Sat 24 Aug 2019 Mumbai Equity Workshop on Stripping Annual Reports ~ Bullshit or Badass

 🙂 Are you yet Alive in these Markets !?  😯 Wish to remain so ?

Then after June 22,2019 , here’s another great  Rs 9000 opportunity to attend my Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop  ~ 😆 Please don’t ask for any discount because I can’t say No !

Interpretation of Financial Statements
Indian Equity ~ (St)Ripping Annual Reports ~ Bullshit or Badass
Full Saturday, August 24, 2019

Limited Seats so do book yours right away here => www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

No prior Financial or fundamental knowledge is required. Just come with an Open Mind dressed with Common sense to realise how uncommon it really is ! At the time of Registration or even later you can even request for a Specific Company you wish who’s Annual Report be (st)ripped at the Workshop 

Here’s a warm testimonial from a participant who flew in from Accra,Ghana for the June 22,2019 workshop on Sensex at 40000 ~ Treasure & Traps where we covered Risk Profiling & Returns ,Scenarios & Scrips,Macros & Mistakes,Treasures & Traps ~ assessing many on Value Vs Price ~ 😀 Yes, the workshop did go on till much later than scheduled close,as is usual….there was so much fun interaction,again as is usual

” It was a privilege to attend your workshop.I gained a lot of wisdom & knowledge.Many thanks & God Bless ” 

& another from a repeat participant ” Many many thanks Gaurav.It was really wonderful.Really appreciate all the efforts and the sharing of your knowledge.It was outstanding ” 

There’s a comprehensive Workshop Template on the Registration link that details out why you should attend & what benefits you can expect to derive

Here are a few extracts from this  Workshop Template that should convince you to be there on Saturday,August 24,2019

It’s been a market meltdown of frightening proportion across the Board, except in a few ,visibly an (un)lucky 13 that constitute high weightage in the Sensex & Nifty that has kept these Indices alive at 38000 & 11000 yet

The ‘Fun’ in  ‘Fun’damental Stock Stories too has vanished with Equity Portfolios showing strong depression in almost all stock selections across sectors & Market Cap segments  

Company Annual Report ~ Can we yet revere it as the Bible or Bhagvad Gita or Quran for Company Performance !?

Never judge a Book by it’s Cover.We’ve seen the Annual Report sabotaged, painted & tainted by sub standard supervision , monitoring & assessment ,intentional or otherwise, by Banks & other Lending Institutions, Statutory & Internal Auditors , Regulators & Credit Rating Agencies. read more

Shareholder Shenanigans ~ Hey Mister Aster whose Healthcare are you after !

Shareholder Shenanigans ~ Hey Mister Aster whose Healthcare are you after !

Invariably the Construction of  the Pre IPO Equity Capital of a Company  reveals the Fairness & Character & Mindset of Promoters & other Equity Stakeholders in it & extent of any obscene premium seduction if any 

What can we infer from a Company  :

  • that issues further shares end December 2011 at Rs 10,000 to an existing Private Equity (PE) Stakeholder Player 1   from 2008 which takes their total Equity Investment in the Company to just over Rs 22 crs & just 20 days later in January 2012 ,this PE Player 1 sells just @ 30.8% of  it’s Equity stake for Rs 110 crs ! to a new incoming PE Equity Player 2 at Rs 1,58,918 per share ~that’s 1500% & 15 times over latest unit share cost of Rs 10000 ! Thus it recovers 4 times it’s aggregate Investment in literally no time  & yet continues to hold a good stake in the Company which it has just sold for Rs 120 to get a huge Rs 554 crs    
  • that issues two liberal back to back Bonus issues of 1000:1  in 2012 & 2: 1 in 2013 from the Share Premium paid by incoming PE Player 2 in 2012 when it invested Rs 504 crs in the Company through Rs 394 crs new issue by the company & Rs 110 crs purchase from PE Player 1 as stated above  
  • where Promoters transfer shares in December 2017 at just Rs 22.14 per share just two months before February 2018 IPO at Rs 190 to PE Player 2 referring to a costing methodology of a Shareholder Purchase Agreement (SPA) of May 2014 when this PE Player 2 had invested further in May 2014 itself directly in a fresh issue by the Company at Rs 102.85 & on same day as per same SPA even picked up shares from Promoters at Rs 189.46.Even CCCP’s issued were converted at Rs 111.65 in November 2017,three months before the Rs 190 IPO.An SPA that spells out a costing method that works out to a much lower throwaway price of just Rs 22.14 per share three & a half years down the road in December 2017 will indeed raise an eyebrow.A lower price would imply growth parameters have not resulted as envisaged.Why  price the IPO at Rs 190 ? Should have been at Rs 22,I daresay !        

If Memory serves me right,the Financial Year 2011-12 was perhaps the last year before Income Tax & Company Act restrictions came into force on the issue of Shares at unjustified & obscene premiums….nevertheless

Such Modus Operandi was quite prevalent in Companies to infuse huge funds into Equity at bizarre premiums not in sync with Valuation which would facilitate insignificant Equity Dilution which otherwise would have impacted Promoter & Other existing  Shareholders Stakes.This invariably was followed up with bizarre Bonus Issues which while maintaining the Equity Stakes of all served largely to considerably lower per share holding cost of Shareholders that had infused such Equity Capital at obscene Premiums….daresay some indulged in this even for laundering or accepting white bribes

Two recent events drew me to  checking out Aster DM Healthcare @ Rs 127

1~ First when observed huge Market Deals being executed end of last month on June 26 & 27, 2019 at Rs 120 with Private Equity Shareholder True North Fund III A  ( earlier called India Value Fund (IVF) ) offloading it’s full 9.15% stake of 4.62 cr shares to a host of Big names that included Fidelity,Tata AIG Insurance A/c Wholelife Midcap Equity,HDFC Small Cap Fund,Ontario Pension & Steinberg

2 ~Was not impressed at this first quick look on performance & prospects & was letting go when a Stock Channel carried an interview of it’s Promoter & ED & Chairperson Mr Azad Moopen on July 12,2019.

Intrigued me to have a re-look as Mr Moopen stated verbatim these two threads  :

  • “we think  that this is a very low price for this stock “ ~ on Share Price of @ Rs 121/122 as on July 12,2019 & on bulk deal price of Rs 120 end June 2019 when PE Player True North Fund III exited ~ is not there some restriction on Company promoters and management making such views public on Share Price ?
  • “extremely useful in the initial phase” ” significant value addition to the company”  ” True North has been a great strength ” ” no way they could hold on beyond 9 to 10 years” ~ on Private Equity Player, True North Fund III A who had initiated a stake in 2008 in Aster & who exited last month in June 2019

I looked at the IPO Prospectus that announced Aster DM Healthcare’s February 2018  IPO eighteen months ago at Rs 190,a pricing that’s 33% higher than today’s Rs 127

While I appreciate Mr Moopen’s honourable healthcare venture in the last three decades what caught my attention,as it usually does,was the not so honourable Construction of the pre IPO Equity Capital

Here are some interesting extracts & derived data  on the constructions of holdings of PE Player 1  True North &  PE Player 2 Olympus Capital Asia Investments in Aster DM Healthcare Limited.The Post IPO Equity Issue stands at Rs 505.23 crs with  50,52,27,345 shares of FV Rs 10 . read more

Equity ~Life Changers or Life Maimers ?

Equity ~Life Changers or Life Maimers ?

This Thought was inspired by a Whatsapp Forward received this morning titled Power of Equity .It listed many Life Changing Wealth Creators that grew many fold from just Rs 10000 invested in each  & carried a concluding Message in Capitals ” INVEST WISELY WITH LOTS OF PATIENCE “

This was the List & I’m assuming the Years & CAGR Maths is correct with Dividends not being considered :

  1. Eicher Motors-1992 => Rs 80 lakhs
  2. Asian Paints-1986 => Rs 90 lakhs
  3. HDFC -1990 => Rs One Crore
  4. Brittania – 1985 => Rs 1.06 crs
  5. MRF – 1985 => Rs 1.10 crs
  6. BOSCH -1985 => Rs 1.20 crs
  7. Amara Raja -1991 => Rs 1.25 crs
  8. Shree Cement -1990 => Rs 2.90 crs
  9. Infosys – 1993 => Rs 3 crs
  10. Dr Reddys -1986 => Rs 10 crs
  11. WIPRO -1981 => Rs 400 crs

Cannot Argue with this Message for I’ve seen three of my Scrips,in even relatively quick time inside five years of investment too becoming over 100 Baggers ~Matrix Labs( early Millenium & now delisted as sold to Mylan),Mercator(early Millenium) & WIPRO ( from 1997 to  early 2001)

It is rare for most investors to live the Conviction & Temperament to hold for long & ride the Huge Life Changing Gains.Imagine if more than Rs 10000 had been invested in each of the above,especially WIPRO!

However my Thought is what about Wrong Convictions on the High Fliers that became Wealth Destroyers &  Life Maimers !

Here are a few of them ,most yet listed & struggling to revive & how much worth would your Rs 10000 invested in each of them be now ….most are Horror Stories of the past decade or a little more…sure you can contribute more…My Horror Stories  have been the Damania Group’s Damania Capital Markets to mention one.Bad Judgement Call that Cost!It was compulsory delisted in July 2004.

~Suzlon -2005=>Rs 842  &  2008=>Rs 348 ! => 92% to 97% wiped out after considering 10:2 Split in January 2008 when it reached an all time high of Rs 2300 before split.Current Price Rs 16.Promoter Tulsi Tanti is yet on board though Dilip Shanghvi of Sun Pharma Group has acquired a major stake in it @ Rs 18 in February 2015.Mandatory Open Offer at Rs 18 to other Shareholders in January 2016 met with no success.The Share Price had raced to Rs 30 from where it has halved & is below the Open Offer & Stake Price of Rs 18.Shareholders hold out Hope of Revival back to Glory Days in the years ahead under Dilip Shanghavi.So far it’s been a muted share price trading range in recent months.

~Unitech-2006 => Rs 505 => 95% wiped out after adjusting for 12:1 Bonus & 10:2 Split in June 2006 & 1:1 Bonus in Aug 2007.Reached a high of Rs 14800 in 2006 before Bonus & split .Current Price under Rs 6

~Kingfisher Airlines-2006/7 => 0 ! => 100% wiped out & scrip suspended for trading from 2012/2013 & restricted trading from June 2015 ~ reached a High of Rs 335 in 2007 read more

Squirrels are back in May !

What a Lovely Saturday Morning! The Squirrels are back in May !….they had vanished in April and early May….learnt it was their mating season….first the sparrow awaits it’s turn just below the water pot….then the parrot does as squirrels feast and scamper around….only to finally realise that the squirrel does not mind sharing….all are early breakfast eaters before the pigeons and crows raid….it’s fascinating how the whole day they all play tug of wars and musical chairs….often in greater numbers…like twenty sparrows feasting and twittering and chirping !….Heavenly ! Blessed!

Sparrow awaits it's turn under a water pot
Parrot awaits it's turn as the squirrels feast and scamper around
Parrot realises the squirrel does not mind sharing

:-) Annual Reports Season of Half Truths arriving

😀 Annual Reports Season of Half Truths arriving

Half Truths & Bloated Exaggerations

How Glibly Stock Channels recommend past Wealth Destroyers

😳  One should never hold Emotions in Stock Markets !

🙁  Now state this to those whose wealth has been destroyed by Investing in some Listed Companies of  especially Big Business Houses !

👿  Now Relate this in context of  many ‘Experts’ on Stock Channels continuing to recommend ad nauseam such past Wealth Destroyers and Other Companies of the connected Business House

🙄  Surely you don’t want me to enlighten you with examples of such ‘Experts’ and such ‘Companies’ of such ‘Business Houses’ !?

😐 We all Have Emotions and the More Principled have More !