Schadenfreude ~ Pleasure derived from the misfortune of another !

Came across Schadenfreude ~ Pleasure derived from the misfortune of another

….came across the use of this word while reading the Huge Mess of Hydel Power Projects in Arunachal Pradesh & the likes of business houses like Jindal Power,IL & FS & Lanco approaching National Hydel Power Corporation (NHPC) to take over their projects….NHPC is not too keen….Says M Rajshekhar,the author of this report “The reason for its reluctance goes beyond understandable schadenfreude. Its solitary project in Arunachal – Lower Subansiri – is stuck in a quagmire as well 

Rather Ironic now that many such Hydel Power Projects were actually taken away from NHPC between 2005 & 2009 and given to the likes of Reliance Energy,Jaiprakash Associates,DS Constructions,Jindal Power & KSK Energy….Most of them,if not all have turned into white elephants….and the privatisation actually led to many misdeeds like signing MOUs merely to raise monies and sell the MOUs itself !

Real woes experienced were the ” absence of roads and power lines. Not to mention local protests and extortion rackets, especially by local student unions. The state government too was a factor. While it wanted 26% equity in each project, it did not have the cash needed to pay for those shares.” says M Rajshekhar

And Now Presidents Rule is being imposed in Arunachal Pradesh !  

Of Course Political Patronage & Crony Capitalism have combined in this Privatisation endeavour that’s created this mess

Remember Reliance Power’s IPO in January 2008 at Rs 450 and the Prospectus announcing the roadmap to create nearly 30000 MW by 2016 & which included Hydel Projects in Arunachal Pradesh !

Ten Scrip Teases between Rs 20 and Rs 30…any seducing you from these ?

Few forecasts of a Sensex of 30000 from mid to end 2012 have been made recently by known entities in our capital markets…that’s over 60 % inside 18 months from current levels of 18200 as we near the end of May 2011

Got me wondering …if 2012 sees the Sensex between 20000 and 30000,then what would these Ten Scrip Teases priced currently between Rs 20 and Rs 30  be priced next year

These caught my eye on any one or combination of the following criteria

  • Limited Downside from here
  • Defensive Plays
  • Strongly Recommended by Known Brokers
  • Turnarounds
  • Sector Potential

Any of you have any favourites from these ten scrips below…and any targets for them inside 18 months ? 

I must disclose that currently I do not own any of these but some of my clients may own a few  based on my advice with appropriate limited exposure and weight in their Equity Portfolio based on their risk profile

Scrip

Closing Price in Rs  

May 27,2011

Volume

2W Avg Q

Alok Ind

25.15

19.22L

16.75L

GVK Power

21.65

11.81L

9.45L

NHPC

24.80

13.20L

6.54L

Geojit BNP

23.20

0.21L

0.27L

Andrew Yule

24.00

0.36L

0.33L

Emami Infrastructure

29.30

0.14L

0.20L

Entegra

23.85

3,386

9,442

Deccan Gold

20.30

0.30L

0.31L

SJVN

21.20

0.36L

0.71L

Noida Toll

25.45

0.70L

0.49L

 

Cheers !

Adani Power Rs 127 and NHPC Rs 32….Both in F & O from today….Keep an Eye

Two Power Stocks to watch out for and that may Lighten up for a Brighter Diwali this year…Both also begin F & O Trading from Today

Adani Power at Rs 128…..Private Sector Power Player…..IPO was a year ago at Rs 100 in July/August 2009…so we see a 28% gain already…Permitted Lot in F & O is 2000 shares and the August 2010 Call Option for Strike Price of Rs 130 is quoted @ Rs 3

NHPC at Rs 32…..PSU….IPO was a year ago at Rs 36 in August 2009…..so we see a drop of over 10%….Permitted Lot Size in F & O is 8000 shares and the August 2010 Call Option for Strike Price of Rs 32.50 is being quoted below Rs 1…so one can take a 8000 shares position for Rs 260000 for a Premium of Rs 8000…..by end August if NHPC climbs past Rs 33.50 you start making a Profit…or else you stand to lose just Rs 8000…..If you buy 8000 shares of NHPC in the Spot you would have to pay @ Rs 260000….Instead for one month you get a similar leverage by paying just Rs 8000 !….and Government is planning a Mega IPO for PSU Giant Coal India around Diwali this year…..will not look good if another listed last year PSU like NHPC is below it’s IPO Price of Rs 36!

Think about it….Cheers !   

Adani Power Struggles on Listing today…saves face by closing at Issue price of Rs 100

I had warned you on July 25,2009 that Adani Power (APL) may not have an exciting Listing…Though the grey market Premium of Rs 10 had indicated listing gains……Check out my take on the APL IPO

IPO of Adani Power at top end Rs 100….Aggressive Pricing makes it an Aggressive Investment

It listed today and struggled right through the day to stay above it’s Issue price of Rs 100…Clearly there was some directed Market Making so that it closed at a face saving Rs 100

If the Sensex seeks 13000 on the downside…It’s at 15000 levels today…. as India grapples with a Drought Situation and Rising Fiscal Deficit and Significant reversal of FII Flows in recent days,you can bet APL too will slide below Rs 90

Now watch out for the NHPC Listing in early September ! It was issued at an expensive Rs 36…Government was greedy….but so are the applicants !…Hoodwinked by the Hype,the Issue was heavily oversubscribed..NIB Portion 57 times !…I have bet you’ll get NHPC below Rs 30 shortly after Listing 

Pity all those who went for Leverage for better allotments…As it looks now,and with even historical evidence supporting,the only people who are laughing their way to the bank,having earned sure interest,are the Financiers.

Valuation Props you up…Hype knocks you down….What should you rationally choose ! ?…Make that Choice when another PSU,Oil India launches it’s IPO in early September…It was to come at Rs 800…Indications are Government wants Rs 1400 !…should be easy to make a rational choice at Rs 1400 ! 

Remember that Merchant Bankers appointed as Lead Managers have the Mandate from the Government  and the Company,not from you !…and Investor Protection and Education is merely Lip Service from the Government when it comes to Pricing  the PSU IPOs !…Aggressive Pricing leaves nothing on the table on Listing for the Investor..only the Risk !

So if you are a Long Term Investor and do like the Company ,but the IPO price is too Aggressive,then it’s safer to skip the issue and take a chance of acquiring the Shares at a lower than IPO Price in the Secondary Markets in the future

Think about It…Think Independently…don’t follow the Herd ! and don’t help in the Heavy Oversubscription of the IPO at an Aggressive Price…Remember Reliance Power in early 2008 !…The Lesson does not appear to have been learnt ! 

IPO of Adani Power at top end Rs 100….Aggressive Pricing makes it an Aggressive Investment

A few observations on the IPO of Adani Power (APL)

At the Outset

The Flavour of this Season’s Bullish Momentum is the Power Sector and APL’s IPO takes advantage of this by aggressively pricing in the Rs 90-Rs 100 band….Momentum should list APL in positive territory…Rs 110-Rs 120…Grey Market Premium is around Rs 10 and Application Financing Schemes are being put in place by a few Finance Houses,indicating some level of confidence of comfortable oversubscription…Nevertheless,APL should certainly not qualify as an  exciting listing.

However on DCF Valuation it appears fully priced at the IPO Pricing band in the short term…Any move past Rs 150 and towards Rs 200 should come only a couple of years down the line when the market quotes begin to reflect what Markets understand best…. Earnings Multiples….Liberal Multiples will respect timely implementation of the projects without significant cost overruns…..so keep a ‘Power’ful ‘Nazar’ on APL’s Quotes and if there are any bearish waves in the next two years and APL dives into Rs 50-Rs 60 territory,even though projects are more or less on schedule,then plug into APL

Plugging into APL through the IPO at the Aggressive Price of Rs 100 is Aggressive Investing

On APL and it’s Promoters

  • APL was incorporated way back in 1996,added ‘Private’ to it’s name in 2002 and in 2007 reverting to a Public Company
  • APL is part of the Adani Group of Ahmedabad…This Group was founded by Gautam Adani whose education, interestingly, was only up to matriculation
  • The Adanis are symbolic of the aggressive entrepreneurship that India has witnessed post the reforms initiated in 1991…They have a colourful history in that they have had several brushes with regulatory authorities…SEBI,Enforcement Directorate etc
  • The Groups Interests are diverse…International Trading,Infrastructure Development,Power Generation and Distribution,Development of Special Economic Zones (SEZ),Gas Distribution,Trading and Business Process Outsourcing 
  • Adani Group includes two Listed Companies,Adani Enterprises Ltd (AEL and Earlier called Adani Exports) and Mundra Port and Special Economic Zone Ltd (MPSEZL)…..AEL’s IPO was way back in November 1994 when it raised just Rs 18.93 crs issuing 1261900 Equity shares of FV Rs 10 at Rs 150 each…MPSEZL was an ambitious Project and it’s IPO  came in November 2007 when it raised Rs 1771 Crs isssuing 40,250,000 Equity Shares of FV Rs 10 at Rs 440 and as of March 31,2009,Rs 786 crs,or 44% of Issue Proceeds, is yet to be utilised

APL’s Power Projects 

  • APL is a Power Projects Development Company…It is planning Projects of 9900 MW…It already has Four Thermal Power Projects in various stages of Development aggregating 6600 MW at Mundra (4620 MW,Gujarat) and Tiroda ( 1980 MW,Maharashtra) with the Tiroda Project to be developed by a subsidiary,Adani Power Maharashtra Ltd (APML) and Two Thermal projects aggregating 3300 MW are planned for developement by wholly owned subsidiaries APDL and APRL at Dahej (1980 MW,Gujarat) and Kawai (1320 MW,Rajasthan) respectively
  • The Power Projects in Mundra will aggregate 4620 MW and will be commissioned in four phases (Phase I & II : 4 * 330 MW…Phase III : 2* 660 MW…Phase IV : 3* 660 MW) from July 2009 to April 2012 while the Power Poject in Tiroda will aggregate 1980 MW ( 3* 660 MW) to be commissioned from July 2011 to April 2012
  • Power Equipment Supply and Machinery Contracts are being executed by several Chinese Companies

APL’s IPO

  • ICRA has assigned IPO Grade 3 to this IPO indicating ‘average fundamentals’…Gradings are from 1 to 5 ,with 5 being the best
  • APL is pricing this IPO in the Rs 90-Rs 100 range…ten times face value at the top end 
  • Issue will open on July 28,2009 and close on July 31,2009
  • IPO will raise Rs 3016.52 crs at top end price Rs 100…It is issuing 301,652,031 Equity Shares that constitutes 13.84% of the post paid Capital of Rs 2180 crs
  • There are Eight Book Running Lead Managers for this IPO…all the leading names….all wolves run in a pack !
  • Mundra Phase IV and Tiroda Power Plants aggregating 3960 MW require a funding of Rs 18223 crs,of which the APL IPO will contribute Rs 2193 crs…Rs 1153 crs for Mundra and Rs 1040 crs for the equity contribution to subsidiary Adani Power Maharashtra Ltd (APML),which is to develop Tiroda…This means the remaining Rs 823 crs of IPO Proceeds will be for General Corporate Purposes…Now that’s a huge amountIFCI has been appointed to monitor end use of the IPO Funds…a lot can flow under ‘General Corporate Purposes’ 
  • Incidentally APML has alloted shares at par face value of Rs 10…. On January 15,2008,it alloted 37,500,000 Equity Shares to Millennium Developers for Rs 37.50 crs…then It issued shares,twice this year to Somerset Fund…3.3 crs shares for Rs 33 crs on March 27,2009 and 2 cr shares for Rs 20 crs on may 18,2009…APML will develop and operate Tiroda directly,while being a subsidiary of APL…Consolidation of Accounts will show APML earnings reflected too in the APL Group Accounts as APL will hold 77.38% of the APML Equity
  • APL already has 3737 Members on it’s books at the time it filed it’s RHP…most are not original allottes…a lot of private transfers seems to have taken place
  • Post IPO,The Promoter Group will hold 1,602,318,997 Shares of APL…that’s 73.50 % of the Equity…of this AEL holds the major chunk of 1,531,440,000 Shares at an average of Rs 5.56  

APL’s Valuation

Book Values

  • As on March 31,2009,APL’s Book Value was just Rs 12.35,represented by a Networth of Rs 2278.39 crs….Equity was Rs Rs 1842 crs and Reserves and Surplus was just Rs 451.7 crs…Rs 15.31 crs were minor debits in the Misc Ex and in the P & L A/c  
  • Subsequent to March 31,2009 and pre IPO ,APL has further alloted 36,406,933 shares in the range of Rs 70 to Rs 111
  • Post Issue the Capital will be Rs 2180 crs (Moving up from Rs 1878 crs)and Share Premium Reserves will move up from pre IPO level of Rs 792 crs to Rs 3507 crs,assuming top end pricing of Rs 100…This would compute to a Book Value of Rs 26 with Networth being Rs 5687 crsso the IPO Top End Pricing of Rs 100 would be four times it’s Post Issue Book Value but eight times it’s March 31,2009 Book Value of Rs 12.35 and seven times it’s pre IPO Book Value of Rs 14.23 and Ten times it’s Face Value…That’s high,though the Reliance Power issue was priced even above our atmosphere !

Earnings Multiples….these look to stimulating some excitement in valuation

  • APL has yet to commence commercial operations….it is scheduled to commission 6600 MW inside three years,with a large chunk of 2640 MW only in April 2012…since it has tied up Financing for this,and if there are no project delays and significant cost overruns,we can expect that FY 13 Group Accounts will reflect full earnings on this capacity…That should give Consolidated Earnings in the range of Rs 3500 to Rs 4500 crs throwing up an EPS range of Rs 16-Rs 20   and a ten multiple will give a Share Price range of Rs 160 to Rs 200…so we could say that APL even at IPO Pricing of Rs 100 looks like a doubler in three to four years even with the  Debt/Equity Ratio at 4 …70 debt/30 equity is the Funding norm for the Power Sector…APL,however, would be close to 80/20 with the project costs at Rs 28369 crs for 6600 MW
  • Coal Supply Agreements are in place with Promoter Company AEL for the Mundra Project.AEL will be importing Coal….APL has shown AEL’s Indonesian Coal Mining rights and the New Mining Law of Indonesia as a Risk factor

DCF Valuation

  • Considering that the Power Generation Business involves Long term (25 years) PPAs,it’s resembles an Annuity Model…This makes DCF an ideal Valuation basis
  • As major capacities are to be commissioned only towards 2012,APL will show negative cashflows for the next three years on account of capex spend
  • Notwithstanding that several operational and financial variables can impact the NPV,the DCF Valuation, using WACC of 11% to13% ,shows that APL’s Value would lie in the range of Rs 75 to Rs 125….IPO Pricing Band of Rs 90-Rs 100 thus leaves nothing much on the table if DCF Valuation is considered

Peer Group

  • Based on Book Values,APL is priced higher than NTPC and Reliance Power
  • Using Market Cap/MV parameter, APL at Rs 3.30 crs/MW keeps up with it’s Peers
  • It’s Earnings Multiples of 5 for FY 13 Earnings that’s stirring some excitement in APL….APL’s commissioning of 6600 MW by 2012 will temporarily eclipse Reliance Power,which will be able to unleash greater capacities only by 2014/5…and Reliance Power quotes at Rs 170   

Coal Supply and Power Purchase Agreements

  • Mundra Project is being fueled by Imported Coal through AEL…APL has listed AEL’s Indonesian Mining Rights and the New Mining Law in Indonesia as a risk Factor
  • Tiroda Project will be fueled by domestic Coal. APML has also received letters from Mahanadi Coalfield and South Eastern Coalfields and Western Coalfields for specifed Coal Committments subject to conditions.APML  has also been allocated Mining Rights by the government for it’s Tiroda project…APML has no experience in Coal Mining and the allocation is subject to fulfillment of several conditions 
  • Power Purchase Agreements have been signed with State Electricity Bodies for 4744 MW of the 6600 MW at Prices beginning at Rs 2.35/kWh in the first year to Rs 3.47/kWh in the 25th year
  • Merchant Power Tariffs are currently much higher at Rs 6-Rs 6.50/kwh as Gujarat and Maharashtra,India’s highest Industrial Growth States,remain power deficit States…they will drop as Power Supply and Demand Imbalance reduces over the years

Conclusion

I’m not a great fan of the Adanis and moreover this aggressive IPO pricing is a hurdle in unconditionally recommending it for subscription …to be fair,it’s not crazy like the Rs 450 Pricing of Reliance Power’s IPO in Feb 2008

Another reservation…..With BHEL overloaded with orders and not able to ramp up it’s capacities fast enough,APL may have had little choice in opting for Chinese Contractors….So there are reservations even on quality and execution issues…It would be a first time in India ,on scale,that Chinese Companies would be engaged in our Power Sector,for setting up, both, sub critical and super critical coal based thermal plant technologies and equipment

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