Sensex & Nifty at Record Existence Highs of 24000 and 7100 respectively ~ A Final Short Term Flourish coming up ?
Long Term I remain excited but feel the Sensex & Nifty has been ‘Managed’ Up past few months,especially the 7% in the last three trading days !…Imagine Yes Bank gives you 7% in 365 days in your Savings Account…Sensex gave it in just 3 days ! …and 12% inside 3 months
The rally is not broad based…the Macros do not support it…Inflation remains High as do Interest rates….Manufacturing remains stunted….GDP Growth Rate is lower than 5%….Monsoon Forecasts are less than Normal this Year….Ukraine Crisis is escalating…..PSU Banks have recorded the highest level of NPAs yet….though of course it is expected that Narendra Modi will decisively address many macro economic issues plaguing India when he will be India’s 14th Prime Minister and BJP will lead a NDA Coalition Government …this should be confirmed when the Election Outcome is known day after
However there is evidence of Index Management as the Market plays out the euphoria of this expected and projected BJP & NDA Win…SEBI has already sent a notice to an individual broker who went long Rs 2000 crs in just one single day on Friday,May 9,2014 ! when his past trading record showed a significantly smaller volume of operations !
Traders would be wise to cash in….Opportunity will present itself yet again in June & July
Investors need not be perturbed as the Indices are establishing a stable base range of 22000 to 25000 for the Sensex and 6500 to 7500 for the Nifty for the years ahead….Forecasts of 25000 and 30000 are being made by Capital Market Players in the next 6 to 9 months…Many reckon it is the start of the ‘Mother of All Bull Runs !’….they had reckoned similarly even 10 years ago !
FII Net Inflows which are currently at US $ 5.5 b to date in 2014 should strengthen to US $ 25 b this year supporting the buoyancy of our Markets in the second half of 2014 too
Rupee too should strengthen to move to under Rs 60 to the US $ decisively as FII Inflows strengthen and GDP Growth Recovery is evidenced to 5.5% and more
Check out related SCRIP STANDPOINT Module Web Posts linked below from March to May 2014 which spell out how to manage specific risks while riding the Bull and enjoying the Buzz
- Sensex ‘managed’ up 7% in 3 days ? ~ 13-May-2014
- Week Ending Friday,May 9,2014 ~ Record Highs but who’s Celebrating !? ~ 09-May-2014
- Week Ending Friday,May 2,2014 ~ Bottoms Up regardless of Election Outcome ~ 03-May-2014
- Week Ending Friday, April 25, 2014 ~ The Pause Continues ~ 26-Apr-2014
- Week Ending Thursday, April 17, 2014 ~ Markets on Pause ~ 19-Apr-2014
- Week Ending Friday,March 28,2014~All UP ! ~ 28-Mar-2014
- Elections : Equity Portfolio Protection Hedging Strategy ~ 24-Mar-2014
- Week Ending Saturday,March 22, 2014 ~ The Buzz is Back ! ~ 23-Mar-2014
- Week Ending March 14, 2014 ~What a ‘Sensex at 22000’ Week ! ~ 14-Mar-2014
- Week Ending March 07, 2014 ~ Record Sensex :Corelated to General Elections!? ~ 07-Mar-2014
- Sensex all time high and nearing 21700 ~ Consider Hedging ~ 07-Mar-2014
Am I being a Party Pooper in the Short Term ! ? Well, Maybe…but considering Near Term Risks,Sometimes it’s Wise to be Wrong Too !