Congrats Shobhit ! You win the retro TAP GAP 2016 hamper for Lakshmi Energy & Foods

Sadly TAP GAP 2017 cannot be announced  for now as SEBI has proposed a blanket ban on such competitions.More on this at the end of this post

But First the Good News for Shobhit who contributed MIC,Subex and Lakhsmi Overseas in TAP GAP 2016.MIC lost one fourth value in 2016 while Subex is down 6.5% after promising starts

But Hey Shobhit ,your Lakshmi Overseas,now named Lakshmi Energy & Foods Ltd,came from behind in the second half of 2016 and recorded the highest gains from all the 101 entries in TAP GAP 2016 pipping Vishal Kejriwal’s Kisan Moulding to second spot .Your gauravblog hamper ,as promised ,will soon be on it’s way to you

Here’s the final performance in 2016 of all the 101 entries after adjusting for Bonus & Splits in 2016 in several scrips.If I’ve left out some adjustment do let me know.Kaveri Seeds,for which I had announced Pushkar as the winner,earlier in 2016 has gained @ 28%,even though it had  locked horns with the Government on Monsanto’s high royalties on their genetically modified cotton seeds

It’s been a near even split with 51 recording gains of which 9 more than doubled. 49 showed negative returns of which serious wealth destruction was seen in many notably Sanjivani Paranterals,Ricoh (suspended last month) & Trilogic Digital 

Scrips CMP

(Rs)

Intra 3/1/2017

Inv Price

(Rs)

Overall Gain

(Rs)

Overall %
LAKSHMIO 65.9 17.1 48.8 285.38
KISAN 72 21.3 50.7 238.03
APTECHT 173.9 61.5 112.4 182.76
STYLAMIND 458.15 188.2 269.95 143.44
UJAAS 49.9 21.3 28.6 134.27
DONEAR 64.85 28.9 35.95 124.39
BAMBINO (2) 263.7 127 273.4 107.64
ASALCBR 95 45.82 49.18 107.33
MRSS 152.9 76.3 76.6 100.39
ODYSSEY 77.95 41.05 36.9 89.89
JKPAPER 87 45.95 41.05 89.34
UDAICEMENT 21.35 11.51 9.84 85.49
KAMAHOLD 2,416.00 1,345.75 1,070.25 79.53
UFLEX 278 156.05 121.95 78.15
TIIL 368.35 212.8 155.55 73.1
INDIANACRY 17.6 10.54 7.06 66.98
VAKRANGEE 274.05 165.5 108.55 65.59
HERITGFOOD 871 526.5 344.5 65.43
VIRINCHI 71 44.9 26.1 58.13
CGCL 56.1 36.6 19.5 53.28
MCX 1,259.90 832.05 427.85 51.42
CAPF 573 381.55 191.45 50.18
FORCEMOT 3,940.05 2,658.00 1,282.05 48.23
IL&FSTRANS 113.2 80.05 33.15 41.41
VINATIORGA 595 421.2 173.8 41.26
DAAWAT 319.4 238.1 81.3 34.15
TRIGYN 106 81.4 24.6 30.22
ISFT 425 327.4 97.6 29.81
DECNGOLD (2) 46 35.5 21 29.58
AVANTI 492.9 383.5 109.4 28.53
KSCL 414.75 324.75 90 27.71
JCHAC 1,380.80 1,087.20 293.6 27.01
SSPDL 74 58.45 15.55 26.6
AMBIKCO* 1,031.60 816.25 215.35 26.38
ALICON 382 302.4 79.6 26.32
MANPASAND 556.85 448.5 108.35 24.16
MULTIBASE 283 228.3 54.7 23.96
GUJBOROS 87.6 70.85 16.75 23.64
LT 1,366.00 1,106.00 260 23.51
IVP 124 102.5 21.5 20.98
KWALITY 128.75 108.4 20.35 18.77
MFSL 558 476 82 17.23
JAGRAN 180.3 155.25 25.05 16.14
HANSUGAR 1.38 1.21 0.17 14.05
PINCON 65.15 57.2 7.95 13.9
SRIPIPES 270.5 239.2 31.3 13.09
FSL 38.6 35 3.6 10.29
ZYDUSWELL 869 800.45 68.55 8.56
NIRLON 187.55 177.4 10.15 5.72
KOTAKBANK 712.5 675.95 36.55 5.41
NCLIND 121 120 1 0.83
WATERBASE 84.45 84.25 0.2 0.24
BATLIBOI 23.7 24 -0.3 -1.25
BIOPAC 17.4 17.85 -0.45 -2.52
SANKHYAIN 36.7 37.9 -1.2 -3.17
MPSLTD 686.05 716 -29.95 -4.18
FCONSUMER 20.7 21.8 -1.1 -5.05
IONEXCHANG 294.2 311.6 -17.4 -5.58
UVBOARDS 20.65 21.9 -1.25 -5.71
SUBEX 9.63 10.3 -0.67 -6.5
REPCOHOME 560 606.15 -46.15 -7.61
TV18BRDCST 37.2 41.15 -3.95 -9.6
TIDEWATER 5,685.00 6,341.25 -656.25 -10.35
TARAJEWELS 38.8 43.65 -4.85 -11.11
LINCOPH 189.6 223.9 -34.3 -15.32
REVATHI 568.85 684.5 -115.65 -16.9
AUROPHARMA 671.1 814.75 -143.65 -17.63
RPOWER 42.05 51.05 -9 -17.63
ZENTEC 77.5 94.8 -17.3 -18.25
ARROWTEX 40.3 49.5 -9.2 -18.59
ROSSELLIND 94.55 116.8 -22.25 -19.05
SURANASOL 22.5 27.8 -5.3 -19.06
BUTTERFLY 190.95 241.1 -50.15 -20.8
COFFEEDAY 198.6 254.3 -55.7 -21.9
MOREPENLAB 21.6 28.2 -6.6 -23.4
MIC 15.49 20.45 -4.96 -24.25
SUNLOC 83.95 112.8 -28.85 -25.58
BINNY 74.95 101 -26.05 -25.79
ARROWGREEN 500 683.75 -183.75 -26.87
BIOFILCHEM 8.3 11.35 -3.05 -26.87
TANAA 44.85 62.45 -17.6 -28.18
KITEX 410 583.2 -173.2 -29.7
KAYA 725 1,041.75 -316.75 -30.41
HFCL 13.21 19.1 -5.89 -30.84
RTNPOWER 7.1 10.57 -3.47 -32.83
REIAGROLTD 0.44 0.66 -0.22 -33.33
ABFRL 141 212.2 -71.2 -33.55
NATCAPSUQ 85.5 133.2 -47.7 -35.81
LITL 3.81 6.25 -2.44 -39.04
MELSTAR 4.95 8.14 -3.19 -39.19
INOXWIND 187.5 317.7 -130.2 -40.98
ESTER 38.5 65.25 -26.75 -41
SYNCOM 6.29 10.72 -4.43 -41.32
JSHL 9.1 15.99 -6.89 -43.09
BHILSPIN 7.7 14.6 -6.9 -47.26
SKMEGGPROD 51.4 150 -98.6 -48.6
BHANDHOS 2.01 4.77 -2.76 -57.86
RADIXIND 75 205 -130 -63.41
SANJIVIN 16.25 57 -40.75 -71.49
RICOHQ 193.45 693 -499.55 -72.09
TRILOGIC 5 27.4 -22.4 -81.75

SEBI’s new Investment Adviser Guidelines consultation/amendment note of October 7,2016 Clause 4.6.3 a) proposes that “No person shall organize or offer any scheme/competition/game/ league on securities or related to securities market”….this is sadly a blanket ban ,yet understandable as was aimed at Trading Leagues that were a win win for those conducting them & in my view encouraged over trading .

TAP GAP never solicited business or monies to participate & in fact winner/s I picked from all entries ,received my blog hamper in appreciation.It was launched years ago in an endeavour to further Investor Education,Awareness & Protection through Fundamental Analysis & Valuation Basis .In my view it has been serving this fundamental purpose quite well indeed as evidenced from rising popularity.I intend to have a dialogue with SEBI on this and get their green signal to continue with this

Many Thanks to all of you,who have participated wholeheartedly and with great enthusiasm in TAP GAP Posers in the years before & I do hope I can continue this with SEBI’s concurrence

Well done Shobhit,the Brilliant Aroma of Lakshmi Enery & Foods Ltd’s Basmati Rice served you very well ,despite the controversy the company’s group companies are embroiled in ,in the NSEL Scam !  🙂  

read more

SEBI is right in regulating those offering stock recos on Social Media

SEBI is right in regulating those offering stock recos on Social Media & Emails & SMSs.

SEBI’s latest salvo to brokers is a 29 Page New Compliance Directive issued in September 2016 while to Investment Advisers (IA) is a 30 page Consultation Paper of October 7,2016 for  amendments to IA Regulations 2013 & inviting comments by November 4,2016

This  Consultation Paper plans to ,among several amendments & clarifications,disallow Investment Advisers offering stock recos  on Social Media unless authorised by SEBI.This has been instantly bashed on Social Media itself for this with hash tags like #SEBIkidadagiri & #SEBIGoback

Looks like SEBI is in a Catch 22 ~ Damned if it Did & Damned if it Don’t !

In my Considered View it’s better it Did

The major grouse by those against such strong regulation is impinging on Freedom of Speech & Expression in a Democracy & why is it ok to give advice on TV and not on Social Media & SEBI just wants to get the Fees….but believe me there is a lot of Nonsense going around & make no Nonsense of it !.SEBI is simply endeavouring to stamp it out as much as it can and Fees are incidental to this objective though this is an ammunition for the critics who say that  SEBI operates in creating a Fear Psychosis environment among Capital Market Intermediaries…..let me tell you this….for decades many such Intermediaries had a free untamed and often arrogant run ….often like wolves in pack that run together in nexus that has revealed one scam after another at the cost of retail investor suckers.In the early 1990s SEBI got it’s infancy teeth and as the years rolled by  it’s wisdom teeth….also sadly in the early 1990s lobbying got the Controller of Capital Issues (CCI) body to be abolished allowing Companies to flood the Primary Markets with IPOs at obscene Premiums  in Bullish Times when it was easy to sucker a greedy Investor base.Without Strong Investor Education & Protection base in Place the Investors were left to swim & drown in the Capital Markets Sea full of Sharks

Just penning a few thoughts on the Consultation Paper & may add more as I think them….

  • Wish SEBI had invited me to be on their Committee or even as an Advisor when Planning the Regulations….sure would have added serious & fair value without bias
  • Where there is Money there will be Stink!…and with Sensex nearing 30000 again with Market Cap at Rs 11230121 crs or US $ 1.7 Trillion and expected to climb into 2017 you can imagine the Stink!…call it ‘Nexus’ if you want !….The Stakes are getting Higher in the Game !
  • It has removed some exceptions & rightly got MF Distributors who offer advice too ,IFAs & those where advisory was incidental to business & those utilising automated tools for advisory (robot advisory) within the purview
  • It’s Luck more than Skills that often determines Success & Luck gets Luckier in Bullish Times .Like worms out of  woodwork,advisors proliferate giving specific trading and investment and even speculative equity and derivative calls without much fundamental depth or basis & its easy for small investors to get swayed and seduced and influenced in the lure to make some quick monies in stocks.They often entice with free trials(this is planned to go) & play the 50/50 probability game where those who lose drop out and those who win continue till they lose while referring more suckers
  • SEBI may ban equity advice on Social Media but how would they pursue those who flout this as its difficult to trace those who use Bulk SMS & hide behind Servers & IP walls
  • Thankfully SEBI has not included Training in Capital Markets Services requires Registration.However for incisive Training I have to fundamentally analyse & value listed companies & opine on the Value Vs Share Price.I have been doing this for over 30 years .Can this Opinion for Educating & not Commercial or Investment or Disinvestment Recommendation Purposes in my Training Sessions &  on my blog linked to Social Media too,construe as Advice and which requires SEBI Registration ?…this is the reason many good analysts have stopped Blogging all together.In my view this a great disservice to small retail investors.Where would they get reliable & good reasoning advice from ? from Brokers &  Experts on Bubble TV Stock Channels?.They have their own axe to grind & I daresay are not part of the Human Race in this context!…so far for years I have turned down sponsored & paid blogger invite meets & offers of  guest & paid blogs and advertisements from many finance institutions and individuals,many of them well known to avoid any blog bias and conflict of interest.
  • Does Registration with SEBI guarantee the quality of the Advice of registered advisors and research analysts?~any individual with just a lakh of networth and who can attain at least 60% in the NISM Certification examination can register to be one stating some unverifiable experience in this field
  • Let SEBI Be a Watchdog not a Bloodhound….we are taught this the first thing when studying to be a Chartered Accountant….it cannot be a mindset for “Guilty till proven Innocent”
  • Would this be protecting the vagabond listed companies rather than Investors as no one can air an opinion or view on the company’s doings unless they are registered with SEBI!?….read many of my blogposts on such errant companies & you shall know what I mean…In the past I have fundamentally warned with reasoning ,without charging any fee, on Satyam,Geodesic,Arshiya International,Cranes Software,Karuturi etc that went on do become duds  ….now to do so I may have to seek  SEBI Registration !
  • There is a growing argument that SEBI is just frying the small…Not True….it’s got Sahara too
  • Doctors,Lawyers ,Chartered Accountants all need to be qualified and registered to practice…so should Equity Advisors….self regulation does not work as they will protect their own….we saw this with ICAI in the Satyam Matter & even AMFI in many MF matters.Having said this,just like CA’s are licking their lips on incremental work on GST roll out,Lawyers specialising in SEBI Matters too will increase & flourish as additional litigation work should flow to them
  • SEBI Registration requires a minimum Academic or Professional Qualification~Why should Politicians who stand for Elections not be qualified too !?….ah perhaps that’s what leading to faking degrees!…to register to be an Investment Adviser,one has to pass the Investor Advisers Certification Exams by NISM.To be a designated as a Research Analyst one has to have passed the NISM Research Analyst examination.This is also a requisite for registering with SEBI as a Research Analyst.After 30 years I gave an exam again!~ In July 2016 scored over 90% ,attempting 98 of the 100 questions and getting 92 right! in the online NISM Research Analyst Certification Test…This allows me legally now to be designated as a Research Analyst but I have to seek SEBI Registration to practice as one for Consideration!
  • SEBI should regulate but not over regulate or else there is danger in killing the goose that lays the egg.It must remember that Investment in Equities are inherently risky in that there is no guarantee of any return.While it protects Investors through stringent advisory regulations ,it cannot lay the ground for litigation option for these investors against the advisors and research analysts every time when their specific advice leads to a loss.Stocks are traded in real time and can go up and down.That’s the essence of Equity markets in that there is a Buyer & Seller of a specific stock at a given time and price & Prices are a factor of Liquidity,Sentiment,Momentum,Valuation & Demand & Supply & Vested Interests.Advisors can be pitted against Advisors on specific selections & thus one has to come out on the other side of the road
  • Only 515 registered Investment Advisers registered with SEBI as on September 28, 2016 ? come on !
  • Is it best left to Institutionalise the Markets and force retail investors to route through MFs?
  • SEBI clarifies the distinction between Investment Advisor & Research Analyst and that many register as latter to avoid higher compliance in the former.It now will direct even Research Analysts to make no distinction between Class of Clients in timing and comprehensivness of the Research Report being communicated.They will also have to comply with Chapter III of the Investment Advisers Regulations 2013 in that such advice has to be suitable for the client’s financial position and investment objectives.This would mean engaging in KYC and not  merely offering subscriber research reports
  • Many perceive SEBI  stands for ‘Systematic Elimination of Brokers & Investors’ ! ~ such measures reinforce this perception
  • One of SEBI’s planned measures is to ban all schemes,games,leagues & competition relating to Securities.It does not specify whether any consideration is received or not for such.I understand this was specifically aimed at all those Trading Competitions & Leagues initiated by zero discount broking houses.This was a great legally allowed Scam in itself in my view as the Broking House made lots of Crores while seducing Traders to enroll with Performance Prizes in just a few Crores.One even has legendary Cricketer Kapil Dev as it’s Brand Ambassador ! He better watch out as there are now strict accountability for Celebrities endorsing Products & Services.The trap was they had to trade a minimum number of transactions in a week that too in only the Specified Group of Scrips or else they would not qualify for the Prizes on offer.In my fundamental concept view this went against the very tenets of  making Equity Investments for Wealth Creation over the Long Term as it encouraged Quickies in Trading leading to overtrading just so they achieve the minimum transactions per week.The Mathematics were great for the Broking House !.Imagine this with just 10000 (& there are more)registered traders for such schemes ~ Five Transactions a Week a Must & Rs 20 brokerage/transaction for 52 Weeks is a cool Rs 5.2 crs!~ that’s Rs 10 lakhs Brokerage a week at just Rs 100 per trader !~ Now imagine the Maths at 1 lakh participants!…a whopping Rs 52 crs at Rs One Cr a week….Now Imagine even more than One Lakh Traders participating !…It’s literally & figuratively a Steal for the Broking House
  • For a few years on this Blog I have been successfully offering a TAP GAP Poser to all blog readers without charging any fees and instead awarding the gauravblog hampers to answers I decide are winning ones.One such Poser is an annual one at the end of the year for any participant from the public who reads my blog to suggest up to three specific equity picks that in their view will perform the best in the coming year.I may have to stop this even though there is no consideration involved.Will take SEBI’s guidance on this as their Consultation paper has even defined what construes as ‘Consideration’

As far as SEBI’s September salvo to Brokers for more compliance,it’s been a mixed reaction from brokers….some feel compliance costs will rise on account of more manpower required and new software with high annual maintenance charges & in fact it will be difficult to comply and this would lead to selling out or consolidating with other brokers….dwindling broking fees and rising costs will sound the death knell to small brokers.Who then will serve Retail Investors,if at all they are not scared away again from markets?…while some Brokers feel it will cleanse the system of manipulative & dishonest brokers & even those who cannot cope with servicing clients under stricter compliance.“kachro saaf thayi jashey” is their assertion

read more

TAP GAP 2016 Performance of 101 Scrips in the Half Year at June 30

At Half Year June 30,2016,here’s the performance of all the 101 scrips recommended for TAP GAP 2016

Kaveri Seeds (Pushkar Singh Rana) that was awarded the Winner’s Hamper by me is up 37% & in the Top 10 % Gainers  but has a few ahead of it with even one near doubler ,Stylam Industries (well done Shailendra) !…Dave’s Subex is showing an upward momentum…My last blog was quite an elaborate one on it & evoked a response from him .Even the only Large Cap,Larsen & Toubro has gained 35% …Vishal’s Kisan & Livi’s MRSS too are rocking !

There are some huge disappointments too that have knocked off half the wealth and more with Ricoh bringing up the rear on major issues that rocked this Japanese MNC in India  !

The Sensex opened 2016 at 26101 & closed today @ 27000,up 3.4% in the year thus far

Please do point out if there are any errors on account of Investment Price adjustments for any Splits,Bonus,Rights etc

 

TAP GAP 2016
Scrip Name June 30 Price Inv. Price Overall Gain Overall Gain(%)
STYLAMIND 365.15 188.2 176.95 94.02
KISAN 35.9 21.3 14.6 68.54
MRSS 120.5 76.3 44.2 57.93
TRIGYN 122.7 81.4 41.3 50.74
CAPF 567.15 381.55 185.6 48.64
INDIANACRY 15.61 10.54 5.07 48.1
UFLEX 229.95 156.05 73.9 47.36
VIRINCHI 65.8 44.9 20.9 46.55
SSPDL 80.3 58.45 21.85 37.38
AVANTI 525.95 383.5 142.45 37.14
KSCL 445.2 324.75 120.45 37.09
DECNGOLD (2) 48.6 35.5 26.2 36.9
LAKSHMIO 23.35 17.1 6.25 36.55
KAMAHOLD 1821.75 1345.75 476 35.37
LT 1496.2 1106 390.2 35.28
FSL 46.4 35 11.4 32.57
VINATIORGA 544.35 421.2 123.15 29.24
APTECHT 79.4 61.5 17.9 29.11
HITACHIHOM 1393.65 1087.2 306.45 28.19
NIRLON 226.9 177.4 49.5 27.9
REPCOHOME 768.35 606.15 162.2 26.76
ISFT 412.55 327.4 85.15 26.01
JKPAPER 57.1 45.95 11.15 24.27
MANPASAND 553 448.5 104.5 23.3
GUJBOROS 86.75 70.85 15.9 22.44
UJAAS 25.8 21.3 4.5 21.13
MCX 1002.4 832.05 170.35 20.47
MULTIBASE 270.95 228.3 42.65 18.68
SUBEX 12.15 10.3 1.85 17.96
NCLIND 140.65 120 20.65 17.21
JAGRAN 180.45 155.25 25.2 16.23
UDAICEMENT 13.32 11.51 1.81 15.73
FORCEMOT 3044.75 2658 386.75 14.55
HANSUGAR 1.38 1.21 0.17 14.05
VAKRANGEE 188.4 165.5 22.9 13.84
REVATHI 775 684.5 90.5 13.22
KOTAKBANK 763.05 675.95 87.1 12.89
ODYSSEY 46.1 41.05 5.05 12.3
MFSL 533.5 476 57.5 12.08
IVP 114.15 102.5 11.65 11.37
WATERBASE 93.75 84.25 9.5 11.28
TIIL 235 212.8 22.2 10.43
TV18BRDCST 44.9 41.15 3.75 9.11
BATLIBOI 25.9 24 1.9 7.92
FCEL 23.5 21.8 1.7 7.8
RTNPOWER 11.36 10.57 0.79 7.47
SRIPIPES 256.9 239.2 17.7 7.4
ROSSELLIND 123.7 116.8 6.9 5.91
IONEXCHANG 328.9 311.6 17.3 5.55
DAAWAT 250.2 238.1 12.1 5.08
ALICON 313.75 302.4 11.35 3.75
BAMBINO 130.7 127 7.4 2.91
KWALITY 110.9 108.4 2.5 2.31
DONEAR 29.45 28.9 0.55 1.9
RPOWER 51.35 51.05 0.3 0.59
COFFEEDAY 254.8 254.3 0.5 0.2
ZYDUSWELL 799.7 800.45 -0.75 -0.09
MPSLTD 714 716 -2 -0.28
AMBIKCO 812.2 816.25 -4.05 -0.5
HERITGFOOD 516 526.5 -10.5 -1.99
BINNY 98.15 101 -2.85 -2.82
BIOPAC 17.25 17.85 -0.6 -3.36
HFCL 18.25 19.1 -0.85 -4.45
IL&FSTRANS 73.9 80.05 -6.15 -7.68
TANAA 57.05 62.45 -5.4 -8.65
AUROPHARMA 743.4 814.75 -71.35 -8.76
KITEX 527.2 583.2 -56 -9.6
TARAJEWELS 39.3 43.65 -4.35 -9.97
ARROWTEX 44.5 49.5 -5 -10.1
SURANASOL 24.65 27.8 -3.15 -11.33
TIDEWATER 5597.4 6341.25 -743.85 -11.73
ZENTEC 83.2 94.8 -11.6 -12.24
SUNLOC 98.6 112.8 -14.2 -12.59
BHANDHOS 4.1 4.77 -0.67 -14.05
MOREPENLAB 24.2 28.2 -4 -14.18
KAYA 877 1041.75 -164.75 -15.81
BIOFILCHEM 9.4 11.35 -1.95 -17.18
ESTER 53.9 65.25 -11.35 -17.39
BHILSPIN 11.5 14.6 -3.1 -21.23
SYNCOM 8.4 10.72 -2.32 -21.64
ASALCBR 71.15 91.65 -20.5 -22.37
LITL 4.8 6.25 -1.45 -23.2
MIC 15.45 20.45 -5 -24.45
INOXWIND 238.05 317.7 -79.65 -25.07
NATCAPSUQ 99 133.2 -34.2 -25.68
ARROWGREEN 507.9 683.75 -175.85 -25.72
CGCL 129 183 -54 -29.51
BUTTERFLY 165.5 241.1 -75.6 -31.36
MELSTAR 5.56 8.14 -2.58 -31.7
ABFRL 142.35 212.2 -69.85 -32.92
UVBOARDS 14.65 21.9 -7.25 -33.11
PINCON 76.5 114.4 -37.9 -33.13
LINCOPH 149.6 223.9 -74.3 -33.18
JSHL 10.2 15.99 -5.79 -36.21
RADIXIND 122 205 -83 -40.49
REIAGROLTD 0.39 0.66 -0.27 -40.91
SANKHYAIN 19.8 37.9 -18.1 -47.76
SANJIVIN 28.7 57 -28.3 -49.65
TRILOGIC 13.25 27.4 -14.15 -51.64
SKMEGGPROD 66.15 150 -83.85 -55.9
RICOHQ 208.55 693 -484.45 -69.91

 

Finally! ~ TAP GAP gauravblog Winner Hampers enroute to Bhanu Kiran Polanki & Pushkar Singh Rana

Finally! ~ TAP GAP Winner Hampers enroute this evening to Bhanu Kiran Polanki in Hyderabad & Pushkar Singh Rana in Dehradhun

Will not reveal what’s in these right now …Let them be surprised….what I will reveal is they weigh over 7 kgs each and are loaded with @ 20 Brands & 35 items !~ @ twice more than last year ! ( perhaps a way of apologising for the delay in announcing 2016 winner and therefore the delay in despatch ~ come on guys there were 100+ entries to study !)

Bhanu Kiran Polanki won retro for 2015  for recommending Vidhi Dyestuff beginning 2015 at Rs 17 and which rocketed a brilliant 347% to Rs 76.65  at December year end 2015 and even today holds at Rs 70 levels…It zoomed higher than Intellect Design which too did brilliantly in 2015 & which I had selected beginning 2015 as the TAP GAP 2015 Winner…Spicejet & Intrasoft (late entry beyond deadline) which too did well in 2015  had missed out

Pushkar Singh Rana wins it for recommending Kaveri Seeds at Rs 325 beginning of 2016.It’s my TAP GAP choice from a record of over 100 Entries

Just as Bhanu Kiran Polanki won retro for 2015 even at 2016 Year end we will see another hamper being awarded to the participant whose entry from the over 100 entries recommended  for 2016 has gained the highest as long as it’s not Kaveri Seeds!

It’s not been a Happy Sensex 2016 thus far with Sensex beginning the year at 26100 levels and dropping 12% to 23000 levels before recovering.Today it’s battling to stay over 24600….yet down 5.75% from 2016 opening…and then recovered to gain 25000 again…needs another 4.2 % to regain 2016 opening levels

Hope you guys Bhanu & Pushkar enjoy the Hamper !

Cheers !

Update on Monday,April 18,2016

Both Bhanu & Pushkar have expressed delight…am truly happy their families and they are enjoying the contents as below…maybe we should have another TAP GAP Contest mid year 2016  with more winners & more hampers !…Cheers ! 😆

Pushkar Singh Rana Hamper Contents

 

Congrats TAP GAP 2016 Winner Pushkar for Kaveri Seed @ Rs 325 !

Congrats TAP GAP 2016 Winner Pushkar for Kaveri Seeds @ Rs 325 !….In less than 2 months it’s already up to Rs 390 with promise of recovering lost ground

Phew ! it took me quite some time to go through 101 Companies as below that were submitted as below for TAP GAP 2016

Thanks to all of  you who send in 101 Company entries by January 15,2016 & for being patient till I declared  Pushkar as the winner today ! 

My single criteria was to assess that which company had fundamental strength to give a 100% return in a tough 2016 ….I also considered if there are vested interests in the scrips who control market trades & I have opted not to go for them….You guys have given me quite a few of these 🙂

I had finally filtered it to selecting from these Five

  1. Ambika Cotton
  2. Avanti Feeds
  3. Capital First
  4.  Nirlon
  5. Kaveri Seed
I have decided that one of Pushkar’s three Choices,Kaveri Seed deserves this years TAP GAP 2016 gauravblog hamper It’s already up 20% inside two months and we have 10 months to go in 2016 & I’m quite sure that many from the remaining  100 entries too will outperform & as always I promise to also reward the gauravblog hamper to  the one whose entry gains the highest % in 2016 as at closing December 31, 2016….unless it’s Pushkar again scoring on one of  his other two entries,Larsen & Toubro or Firstsource Solutions !  🙂 Kaveri Seed is a Debt Free  & Cash Rich ( Rs 345 crs at December 31,2015) dividend paying company  which has had a tough drop last year .In fact a year ago in March 2015 it was a strong Rs 1077 (52 Week High) and since then dropped to Rs 300 in January this year on the back of two consecutive poor Monsoon that lowered farm income & the Company had to write off more no cotton seed inventory ,largely maize.Q 2 FY 15 saw a bottomline loss of Rs 48 crs on account of this.Also Royalty Dispute with Monsanto remains an unresolved issue for the Industry A good Monsoon in 2016 will quickly push this Company back into Orbit….it already has got a push with Government Panel proposing a national uniform price for Bt Cotton for 2016 believed to be Rs 800 per 450 gms Bt Cotton packet,incl of trait or license fees of Rs 49.These fees are 74% less than prevailing.It is awaiting acceptance by  the Ministry of Agriculture.This should also help remove Royalty overhang.FY 15 Royalty was Rs 159 crs on Sales of Rs 1161 crs.In FY 16 for the nine months the Company has provided just Rs 37.53 crs as directed by State Governments while the actual liability as per agreement with Service Provide Monsanto is Rs 102.51 crs creating a shortfall of Rs 64.55 crs.The matter is pending in Court between National Seed Association of India & Monsanto which will first decide if Government of India indeed has a right to intervene in fixing MSP & Trait Value…If Government wins then Kaveri Seed is also entitled to get a refund of Rs 200 crs from Monsanto for excess Royalty paid till 2015.If  Monsanto triumps then Kaveri needs to pay out as of date just Rs 65 crs underprovided.It is Debt Free & has Cash Reserves of @ Rs 345 crs as on December 31,2015 ….but whoever wins it will yet be a win win for the Industry & Kaveri as there will be clarity on Pricing & Royalty….Problem is that Monsanto through it’s Indian JV with  Maharashtra based Mahyco,Mahyco Monsanto Biotech has threatened to hold back newer technologies & also re-evaluate it’s presence in India if the Government does not roll back the Plan to cut Bt Cotton Trait Value by 70%….In my view India is too big a Market for Monsanto to ignore & there will be a resolution to this issue    Another Development is a Forensic Audit ordered by SEBI in December 2015 to be conducted by CA Firm  Sarath & Associates based in Hyderabad Company has got a National Footprint with  Brand Loyalty in a high barrier industry   where it takes strong investment in R & D for seeds and a lead time of 7 to 8 years to commercial production .Q 1 April to June Quarter  in any FY is always the crucial quarter as Farmers buy seeds to sow just before Monsoon sets in.Q 1 FY 15 saw Sales of Rs 664 crs down from Rs 827 crs in Q 1 FY 14 & even lower than the Rs 736 crs in Q 1 in FY 13.FY 15 saw 8.4 m packets sold while FY 16 is expected to close under 6 m.FY 17 should see a 20% to 25% climb back. Market Cap is Rs 1158 crs at Rs 390 =>  @ One Year Sales…..Book at 31/12/2015 was @ Rs 133 on a Networth of @ Rs 920 crs Of course there is always the global resentment for increasing use of hybrid seed technology,especially Bt Cotton  & for the Monopoly of Monsanto in this and their dictating terms ….that is for another debate though Here is the List of all 101 Entries and how they have performed till date from your recommended price or  January 15,2016 closing taken if lower
Sr No. Scrip Name CMP (Rs) Inv. Price (Rs) % Change
1 Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd 150.4 212.2 -29
2 Alicon Castalloy Limited 267.1 302.4 -12
3 Ambika Cotton Mills Ltd 838.25 816.25 3
4 Aptech Ltd 56.8 61.5 -8
5 Arrow Coated Products Ltd 484 683.75 -29
6 Arrow Textiles Ltd 37.5 49.5 -24
7 Associated Alcohols and Breweries Ltd 176.3 183.3 -4
8 Aurobindo Pharma Ltd 701.5 814.75 -14
9 Avanti Feeds Ltd 402.5 383.5 5
10 Bambino Agro Industries Ltd (2) 97.95 127 -23
11 Batliboi Ltd 20.5 24 -15
12 Bhandari Hosiery Exports Ltd* 5.42 4.77 14
13 Bhilwara Spinners Ltd 14.25 14.6 -2
14 Binny Ltd 97 101 -4
15 Biofil Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals Ltd 6.42 11.35 -43
16 Biopac India Corporation Ltd 13.65 17.85 -24
17 Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances Ltd 186.3 241.1 -23
18 Capital First Ltd 375.85 381.55 -1
19 Capri Global Capital Limited 143 183 -22
20 Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd 235.1 254.3 -8
21 LT FOODS LTD 200 238.1 -16
22 Deccan Gold Mines Ltd 35.15 35.5 -1
23 Donear Industries Ltd 24.9 28.9 -14
24 Ester Industries Ltd 45.35 65.25 -30
25 Future Consumer Enterprise Limited 21.4 21.8 -2
26 Force Motors Ltd 2628 2,658.00 -1
27 First Source Solutions Ltd 34.45 35 -2
28 Gujarat Borosil Ltd 76.8 70.85 8
29 Shree Hanuman Sugar & Industries Ltd 1.11 1.21 -8
30 Heritage Foods Limited 527 526.5
31 Himachal Futuristic Communications Ltd 17.7 19.1 -7
32 Hitachi Home and Life Solutions (India) Ltd 1165 1,087.20 7
33 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd 73.45 80.05 -8
34 Indian Acrylics Ltd 11.76 10.54 12
35 Inox Wind Ltd 292.6 317.7 -8
36 Ion Exchange India Ltd 283 377.7 -25
37 Intrasoft Technologies Ltd 322.1 327.4 -2
38 IVP 88 102.5 -14
39 Jagran Prakashan Ltd 155.65 155.25 0
40 JK Paper Ltd 42.95 45.95 -7
41 JLA Infraville Shoppers Ltd 11.58 15.99 -28
42 Kama Holdings 1250 1,345.75 -7
43 Kaya Ltd 866 1,041.75 -17
44 Kisan Mouldings Ltd 19.45 21.3 -9
45 Kitex Garments Ltd 412.7 583.2 -29
46 Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd 667.35 675.95 -1
47 Kaveri Seed Company Ltd 390.15 324.75 20
48 Kwality Ltd 102.45 108.4 -5
49 Lakshmi Overseas Industries Ltd 15 17.1 -12
50 Lincoln Pharmaceuticals Lyd 163.5 223.9 -27
51 Lanco Infratech Ltd 5.44 6.25 -13
52 Larsen and Toubro Ltd 1193.75 1,106.00 8
53 Manpasand Beverages Ltd 436 448.5 -3
54 Max Financial Services Ltd 320.5 476 -33
55 MCX Ltd 840.05 832.05 1
56 Melstar Information Technologies Ltd 6.27 8.14 -23
57 MIC Electronics Ltd 19.65 20.45 -4
58 Morepen Laboratories Ltd 27.75 28.2 -2
59 MPS Ltd 665 716 -7
60 Majestic Research Services and Solutions Ltd 65.5 76.3 -14
61 Multibase India Ltd 203 228.3 -11
62 Natural Capsules Ltd 92 133.2 -31
63 NCL Industries Ltd 96.2 120 -20
64 Nirlon Ltd 192 177.4 8
65 Odyssey Technologies Ltd 29.5 41.05 -28
66 Pincon Spirit Ltd 127.8 114.4 12
67 Radix Industries (India) Ltd 152 205 -26
68 Rei Agro Ltd 0.53 0.66 -20
69 Repco Home Finance Ltd 587.9 606.15 -3
70 Revathi Equipment Ltd 560 684.5 -18
71 Ricoh India Ltd 598.25 693 -14
72 Rossell India Ltd 95 116.8 -19
73 Reliance Power Ltd 46.7 51.05 -9
74 Rattan India Power Ltd 10.35 10.57 -2
75 Sanjivani Paranteral Ltd 33 57 -42
76 Sankhya Infotech Ltd 26.25 37.9 -31
77 SKM Egg Products Ltd 113.85 150 -24
78 Srikalahasthi Pipes Limited 214.1 239.2 -10
79 SSPDL Ltd 48.55 58.45 -17
80 Stylam Industries Ltd 169.8 188.2 -10
81 Subex Ltd 9.38 10.3 -9
82 Sunil Healthcare Ltd 96.3 112.8 -15
83 Surana Solar Ltd 24 27.8 -14
84 Syncom Healthcare Ltd 6.25 10.72 -42
85 Taneja Aerospace & Aviation Ltd 56.8 62.45 -9
86 Tara Jewels Ltd 46.3 43.65 6
87 Tide Water Oil (India) Ltd 25099 25,365 -1
88 Technocraft Industries (India) Ltd 199 212.8 -6
89 Trigyn Technologies Ltd 63 81.4 -23
90 Trilogic Digital Media Ltd 16.75 27.4 -39
91 TV18 Broadcast Ltd 38.8 41.15 -6
92 Udaipur Cement Works Ltd 9.86 11.51 -14
93 Uflex Ltd 149.4 156.05 -4
94 Ujaas Energy Ltd 23.95 21.3 12
95 UV Boards Ltd 11.46 21.9 -48
96 Vakranjee 224.75 165.5 36
97 Vinati Organis 394.7 421.2 -6
98 Virinchi Ltd 36.75 44.9 -18
99 Waterbase Ltd 77.65 84.25 -8
100 Zen Technologies 70.1 94.8 -26
101 Zydus Wellness Ltd 700.75 800.45 -12
*Adjusted for stock split

Once again  ~ Well Done Pushkar  for Kaveri Seed ! ~ I’ve gone with this !

 Your gauravblog hamper will soon be on it’s way to you

Cheers !

Disclaimer : Don’t have any direct or indirect interest or holding in Kaveri Seed as of date 

3 out of 4 from the 100 Entries in the Red inside a month in TAP GAP 2016

Phew ! Have gone through all 100 Entries as below for the TAP GAP end 2015 Contest as to  which  Company will be the Biggest Share Price Gainer in 2016

Had taken the lower of price recommended by participant & closing as on January 15,2016 on BSE (except SKM Egg’s NSE closing)

As of last evening & inside a month here is Price Trend of all the Entries

Look at the Price Trends inside the last month…nearly 3 in 4 are in the Red…quite a few over 15% down …Just Two, Ujaas & Vakrangee are up 20% + and a few more over 10%

The Volatility is quite unnerving & just be cautious you don’t get trapped in Scrips that are manipulated around…quite a few ,in my view,appear on the list below… the swings may take you to highs only to topple you

Today the Sensex is down @ 250 points and trying to keep it’s head above 24000

Now you know why it’s taking long to fundamentally  identify those with real winning potential that can sustain on the bourses in 2016 and beyond…will announce my choice shortly…review is on

 

Scrip Name CMP Inv. Price Overall Gain/Loss Overall Gain/Loss (%)
ABFRL 176 212.2 -36.2 -17.06
ALICON 296 302.4 -6.4 -2.12
AMBIKCO 800 816.25 -16.25 -1.99
APTECHT 61.1 61.5 -0.4 -0.65
ARCPR 598 683.75 -85.75 -12.54
ARROWTEX 38.9 49.5 -10.6 -21.41
ASALCBR 183.3 183.3 0 0
AUROPHARMA 746.5 814.75 -68.25 -8.38
AVANTI 420 383.5 36.5 9.52
BAMBINO (2) 119 127 -16 -6.3
BATLIBOI 22.45 24 -1.55 -6.46
BHANDHOS 41.7 47.65 -5.95 -12.49
BHILSPIN 15 14.6 0.4 2.74
BINNY 91 101 -10 -9.9
BIOFILCHEM 8.48 11.35 -2.87 -25.29
BIOPAC 16.85 17.85 -1 -5.6
BUTTERFLY 249.1 241.1 8 3.32
CAPF 400.5 381.55 18.95 4.97
CGCL 168.1 183 -14.9 -8.14
COFFEEDAY 245.4 254.3 -8.9 -3.5
DAAWAT 220.8 238.1 -17.3 -7.27
DECNGOLD (2) 35.05 35.5 -0.9 -1.27
DONEAR 28.65 28.9 -0.25 -0.87
ESTER 58.8 65.25 -6.45 -9.89
FCEL 22 21.8 0.2 0.92
FORCEMOT 2,640.00 2,658.00 -18 -0.68
FSL 35 35 0 0
GUJBOROS 72.25 70.85 1.4 1.98
HANSUGAR 1.15 1.21 -0.06 -4.96
HERITGFOOD 526.6 526.5 0.1 0.02
HFCL 18.55 19.1 -0.55 -2.88
HITACHIHOM 1,189.55 1,087.20 102.35 9.41
IL&FSTRANS 75.25 80.05 -4.8 -6
INDIANACRY 11.62 10.54 1.08 10.25
INOXWIND 273.8 317.7 -43.9 -13.82
ISFT 321 327.4 -6.4 -1.95
IVP 101 102.5 -1.5 -1.46
JAGRAN 159 155.25 3.75 2.42
JKPAPER 46.8 45.95 0.85 1.85
JSHL 12.99 15.99 -3 -18.76
KAMAHOLD 1,340.00 1,345.75 -5.75 -0.43
KAYA 963 1,041.75 -78.75 -7.56
KISAN 20.5 21.3 -0.8 -3.76
KITEX 434.5 583.2 -148.7 -25.5
KOTAKBANK 673.15 675.95 -2.8 -0.41
KSCL 359.3 324.75 34.55 10.64
KWALITY 100.1 108.4 -8.3 -7.66
LAKSHMIO 17.05 17.1 -0.05 -0.29
LINCOPH 176.5 223.9 -47.4 -21.17
LITL 6.17 6.25 -0.08 -1.28
LT 1,130.25 1,106.00 24.25 2.19
MANPASAND 454 448.5 5.5 1.23
MAX 367 476 -109 -22.9
MCX 816 832.05 -16.05 -1.93
MELSTAR 7.41 8.14 -0.73 -8.97
MIC 22.6 20.45 2.15 10.51
MOREPENLAB 31.2 28.2 3 10.64
MPSLTD 680 716 -36 -5.03
MRSS 67.3 76.3 -9 -11.8
MULTIBASE 220.4 228.3 -7.9 -3.46
NATCAPSUQ 99.3 133.2 -33.9 -25.45
NCLIND 100.9 120 -19.1 -15.92
NIRLON 173 177.4 -4.4 -2.48
ODYSSEY 34.15 41.05 -6.9 -16.81
PINCON 120 114.4 5.6 4.9
RADIXIND 201 205 -4 -1.95
REIAGROLTD 0.6 0.66 -0.06 -9.09
REPCOHOME 634.45 606.15 28.3 4.67
REVATHI 625 684.5 -59.5 -8.69
RICOHQ 570.5 693 -122.5 -17.68
ROSSELLIND 113.5 116.8 -3.3 -2.83
RPOWER 46.75 51.05 -4.3 -8.42
RTNPOWER 10.24 10.57 -0.33 -3.12
SANJIVIN 49.3 57 -7.7 -13.51
SANKHYAIN 31.5 37.9 -6.4 -16.89
SKMEGGPROD 121.55 150 -28.45 -18.97
SRIPIPES 234.4 239.2 -4.8 -2.01
SSPDL 52 58.45 -6.45 -11.04
STYLAMIND 204.2 188.2 16 8.5
SUBEX 9.88 10.3 -0.42 -4.08
SUNLOC 119.3 112.8 6.5 5.76
SURANASOL 29.5 27.8 1.7 6.12
SYNCOM 8.68 10.72 -2.04 -19.03
TANAA 59.45 62.45 -3 -4.8
TARAJEWELS 44.8 43.65 1.15 2.63
TIDEWATER 23,282.00 25,365.00 -2,083.00 -8.21
TIIL 219 212.8 6.2 2.91
TRIGYN 71 81.4 -10.4 -12.78
TRILOGIC 26.5 27.4 -0.9 -3.28
TV18BRDCST 39.9 41.15 -1.25 -3.04
UDAICEMENT 10.56 11.51 -0.95 -8.25
UFLEX 161.85 156.05 5.8 3.72
UJAAS 25.6 21.3 4.3 20.19
UVBOARDS 15.1 21.9 -6.8 -31.05
VAKRANGEE 204.15 165.5 38.65 23.35
VINATIORGA 384.65 421.2 -36.55 -8.68
VIRNICHIQ 41.15 44.9 -3.75 -8.35
WATERBASE 77.6 84.25 -6.65 -7.89
ZENTEC 80.4 94.8 -14.4 -15.19
ZYDUSWELL 729.8 800.45 -70.65 -8.83