Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  1. Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  2. Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  3. Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  4. Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  5. India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  6. Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  7.  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  8. Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  9.  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  10.    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  11. All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  12. Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  13. Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  14. Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end

 

Clg  on 31/3/15 Clg  on 31/3/16 Change % Change
        SENSEX
27957 25341 -2616 -9.4
Scrip Clg on 31/3/15 in Rs Clg on 31/3/16 in Rs Change % Change
HDFC 1311 1105 -206 -15.7
Tata Steel 316 319 3 0.9
SBIN 267 194 -73 -27.3
ITC 325 328 3 0.9
Lupin 2007 1480 -527 -26.3
BHEL 234 113 -121 -51.7
LT 1719 1216 -503 -29.3
Axis Bank 560 444 -116 -20.7
ICICI Bank 315 236 -79 -25.1
Tata Motors 549 386 -163 -29.7
Reliance 824 1045 221 26.8
Maruti Suzuki 3699 3719 20 0.5
TCS 2547 2516 -31 -1.2
Coal India 362 292 -70 -19.3
Infy * 1109 1217 108 9.7
M & M 1187 1209 22 1.9
Sun Pharma 1022 819 -203 -19.9
Dr Reddy 3487 3034 -453 -13.0
ONGC 306 214 -92 -30.1
Asian Paints 808 868 60 7.4
Bharti Airtel 393 350 -43 -10.9
Hero Motocorp 2642 2943 301 11.4
Cipla 711 512 -199 -28.0
Wipro 627 563 -64 -10.2
HDFC Bank 1022 1071 49 4.8
GAIL 388 356 -32 -8.2
Adani Ports 308 247 -61 -19.8
Bajaj Auto 2017 2406 389 19.3
Hin Unilever 872 869 -3 -0.3
NTPC 147 128 -19 -12.9
* March 31,2015 Price was Rs 2217 & adjusted for 1:1  bonus on 15/6/2015

Any Trend Bets for FY 17 ?

So Where’s your Monies going to be ?

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