young Democracy with US $ 600 b in Savings every year.Equity Markets receive just US $ 50 b from this.This has to improve and it will ~ anyone ,any  doubt!?   

On Returns from Equity  ~ Ironically while his riches have been through multibagger 1000% + equity gains in concentrated high weightage stocks like Titan & Crisil he asserts that one should be happy with 18% CAGR gains and if it goes to 24% one should be really happy

read more

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  1. Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  2. Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  3. Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  4. Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  5. India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  6. Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  7.  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  8. Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  9.  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  10.    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  11. All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  12. Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  13. Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  14. Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end

read more

Super ! 23 Participants with 40 Stock Selections for 2015 in the TAP GAP Poser

Super ! 23 Participants with 40 Stock Selections for 2015 in the TAP GAP Poser

TAP GAP Poser End 2014 ~Which Indian Company Will Be A Big Share Price Winner In 2015?
December 15th, 2014

I shall shortly pick a gauravblog hamper Winner or maybe two where I see maximum gain potential in 2015 from the following

Participant wise

Sr No

Participant

Recommendation

Date of Recommendation

Price in Rs when recommended

1

Sumit Khanna

Subros

15.12.2014

67.85

PTC India Financial Services Ltd

17.12.2014

56.4

2

Jigam Gandhi

Wendt India

15.12.2014

2000

3

Sandeep Gahandule

Nathbiogene

16.12.2014

130.55

Prima Plastic

17.12.2014

56

JM Financial

18.12.2014

47.6

4

Bhaskar

IPCA Labs

16.12.2014

723.55

5

Nitin

Ajanta Pharma

16.12.2014

2528.65

Atul Auto

16.12.2014

601

6

Anand

Raj Rayon

17.12.2014

0.66

Jubilant Life Sciences

30.12.2014

119.95

7

Prasad

Nbcc

18.12.2014

792.05

Capital First

30.12.2014

353.4

TV Today

30.12.2014

215.2

8

Rohit

 Adani Enterprises

20.12.2014

452.05

9

Prasad Shetty

Multibase

21.12.2014

227.9

10

Kushal Shah

MCX

22.12.2014

838.95

Jet Airways

22.12.2014

389.7

11

Rajan

Motherson Sumi Systems

22.12.2014

440.2

12

Hemant

NETWORK 18

22.12.2014

66

Intellect Design

22.12.2014

75.6

Pipavav Defence

22.12.2014

39.75

13

Raj

Odyssey Technologies

22.12.2014

33.65

14

Shiva

Granules India

23.12.2014

777

Mayur Uniquoters

23.12.2014

415.4

SpiceJet

23.12.2014

19.3

15

Abhay Tewari

Suzlon Energy

23.12.2014

13.45

16

Pushkar Prasad

Freshtrop Fruits

24.12.2014

115.9

17

Dhiren

Tata Sponge

26.12.2014

680

18

N Sri

Deccan Gold Mine

28.12.2014

42.95

19

Sameer

Spicejet

30.12.2014

17.95

Deccan Gold Mine

30.12.2014

44

Muthoot Capital Services

30.12.2014

207.15

20

Shahzad V

Engineers India Ltd

31.12.2014

229.75

AkzoNobel

31.12.2014

1384.1

Aries Agro

31.12.2014

117.4

21

Kiran

Vidhi Dyestuffs

31.12.2014

17.16

22

Vishal Kejriwal

CCL Products

1.1.2015

170.95

Oriental Carbon Chemical Ltd

1.1.2015

361.55

Hinduja Global Solutions Ltd

1.1.2015

631.75

23

Rudra Tandan

Ram Ratna Wires

2.1.2015

48

Foseco

2.1.2015

1227.55

Alphabetical Scripwise

Sr No. Scrip Recommended for 2015 Price in Rs when recommended Participant
1 Adani Enterprise 452.05 Rohit
2 Ajanta Pharma 2528.65 Nitin
3 Akzo Nobel 1384.1 Shahzad V
4 Aries Agro 117.4 Shahzad V
5 Atul Auto 601 Nitin
6 CCL Products 170.95 Vishal Kejriwal
7 Capital First 353.4 Prasad
8 Deccan Gold 42.95 N Sri
9 Deccan Gold 44 Sameer
10 Engineers Ind 229.75 Shahzad V
11 Foseco India 1227.55 Rudra Tandan
12 Freshtrop Fruit 115.9 Pushkar Prasad
13 Granules India 777 Shiva
14 Hinduja Global 631.75 Vishal Kejriwal
15 Intellect Design Arena 75.6 Hemant
16 Ipca Labs 723.55 Bhaskar
17 JM Financial 47.6 Sandeep Gahandule
18 Jet Airways 389.7 Kushal Shah
19 Jubilant Life 119.95 Anand
20 MCX India 838.95 Kushal Shah
21 Mayur Uniquoter 415.4 Shiva
22 Motherson Sumi 440.2 Rajan
23 Multibase India 227.9 Prasad Shetty
24 Muthoot Cap 207.15 Sameer
25 NBCC 792.05 Prasad
26 Nath Bio-Genes 130.55 Sandeep Gahandule
27 Network 18 66 Hemant
28 Odyssey Technologies 33.65 Raj
29 Oriental Carbon 361.55 Vishal Kejriwal
30 PTC India Financial Services 56.4 Sumit Khanna
31 Pipavav Defence 39.75 Hemant
32 Prima Plastics 56 Sandeep Gahandule
33 Raj Rayon Ind 0.66 Anand
34 Ram Ratna Wires 48 Rudra Tandan
35 SpiceJet 17.95 Sameer
36 SpiceJet 19.3 Shiva
37 Subros 67.85 Sumit Khanna
38 Suzlon Energy 13.45 Abhay Tewari
39 TV TodayNetwork 215.2 Prasad
40 Tata Sponge 680 Dhiren
41 Vidhi Dyestuffs 17.16 Kiran
42 Wendt 2000 Jigam Gandhi

Note :

  1. Sandeep Gahandule who just won the hamper for Alphageo’s spectacular 720% run in 2014 has contributed three selections for 2015 this time too
  2. Anand,who ran neck to neck with Sandeep till November 2014,when his low priced Rs 7 YBrant  was up against Alphageo has yet again given one really low priced selection Raj Rayon of just 66 paise !
  3. Deccan Gold & Spicejet occur twice as they constitute selections from two different participants
  4. Prices at which Recommended have either been provided by the Participant when making the Reco and reflect the current market price at the time or where they have not stated the price,the last price when they made the reco has been sourced from the BSE & NSE
  5. Most have not given targets for 2015 Selections but the four selections that have been given targets and all are  over 100% + except one,are as follows : Freshtop Fruits Rs 250,PTC India Financial Services Rs 90,Subros Rs 150 and Tata Sponge Rs 1500+
  6. Adani Group finds representation but none from the Ambani Groups ~ perhaps realisation that Reliance Ind has been a losing 5 year Investment thus far and ADAG Companies have struggled
  7. Tata Sponge is the lone entry from the Tata Group.
  8. Media and Aviation have two each in Network 18 and TV Today and Jet Airways & Spicejet respectively
  9. Pharma & Auto Ancilliaries & NBFCs &  IT  & Speciality & Commodity Chemical Sectors are well represented
  10. Can see a few potential turnaround selections as well as a few that have already run up huge in 2014
  11. Tea & Coffee Beverages & Renewable Energy & Defence are represented but none from direct Power,Telecom or Real Estate or Retail
  12. No Bank & no Oil & Gas Major  & No visible Large Cap ! but Three Selections are also traded in the Derivatives Segment,namely,Adani Enterprise,Engineers India & Motherson Sumi

Going to be an interesting few days filtering all the above

Facebook trumps Google in buying out Whatsapp at US $ 19 billion…and it seems like a bargain !

Facebook trumps Google in buying out Whatsapp at US $ 19 billion…and it seems like a bargain !

US  $ 19 billion (Rs 118237 crs at US $=Rs 62.23) or thereabouts is also the current Market Capitalisation of ICICI Bank (Rs 118725 crs) or Bharti Airtel (Rs 117685 crs) or even HUL (Rs 120000 crs)……or the combined Market Cap of two Oil Companies,Cairn India (Rs 62250 crs) and Indian Oil (Rs 57850 crs)….or the combined Market Cap of the three PSU OMCs Indian Oil (Rs 57850 crs) ,BPCL ( Rs 25307 crs) and HPCL ( Rs 8189 crs) with Oil India (Rs 26915 crs) thrown in too !

Sharing and reproducing what I just read on a fb post…….

Brian Acton applied for a job in Facebook (2009), but was rejected.

He met Koum and started Whatsapp.

Yesterday Facebook bought Whatsapp for 19 billion dollar (Indian Rupees One lakh eighteen thousand + Crores).

When you create a project that makes a difference is  Valuable and Unique, this is what you end up creating – History!

Some figures regarding FB and WA:
19 billion $ is big money. To understand in Indian perspective…
1 billion = 100 crores = 1,000,000,000
19 billion = 1900 crores = 19,000,000,000
1$ = Rs 62.23
19 billion $ = Rs 1,182,370,000,000
That is 1.18 lakh crore

What can be bought in how much Rs?
1 crore : A flat / luxury car
10 crores : A bungalow
100 crores : 1 village (equivalent real estate)
1000 crores : 10 villages
10000 crores : 100 villages
100000 crores : 1000 villages (a state as big as Bihar, 1 lakh sq km)

It is certainly big money.

WhatsApp has 450 million active users.
450 million = 450,000,000
Acquisition cost = 1,182,370,000,000 Rs
Cost of acquiring 1 customer = Rs 2627/- (42 $)

For just Rs 2627 (42 USD) per user , Facebook has got the following information for 450 million users which includes CXO’s, Heads of states, Politicians, Defence personnel… and also the common man:
1. Name of user
2. Users mobile number
3. His email Id
4. His location
5. Other credentials like mobile model, service provider, etc.
6. His likes and dislikes
7. His religious belief
8. Which political party he supports
9. His profession
10. His hobbies
11. His photographs
12. His health status
13. His financial status
14. His family background
15. ….. And so many other things!

A good deal indeed!

2013 Noble Laureate & Economist Robert Shiller is worried that US Stocks continue Rising

Nobel Laureate 2013 for Economics, Robert Shiller is worried about a Bubble developing in US Stocks & Real Estate in Brazil

 

2013 Noble Laureate & Economist Robert Shiller is worried that US Stocks continue to Rise and Real Estate in Brazil does too

He is the Yale Professor the World listens too as he correctly predicted the Sub Prime Mortgage Housing Crisis in US  and before that the dot.com bust.

“I am most worried about the boom in the U.S. stock market. Also because our economy is still weak and vulnerable,”  ~ he feels Finance and Technology Stocks are overvalued 

“I am not yet sounding the alarm. But in many countries stock exchanges are at a high level and prices have risen sharply in some property markets.That could end badly.”

Interesting,in this context,to see  how India will pan out in Equities & Realty in the General Election Year 2014