Looooooooong Full House Saturday Equity Mumbai Workshop Sept 14 2019

It was a looooooooong,should have held it over two days,  Full House Equity Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,September 14,2019 with a whole spectrum of smart participants that made for really invigorating interaction ~they came from Mumbai,Gurgaon & Pune ~ from young upwardly mobile grads & post grads from top ranked Management Institutes in India,UK (London) & USA(Harvard) to ‘ well tuned in’ professionals from the IT ,Consultancy,Broking,Corporate & Banking Sectors to veteran high networth investors . We commenced at 9.30 am & concluded well beyond 7.30 pm ~ 🙂 should have arranged dinner too

Thank you Guys !

Here are a few candid clicks from the Workshop :

The Coverage was expansive & the Interaction from Participants very intelligent & which opened out many threads that we examined with anecdotal support . When analysing a company ,they asked what is “Non Negotiable” &  “How to have Foresight as on Hindsight we are always right”

Really a lot was covered ,some of which is below  :

  • Macros through :
  1. Examining the Equity Table’s four legs of Valuation,Liquidity,Momentum & Sentiment & the Impact of FPI Flows ~ when Valuation,which should be the strongest leg,sometimes takes a back seat as Liquidity or even a lack of it drives the momentum & sentiment
  2.  Not getting Seduced by any Bounce at  Friday closing Sensex 37385 & Nifty 11076 Levels as Caution is strongly indicated by domestic & overseas economy & geo-political headwinds
  3. Negative Interest Rates Era vs the Magic of Compounding in such meltdowns
  4. Sensex & Earnings & Market Cap & low GDP growth Dynamics on Levels & Valuations ~ Past,Present & Forward & why downside risk remains wide open while the upside appears capped for now ~ we referred to 1991/92 abnormally high Sensex PE pre Harshad Mehta Scam exposure & the High PE in 2000 with Ketan Parekh was in action & where the markets were clearing running ahead of fundamentals by huge margins~ we referred to the Sensex PE of just 6 in the late 1980s when VP Singh was the PM 1988~ we covered Mkt Cap/GDP Highs pre Lehman collapse in 2007/8 & the levels now
  5. Fx Reserves  & Exchange Rate Risk &  the Risk of increasing Sovereign Debt as planned by Government ~ How our Rupee has always had a South trajectory,except when it soared from Rs 49 to the US $ to Rs 39 to the US $ creating havoc especially in the Diamond Sector
  6. Why Inversely co-related Gold & US $ are moving up together instead
  7. Turm-Oil & Impact on Fiscal Deficit & Rupee  like last happened in 2007/8( On Saturday at the workshop we were not yet clued in to the Drone Attack on the Oil Refinery in Saudi Arabia that saw Oil Prices dangerously soar 20% in spot) ~ India is hugely dependent on Oil Imports
  8. Interest & Inflation rates
  9. Trump ~ Not sure if he’s a macro or micro factor !
  • Micros through many companies  & sector dynamics covering :
  1. Checklist on how to Smartly & Effectively & thus Quickly Read a voluminous Annual Report
  2. Our Five Steps for Evaluating a Company for Investment
  3. Impact on the Financial Statements in Scenarios like Buy Back,Rights Issues,Fictitious Sales,RBI issuing a divergence on Provisioning for NPAs,non linear jump in Sales Realisations,5 G Spectrum Fees,Permanent Diminution in Investments,Monetising Assets & Depreciation of the Rupee
  4. Quick Brief on Absolute & Relative Valuation & how to prepare a quick Valuation Grid from the Annual Report, Market Price Trends & Shareholding
  5. Why Liquidity more than Profitability is the ‘Circle of Life’  for a Company as viewed through the lens of the Cash Flow Statement dervived from the Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss Ac & that distinguishes operating,financing & investing flows
  6. Corporate Governance Issues on inadequate Disclosure or Non Disclosure, Incorrect & questionable Accounting Treatment & Lack of Transparency &  irresponsible (deliberate?)  Management utterances  that give a leg to Insider Trading & huge Profits through  Derivatives Play
  7. Courage & Conviction Promoter or Institutional recent Buying in Vodafone,Yes Bank,I B Real Estate & Tata Motors & seeing more wealth destruction since in these   
  8. Basis for Disclaimer of Opinion by the Auditor of Reliance Infrastructure & what holds out some hope
  9. Intangibles,Investments & Impairments
  10. Reliance Industries’s Enterprise Value,Revenue Segments Potential,Spin offs of the Jio Telecom Infra into two trusts, Aramco’s 20% stake being negotiated in the Refining,Petroleum Retailing & Petrochemicals Business that should lead to further demerger & reviving & scaling the Gas Exploration Operations
  11. How Defaults & Corporate Governance Issues decimated into or near oblivion Eros,Cox & Kings,ManPasand,Tree House Education,Satyam,Jet Airways,Kingfisher & Talwalkars & is there any hope of operational & share price recovery with Asset values holding out some hope in a few ~ How Clearly the Statutory Auditors & Credit Rating Agencies were negligent or intentionally turned a blind eye in many cases
  12. Huge Potential Outlay of the ‘Nal sey Jal’ Scheme of the Government & the new Jal Shakti Ministry focus that should benefit many companies if the implementation & execution is as noteworthy as the intent
  13. How IndAs 115 continues to affect Bombay Dyeing
  14. How Exchanges continue to accept outright untrue or tepid clarifications from Companies
  15. Reference to Investment Gurus & Living Legends Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch Approaches & Success
  16.  Coverage of a few sectors like Defence, Hydrocarbons,Broking,Telecom,Real Estate,NBFCs,Banks & Automobiles & Disruption that’s in play in many
  17. Consolidation & Capitalisation of PSU Banks & the controversial Acquisition of Laxmi Vilas Bank by I B Housing Finance pending RBI approval
  18. Common Investor Mistakes

The next Equity Workshop is scheduled  pre-Diwali for Saturday ,October 19,2019 & will be announced soon on www.jsalphaa.com & social media

Touched by some warm & constructive feedback from participants :

  • thanks for a lovely interactive session…”
  • “enjoyed your session yday”
  • “it was great to meet again & reskill to be better prepared for opportunities which would arise”
  • “Thanks for being the Enabler,the last few days have been very encouraging”
  • “Cover the Scenarios Exercise more with Investor focus than just on Accounting Impact & take in a few Annual Reports before Lunch”  

😆 & I swear I did not pay for these ones !

  • ” You are very good at what you do,comes naturally to you,with a vastness of the subject to cover you did justice to cover the best you could with your insights and experience of all the treasures of knowledge,you are an encyclopedia of the subject with case studies,which is the best way of teaching, sharing & learning according to me,the various industries that you know of,the processes & the products,the promoters & the pitfalls,the auditors & the audited,you can understand in the readings the stated & the unstated,intention & intended,you truly personify_the integration of intellect with instinct_”   
  • “Whoever missed this one, missed learning a radical way to look at balance sheets. Very practically in a few minutes you can strip away the padding and bullshit that promoters hide their sins behind. If the stock market’s motto or rather rider has always been caveat emptor or buyer beware, Gaurav’s lessons in Analysis would ensure that a “fool and his money are not soon parted” for when emotions like fear and greed coupled with ignorance seize us even the wisest are prone to behave like fools. Especially the wisest!”
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    Sat 24 Aug 2019 Mumbai Equity Workshop on Stripping Annual Reports ~ Bullshit or Badass

     🙂 Are you yet Alive in these Markets !?  😯 Wish to remain so ?

    Then after June 22,2019 , here’s another great  Rs 9000 opportunity to attend my Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop  ~ 😆 Please don’t ask for any discount because I can’t say No !

    Interpretation of Financial Statements
    Indian Equity ~ (St)Ripping Annual Reports ~ Bullshit or Badass
    Full Saturday, August 24, 2019

    Limited Seats so do book yours right away here => www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    No prior Financial or fundamental knowledge is required. Just come with an Open Mind dressed with Common sense to realise how uncommon it really is ! At the time of Registration or even later you can even request for a Specific Company you wish who’s Annual Report be (st)ripped at the Workshop 

    Here’s a warm testimonial from a participant who flew in from Accra,Ghana for the June 22,2019 workshop on Sensex at 40000 ~ Treasure & Traps where we covered Risk Profiling & Returns ,Scenarios & Scrips,Macros & Mistakes,Treasures & Traps ~ assessing many on Value Vs Price ~ 😀 Yes, the workshop did go on till much later than scheduled close,as is usual….there was so much fun interaction,again as is usual

    ” It was a privilege to attend your workshop.I gained a lot of wisdom & knowledge.Many thanks & God Bless ” 

    & another from a repeat participant ” Many many thanks Gaurav.It was really wonderful.Really appreciate all the efforts and the sharing of your knowledge.It was outstanding ” 

    There’s a comprehensive Workshop Template on the Registration link that details out why you should attend & what benefits you can expect to derive

    Here are a few extracts from this  Workshop Template that should convince you to be there on Saturday,August 24,2019

    It’s been a market meltdown of frightening proportion across the Board, except in a few ,visibly an (un)lucky 13 that constitute high weightage in the Sensex & Nifty that has kept these Indices alive at 38000 & 11000 yet

    The ‘Fun’ in  ‘Fun’damental Stock Stories too has vanished with Equity Portfolios showing strong depression in almost all stock selections across sectors & Market Cap segments  

    Company Annual Report ~ Can we yet revere it as the Bible or Bhagvad Gita or Quran for Company Performance !?

    Never judge a Book by it’s Cover.We’ve seen the Annual Report sabotaged, painted & tainted by sub standard supervision , monitoring & assessment ,intentional or otherwise, by Banks & other Lending Institutions, Statutory & Internal Auditors , Regulators & Credit Rating Agencies. read more

    Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 22 2019 ~ Sensex at 40000 ~ Treasures & Traps

    The last Seven Workshops have seen a Full House  & great interaction 

    Here’s another lovely Opportunity 

    Register for the Workshop here 

    Saturday, June 22, 2019

    Fundamental Equity Workshop in Mumbai
    Stock Selection ~ Value Vs Price
    Indian Equity ~ Sensex at 40,000 ~ Treasures & Traps

    Limited Seats – Single Registration at Rs 12,000 ~ Group Registration of 3 or more at Rs 10,200 each

    Save this Date & register for  another great opportunity to interact for a full Saturday ~ You can even request coverage of any particular company or companies when you register

    Trapped in Scrips that have destroyed wealth  ? ~ Want to develop foresight in avoiding such Value Traps by identifying Red Flags before hand from Corporate Governance Issues & Financial Statements & other coverage in Annual Reports ?

    How to position the Equity portfolio with Sensex at record 40000 ~ Do Valuations look stretched in the short term ?

    How to protect Wealth while creating it in Direct Equity? ~ Need  Conviction to Invest in Direct Equity ?

    We shall be addressing these & many more concerns  at this Mumbai Workshop  

    Look forward to seeing you at the Workshop

    Any Queries or need guidance call me on +91-9820162597 or on + 91-22-42304140 or email me at gaurav@jsalphaa.com

    Cheers,

    Gaurav

     

    Gaurav A Parikh

    Workshop Conceptualised & Conducted by

    GAURAV A PARIKH

    Treasures & Traps ~ Rewards & Risks ~ Clearly this is the moot mindset focus currently with Sensex & Nifty recording all time highs of 40000 & 12000 respectively driven by a handful of high index weightage core stocks on the second TsuNaMo election wave in five years.

    Gaurav A ParikhCapital Protection  is a ‘must have’  Mindset  at all times for serious Wealth Creation through Equity.While Growing your Wealth it’s equally imperative to Protect it.

    One way to do so is to develop fundamental conviction & foresight to consciously avoid ‘Value Traps’ like Suzlon & Subex & PC Jewellers & Manpasand Beverages & Vakrangee & not be seduced or influenced by those who peddle such on social & print media & stock channels.

    In such record bullish momentum on the Sensitive Indices it is FOMO or the Fear of Missing Out that is the biggest seducer as many influencing voices call  these  or near these record levels as the new bottom on the Sensitive Indices.

    This Workshop will equip you to deal with these questions :

    • How to assess the capacity & the willingness to assume Equity Risk?
    • How to Fundamentally Value & Select & Weight the Companies in a Portfolio ?
    • How do Company Valuations rack up against their Share Price now? ~ If there is Value, where can we find it as we negotiate these bullish markets which heightens the risk of more & more ‘Value Traps’ emerging
    • How should one read & interpret News & Views in the Print & Social Media & on Stock Portals & Channels ?
    • What are the red flags one should look for in an Annual Report ?
    • How much of such Interpretation & Valuation is already reflected in the Share Price ?
    • Where can we pin down Certainty in the Uncertainty in Equity Markets ?
    • How to strengthen resolve & conviction to hold on to Selections even when facing unrealized losses?
    • When & How to decide a Switch in Equity Holdings?
    • How not to let Emotion & Ego dictate holding on to Losers & Wealth Destroyers & just letting them go or avoiding them in the first place?

    Invest a Saturday with Gaurav to discuss & debate all the above & more & to appreciate that Wealth of Mind & Monies must Move in Tandem & fundamentally assess Macros & Micros. read more

    Q&A Outlook Business~Dont See Elections as a Risk Factor for Indian Equities~See Value Pockets across Sectors

    Screenshot_20190424-142037 Screenshot_20190424-141916 Screenshot_20190424-141824 Screenshot_20190424-141733 Screenshot_20190424-141724 Screenshot_20190424-141717 Screenshot_20190424-141704 Screenshot_20190424-141649 Screenshot_20190424-141628 Screenshot_20190424-141620 Screenshot_20190424-141609 Screenshot_20190424-141525

    Some of you may be interested in this ~ It’s a brief video Interview that Outlook Business has carried on their website www.outlookbusiness.com  & on YouTube this month April 2019 & which can be viewed below reflecting my views on :

    • Lok Sabha Elections that have commenced~ don’t see them a as a risk factor for Indian Equities
    • Value Pockets across Sectors,PSUs too
    • A convincing real estate play ~ if inclined,do also read the detailed coverage  here 

    Wishing all of you a profitable Financial Year 2019-20 after a roller coaster emotional FY 2018-19 for most who lived a disconnect between  Sensex & Nifty seeking record highs  & Small & Mid Caps giving up significant gains in quick time too

    Cheers !

    Valuation!Valuation!Valuation!~Lovely Interactive Equity Workshop

    Fabulous Participants & Fabulous Interaction at the Equity Workshop
    Fabulous Participants & Fabulous Interaction at the Equity Workshop

    It was quite an interactive Saturday at the Full House Fundamental Equity Value Vs Price Mumbai MasterClass on Compounding & Capital Protection

    We began in earnest at 9.30 am right through to 8 pm~ so much debated from current unnerving market meltdowns & what should be mindsets & strategies in such times that suddenly overcast us in September ~ of Courage & Conviction & Cash ~ what if one is fully Invested ? should one average? should one exit ? why in panic one tends to always sell off the winners to realise whatever profit in hand & let’ losers drag? ….lot’s of questions that were addressed with a confidence culled from such experiences in the past thirty years

    They came from all around ~ rookies to veterans ~ small to High Net Worth ~ from Broking Houses,J P Morgan,Accenture,Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank,Cap Gemini,Reliance,Moneycontrol etc

    We covered Time Value,Volatility,Valuation & Asset Allocation with Illustrations of over 25 companies with few of them in detailed Valuation over Earnings & Assets & Challenges faced…went through a few Annual Reports & Interim Results & Exchange Notifications & Developments through News in the Media…checked price trends in the short term & even over last ten years to assess Risk & Reward  & Mispricing Opportunities

    How the discipline of Valuation & Asset Allocation is your Weapon for Survival & Wealth Protection while growing it & to stay away from Noise & Insider trading & from those who know nothing or even more dangerous from those who don’t know they know nothing !

    Valuation ! Valuation ! Valuation ! …how this leg of the equity table actually must be the most solid to hold the table together when the other leg of Liquidity  props up the remaining two legs of Sentiment & Momentum ~ Impact & Quantum of  FPI & DII Flows especially when they slow down or reverse

    Put up Friday,September 28,2018 closing prices touchlines of over 200 scrips & even those separately in the Finance,Pharma & Realty Space showing the wealth destruction in them from their 52 week Highs….alarming yes,but is there value re-emerging in many? ~ Showcased a Core Scrips Valuation Grid too

    In this continuing market meltdown across the board that has knocked off 50% & more in many that actually hold wealth creation potential & in many that simply were wealth destroyers in the making & should never have been married to ,who can one trust for relevant,reliable & timely information & unbiased & wise interpretation ? ~ Government,Exchanges & Regulatory authorities,Bankers, Auditors,Media,Brokers,Experts,Promoters & Fund Managers of PMS & MFs,Company Promoters & Management ? Who ? read more

    Fundamental Equity Mumbai MasterClass ~ Sat Sept 29 2018

    Hey! here’s a Fundamental Equity Mumbai MasterClass you should attend on Saturday,September 29,2018

    Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

    It’s a back to back month Workshop as many could not be accommodated in the August 2018 Workshop.This is a MasterClass that focuses on Compounding & Capital Protection & involves diving deeper into data & interpretation & deliberations  

    Fundamental Equity MasterClass in Mumbai
    Stock Selection ~ Value Vs Price

    Indian Equity ~ Compounding & Capital Protection ~ The Magic & Miracle in this Market Matrix

    Saturday, September 29, 2018

    There’s a lot that we shall cover on the day foremost of which is :

    We’ll take a Listed Company ,which you can suggest too when you register, & :

    ~ We’ll check out the Promoter & Management Pedigree & their skin in the company & assess any Corporate Governance Issues

    ~ We’ll discuss & debate the Business Model ~ Dynamics of Demand & Supply,Scale of Opportunity,Resources,Pricing Power & Competition among others to gauge if  intention is backed by ability to execute & perform

    ~ We’ll rip through the Annual Report & latest Financial Performance understanding how to read & interpret these…what they state …or do not state ! .We’ll work our way through Exchange Notifications & News & Views in the Print & Social Media & on Stock Portals & TV Channels

    ~ We’ll work out the Valuation of the Company on several relative & absolute,traditional & contemporary basis

    ~ We’ll then make an assessment of Value Vs Share Price to gauge how much of it is already factored into the Price…the less it has ,the more the opportunity beckons  

    With confidence & conviction you will not only be able to read & interpret Auditors Report,Profit & Loss Statement,Balance Sheet,Cash Flow Statement & Notes to Accounts  but will be equipped to assess their impact & bearing,along with other objective & subjective factors, on Valuation & further on the Share Price

    This is a MasterClass…so we shall be going real deep in debate & discussion & deliberations after some deep reading & interpretation & deep valuation computations to decide with deep conviction if there indeed exists a deep compounding opportunity & what could be the downside risk in context of Capital Protection

    The Investing process dialogue will cover Themes,Approaches,Strategies,Concepts,Gurus,Mistakes

    You shall be able to read any Research Report with a detached mind thus not blindly accepting all that is stated or concluded in it.In fact you shall be able to create a decisive Research Report yourself read more