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A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears

“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”

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Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

Seems to get bigger & better every time !

Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

Sunday, August 16th, 2015

Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

@ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  ! read more

Unjustified High 52 Week Prices ?~ Relaxo xb at Rs 550 & Eveready at Rs 360

After a brilliant run up  and now at 52 week highs, both Relaxo Footwears at xb Rs 550 (FV Rs 1) levels & Eveready at Rs 360(FV Rs 2 )levels appear to be at unjustified high relative valuation at PE of over 60 and 50 respectively

Have been just asked for advice

Managed  Run Up !?

I would be wary as I’m not aware of any non linear growth coming up nor of a healthy CAGR on the bottomline in the next three years to justify paying such heavy premium

I don’t have any interest in either of them but happy for those who rode them brilliantly in the year…perhaps they should ask the Insiders rather than me on these!

“Gimme Red”  🙂

VLS Finance @ just Rs 36 because of a colourful past !~Relax it has Relaxo Footwears!

Promoted way back in 1986 by the  Mehrotra Family of Delhi, VLS Finance @ Rs 36 (Rs 10) has had a very colourful past !

A candid conversation ,which I had,with one of India’s top Bureaucrats based in New Delhi ,since deceased, in the 1990’s  was peppered with really aggressive and loud colourful language by him when it came to the VLS Group and it’s Promoters

In 1994 the Share Price of VLS Finance had recorded a high of Rs 855 !….yes Rs 855 !….. before crashing into oblivion to Rs 2 levels by 2003 !  

But Relax it ‘s Resurrecting through Relaxo Footwears !

…….but should a Minority Shareholder really Relax or should one Buy in? 

Relaxo Footwears ( FV Rs 1) is @ Rs 900 from Rs 800 a month ago and has declared a 1: 1 Bonus with Record Date of July 2,2015

VLS Finance’s Audited Consolidated Book Value is Rs 60+ as on March 31,2015  while Adjusted Book Value is Rs 180+ based on Current Valuations of the Non Current Quoted Investments of which Relaxo Footwears itself constitutes over 70% of the Value in the Quoted Holdings….assuming all such Investments  have been carried over from FY 14  with more added

In fact  Consolidated Non Current Investments at Cost have climbed from Rs 168 crs on March 31,2014 to Rs 211 crs on March 31,2015

The Haircut is a huge 80% between the Adjusted Book Value and the current market price

In fact the VLS Group holds 14.33 % of the Equity of  Relaxo Footwear as of March 31,2015 :

  • VLS Finance holds 4523528 Equity Shares of FV 1  => 7.54 % of the Relaxo Footwears Equity
  • VLS Securities( subsidiary & NSE Member) holds 4075000 Equity Shares of FV Rs 1 => 6.79% of the Relaxo Footwears Equity   
Promoters ,the Dua Family, of Relaxo Footwears hold 75% of the Equity in their Company We do not know the cost of the holding by VLS Securities but can safely assume that the  Consolidated Adjusted Book Value will be much higher than computed above if the holdings of VLS Securities too are considered.This means the Haircut is much higher than 80%  Interestingly VLS Finance seems to specialise in Footwear Domain Knowledge with it’s huge investment exposure to Relaxo Footwears and it’s Clientele that includes leading Leather and Footwear Manufacturers,Mirza,Liberty & Lakhani

The intriguing observation is that VLS appears to have invested in many listed  companies where it also has a Consultancy Client Relationship !

VLS Finance has shed it’s NBFC Status and is now a member of both NSE & BSE through group companies

Over a Month ago, I had covered it in greater detail on the SCRIP WATCH Module of my company website when it was lower @ Rs 41 when Relaxo Footwears was @ Rs 800…check it out

VLS Finance @ Rs 41 ~ Sheds NBFC Tag as Stocks Beckon ~ 20-May-2015

Now when Relaxo Footwear has moved up by 12.5 % in a month from Rs 800 to Rs 900 levels ,we see VLS Finance move down by 10% from Rs 41 to Rs 36 !

Is it that the Past of VLS Finance remains a Heavy Stone to bear ?

Whatever ! ….VLS Finance may simply not be bothered by it’s Low Market Price !…..It’s making Life Changing Gains on Relaxo Footwear,albeit notional as of now….that should keep the Promoters and Top Management happy

…..why bother about Minority Shareholders now  when it has never done so in it’s history ! read more

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