Sesa Goa declares stellar Q1 FY 11 Results… yet many`Experts’ say ‘Sell’ or ‘Don’t Buy’ at Rs 350… Why ?

Expected this… a fabulous Q1 FY 11 for Sesa Goa… It’s best first quarter in history.. a consolidated net Profit of Rs 1302 crs giving an EPS of over Rs 15 on an Equity of Rs 85.97 crs (FV Rs1)… this was achieved due to higher Iron Ore Prices in the Quarter and good offtake by China and consolidation of Dempo Companies acquired in June 2009

So what’s prompted many leading FIIs to call a ‘Sell’ on Sesa Goa ?….. Prices have eased off and China is expected to slowdown offtake…. moreover it is widely expected that the Government will introduce a Special Tax on Windfall Profits just as has been proposed in Australia or may raise royalty rates…. and may even take an extreme step of curtailing or banning exports of iron ore…. Moreover Sesa Group is facing an investigation from the Serious Fraud Investigation Office for mismanagement, malpractices, financial and other irregularities ….. there is also the question of the pending amalgamation from April 1, 2005 of subsidiary Sesa Industries with Sesa Goa.. Sesa Group has moved the Supreme Court after the High Court had overturned an earlier order in it’s favour and the validity of the scheme has been extended to October 31, 2010…. an aggrieved shareholder had filed the case and Sesa suspects that this shareholder too is behind  the SFIO Investigation

In light of all of this the key question is whether  profits can be sustained at these levels in the rest of FY 11 to create a net of over Rs 4500 crs and take FY 11 EPS past Rs 50 or are we going to witness a cramped three quarters remaining in FY 11 where the aggregate profits of Q2 to Q4 would equal Q1 Profits and give a total net of just Rs 2500 crs thereabouts and an EPS of nearer Rs 30 ?

So we have a probable EPS range of Rs 30 to Rs 50 + to contend with in FY 11… At the current Rs 350 Share Price we then get a Forward FY 11 Multiple of 7 to 12 to live within…. taking a fairly conservative multiple of 10  we then get a Share Price range of Rs 300 (EPS 30) and Rs 500 (EPS 50)…. so we can say that there should be a limited downside from here… and there is a strong case for upside given such a strong Q 1 FY 11 and strong Current Consolidated Reserves of over Rs 9136 crs ( Rs 7834 at March 31, 2010 + Q 1 FY 11 PAT Rs 1302 crs) at June 30, 2010 giving a Book Value of Rs 106 that should cross Rs 120 this year as Reserves march past Rs 10000 crs… that’s a Book Multiple of under 3 read more

SESA INDUSTRIES….Unlisted but worth Rs 1600+…..much more than Rs 675 being offered

On November 1,2009 I had warned shareholders of the unlisted Sesa Industries to think twice before selling their shares on offers of Rs 600 per share

Unlisted Sesa Industries has buyers off market at Rs 600…but should you sell ? NO!…It’s worth much more 

Now offers are at Rs 675…..Please think again Twice before selling in private deals…It’s worth much more….You will be getting 4 Sesa Goa shares for every 1 Sesa Industries Share….Sesa Goa is currently at Rs 410+…Thus your Sesa Industries Share is worth Rs 1640 ! already…it will climb higher if Sesa Goa climbs higher….A recent BOA-ML report sets a target price of Rs 472 for Sesa Goa

Legal Issues…matter is in the Supreme Court….has delayed this merger for some years now…This year or next should see this issue resolved