A Year Ago in May 2011 Morgan Stanley was exciting everyone predicting a Sensex of 30000 inside 18 Months while I disagreed stating Sensex will seek 16000 soon ! ~ it was at 18500 Levels then ~ A Year Later it’s broken 16000 on the Downside….and Morgan Stanley Yet keeps Predicting !

This is not a Morgan Stanley Bashing Intent ~ More to continue to caution Investors from following the ‘Big’ Blindly  

A Year Ago in May 2011 Morgan Stanley was exciting everyone predicting a Sensex of 30000 inside 18 Months while I disagreed stating it will seek 16000 soon ! ~ it was at 18500 Levels then ~ Morgan Stanley’s Sensex Report was both Misleading and Irresponsible ~ and in the absence of strong Investment Advisory Regulations,despite continuing efforts from SEBI to create them,they will get away with it 

A Year Later in 2012  as June Begins our Sensex has broken 16000 on the downside….

…..and Morgan Stanley continues to churn out Newer Reports and Newer Predictions ! ~ Damn the Old Ones ! and Move on to New Ones !…..Poor Investor Suckers continue to be influenced by such ludicrous Predictions and Reports often based on fancy and often outlandish concepts,believing that if one is Big one is Good ! ~ and with leading Stock Channels promoting such Reports and [email protected]#$%^& who masquerade as Experts who create them ! it’s easy for Small Investors to become gullible and be seduced ~ Feel really Sad and Sorry for them as they get sucked in big time…this Blog is an effort to provide some sanity with a disclaimer that Investors must seek proper and professional Investment advice    

Check out my Blog a year ago on this

Saturday, May 21st, 2011
Here is the Relevant Extract from My above Blog Post a year ago
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  • Morgan Stanley releases a report predicting a Sensex of 30000 in 18 months based on the modified earnings yield gap approach…but says it will first go down in the next three months from 18000+ levels before bouncing back…ofcourse there are caveats too

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/sensex-at-30000-in-18-months-morgan-stanley/436180/

Given Global and Domestic Macro concerns,I would reiterate that the Sensex will seek 16000 shortly….and I will not share Morgan Stanley’s model optimism that the Sensex will touch 30000 in 18 months…..I wish it does though !

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In this Context also Check out my earlier blogs on What some of those who worked for Goldman Sachs have to say about their Ex Employer…Stunning Stuff

“Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs”….Greg Smith,Executive Director and Head of Equity Derivatives Business in Europe,Middle East and Africa

Saturday, March 17th, 2012

Monday, June 27th, 2011

 

Your Mind is Precious and is your Private Space ~ Use Discretion at both levels ~ when Inviting Investment Views & Forecasts & Opinions In ! ~ and When Accepting them ! ~ for you see Opinions are like Assh…s ~ every one has them ! ~ and as it seems the Big have Bigger ones !…as big as 30000! 

4 thoughts on “A Year Ago in May 2011 Morgan Stanley was exciting everyone predicting a Sensex of 30000 inside 18 Months while I disagreed stating Sensex will seek 16000 soon ! ~ it was at 18500 Levels then ~ A Year Later it’s broken 16000 on the Downside….and Morgan Stanley Yet keeps Predicting !

  1. Same like you i also don’t believe these reports and tv channels.Tv channels sits experts for making fool of us by giving the wrong guidance like an expert .. ……. at the time of reliance buy back offer saying the stock will reach levels of 1100 and you see where it is and recently fresinus kabi oncology saying it will reach to 175 on wrong basis. Thanks at least we have the person like you who gives us the true guidance

  2. Hi Krishnan,am glad you entertain discretion…but it’s not that I in general don’t believe tv channels…they serve a useful and necessary purpose of Information Spread ~ where I entertain discretion is in the acceptance and absorption of Interpretation of such Information from those who offer it ~ anchors,reporters,FIIs,brokers,promoters,consultants,top management,bankers,regulators,exchange personnel and the plethora of stock market experts….also it serves no useful purpose to get personal on a specific Expert…so I’ve used my discretion to edit the name you mentioned…to his credit he may have been right too on many recommendations he may have voiced ~ but what is unacceptable is clearly when there is clear connivance and nexus and vested interests at play in voicing specific views to deliberately influence traders and investors to act in a certain way…as far as your illustrations on Reliance and Fresinus,let me tell you in my view Reliance is clearly being advised wrongly by those who continue to influence it’s actions and have thrived in the past on Big Time Insider Trading which they are trying to settle in Consent terms with SEBI and as for Fresinus,they called the delisting Bluff in a sense by putting instead an Offer for Sale further Shares to increase the Float to mandatory level ! …this has collapsed the Share Price that had been build up feverishly on Delisting Expectations at a High Price ~ it was not seriously conceived that facing the challenge of the looming deadline for the mandatory 25% market float they would instead issue more shares to the Public and remain listed !….these are assumptions and premises that often are not realised like in this case ~ you must understand this risk when assuming it for playing the scrip ~ A Safe way is to continue to Play Scrips on Valuation even in such situations of trying to make a quick killing on delisting ~ the risk of entering at a furiously rising high price cannot be understated ~ if the probability does not work out the climbdown can be equally fast like in the case of fresinus
    Cheers,
    Gaurav

  3. I think if people use their own common sense while accepting news rather than believing in big boys for whatever they say, they will make fortunes 🙂

  4. These guys are not the REAL advisors. They are shops and quote whatever comes to their mind as they have to keep their business running.

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