Sadly Tree House Education Uproots Children Now after Shareholders

Sadly Tree House Education Uproots Children Now after Shareholders

The Market Cap is down to just Rs 100 crs at 20% lower circuit today at Rs 23.85

It’s Fall commenced in 2015 uprooting Shareholders Wealth dramatically from Highs of Rs 550 in Feb 2015 when Market Cap was over Rs 2300 crs ! ~ it’s a wipe-off of over 95% in Wealth!!! like you’re left with just Rs 5 from your original Rs 100 !!!

Now Children have been uprooted with Centres being closed overnight

I had blogged extensively on this debacle over a year ago on November 27,2015 with specifics on how there appeared to be cloudy money payments & accounting jugglery in the accounts.My Training Sessions cover TreeHouse when discussing Corporate Governance & Interpretation of Financial Statements when assessing Value vs Price

Tree House Education up Shit Creek & Down Market Big Time at Rs 169

Did not the  FPIs,Private Equity Funds & Venture Funds question this when investing Hundreds of Crs in the Company….and how did Independent Directors & Auditors allow all of this….& how did all such risk miss the eyes of many a Fundamental Analyst when recommending this for Investment !!! 

Shareholders Proxy Firm SES ,co-founded by MD & ex SEBI ED,Mr J N Gupta accuses the Company yet again.

They had raised similar suspicions in 2015 

Message Boards of Stock Portals went ballistic on Tree House last two years with many supporting a turnaround at Rs 150 & Rs 200 levels that it had dropped to end 2015 from Rs 550+ levels.Either they were paid stooges or simply living in Hope in the Squeeze of a Boa Constrictor.2016 actually tightened the squeeze leaving shareholders gasping for breath,dropping from Rs 175 levels beginning of the year to now just Rs 24 & falling.There’s a cloud on the merger too with Zee

And just look at this ironic Shareholder data !

March 2015 ~ 5300 Shareholders at Peak Highs of over Rs 500

December 2015 ~ 13552 Shareholders at Turnaround Hope @ Rs 175

September 2016 ~ 20577 Shareholders last notification count

Clearly Many Investors love standing in front of a Speeding Train ! ~ The Faster the Speed of the Fall the More Join in to commit suicide ! ~ Living in Hope only to Die in Despair ! ~ Sadly most of them could be Retail,sucked in by Positive Views on MessageBoards & by Experts on  Stock Portals & Channels

Earlier in 2013 I had lamented & even loudly warned on the blog (Checkout Category Kingfisher Airlines~ Machiacellian Mallyas) ,in my Forum Speeches & Training Sessions that over 240000 shareholders of Kingfisher Airlines should critically revisit their Investment before it was too late as to me it was simply an Airline that never really took off ! ~ Shareholders remain Holed up in a suspended scrip (last restricted trade was just Rs 1 in June 2015 when it was finally fully suspended even from restricted Trading after initial suspension from December 1,2014 ) while the Promoter Mallya is holed up in London ~ Tagline of my Blog “In India,Companies may Fall Sick but Promoters rarely do!” read more

IDBI Bank @ Rs 68 ~ Will Govt really let go?

IDBI Bank @ Rs 68 ~ Will Govt really let go?

In 1995  IDBI the DFI came out with an IPO at Rs 130.I had given it the notorious sobriquet ‘Instant Death By Investment !’ as the Pricing was way to High.The IPO was bailed out by UTI at the time in a quid quo pro really as then IDBI subscribed to Unit 64 at the high purchase price which was a scam in itself as it was 60% higher than the actual Unit 64 NAV which hovered around par of Rs 10 !

Then in 2004  IDBI the DFI merged with IDBI Bank  and in 2010 I had recommended it at Rs 130 in 2010 for several reasons.It did climb past Rs 200 the same year but then disappointed and started it’s downward slide as NPA Demons begin surfacing big time.

Last Month in the second week of February these NPA Demons caused the Share Price to drop below Rs 50

On February 29,2016 our  FM made this  specific budget phraseology for IDBI :

“The process of transformation of IDBI Bank has already started. Government will take it forward and also consider the option of reducing its stake to below 50 per cent” 

It was a no brainer for the Share Price to begin rising the same day from Rs 58 levels to cross Rs 60

It’s now moved up @ Rs 68

Here’s the Share Price Trend of IDBI Bank  from 2004 to 2016 (in Rs)

Year

Open

High

Low

Close

2004

62.90

115.00

29.25

109.80

2005

110.95

130.95

76.30

97.15

2006

98.15

110.00

48.50

76.30

2007

76.80

181.00

66.50

165.30

2008

166.50

180.30

53.00

67.65

2009

68.00

140.00

39.75

127.45

2010

128.00

202.25

105.85

164.75

2011

165.75

168.30

77.40

77.80

2012

78.30

121.50

77.15

111.40

2013

112.10

118.20

52.30

66.45

2014

66.85

116.50

52.95

73.15

2015

73.25

95.70

52.45

87.80

2016

90.80

91.15

47.40

68.85

The Book Value of IDBI Bank is over Rs 110 giving the relative Valuation of  0.6….that’s of course one accepts current audited GPA levels of Rs 19615 crs ,that’s 8.94% of Advances and with a 62.92 % of Provision Coverage

Government owns 80.16% of IDBI Bank and if it is open to bring this down below 50% as proclaimed in the Budget by our FM then it begs the question ~ Will they just bring it down but yet retain Management Control or will IDBI really be up for Privatisation and therefore up for Sale ! ?

Quickly the IDBI Employees have voiced their displeasure and threatened to go on strike in the crucial last week of this month of March 2016 which closes out FY 16

Why would the IDBI Employees resist Privatisation or Government diluting it’s stake below 50!?

Seriously ask yourself this ! I reflected and immediately came up two big reasons in my view :

  1. Insecurity of Jobs ~ This is understandable as Employees have huge job security under the Government ~ Bank can Hire but not Fire ~ at best Government can try VRS as they’ve been doing over the years in PSU Banks ~ Connect this with how bloated Government Enterprises really are on workforce be it the Railways or Coal India
  2.  Accountability & Transparency in Operations ~ This would open a Pandora’s Box in the Bank for all the NPAs & who really is responsible in the Bank to have advanced Loans that have turned Bad.Of the over Rs 2 lakh crores advances ,the Bank reportedly has an exposure of  Rs 7000 crs  to the JaiPrakash Group,Rs 15000 crs to the Essar Group and @ Rs 925 crs to Kingfisher Airlines.In fact the ED is investigating Vijay Mallya & his Kingfisher Airlines for Siphoning off  @ Rs 300 crs Funds from the Rs 900+ crs IDBI Loan      

So will our Government be influenced by the IDBI Employees opposition & not go ahead with it’s plans to sell it’s stake in IDBI Bank to bring it below 50% ?…the Budget already shows FY 17 Disinvestment Target of Rs 36000 crs + Precise Strategic Disinvestment of Rs 20500 crs.This would  include  IDBI Bank Stake Sale planned read more

FLY INDIGO !~Lists high at Rs 850+~Why!?~Read My October 2015 IPO Note

IndiGo has had a brilliant listing this morning at 10 am opening at Rs 856 on BSE and racing to a high of Rs 898 and  now is at Rs 860 levels at 10.20 am.The IPO Price was Rs 765

Why this Premium on Listing !?

Go through my  IPO Note below to get some sense and wonder why Retail Investors missed out and why many  ridiculed the Pricing and the over liberal Dividends

October 29,2015

SCRIP SCAN

FLY INDIGO !

IPO of InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (IndiGo)

Book Building Price Band : Rs 700 to Rs 765

IPO refuelling the IndiGo Fleet for Operations & Expansion

IPO refuelling the IndiGo Fleet for Operations & Expansion

Profitable Operations in 7 of 9 Operating Years as a Low Cost Carrier & Bumper Profits on significantly lower Aviation Turbine Fuel Prices in ongoing FY 16 indicate an Earnings Multiple of  just 11 on IPO Top Range Pricing of Rs 765

+

Scale Potential being tapped with Huge Expansion with current 97 Airbus Fleet to be expanded to over 527 (Orders placed) over the next decade

 

Major Risk

 Listing Gains may not be available as :

Indigo drained of all Networth by Dividends to show a negative Networth on June 30,2015 ! +  Offer for Sale Component is huge at @ Rs 1750 crs (nearly 60% of Issue Size) and nearly all shareholders are offloading part of holding

Thus Promoter Mindset perceived to be Greedy by Retail  Investors who tend to invest more on emotion & sentiment than on pure reason and thus response has been tepid from them

“Why should we pay a high IPO Pricing of Rs 765 just for Potential & Promoter Pocket. Moreover Bumper Profits & Over the Top Liberal Dividend Distribution Practice & Policy may not sustain into the Future!”

IPO Opened on

Tuesday, Oct 27, 2015

IPO Closes Today

Thursday, Oct 29, 2015

IPO Type

100% Book Building

Equity Shares  Offered

Fresh shares ~ 16.6-18.2 Million shares (worth Rs 1272 Crs) Offer For Sale (OFS) ~  22.8 Million shares being part of holdings from nearly all existing shareholders

Face Value of Shares

Rs 10

Price Band

Rs 700 – Rs 765 Per Equity Share

Issue Size

Rs 3018 Crs @ Rs 765 per share

Listing on

BSE, NSE

Bid Lot

15 Equity shares and multiple of 15 Equity Shares

Global Book Running Lead Manager

Citigroup Global Markets India Private Limited,  J.P. Morgan India Private Limited,  Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited

Book Running Lead Managers

Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Limited

Object of the issue

1. Rs 1165 Crs towards retirement of certain outstanding lease liabilities and consequent acquisition of aircraft
2.Rs 33 Crs for purchase of ground support equipment for airline operations; and
3. General corporate purposes
4. To receive the benefits of listing of the Equity Shares on the Stock Exchange

QIB’s

50% of Net Issue Rs 1512 Crs (including Anchor) at upper band

NIB’s

15% of Net Issue Rs 454 Crs at upper band

Retail (upto Rs 200000)

35% of Net Issue Rs 1059 Crs at upper band

  

OVERVIEW

InterGlobe Aviation is the company  that owns & operates the Low Cost Carrier IndiGo Airlines. The airlines commenced operations in August 2006 and is now one of the largest players in the domestic airline space with the largest market share that’s fast closing in on 40%. It ranked seventh in terms of largest low-cost carrier globally in seat capacity in 2014, according to CAPA Centre for Aviation . At the end of August 2015, the airline had a fleet of 97 aircraft.

It has an order book of 180 A320 neo (new engine option) aircraft and expects to take delivery of 15 additional aircraft, including nine A320 neos by March 31, 2016. According to Airbus, A320 neo aircraft are expected to consume up to 15% less fuel than current generation A320 aircraft without shark-lets, which will further reduce fuel consumption per flight.

Indigo has also recently placed an order for 250 new Airbus aircrafts in 2015 which  are scheduled for delivery between 2018 to 2026. read more

How just Rs 8000 Turns into Rs 1.3 crs in Stocks in 8 Years ! ~ Dreams can be Reality too !

😆 How Rs 8000 Turns into Rs 1.3 crs in Stocks in 8 Years by entering & exiting in just Three Stocks one after the other !

Dreams can be Reality too ! 

😯 July 2006 ~ Buy 10 Shares of MMTC at Rs 800 = Rs 8000

😮 November 2007 ~  Sell 10 Shares of MMTC at Rs 50000! = Rs 500000

That’s a Crazy Great Return of 6150% in just over a year !

😉 Take a Two Year + Break from November 2007 to February 2010 living of  Work Income + FD Interest on Rs 500000 !

🙂 February 2010 ~ Buy 2500 Shares of Jubilant Foodworks (Dominos) at Rs 200 = Rs 500000

😮 November 2013 ~ Sell 2500 Shares of Jubilant Foodworks at Rs 1300 = Rs 3250000

That’s another great return of 550% in three and a half years !

😀 December 2013 ~ Buy 10000 Shares of Force Motors at Rs 325 = Rs 3250000

😛 September 2014 ~ Sell 10000 Shares of Force Motors at Rs 1300 = Rs 1.3 Crores ! 

Now yet again a superb 300% Return inside a year !

How  😎 is this 162400 % Return in & out of just Three Stocks in just over Eight years  !

As Easy as this !

That’s the Lure of Equity for you !

Required Attributes & Skills ~ Faith in Equities, Conviction,Cool Selection,Patience,Temperament &  Timely Entry & Exit

The Ultimate Gigantic Returns have their base in that Crazy Initial Return of 6150% in MMTC !

Whats the Mantra ! ?

Look for a Big Company with a Small Price !….somebody will bale it out as the Stakes are too high for all Stakeholders to let the Company die !  

😈  I’m not talking about Kingfisher Airlines ! though it’s available at just over Rs 1 and just over Rs 100 crs for the Full Airline in case anyone dares !

🙄 Of Course Rs 800 for MMTC is not a Small Price ! but it did climb to Rs 50000 in just over a year  !

The Power of Compounding in Equities is the real Mantra ! 

😆

24 PSU Banks ! ~ Dividend Dynamics ~ Stressed Financials ~ Woeful Valuations

24 PSU Banks ! ~ Dividend Dynamics ~ Stressed Financials ~ Woeful Valuations

You will find this latest Post today on Scrip Standpoint  on my company website quite revealing

Snapshot of 24 PSU Banks ~ Dividend Dynamics,Stressed Financials & Woeful Valuations ~ 05-Jul-2013

After the recent fall in PSU Banking Shares where many lost over one fifth of their market value in just over a month and which we had covered two days earlier as below

we thought it would be an interesting and revealing angle of study to check their

  1. Dividend Dynamics  ~ Dividend Declared ~ Dividend Yield ~ Dividend Payout
  2. Financial & Valuations

These are Two Separate Tabulations of 24 PSU Banks which display their FY 13 based Dividend Dynamics in the first table and the Financials & Valuations in the second

Check out some observations too that follow and we shall not be surprised if you develop a view that our Government has no Business to be in Business ~ and that includes Banking too ! ~ daresay none of them would pass stringent stress tests

Daresay none of the banks would pass stringent stress tests ~ daresay they would argue that National Interests and Objectives of Financial Inclusion are a strong focus more than just the Bottomline  ~ daresay this would be a specious and hollow argument and they have only themselves to blame for what ails them as they pursued to further  Corporate Interests and threw caution to the winds,forgetting the lending precautionary basics, when extending loan after loan to  the likes of Deccan Chronicles and Kingfisher Airlines and to the private players in the power and infrastructure sector ~ these have all become Non Performing Assets and PSU Banks have required repeated Capital Infusion from the Government to survive and meet Basel Norms

Many of you may see PSU Banks as an Opportunity,even Contrarion, at these beaten down Share Prices & Valuations ~ Fair enough ! ~ yet heed this simple advice ~ Try to develop your Conviction on a Basis other than Emotional or just on pure Intuition and think at least Three Years and not Three Months ! ~ Or else you too may get Stressed just like they are ! 

Cheers and have a Stress free Weekend !

IndiaBulls Group is BILKING INDIA say Veritas ! ~ There’s more than Meets the Eyes on both sides !

IndiaBulls Group is BILKING INDIA say Veritas ! ~ There’s more than Meets the Eyes on both sides ! 

Was prompted by an editor of a leading Media Financial Publication for my views on the controversial research reports generated by Veritas,Canada on Listed Indian Companies

Veritas is a Bear on IndiaBulls 

Veritas,Canada released a Damning Research Report dated August 1,2012 on the IndiaBulls Group controversially titled BILKING INDIA !  ~ specifically covering three Companies IndiaBulls Real Estate at Rs 55.85,IndiaBulls Power at Rs 12.80 and IndiaBulls Financial Services at Rs 227.30

BILKING is a strong word ~ Obtain or withold Money by deceit or without justification,cheat or defraud ~ obtain money fradulently

This is My Immediate Take on The Veritas Research Report Controversy on the Indiabulls Group

On Veritas Motives

  1. Why do they come up with only Sell Reports ? ~ and that too just a hand full of companies have been covered in the past year ! ~ Are these Reports generated to create Big Bonanza through F & O Short Selling Quickies ~Yes,Veritas and Mr Neeraj Monga ! Why are there no Buy Reports !? ~ Nothing Worth Buying in India !? or you want Clients to make Monies only by Selling Off or Short Selling or Saving them from making the Investment! ?
  2. In my view this is unfair and unethical especially to other Clients already on the rolls ~ by agreeing to delay the IndiaBulls Report by one day just to tempt Altima,London to sign on for US $ 50000 a year for Research Reports generated by you so that they can act on the Report before it is issued for wider viewership ~ a question that follows is this ~ if these reports are a paid service then what does Mr Monga mean that he will delay the issue of the Report by one day !? what is he implying ? will he be issuing or leaking the report free ! to a wide audience who are not paying clients? ~ wonder if this borders on insider Trading !

On IndiaBulls Strong Reaction

  1.  In initiating Criminal action,IndiaBulls is sending out a Strong Threatening & Menacing Message ~ “Don’t Mess with Us!”  ~ perhaps only IndiaBulls can do the Messing around !

Neeraj Monga and Nitin Mangal,the Veritas analysts who have damned the IndiaBulls Group are seen as fearless crusaders by many as also foolish by some and with vested interests by quite a few~ their Motives are under the microscope in writing such a Damning Report ~ Veritas charges Signing up Clients an Annual Fee of US $ 50000 to receive such Reports ~ So Far these guys have damned the Reliance Group especially Reliance Industries and Reliance Communications,DLF and KingFisher ~ Their latest target has been the IndiaBulls Group

If you follow my blog you will not have to pay a single Dollar ! ~I’ve exposed quite a few Companies,including KingFisher Airlines ~ use the Search Engine to locate such posts

Check the tagline of my blog  ” In India,Companies may fall sick but promoters rarely do!”

When I wrote for leading Stock Publications in the past,for the benefit of Lakhs of Investors I have often exposed traunt listed companies and their unethical and fradulent  and manipulative operating and accounting practices~ Of course I’ve been threatened to be sued often until evidence is shown to the Companies and they back off ! ~ Scales and Stakes were in lakhs or a few Crores then unlike now where we are seeing hundreds and thousands of crores of rupees being raised in dubious ways and spend dubiously too ~ This Role of playing Watchdog  is the Responsibility of the Regulators and the Exchanges  ~ Let’s just say that only of late have they been bit by Conscience ! ~ otherwise only the small fry was fried ! ~ also the blatant and shameless rape of Investors by unscrupulous promoters and their network often has strong political patronage ~ and is supported by some in the mainstream  media,broking  and banking world Let me make it Clear though ! ~ I am not a Share Activist ! neither am I associated with any such Activism ! ~ the reason being the prime objective of any analysis I do of Companies in our Capital markets is to see if they merit Investment ~ my job is to make Monies for my Clients by investing in Winners and staying away from Losers or Controversial and Manipulated Companies ~ It’s nothing personal ~ I do not defame Companies ~ don’t really have to as many Promoters effect this Role well themselves ! But What I do do ! is caution readers of my blog on certain companies that I feel may strangle them ! ~ Karuturi Global @ 25 (now 4 ! and was touted by many as a multibagger on big stock channels as Company gave ads on these channels ) or Cranes Software @ 25  (god knows what it’s now)

What these Veritas Analysts are doing is nothing new ~They are Analysing and Interpreting Financial Statements and Disclosures questioning Controversial & Vulnerable Big Companies Motives and Gameplan in their Operations,especially in Corporate Restructuring Exercises that involve Valuations and Raising of Finance and the myraid structure of related entities involved that benefits from Inflated valuations that are even certified by renowned auditing firms ! ~ remember the infamous Maytas and Satyam Real Estate Valuation Report of Rs 6000+ crs by a Big Four Auditing Firm that was prepared in just one day to facilitate the merger of Maytas into Satyam to fill the hole of an equivalent amount !!! Check my many blogs on this in the category of ‘Satyam ~ The sordid Asatyam Saga’

Veritas Analysts are Tearing Up the way certain Revenues,Expenses,Assets and Liabilities are presented in the Financial Statements or simply not disclosed properly to reach conclusions that the Company is weaker or not as strong as the Statements Portrays read more