Equity Meltdown~Pulling out or Putting In!?

Equity Meltdown~Pulling out or Putting In!?

Answer this to define yourself ~ your Investment Mindset now &  your Risk Profile in general  ?

The Question should be surely in your Mind right Now as continuing Global Meltdown forces India Meltdown too with the Nifty & Sensex sinking over 3.3% today to go sub 7000 & 23000 respectively ~ down 23% in 11 months from the highs of  9119 & 30025  in the first week of  March 4,2015

Had warned you’ll in December 2014 that 2015 will be Volatile & Vulnerable and reiterated it several times in 2015….stated that 2016 looks more ominous

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EXIT POLLS…EXIT MARKETS ?

What’s got this Sensex so excited that it surged 50% from 8000 to 12000 in two months !?

Earnings ? Elections ?…..what’s so exciting ?

Nana Chudasama’s Banner on Marine Drive in Mumbai states ” EXCITING ELECTIONS…SURPRISES,SHOCKS,SUICIDES”…….Surely you don’t find Suicides exciting ! 

Barely had the Fifth and Final Phase of Polling closed yesterday,several Exit Polls came out fast….predictably predicting a fractured verdict…with neither UPA nor the NDA Alliance showing any significant lead….Amusingly,many Politicians,like the Communist Karat and the Samajwadi Mulayam gave sound bytes that they don’t believe in Exit Polls….The real verdict is day after tomorrow…on Saturday….when our stock markets are closed…so how will they open on Monday ?

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Sensex and Nifty up 50% in Six Months !…Where to now !

On September 27,2008,seven months ago the Sensex was 13000 and I had put up a contrarion blog http://www.gauravblog.com/?tag=contrarion-investment-strategy

I had said the Sensex is moving towards a Distress Zone and will break below 10000 to provide a great opportunity to build wealth over the coming years…so one should bring in Fresh funds to top up their portfolios and not sell 

Just a month later,on October 27,2009 the Sensex dropped below 8000,having begun the month at 13000 levels….from there,six months later on May 4,2009 it is kissing 12000,a rise of 50 % !

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Don’t Short this Market !..you’re up against Momentum driven by Liquidity

Don’t Short this Market !

Fundamentals and Valuations are being shrugged of by Increasing Liquidity and Inflows…This momentum is driving the Nifty and Sensex to new recent highs

Two Leading Broking Houses have literally overnight turned very bullish and talk of a Sensex range of 12500 to 14500 in the near term

Maybe they know where the Inflows are being sourced from and are possibly guiding them in !…Is there a connection with the outflows from Swiss Banks as the Swiss are gearing up to be more transperant and disclose names of beneficiaries of deposits if they suspect these deposits have not been disclosed to Tax authorities in the Country from where these Depositors originate !

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Sudden Fall in Equities soon !? I can Sense and Feel it…Better Hedge Equities Right away

As Wall Street slaps Washington,Dalal Street will damn Delhi too….It’s been perceived as a STIMU-LIE Package in both countries

Yesterday the DOW teetered more towards the Edge clsoing at 7466,the lowest in six years

It’s just past 2.30 pm in Mumbai and the Sensex and Nifty are struggling to stay over 8800 and 2700 respectively

I can sense and feel that soon,the Dow may just plunge 500 to 1000 points in a Day soon…we will follow as we too will test October 2008 Lows

This Intuition or gut feel is strongly supported by weakening macros fundamentals in USA particularly and the world over in general…The IMF has already stated that it expects many more countries to come to it for Bail-Outs

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Sensex at 9200 and Nifty at 2800…..Historical US Data supports a further Fall in 2009

So we all now concede that India is not decoupled from winds blowing in the US Stock markets…The Draft reaches our Exchanges too !

So it’s going to be Dow (n) with the Dow for our Sensex and Nifty too !

Three Interesting US Indicators support a further fall in our Sensex and Nifty to possible levels of under 7000 and 2000 respectively in 2009

JANUARY BAROMETER

Yale Hirsch devised this in 1972…Simply put it states that if the S & P 500 goes in January so goes the rest of the Year

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