Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

“Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

“Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

 & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

Cheers !

Equity ~Life Changers or Life Maimers ?

Equity ~Life Changers or Life Maimers ?

This Thought was inspired by a Whatsapp Forward received this morning titled Power of Equity .It listed many Life Changing Wealth Creators that grew many fold from just Rs 10000 invested in each  & carried a concluding Message in Capitals ” INVEST WISELY WITH LOTS OF PATIENCE “

This was the List & I’m assuming the Years & CAGR Maths is correct with Dividends not being considered :

  1. Eicher Motors-1992 => Rs 80 lakhs
  2. Asian Paints-1986 => Rs 90 lakhs
  3. HDFC -1990 => Rs One Crore
  4. Brittania – 1985 => Rs 1.06 crs
  5. MRF – 1985 => Rs 1.10 crs
  6. BOSCH -1985 => Rs 1.20 crs
  7. Amara Raja -1991 => Rs 1.25 crs
  8. Shree Cement -1990 => Rs 2.90 crs
  9. Infosys – 1993 => Rs 3 crs
  10. Dr Reddys -1986 => Rs 10 crs
  11. WIPRO -1981 => Rs 400 crs

Cannot Argue with this Message for I’ve seen three of my Scrips,in even relatively quick time inside five years of investment too becoming over 100 Baggers ~Matrix Labs( early Millenium & now delisted as sold to Mylan),Mercator(early Millenium) & WIPRO ( from 1997 to  early 2001)

It is rare for most investors to live the Conviction & Temperament to hold for long & ride the Huge Life Changing Gains.Imagine if more than Rs 10000 had been invested in each of the above,especially WIPRO!

However my Thought is what about Wrong Convictions on the High Fliers that became Wealth Destroyers &  Life Maimers !

Here are a few of them ,most yet listed & struggling to revive & how much worth would your Rs 10000 invested in each of them be now ….most are Horror Stories of the past decade or a little more…sure you can contribute more…My Horror Stories  have been the Damania Group’s Damania Capital Markets to mention one.Bad Judgement Call that Cost!It was compulsory delisted in July 2004.

~Suzlon -2005=>Rs 842  &  2008=>Rs 348 ! => 92% to 97% wiped out after considering 10:2 Split in January 2008 when it reached an all time high of Rs 2300 before split.Current Price Rs 16.Promoter Tulsi Tanti is yet on board though Dilip Shanghvi of Sun Pharma Group has acquired a major stake in it @ Rs 18 in February 2015.Mandatory Open Offer at Rs 18 to other Shareholders in January 2016 met with no success.The Share Price had raced to Rs 30 from where it has halved & is below the Open Offer & Stake Price of Rs 18.Shareholders hold out Hope of Revival back to Glory Days in the years ahead under Dilip Shanghavi.So far it’s been a muted share price trading range in recent months.

~Unitech-2006 => Rs 505 => 95% wiped out after adjusting for 12:1 Bonus & 10:2 Split in June 2006 & 1:1 Bonus in Aug 2007.Reached a high of Rs 14800 in 2006 before Bonus & split .Current Price under Rs 6

~Kingfisher Airlines-2006/7 => 0 ! => 100% wiped out & scrip suspended for trading from 2012/2013 & restricted trading from June 2015 ~ reached a High of Rs 335 in 2007

read more

Borrowing against Brands !…Interesting,but Risky area opening out !

For Years ,Brand Valuation has been part of my sessions on Valuation of Equity at BSE and Other Forums….so it was with great Interest that I read the Economic Times Front Page atricle today on ‘Cos flash brands to raise cash’

Strapped for cash,Kingfisher Airlines has managed to Borrow from State Bank of India against it’s Brand of ‘Kingfisher Airlines’ which has been valued at Rs 1900 crs,that’s US $ 391 Million at an Exchange Rate of US $ =Rs 48.50 

Interestingly,Kingfisher Airlines has actually included this Brand Value as an Asset in it’s Balance Sheet…If it had not,then the Debt/Equity ratio would have computed higher….However,It’s probably because the Brand  is shown in the Balance Sheet,that PSU Bank,State Bank of India has been convinced to lend against this Asset

‘Kingfisher Airlines’ is a seperate registered Brand than ‘Kingfisher’ for Beer and Wines…Just a thought…if the Airlines defaults ,then the bank could opt to make the Brand it’s property…It would need to monetise this to recover dues…so it will have to sell the Brand !…to a Competitor Airline or a new Airline maybe !?…does the Borrowing Agreement categorically state that this Brand also include all the licenses and permissions  etc ?…what’s the hairline % taken by the Bank for this Asset value when lending?

Now Brand Value,like Intellectual Property Rights and Goodwill is an Intangible Asset.It normally is never reflected in the Accounts,because no real consideration has been paid for it…Thus this makes this Asset Class,riskier to lend against…It may be difficult to liquidate or realise monies for it in case of default

Being an Intangible,Brand Valuation is one of the most subjective and controversial areas in Valuation…Valuing Tangible Assets is a more objective exercise

Will Banks lend against Brand Value even if it is not reflected in the Books as an Asset !?

Clearly,Corporates appear to be running out of Tangible Assets to pledge or offer as Collateral and therefore borrow against…….They are resorting to prop up their  Brand Values for actual Funds leverage

An interesting Valuation and IPO assignment I was involved in recently,threw up this demand from the Promoters when we were working to price the placement and the IPO…”Does not our Brand count for anything ?”…Of course it did…In fact it is one of India’s largest companies in it’s field and has been in existence for over a hundred years !….but potential buyers were reluctant to negotiate a higher valuation that included,both soft and  hard numbers

read more

Some Wednesday Wanderings !…May’s Heat Wave causing a Lot of Bouncing !…Kingfisher Airlines Cheques…Adnan Sami…Tata’s JLR Debt woes forcing sale of TCS Shares…and our Sensex !

  • While the ‘King of Good Times’ bounces around in South Africa with his Cheerleaders cheering his ‘Royal Challengers’ in the IPL,his Kingfisher Airlines Cheques are bouncing here in India as the Airline faces more severe Royal Challenges that surely should be of a higher Priority
  • Have a look at the Times of India’s Mumbai Edition this morning…The’ve got Singer,Adnan Sami and his woes in three full blown reporting pieces on Page 1,3 and even 4 !…If you put them all together,it’s nearly a full page of Times Reporting on Adnan Sami !…They don’t even cover our PM like this ! Hey Guys ! You too have caught the ‘Bug’ Adnan Bug like his wife has !….It’s rather amusing that neither Adnan,nor his estranged wife are Indian Citizens…yet to settle their internal disputes and woes the’re using our Indian Police and Courts !…This is the beauty and graciousness of our Indian Democracy…welcoming one and all to come and use it’s facilities !….Just deport both to their own lands and see how their disputes will either be solved overnight or die a natural death quickly !…Hey ! Sami ! maybe crooning your hit song ‘Lift Kara De’ may be your prayer from out of all these woes !
  • Tata’s need to repay a bridge loan in June 2009 that was taken to part fund their purchase of Jaguar….Sigh !…yet again they have resorted to selling of part of their crown jewels !…Tata Sons have sold off 10 million shares of TCS today at Rs 627.25 to 15 different Institutions to raise Rs 627 crs…In fact in calender year 2008,TCS’s share price dropped by 44% ,twice the size of drop of competitor, Infosys….the reason was this very issue of selling pressure of  TCS shares by Tata Sons in 2008 
  •  Sensex is now 12000 and waiting for buying suckers…expect correction…the speed and scale of this 45% rise inside two months begs for it !