Congrats TAP GAP 2016 Winner Pushkar for Kaveri Seed @ Rs 325 !

Congrats TAP GAP 2016 Winner Pushkar for Kaveri Seeds @ Rs 325 !….In less than 2 months it’s already up to Rs 390 with promise of recovering lost ground

Phew ! it took me quite some time to go through 101 Companies as below that were submitted as below for TAP GAP 2016

Thanks to all of  you who send in 101 Company entries by January 15,2016 & for being patient till I declared  Pushkar as the winner today ! 

My single criteria was to assess that which company had fundamental strength to give a 100% return in a tough 2016 ….I also considered if there are vested interests in the scrips who control market trades & I have opted not to go for them….You guys have given me quite a few of these 🙂

I had finally filtered it to selecting from these Five

  1. Ambika Cotton
  2. Avanti Feeds
  3. Capital First
  4.  Nirlon
  5. Kaveri Seed
I have decided that one of Pushkar’s three Choices,Kaveri Seed deserves this years TAP GAP 2016 gauravblog hamper
It’s already up 20% inside two months and we have 10 months to go in 2016 & I’m quite sure that many from the remaining  100 entries too will outperform & as always I promise to also reward the gauravblog hamper to  the one whose entry gains the highest % in 2016 as at closing December 31, 2016….unless it’s Pushkar again scoring on one of  his other two entries,Larsen & Toubro or Firstsource Solutions !  🙂
Kaveri Seed is a Debt Free  & Cash Rich ( Rs 345 crs at December 31,2015) dividend paying company  which has had a tough drop last year .In fact a year ago in March 2015 it was a strong Rs 1077 (52 Week High) and since then dropped to Rs 300 in January this year on the back of two consecutive poor Monsoon that lowered farm income & the Company had to write off more no cotton seed inventory ,largely maize.Q 2 FY 15 saw a bottomline loss of Rs 48 crs on account of this.Also Royalty Dispute with Monsanto remains an unresolved issue for the Industry
A good Monsoon in 2016 will quickly push this Company back into Orbit….it already has got a push with Government Panel proposing a national uniform price for Bt Cotton for 2016 believed to be Rs 800 per 450 gms Bt Cotton packet,incl of trait or license fees of Rs 49.These fees are 74% less than prevailing.It is awaiting acceptance by  the Ministry of Agriculture.This should also help remove Royalty overhang.FY 15 Royalty was Rs 159 crs on Sales of Rs 1161 crs.In FY 16 for the nine months the Company has provided just Rs 37.53 crs as directed by State Governments while the actual liability as per agreement with Service Provide Monsanto is Rs 102.51 crs creating a shortfall of Rs 64.55 crs.The matter is pending in Court between National Seed Association of India & Monsanto which will first decide if Government of India indeed has a right to intervene in fixing MSP & Trait Value…If Government wins then Kaveri Seed is also entitled to get a refund of Rs 200 crs from Monsanto for excess Royalty paid till 2015.If  Monsanto triumps then Kaveri needs to pay out as of date just Rs 65 crs underprovided.It is Debt Free & has Cash Reserves of @ Rs 345 crs as on December 31,2015 ….but whoever wins it will yet be a win win for the Industry & Kaveri as there will be clarity on Pricing & Royalty….Problem is that Monsanto through it’s Indian JV with  Maharashtra based Mahyco,Mahyco Monsanto Biotech has threatened to hold back newer technologies & also re-evaluate it’s presence in India if the Government does not roll back the Plan to cut Bt Cotton Trait Value by 70%….In my view India is too big a Market for Monsanto to ignore & there will be a resolution to this issue   
Another Development is a Forensic Audit ordered by SEBI in December 2015 to be conducted by CA Firm  Sarath & Associates based in Hyderabad
Company has got a National Footprint with  Brand Loyalty in a high barrier industry   where it takes strong investment in R & D for seeds and a lead time of 7 to 8 years to commercial production .Q 1 April to June Quarter  in any FY is always the crucial quarter as Farmers buy seeds to sow just before Monsoon sets in.Q 1 FY 15 saw Sales of Rs 664 crs down from Rs 827 crs in Q 1 FY 14 & even lower than the Rs 736 crs in Q 1 in FY 13.FY 15 saw 8.4 m packets sold while FY 16 is expected to close under 6 m.FY 17 should see a 20% to 25% climb back.
Market Cap is Rs 1158 crs at Rs 390 =>  @ One Year Sales…..Book at 31/12/2015 was @ Rs 133 on a Networth of @ Rs 920 crs
Of course there is always the global resentment for increasing use of hybrid seed technology,especially Bt Cotton  & for the Monopoly of Monsanto in this and their dictating terms ….that is for another debate though
Here is the List of all 101 Entries and how they have performed till date from your recommended price or  January 15,2016 closing taken if lower
Sr No. Scrip Name CMP (Rs) Inv. Price (Rs) % Change
1 Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd 150.4 212.2 -29
2 Alicon Castalloy Limited 267.1 302.4 -12
3 Ambika Cotton Mills Ltd 838.25 816.25 3
4 Aptech Ltd 56.8 61.5 -8
5 Arrow Coated Products Ltd 484 683.75 -29
6 Arrow Textiles Ltd 37.5 49.5 -24
7 Associated Alcohols and Breweries Ltd 176.3 183.3 -4
8 Aurobindo Pharma Ltd 701.5 814.75 -14
9 Avanti Feeds Ltd 402.5 383.5 5
10 Bambino Agro Industries Ltd (2) 97.95 127 -23
11 Batliboi Ltd 20.5 24 -15
12 Bhandari Hosiery Exports Ltd* 5.42 4.77 14
13 Bhilwara Spinners Ltd 14.25 14.6 -2
14 Binny Ltd 97 101 -4
15 Biofil Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals Ltd 6.42 11.35 -43
16 Biopac India Corporation Ltd 13.65 17.85 -24
17 Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances Ltd 186.3 241.1 -23
18 Capital First Ltd 375.85 381.55 -1
19 Capri Global Capital Limited 143 183 -22
20 Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd 235.1 254.3 -8
21 LT FOODS LTD 200 238.1 -16
22 Deccan Gold Mines Ltd 35.15 35.5 -1
23 Donear Industries Ltd 24.9 28.9 -14
24 Ester Industries Ltd 45.35 65.25 -30
25 Future Consumer Enterprise Limited 21.4 21.8 -2
26 Force Motors Ltd 2628 2,658.00 -1
27 First Source Solutions Ltd 34.45 35 -2
28 Gujarat Borosil Ltd 76.8 70.85 8
29 Shree Hanuman Sugar & Industries Ltd 1.11 1.21 -8
30 Heritage Foods Limited 527 526.5
31 Himachal Futuristic Communications Ltd 17.7 19.1 -7
32 Hitachi Home and Life Solutions (India) Ltd 1165 1,087.20 7
33 IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd 73.45 80.05 -8
34 Indian Acrylics Ltd 11.76 10.54 12
35 Inox Wind Ltd 292.6 317.7 -8
36 Ion Exchange India Ltd 283 377.7 -25
37 Intrasoft Technologies Ltd 322.1 327.4 -2
38 IVP 88 102.5 -14
39 Jagran Prakashan Ltd 155.65 155.25 0
40 JK Paper Ltd 42.95 45.95 -7
41 JLA Infraville Shoppers Ltd 11.58 15.99 -28
42 Kama Holdings 1250 1,345.75 -7
43 Kaya Ltd 866 1,041.75 -17
44 Kisan Mouldings Ltd 19.45 21.3 -9
45 Kitex Garments Ltd 412.7 583.2 -29
46 Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd 667.35 675.95 -1
47 Kaveri Seed Company Ltd 390.15 324.75 20
48 Kwality Ltd 102.45 108.4 -5
49 Lakshmi Overseas Industries Ltd 15 17.1 -12
50 Lincoln Pharmaceuticals Lyd 163.5 223.9 -27
51 Lanco Infratech Ltd 5.44 6.25 -13
52 Larsen and Toubro Ltd 1193.75 1,106.00 8
53 Manpasand Beverages Ltd 436 448.5 -3
54 Max Financial Services Ltd 320.5 476 -33
55 MCX Ltd 840.05 832.05 1
56 Melstar Information Technologies Ltd 6.27 8.14 -23
57 MIC Electronics Ltd 19.65 20.45 -4
58 Morepen Laboratories Ltd 27.75 28.2 -2
59 MPS Ltd 665 716 -7
60 Majestic Research Services and Solutions Ltd 65.5 76.3 -14
61 Multibase India Ltd 203 228.3 -11
62 Natural Capsules Ltd 92 133.2 -31
63 NCL Industries Ltd 96.2 120 -20
64 Nirlon Ltd 192 177.4 8
65 Odyssey Technologies Ltd 29.5 41.05 -28
66 Pincon Spirit Ltd 127.8 114.4 12
67 Radix Industries (India) Ltd 152 205 -26
68 Rei Agro Ltd 0.53 0.66 -20
69 Repco Home Finance Ltd 587.9 606.15 -3
70 Revathi Equipment Ltd 560 684.5 -18
71 Ricoh India Ltd 598.25 693 -14
72 Rossell India Ltd 95 116.8 -19
73 Reliance Power Ltd 46.7 51.05 -9
74 Rattan India Power Ltd 10.35 10.57 -2
75 Sanjivani Paranteral Ltd 33 57 -42
76 Sankhya Infotech Ltd 26.25 37.9 -31
77 SKM Egg Products Ltd 113.85 150 -24
78 Srikalahasthi Pipes Limited 214.1 239.2 -10
79 SSPDL Ltd 48.55 58.45 -17
80 Stylam Industries Ltd 169.8 188.2 -10
81 Subex Ltd 9.38 10.3 -9
82 Sunil Healthcare Ltd 96.3 112.8 -15
83 Surana Solar Ltd 24 27.8 -14
84 Syncom Healthcare Ltd 6.25 10.72 -42
85 Taneja Aerospace & Aviation Ltd 56.8 62.45 -9
86 Tara Jewels Ltd 46.3 43.65 6
87 Tide Water Oil (India) Ltd 25099 25,365 -1
88 Technocraft Industries (India) Ltd 199 212.8 -6
89 Trigyn Technologies Ltd 63 81.4 -23
90 Trilogic Digital Media Ltd 16.75 27.4 -39
91 TV18 Broadcast Ltd 38.8 41.15 -6
92 Udaipur Cement Works Ltd 9.86 11.51 -14
93 Uflex Ltd 149.4 156.05 -4
94 Ujaas Energy Ltd 23.95 21.3 12
95 UV Boards Ltd 11.46 21.9 -48
96 Vakranjee 224.75 165.5 36
97 Vinati Organis 394.7 421.2 -6
98 Virinchi Ltd 36.75 44.9 -18
99 Waterbase Ltd 77.65 84.25 -8
100 Zen Technologies 70.1 94.8 -26
101 Zydus Wellness Ltd 700.75 800.45 -12
*Adjusted for stock split

Once again  ~ Well Done Pushkar  for Kaveri Seed ! ~ I’ve gone with this !

 Your gauravblog hamper will soon be on it’s way to you

Cheers !

Disclaimer : Don’t have any direct or indirect interest or holding in Kaveri Seed as of date 

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